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Old 17-01-11, 18:39   #1
bustamoves
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to fold (nuts), or not to?...

........that is the question,

20lplo hand, folding nuts correct?????

I bet out with current nuts on the flop as you can see below, but is this a spot where it's better to fold given my hand is so vulnerable to the field or should it still be at least marginally +EV when we consider I'm almost always just splitting at best?

comments welcome, also for the more experienced players i ask you if you would act/ proceed differently at different stakes (higher obv)? tnx

0.10/0.20 Pot Limit Omaha Hi
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG (17.43)
CO (12.01)
BTN (6.90)
SB (32.21)
Hero (20)

Pre-Flop: (0.30, 5 players) Hero is BB 7:spade: 6:spade: 3:spade: 9:diamond:
1 fold, CO calls 0.20, BTN calls 0.20, SB calls 0.10, Hero checks

Flop: 8:heart: 6:diamond: 5:heart: (0.80, 4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 0.80, CO raises to 3.20, BTN goes all-in 6.70, SB raises to 24.90, Hero ???, CO goes all-in 11.81

Spoiler
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Old 17-01-11, 18:45   #2
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I dont play much omaha , but i think you made the right decision but looking forward to what the experts say cause its a position that can occur alot.
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Old 17-01-11, 19:33   #3
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well the day i fold the Nuts in a cash game because i'm worried that another player(s) might outdraw me is the day the laptop goes out the window,JMHO.

if it was a tournament,then i could be a different story.
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Old 17-01-11, 20:15   #4
bustamoves
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well the day i fold the Nuts in a cash game because i'm worried that another player(s) might outdraw me is the day the laptop goes out the window,JMHO.

if it was a tournament,then i could be a different story.
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Old 18-01-11, 10:58   #5
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If it comes blank you can't lose, it will come blank,blank on turn river enough to make this profitable and that changes at no stakes.

I haven't looked at the spoilered part but I'm guessing your up against some kind of 2 pair and straight/flushdraw combo hands and maybe lower straights as well as the nuts. So to clarify it comes non heart or 7/9/10 without the board pairing enough to make it an auto call.
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Old 18-01-11, 11:57   #6
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Given the fact that you've 80c in of the 20 that it'd take to call, I think you can definitely find a better spot to get the loot in. You should be chopping the pot at best in this situation and will have to dodge about half the deck, so it's just not worth the risk involved. Unless you're at a table of absolute monkeys this is a fold.
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Old 19-01-11, 06:40   #7
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you're not worried about getting outdrawn, you're worried that you are drawing dead to scoop the pot. You're probably up against at least another straight plus flush draws and full house draws.
The thing is, it's pretty much a certainty that someone else has a straight, but, if it's the short stack that has it, you could be live against the other bigger stacks for the bigger side pots. Also, if someone else does have the straight, you're at best chopping, but if there's so much excess money in the middle (from the flush draws and sets) it could mean chopping is actually the same as winning a decent sized pot. Funnily enough, in these spots, I'd be more inclined to fold if it was 3 handed, but since there's 4 in the pot, you're hoping one person has 79 and the other two have either a naked flush draw or a set, or better still, they both have flush draws or they bother have sets.
Personally, I'd gamble here, but I wouldn't fault anyone for folding.

Also, it's worth saying, in spots like these, often it's better to check the flop. Firstly, you get to see how the action develops, and if it goes a certain way, you can get it all in with a ch-raise on the flop. Along with this, you're not too displeased with seeing a free/cheap turn card. If the card doesn't come down a heart/board pair/higher straight card, you can happily get it all in because all the draws have one card to hit as opposed to two.
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Old 19-01-11, 07:25   #8
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I'd get it all in. I think the shortstacks can have a range of hands here. I expect SB to have the nuts almost always. regardless I think you've enough equity to call here, but you should probably run it through pro poker tools to check it out.
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Old 20-01-11, 16:01   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NuckChorris View Post
Given the fact that you've 80c in of the 20 that it'd take to call, I think you can definitely find a better spot to get the loot in. You should be chopping the pot at best in this situation and will have to dodge about half the deck, so it's just not worth the risk involved. Unless you're at a table of absolute monkeys this is a fold.

I don't play much Omaha so I'm not sure if you are right or wrong but it seems like you have a very good argument for folding.

Probably a stupid question but if hero had top set with no flush/straight draw in this spot would that also be a fold? Say AxKx8x8x
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Old 20-01-11, 17:10   #10
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Originally Posted by gorrrr72 View Post
I don't play much Omaha so I'm not sure if you are right or wrong but it seems like you have a very good argument for folding.

Probably a stupid question but if hero had top set with no flush/straight draw in this spot would that also be a fold? Say AxKx8x8x
Nope. Think top set is getting the odds here. He'd only be worried about someone else also having a set. People with lower sets/two pair shouldn't be getting it in unless they also have a straight or flush draw. Therefore, top set is always all-in 4-ways imo.
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Old 20-01-11, 17:57   #11
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I think I'm folding top set here due to the fact that several of my outs may be dead and I'm 100% behind atm
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Old 20-01-11, 18:19   #12
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The way the action went, because of the stack sizes people's ranges are considerably wider than they should be, given we may have a 4 way all in pot

CO can get aggressive with only 60bb, BB Can call all in with anything, and SB can overcall with a set or the naked NFD because its going multiway and you'll pretty much always have the right price with hands drawing to the nuts

CO having 60bb is pretty scary though, if he had more like 30-40 I think this is a getin for sure, as it widens everybodsy ranges a bit more, as it is, I think its pretty close
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Old 20-01-11, 18:44   #13
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i think its the correct fold as if u take all factors into account:
1. u only have 1 invested
2. ul be calling off all your stack at best a chop in a multi way pot like this u cant be the only one with the nuts.
3. heart comes the turn ur drawing dead.

theres always a better spot to get it in, alot can be said for the hand as if u have 9x7x6x8x ur auto snapping .
good fold so many players look at this and say u cant fold the nuts , thats why there broke.
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Old 20-01-11, 21:18   #14
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fwiw, the fact you 'only' have 1eur invested has no mathematical relevance whatsoever.

The more I think about it, the more I think it's a call. It's 4 way, I think there's enuf value to make it a call (but I still wouldn't really fault anyone for folding)
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Old 20-01-11, 23:11   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by donk magnet View Post
i think its the correct fold as if u take all factors into account:
1. u only have 1 invested
2. ul be calling off all your stack at best a chop in a multi way pot like this u cant be the only one with the nuts.
3. heart comes the turn ur drawing dead.

theres always a better spot to get it in, alot can be said for the hand as if u have 9x7x6x8x ur auto snapping .
good fold so many players look at this and say u cant fold the nuts , thats why there broke.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
this was/is exactly my thinking.

btw wrt GOWL, i think the fact that i have only .80 invested is completely relevant. at the end of the day i wont be/cant be losing much EV folding here and if it does mathematiclly turn out to be +EV its surely marginal and will also be high variance (not that thats such a huge factor but something that edges me still more towards the fold)
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Old 25-01-11, 03:53   #16
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Originally Posted by bustamoves View Post
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
this was/is exactly my thinking.

btw wrt GOWL, i think the fact that i have only .80 invested is completely relevant. at the end of the day i wont be/cant be losing much EV folding here and if it does mathematiclly turn out to be +EV its surely marginal and will also be high variance (not that thats such a huge factor but something that edges me still more towards the fold)
mathematically, it is not relevant (psychologically, maybe it is) . Your pot odds are what are relevant, not the money you have invested in the pot.
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