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IPB Hero Our Conor Memorial Thread - (Horses Betting Obv)

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    It is any race I think, just wondering if the aim for an 'easier' race because of it
    People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
    Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
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    Comment


      Thistlecrack out injured
      His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.

      Comment


        Originally posted by elbows View Post
        Thistlecrack out injured
        It's a car crash this year
        People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
        Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
        https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

        Comment


          Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
          Did you read my post, you do know what does drawing dead means?
          Yes. Yes I do.
          People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
          Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
          https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

          Comment


            Tip for a horse floating about centre here
            2.20

            Actlikeacountess
            Last edited by SatNav; 21-02-17, 13:51.
            Her sky-ness
            © 5starpool

            Comment


              Gimmeabreak why don't you hop off that fence and enlighten us as to where you think Let's Dance will run??

              Comment


                Originally posted by angle_grinder View Post
                Gimmeabreak why don't you hop off that fence and enlighten us as to where you think Let's Dance will run??
                That may or may not be decided yet, I have no idea , maybe GAB has but even if he is privy to that info it is hardly something he would be at liberty to put on a public forum and possibly have quoted back to him or others.

                DP said he strongly fancied it for a race and GAB advised that it would not run in that race ( in his own inimitable way). It may have been too late for DP but it may have saved others from following in.

                You have more information than you started the day with, you should be happy.

                Comment


                  Well the only information I have is that apparently Lets Dance won't be running in the Neptune. It makes no difference to me. And it's not really going to save many others as PP and Boyles are non runner no bet.

                  If he is not a liberty to say on a public forum where the horse will run then why come on here and rule it out of a race especially when people can easily get non runner no bet ??

                  Comment


                    Maybe it would allow people to remove the horse from their consideration for the race and not have cash tied up in a N.R.

                    Comment


                      Yeah that's true. He should be charging for that kind of info not posting it for free.

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by angle_grinder View Post
                        Yeah that's true. He should be charging for that kind of info not posting it for free.
                        GAB no doubt knows more about the inner workings of these things but it was publicly posted that the mares novice was the likely target last week.

                        Doesn't stop me hoping against hope.
                        I was mainly just interested in how the race was chosen, hence wondering if the bonus came into consideration when choosing the race

                        I made my bet as Lets Dance crossed the line in leopardtown last month, always the risk with antepost
                        People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
                        Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
                        https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by angle_grinder View Post
                          Gimmeabreak why don't you hop off that fence and enlighten us as to where you think Let's Dance will run??
                          He should really walk away from the fence altogether, seems to me anytime he gives an inch on this forum people moan they didn't get a mile.

                          Comment


                            I wouldn't go on that article sure wasn't Vautour going for the Gold Cup last year as well.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by NewApproach View Post
                              He should really walk away from the fence altogether, seems to me anytime he gives an inch on this forum people moan they didn't get a mile.
                              My only moan is he made little of a post I made without offering an opinion of his own.

                              It's not like I was looking for a tip as I won't be having a meaningful bet on any novice race at the Festival but merely viewing them as a trial for next years Festival.

                              There is a decent tip for you.
                              Last edited by angle_grinder; 21-02-17, 22:39.

                              Comment


                                Thanks for taking the time to post an opinion.

                                Personally I think Lets Dance will play the role of super sub much like VVM last year.

                                If Mullins thinks he can win the Mares Novice with Airlie Beach and aims VVM at the Mares then what's to lose letting LD have a crack at the Neptune. If either of those don't make it to those targets then LD could be rerouted.

                                So you could Dutch them both for the Mares Novice and you might get the winner and money back on the non-runner.

                                Comment


                                  Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
                                  If you are asking this question then you really need to reflect on it for a few moments and consider the answer to it.
                                  You obviously read posts as well as form quite literally so I will ask the question in a more simplified manner.

                                  If Ruby and Willie feel they can win the Mares Novice with Airlie Beach then what do they have to gain by running Lets Dance in the same race?

                                  Comment


                                    Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
                                    Now that is a completely different question. It is also very easy to answer.

                                    If Airlie Beach Runs and Lets Dance does not then she will be Evens (50%), add in a few WPM back numbers it probably equates to a 55% to 60% chance of WPM winning the race.

                                    If Airlie Beach and Lets Dance run and say they are 6/4 pickem plus some back numbers it equates to a c.80% - 85% chance of WPM winning the race.

                                    So what do they have to gain by running? Well WPM improves his implied chance of winning the race by 25%.

                                    I don't usually give out this many lessons for free so my best advice is stop staring into the corner and your own echo chamber, turn around and open your mind to some more critical assessment.
                                    Its not really a lesson its just very basic maths so you can't get away with charging for that. Well I suppose you could if people are willing to pay you!!

                                    Ok so it gives him a better chance of winning the Mares Novice, I'm sure him and Ruby lie awake thinking of winning this new prestigious race, but it also reduces his chances of overall winners.

                                    My mind is always open to assessment and others peoples opinions. High on the list are Gary O' Brien, Kevin O' Ryan, Kevin Blake and Lydia Hislop as they offer top quality comprehensive analysis.

                                    They never talk about basic maths either.

                                    Comment


                                      All of this back and forth should be giving you lads a good appetite for the true test of Cheltenham tipping genius.

                                      For a mere €50, you can pit your opinions against GAB's and give him a good beatdown. And win vast* sums of cash into the bargain.

                                      Sign up today, places limited**.





                                      *well, maybe €1500 on a good day

                                      **not
                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                      Comment


                                        Originally posted by angle_grinder View Post

                                        They never talk about basic maths either.
                                        Pretty much anything I hear/read from Kevin Blake is basic math. Sort of interesting article on Rubys final fence issues here - http://www.attheraces.com/blogs/kevi...-February-2017

                                        Comment


                                          Nice to see you getting into your preCheltenham online dustup GAB. Part of the tradition here at this stage. Hopefully followed soon by your traditional ante-post good thing?

                                          Comment


                                            Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View Post
                                            Nice to see you getting into your preCheltenham online dustup GAB. Part of the tradition here at this stage. Hopefully followed soon by your traditional ante-post good thing?
                                            *post format out of my control- control c to blame.


                                            Kind of reminds me of when the poker advice was dished out on boards.ie.*** It was always done with *a hint of arrogance and disdain and *you had to take that on the chin or the beneficiaries of the advice would come down on you hard.

                                            I suppose it’s fair enough but still for some it’s hard to be condescended to like that even if it is for profit. **Gab knows his stuff inside out so for those taking the gambol his info is golden.

                                            *

                                            All I want to know is which is the best outsider for me big bet at Chelts. **I’m still recovering from Wayward Lad losses . (gawd I loved that horsie)



                                            Rd123 .I'm in to donate the 50 quid.

                                            Comment


                                              Originally posted by MikeHunt View Post
                                              Rd123 .I'm in to donate the 50 quid.
                                              presume you have my details from previous escapades, PM if not
                                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                              Comment


                                                Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                presume you have my details from previous escapades, PM if not
                                                Swiss a/c details still on hand.

                                                Comment


                                                  Originally posted by angle_grinder View Post
                                                  Its not really a lesson its just very basic maths so you can't get away with charging for that..
                                                  If he used some convoluted maths and logic would of have been a more credible answer.
                                                  You asked a straight forward question (why enter two horses?) and got a straight forward answer (improves their chances).

                                                  Comment


                                                    Knockmaole Boy
                                                    Limini
                                                    Sheelbeallright
                                                    for today.

                                                    Singles and a hopeful treble

                                                    Also a wee ew punt on A Rated
                                                    People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
                                                    Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
                                                    https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

                                                    Comment


                                                      No point continuing this debate as too many Gimmeabreak cheerleaders after getting in on it.

                                                      It will be settled in three weeks anyway.

                                                      Raoul Duke,thanks for the offer but I will pass. My knowledge of the handicap races is non existent so I would have no chance of winning.

                                                      Fair play to you for organising it there is a bit of work in it I would say.

                                                      Comment


                                                        Originally posted by angle_grinder View Post
                                                        No point continuing this debate as too many Gimmeabreak cheerleaders after getting in on it.

                                                        It will be settled in three weeks anyway.

                                                        Raoul Duke,thanks for the offer but I will pass. My knowledge of the handicap races is non existent so I would have no chance of winning.

                                                        Fair play to you for organising it there is a bit of work in it I would say.
                                                        Knowledge lol. Its a pinsticking competition!

                                                        Comment


                                                          Originally posted by angle_grinder View Post
                                                          No point continuing this debate as too many Gimmeabreak cheerleaders after getting in on it.

                                                          It will be settled in three weeks anyway.

                                                          Raoul Duke,thanks for the offer but I will pass. My knowledge of the handicap races is non existent so I would have no chance of winning.

                                                          Fair play to you for organising it there is a bit of work in it I would say.
                                                          FWIW I'm not sure GAB is correct either (well he is likely correct in that both will run in the MH race, but his mathematical support of this move is somewhat questionable).
                                                          Second place prizemoney is so poor relative to first place money that it looks to me that's it not the best use of resources if maximising return is the objective (which it may not be*).
                                                          Though would probably need to have knowledge of WPMs every runner in the 26 races to see if he is maximising his EV.

                                                          *If he is more interested in maximizing his number of guaranteed wins and willing to reduce his ceiling of possible wins to do this then its a different issue. I don't think its a simple calculation either way.

                                                          Comment


                                                            Originally posted by Dice75 View Post
                                                            Knowledge lol. Its a pinsticking competition!
                                                            The various esteemed winners of past competitions would disprove this....oh wait
                                                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                            Comment


                                                              Flemings horse in the bumper at Thurles tomorrow supposed to go close.

                                                              6s on 365 at the mo....

                                                              Comment


                                                                King blue Thurles 4.45

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                                                                  Can someone kindly remind me how rule 4 works and how is it fair in this day and age? Lost €140 to it and feeling slightly pissed off about it for some reason.
                                                                  No beast so fierce but knows some touch of pity, but I know none, therefore am no beast.

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    Originally posted by pokerhand View Post
                                                                    Can someone kindly remind me how rule 4 works and how is it fair in this day and age? Lost €140 to it and feeling slightly pissed off about it for some reason.
                                                                    GAB will be along shortly to sympathise and explain, hold tight.

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      Small little win and place tipple on Castanea 5:15, better than his fin position las two runs.

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        Originally posted by careca View Post
                                                                        King blue Thurles 4.45
                                                                        a rather monumental drift
                                                                        People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
                                                                        Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
                                                                        https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          Originally posted by careca View Post
                                                                          King blue Thurles 4.45
                                                                          Def in the top 3 worst ever tips category. Drifted out to 14 to 1. Sorry anyone who followed

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            @ GAB: Any word on when BetBright are going NRNB?

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              Friday night Fundalk bet. New Direction in the 8.00 race. Down 7lbs since last race plus a 7 lbs clamier onboard for a nice combined weight loss. Also has a nice stall draw out of 3. Currently 4/1



                                                                              Edit: oops scrap 7lbs of that its Apprentice Handicap
                                                                              Last edited by Hooch; 23-02-17, 21:39.

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                Originally posted by Hooch View Post
                                                                                Friday night Fundalk bet. New Direction in the 8.00 race. Down 7lbs since last race plus a 7 lbs clamier onboard for a nice combined weight loss. Also has a nice stall draw out of 3. Currently 4/1
                                                                                7/2 now.... imagine it will shorten further. Snaffled anyway
                                                                                No beast so fierce but knows some touch of pity, but I know none, therefore am no beast.

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
                                                                                  You are looking at it the wrong way, don't worry cos lots of people look at it the way you are doing however it will lead you to erroneous conclusions. What matters is the horses rating, not the weight he carries (now there are some minor exceptions to this but I am talking in the general sense). New Direction ran off 65 last time and runs off 66 tomorrow so he is actually running off a 1lb higher mark.
                                                                                  Yes I did edit the post afterwards at the bottom when I realized after. But would he still not be benefiting for the 7lb claimer onboard?
                                                                                  Thanks for the correction I'm here to learn.

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
                                                                                    he benefits by the claim vs last time as he was not claimer ridden on that occasion. so -7lb for claimer and +1lb from handicapper so 6lb differential. However, is 6lb enough to compensate for the difference in ability between Kevin Manning and the claimer? Also, as it is an apprentice race all the jocks are claiming so it becomes a more level playing field between all the horses as they are all claiming (notionally).
                                                                                    I agree with what you are saying.
                                                                                    But in relation to tomorrow's race New Directions biggest rival is War Goddess in my opinion who is up 5lbs for last race win plus is losing the 3lb claim Donnacha had ( Anna up this time no claim) is a total of 8lbs up if I'm right. Please correct me if I'm wrong plus has a horrible stall draw which is important at Dundalk. Still feel he has a great shout.
                                                                                    What would your breakdown of the race look like if you wouldn't mind sharing.

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
                                                                                      no you are pretty right there but I guess to play devils advocate you could say that ND is an exposed 66 yet War G is an unexposed 71 - so WG might improve beyond the differential. My assessment of the race is
                                                                                      SPOILER
                                                                                      I will be backing Bittern EW 20/1, and Multiviz EW 7/1
                                                                                      Glad you are also of the same opinion that War Goddess is fairly unexposed and will be winning more in the future.
                                                                                      One final question on tomorrows race would you agree No Biggie is in the race to set the pace for War Goddess as I fell 1m 4 is to much for him to win??

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
                                                                                        Also, as it is an apprentice race all the jocks are claiming so it becomes a more level playing field between all the horses as they are all claiming (notionally).
                                                                                        I get this part, vrs anyone that's also claiming, there's no really benefit to claiming.

                                                                                        Can you run over the ratings vrs weights part again please.
                                                                                        My understanding is that the top weight is assigned to the top rated horse, and after that weight is dictated by 1 lb deduction for every rating point. Which exceptions by the look of things (no.3 for example is 2lbs lighter)

                                                                                        So with New Direction, he's down because last time out he was top rated horse. And here he is 10 points behind the top horse. He's actually 9lbs lighter not 7 (10st to 9st5). Which I think is from being 10 points behind, less the 1lb extra at the top.

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
                                                                                          10/10



                                                                                          You were hard done by, I'd contact customer support and ask them to reconsider.
                                                                                          Not really, I am just talking about cases where the rule 4 is applied to fixed prices to return a profit less than SP even when the pricing market is reformed and rule 4 is not applied to SP. I am sure there are cases of those?
                                                                                          No beast so fierce but knows some touch of pity, but I know none, therefore am no beast.

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            Hooch you realize it's the apprentices first ride ever? Taking quite the leap of fate to back it so short, especially at Dundalk where it's so tight and easy for an inexperienced jockey to be bullied when jockeying for position. I know they're all apprentices but plenty of them with lots of runs under their belts.
                                                                                            Profit before people.

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              Lolz

                                                                                              People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
                                                                                              Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
                                                                                              https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                Was told to have a few quid ew on Vincy in the next .

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  My 3 bets for tomorrow.

                                                                                                  Gevrey Chambertin in the Eider for me tomorrow. Thought he ran very well LTO and was left in front way too early. 25/1 currently.

                                                                                                  See my old friend Jury Duty(got nutted on the line for a 4 figure day in Punchestown last year) runs in Chepstow tomorrow..should be good enough also.

                                                                                                  Was at Punchestown on Wednesday and was impressed how The Green Lady won her race (Also O Brien in the bumper was good). Mullins was pretty much pulling her up before the last. Seemed to like the ground which is a bonus considering what it's like at the moment. Gone up in the weights but despite this I think she'll take all the beating @ 2:20 Fairyhouse.
                                                                                                  Jayzus, Sheila! I forgot me feckin' trousers

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                    You can say what you want about Ruby but that was some ride on Pleasant Company
                                                                                                    Jayzus, Sheila! I forgot me feckin' trousers

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                      Originally posted by Pat Mustard View Post
                                                                                                      You can say what you want about Ruby but that was some ride on Pleasant Company
                                                                                                      was just thinking it was one of the best I'd seen when James Best pops up.

                                                                                                      Presenting Percy looks a nice bet for the Pertemps
                                                                                                      People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
                                                                                                      Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
                                                                                                      https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                        Originally posted by DeadParrot View Post
                                                                                                        was just thinking it was one of the best I'd seen when James Best pops up.

                                                                                                        Presenting Percy looks a nice bet for the Pertemps
                                                                                                        Weights aren't out yet...

                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                          Total Recall is far too big in the 15.20 at Naas

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                                                                                                            One of my favourite horses Boomerang bob killed in a fall on the snow in St Moritz. George Baker taken to Hospital unconscious by air ambulance, hope he makes a full recovery .

                                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                                              Originally posted by DeadParrot View Post

                                                                                                              Presenting Percy looks a nice bet for the Pertemps
                                                                                                              ...Was actually given this as a tip for the Albert Bartlett...Was planning to do it during the week, is there any chance he runs in this race?...

                                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                                Fancy Eljadaaf in the 3:55, he is unbeaten over 6f on the AW apart from Chelmsford which wouldn't suit his hold up style. Plenty of pace here, will need a bit of luck from his draw but 13/2 a bit of ew value.

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                                                                                                                  Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
                                                                                                                  It appears that clash is set in stone so.

                                                                                                                  He is usually very reliable when making statements about these things.

                                                                                                                  I liked the quote about Douvan being possibly the best horse he ever had but that Hurricane Fly sets the bar very high.

                                                                                                                  An indication that he rates Hurricane Fly a better horse than Faugheen or Annie Power.

                                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                                    Man I'm dumb, went into betfair to check some Antepost bets I made for Cheltenham.
                                                                                                                    And I noticed I've backed Airlie Beach in the Mare's hurdle (14th) and not the mare's novice hurdle (16th).
                                                                                                                    I blame the shitty layout of betfiar Australia and beer googles.

                                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                                      Originally posted by angle_grinder View Post
                                                                                                                      An indication that he rates Hurricane Fly a better horse than Faugheen or Annie Power.
                                                                                                                      hardly even close is it?
                                                                                                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                                        Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                                                        hardly even close is it?
                                                                                                                        Its kind of like asking whether Don Bradman or Shane Warne were the greater cricketer... the answer may seem obvious but you cannot really copmpare.
                                                                                                                        Turning millions into thousands

                                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                                          Originally posted by DeadParrot View Post
                                                                                                                          was just thinking it was one of the best I'd seen when James Best pops up.

                                                                                                                          Presenting Percy looks a nice bet for the Pertemps
                                                                                                                          Originally posted by NewApproach View Post
                                                                                                                          Weights aren't out yet...
                                                                                                                          16ilbs...Quite a hike
                                                                                                                          People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
                                                                                                                          Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
                                                                                                                          https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

                                                                                                                          Comment

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