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Old 06-10-15, 07:39   #61
Raoul Duke III
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Originally Posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
Kavanagh puts Labour on 7 seats based on most recent poll.
I'd buy the overs on that although I doubt anyone's interested.

Surely the 'I support the government' bloc would have good transferrability between their candidates?
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Old 06-10-15, 07:42   #62
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Kavanagh puts Labour on 7 seats based on most recent poll.
His previous forecast (10 days before) was 14 seats.

I'll also take the 11.5 bet if you like.
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Old 06-10-15, 08:21   #63
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His previous forecast (10 days before) was 14 seats.

I'll also take the 11.5 bet if you like.
Oh look at mr smartypants with his not making a bet based on loosely scanning one blogpost. No, i'm fine with just shippaging the loots to horatio in time.
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Old 06-10-15, 16:58   #64
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This of course is a very rough model and it cannot take appropriate account of the fact that changing support levels between elections tend to vary geographically. Thus constituency support estimates for different parties/groupings will be over-estimated in some constituencies and under-estimated in others, but the expectation would be that the overall national seat figures figures estimated will be relatively close to the true level, given that over-estimates in certain constituencies should be offset by under-estimates in others. For instance, a seat predicted for a party/grouping in a constituency in this analysis might not pan out due to that party not doing as well in that constituency as predicted by the constituency support estimates. But, if that party/grouping is not doing as well as expected in that constituency, they must be doing better than expected in another constituency, where they could pick up a seat in a case where the model does not predict one for that party (or one more seat than the number(s) predicted in the model).

Thats Kavanaghs own disclaimer copied from his blog.

But, if you consider SF for instance, with just one candidate in each constituency, it is much more likely a bad showing in one area will result in no-one elected, while a good showing somewhere else will just result in the one person being elected more comfortably, there's no possibility of a compensating seat gain.

Where they are running two candidates in the border constituencies, their vote is showing too high, their traditional vote here is an old nationalist/republican vote and won't mirror the increase elsewhere, eg 43% in Cavan Monaghan is just not on, also very unlikely in Donegal.

In short his methods over estimate SF seats, and under estimate Labours, because their vote will be very unevenly spread, as the 7, 10, 12% or whatever they get will be concentrated mainly in areas where they have very strong candidates and will be sparse elsewhere.

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Old 07-10-15, 08:11   #65
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I see PP have put up prices for a some prominent Td's to retain their seats. The most interesting is probably minister Paschal Donohoe @ 11/8.

Dublin central is going to be some dog fight. 4 sitting Tds have been selected / declared to run with only 3 seats up for grabs. Mary Fitzpatrick will also be hoping that the projected FF increase will see her take back a seat in the former Bertie stronghold.

Initially I thought 11/8 might be value but the boundary changes certainly haven't been kind to Donohoe. Mary Lou is likely to top the poll and is probably the only one sure of a seat. Her surplus likely to go in the main to Maureen O Sullivan and Joe Costelloe. The last two seats will more than likely be decided by which of the 4 are eliminated first.

Costello eliminated would probably see Donohoe in and his surplus might get O'Sullivan in.

O'Sullivan eliminated would probably see Costello in and his surplus get Donohoe in.

Donohoe eliminated should see Costello in and his surplus would get O Sullivan in.

The big unknown is how well Fitzpatrick will poll for FF and if she is eliminated who she transfers to.

Can't wait for this GE.
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Old 07-10-15, 14:05   #66
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November now 1\3.
Now 2\7.
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Old 08-10-15, 10:39   #67
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Now 2\7.
Now 1/6

It's on beeatches.

PP mailed me back. Refusing to provide seaparate lines for AAAPBP, SD or Renua. Cowardly fucks.
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Old 08-10-15, 14:31   #68
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Mar looking like valoooo imo
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Old 08-10-15, 14:38   #69
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Total Seats lines

 BoylesPPBetfair
FG54.555.553.5
FF32.531.531.5
SF26.525.5265
LAB12.511.5~
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Old 08-10-15, 15:21   #70
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Talking

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Mar looking like valoooo imo
Nov 1/8 now
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Old 08-10-15, 15:31   #71
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Nov 1/8 now
There is a fair smell of media frenzy in the air, that could become self fulfilling
Listen for Burton in the next day or two, if she was to go public (herself not sources) about wanting to stay until spring then lay Nov for all the money. Edna cannot afford to be humiliating her now.
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Old 08-10-15, 15:36   #72
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Really like labour overs the more I think about it.
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Old 08-10-15, 21:28   #73
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If its not November, then when will it be - Feb or Mar? I guess Mar? 4/1 for either Feb or Mar now.
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Old 08-10-15, 21:29   #74
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If its not November, then when will it be - Feb or Mar? I guess Mar? 4/1 for either Feb or Mar now.
it's Nov

and Labour are not happy
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Old 08-10-15, 21:32   #75
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it's Nov

and Labour are not happy
Mad stuff Ted. Fair play on FG managing to keep the plan secret until now, as presumably given that most of their conventions are over, they've been thinking about this for yonks.
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Old 08-10-15, 21:37   #76
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@Raoul how much notice do you have to give to have an election, do you know? Four weeks or something similar?
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Old 08-10-15, 21:52   #77
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@Raoul how much notice do you have to give to have an election, do you know? Four weeks or something similar?
Simply have to go to the President dissolve the Dail then hold the election between eighteen and twenty five days later if memory serves.
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Old 08-10-15, 22:10   #78
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@Raoul how much notice do you have to give to have an election, do you know? Four weeks or something similar?
Quote:
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Simply have to go to the President dissolve the Dail then hold the election between eighteen and twenty five days later if memory serves.
Sundays , Bank holidays and good Friday do not count in the calculation of the 18-25 day period.
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Old 09-10-15, 07:57   #79
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Its a pleasingly quick process so.
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Old 09-10-15, 09:33   #80
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Mar looking like valoooo imo
Feb could be value , last two weeks in March are out with paddys / Easter week ends.
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