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Old 20-09-15, 21:52   #21
5starpool
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I wouldn't write off FG/Lab that easily. Not rushing to back it at 10/3 but I think they could get the seats.
Not impossible, but I'd be surprised if they aren't around 10 seats short..
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Old 21-09-15, 05:08   #22
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Would be good TV if/when it happens
I see yer a ff man with yer watching news on the telly
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Old 21-09-15, 06:24   #23
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Can I mirror any action Hitch takes with you? He seems to operate more within the realms of reality with these things
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Old 21-09-15, 07:09   #24
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Can I mirror any action Hitch takes with you? He seems to operate more within the realms of reality with these things
Sure. €100 booked FF seats at 31.5.

You ova, me unda.
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Old 21-09-15, 09:17   #25
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I see the reformed Sligo-Leitrim constituency now has parts of Cavan and Donegal as well. That's a bit odd.
Problem is the constitution which recommends a consistent one TD per so many citizens (25,000?) overall, clashing with the Electoral Boundaries Act which recommends using county boundaries where possible. Clearly impossible to do both these things so you end up with constituencies which are 97% composed of one or more complete counties and then have these little addons from others.
These little 'enclaves' then turn into electoral wastelands because no resident of them has any possibility of being elected, and no-one from the larger geographical area is bothered about looking for votes there either as you don't want to alienate your own base by giving presents to people from another county.

Should really have abandoned the county names & concept completely in constituencies long ago as it would have made it more palatable to change boundaries every few years. (and Electoral Region NW1A has a sexy ring to it imo)

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Old 21-09-15, 09:30   #26
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I wouldn't write off FG/Lab that easily. Not rushing to back it at 10/3 but I think they could get the seats.
I've been backing that for a while now, you could get 7-1 up to a a couple of months ago.

FG polling in the high 20's, soft budget to come, I would expect a little "shy Tory" factor as well.

If they are over 30% at election time and the rest of the vote is splintered with more small parties and Indo's than ever before, FG will get a huge seat bonus.

They got over 2 seats per 1st pref percentage last time, (average should be 1.66) and a similar bonus this time could see them hit mid 60's in seat numbers and give the Gov a very real chance.

T
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Old 21-09-15, 09:34   #27
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I see yer a ff man with yer watching news on the telly
May I refer you to the thread rules:

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I have one plea for this thread - let's not get ideological.

We are here to win money.
So if you could keep your slander to the BBV, that would be super
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Old 21-09-15, 09:38   #28
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Originally Posted by ArmaniJeans View Post
Problem is the constitution which recommends a consistent one TD per so many citizens (25,000?) overall, clashing with the Electoral Boundaries Act which recommends using county boundaries where possible. Clearly impossible to do both these things so you end up with constituencies which are 97% composed of one or more complete counties and then have these little addons from others.
These little 'enclaves' then turn into electoral wastelands because no resident of them has any possibility of being elected, and no-one from the larger geographical area is bothered about looking for votes there either as you don't want to alienate your own base by giving presents to people from another county.

Should really have abandoned the county names & concept completely in constituencies long ago as it would have made it more palatable to change boundaries every few years. (and Electoral Region NW1A has a sexy ring to it imo)
Worse than that, as is, for years Sligo town and close outskirts (too small to call them burbs) would vote Labour in pretty decent numbers & the Leitrim vote would crush that

SO forget the enclaves, main town in region struggles to get in who it wants unless they are FG/FF
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Old 21-09-15, 09:56   #29
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The outcome of this election will be all about where the Labour line falls.

Next Government will either be FG LAB or FG FF LAB I think FG FF is unlikely on its own seeing as how FG LAB will be campaigning together and having Joan in there will give Edna more ways to screw Mickey Martin and the soldiers of destiny out of existence in the long run.

So far then the only market I'm interested in at the moment is Labour being in the next government.

They really could end up anywhere from 8 to 28, new boundaries and retirements of safe seats like Quinn and Jack Wall are making the 12.5 line a very unattractive betting prospect even though I think its possible they could defy expectations and smash it.
If I was to punt on it the spread rather than the line would be the way to go.
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Old 21-09-15, 10:01   #30
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PP giving most markets and by looks of it best prices BUT lest we forget valoo:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/irish-politics


SP FG/FF/Lab 14/1 at present; opposition benches would be some ghost town if that happened!
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Old 21-09-15, 10:31   #31
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The SF seat numbers are the most unpredictable IMO

They have a relatively small core vote but have been attracting a lot of the floating/dissatisfied vote though this may be waning a bit now as the election gets closer.

On a really good day they could hit 20% + and with transfers from Indo's and small left wing groups be looking at seat no's in the mid thirties, on a bad day a 1st % in the low teens spread over ~45 candidates could result in a major neg. seat bonus and leave them with ~ 15 seats.
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Old 22-09-15, 08:38   #32
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I think the after April is a nice bet, very rare that they will run the same time as a budget as people wont see the good out of the budget till late January.
More than likely its Feb or March but 16/1 is juicy.
well done, 16\1 all gone and now 13\2
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Old 22-09-15, 09:06   #33
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I think there's little to no chance of FF being in coalition. Can't see past FG/Lab/Indos.
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Old 22-09-15, 09:15   #34
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I think there's little to no chance of FF being in coalition. Can't see past FG/Lab/Indos.
which Indos though?

I think if they need 5 extras, then yes

If they need 15, forget about it
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Old 22-09-15, 09:40   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elshambles View Post
PP giving most markets and by looks of it best prices BUT lest we forget valoo:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/irish-politics


SP FG/FF/Lab 14/1 at present; opposition benches would be some ghost town if that happened!
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I think there's little to no chance of FF being in coalition. Can't see past FG/Lab/Indos.
If you are getting involved in those markets you'd want to be reading the small print very carefully.

Would bringing in one or two independents invalidate a FG / LAB or a FG LAB Any other party bet?
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Old 22-09-15, 09:47   #36
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FF might prefer a Tallaght Strategy type approach to support a minority FG/LAB Government where they can pull the plug or put pressure on the Gov on any issue, rather than be tied in to an administration where they would be a minority party and risk being eaten up by FG in the future.
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Old 22-09-15, 11:21   #37
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If you are getting involved in those markets you'd want to be reading the small print very carefully.

Would bringing in one or two independents invalidate a FG / LAB or a FG LAB Any other party bet?
Thats a good question. Presumably it wouldn't as long as they weren't part of a formal party, or otherwise that betting option - FG/Lab/Inds - would have been provided. What if they bring in Social Democrats, Renua though?
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Old 22-09-15, 12:08   #38
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Thats a good question. Presumably it wouldn't as long as they weren't part of a formal party, or otherwise that betting option - FG/Lab/Inds - would have been provided. What if they bring in Social Democrats, Renua though?
Currently not recognised as parties by PP! Grouped under 'Others' and sometimes known as 'Independents'.
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Old 22-09-15, 12:34   #39
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SF are 20-1 with PP to be the 4th largest party in the next Dail.

They won't be 1st or 2nd, and while they look likely at the moment to finish ahead of Labour, their trajectory is downwards while Labour may be recovering slightly.

It wouldn't take a huge swing to bring them near enough level, Labour's voting pact with FG may help them hold on in a few places and SF traditionally don't do as well on the day as the polls suggest.

I think it should be more like 10-1 than 20 anyway.
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Old 24-09-15, 07:47   #40
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IPSOS MRBI poll out today:

Fine Gael: 28%(-)
Fianna Fáil: 20%(-)
Sinn Féin: 19%(-2)
Labour: 8%(+1)
Independents/Others: 25%(+1)

The ‘Others’
AAA-PBP: 3%
Independent Alliance: 3%
RENUA: 2%
Greens: 1%
SocDems: 1%
Others: 1%

AAA- PBP is polling 10% in Dublin
SF largest party in Dublin

http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/ed...poll-1.2363838
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