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€25 F/O - Flopped Set vs River Push, third club on board.

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    €25 F/O - Flopped Set vs River Push, third club on board.

    Hey guys,

    I've been a member of the forum here for quite a while now, however I've been more of a lurker than a poster over my time here.

    I am determined to improve my game, and so I'm trying to force myself to actively analyze hands and discuss plays/theories etc. with the intent on improving my game and becoming an all around better player. So I've decided to post hands and take part in discussions, broaden my insights on the game. The hand is pretty long, but I want to give a good detailed breakdown of the situation and my thought process throughout the hand in order to give you guys as much information as possible.

    This is a hand from a weekly €25 F/O which I play quite regularly at my local GAA club most Friday nights.

    Blinds:

    400/800

    Relevant Stack Sizes:

    Hero - 52,000
    Villain - 49,800
    Average Stack (roughly) - 40,000

    Play is folded around to Villain on the button who raises to 2,000. Hero looks down at 77 in the small blind.

    History:

    Now it is important to note the dynamic between myself and Villain. We are both very good friends who play cards together quite regularly and often discuss theory/hands together. There is a real sense of competitiveness when we are on the same table and we are always trying to "get one over" on one other. He is a solid player, and the only player at the table who I feel has any read on my game. He has a tendency, however, to play either super super TAG, or extremely LAG; and on this occasion it was the latter. He had built up his stack through series of big hands, aggressive play and getting paid off at the right times. He was opening 60-70% of hands at the table (is not more) and was the self appointed table captain. He was taking down most of the pots he was involved in - He tends not to let go of a hand easily when playing his LAG style and will make it expensive by exerting maximum pressure on his opponents - When he is playing this style, he is capable of turning up at the river with just about anything from the nuts to three high.

    As for myself, I had been playing pretty snug so far (I too tend to have two polar opposite styles of play, similar to the Villain's TAG and LAG styles, and he knows this very well). Early on I managed to lay down JT on a board of JJQ54r to a river shove and tabled my cards after being shown QJ. This got the respect of the table and I had managed to chip my way back up through a number of small pots up to this point in the tournament. I hadn't stepped out of line so far, and had been showing down a number of stronger hands so far, KQs, JJ, AQ.

    Back to the hand:

    I have the option of raising or calling and so I elect to call (bad?) for a number of reasons:

    I don't want to put myself in an awkward spot by 3-betting, as I know Villain is never folding to a 3 bet from me, and he will always expect a C-Bet from me, regardless of the board, when I 3 bet pre. If I were to 3 bet and get called, what would I do on a A T 8r board? He is the type of player that could very easily represent an Ace, but that doesn't mean he actually has one.

    Villain is quite capable of 4 betting extremely light vs me in this situation. I want to avoid putting myself in an awkward position by committing 15-20% of my stack pre, especially if the board were to run out A T 8r. Is this too Nitty?

    If I decide to play the hand with the intention to set mine, I want to bring the big blind in, and hopefully increase my chances of winning a big pot if I spike a 7.

    Big Blind calls and we see a flop.

    Flop: 872 (Pot 6,000)

    Hero checks, Big Blind checks, Villain bets 5,000.

    I elect to call, Big Blind folds. I was tempted to raise to 12,500 to semi-protect my hand against the flush draw, but also give him the opportunity to ship it and try to blow me off the hand (He's very capable of making moves like that, especially in his LAG mode). I decided not to raise as I didn't want to give him reason to fold, and I knew he would keep firing again on the turn and river regardless of the what comes, and the bigger the pot swells, the more his urge is to take it down.

    Turn: 6 (Pot 16,000)

    Hero checks, Villain bets a fast 10,000. Hero calls.

    Again, I felt that regardless of what comes on the river, he was capable of firing a big bet. The 6 did complete a potential straight on board, and it was a very wet board with two flush draws out there, so I was in two minds of thinking before I called. One was that if he doesn't have the flush draw or a made straight and I ship, he folds and I lose potential value from the hand. Secondly, however, was that if he was indeed on a draw, did I want to get all the money in here, rather than let the river come, and allow him to get away from the hand if he bricks his draw. Did I want to get his money in while his hand was still live? I'd be very interested to hear a number of thoughts on this situation.

    River: 3 (Pot 36,000)

    Hero checks, Villain insta-ships for 32,800.

    The 3 completes the flush. It's a pretty tricky spot, as he raised pre and bet all three streets very aggressively. I knew this was the risk I took when I decided to slow-play my hand against a very aggressive player like him. From my read on him, as I mentioned in his description, his range here is very polarised. He either has me crushed, or he has complete air. He's not the type of player to make this sort of play with a medium strength hand. I knew he was trying to represent the flush, and it was the perfect card for him to bluff at (although I felt he was possibly shipping regardless of the river due to his style of play), but the question was did he actually have it or not? There was quite a bit of meta game going on here, as he knew I knew the 3 was the perfect card for him to bluff at, and I knew that he knew this, so it threw me a little in trying to decide what line he was taking here. He was one of only two other players at the table I felt were capable of playing on this sort of "level of higher thinking" and that added even more to the confusion.

    Result:
    SPOILER
    I tank and in the end make the call. Villain tables AJ

    He wasn't at all happy with my call, and argued with me that he played the hand perfectly and asked me "how could you make that call?". I told him that I knew what he was trying to represent, but in the end I went with my gut/read that he didn't have it, and I was right. He was a little peeved and told me I played the played the hand horribly.



    Should I have perhaps been looking to get it earlier in rather than play the hand for set value?

    I'm generally a very aggressive player, but lately I've found that I have had more success (less varience beats) by playing hands more passively preflop, yet it feels like I'm playing "wrong" or that my game is after taking a step back with all this talk over the last number of years that good play is aggressive play. All the videos I have watched encourage aggressive poker, but personally I feel more comfortable with my postflop game, and I have found that I have much more success playing passively preflop, and aggressively postflop. Just an observation. What do guys think?

    And where is the line drawn between playing a pocket pair passively for set value, or playing it aggressively and looking to get in pre in situations like this one? 99 for set value? TT for the ship?

    I'd be interested in hearing people's thoughts/comments on the hand? Any replies would be greatly appreciated.

    Cheers.

    #2
    I wouldn't be looking to get past the flop on that board. Def check-raising the c-bet. Given reads you did fine tho and all of us have berated friends for bad play I'm the heat of the moment after a hand. You played it fine but the passive route only works in certain, fairly rare, situations and you can lose a lot of value that way. 100% flatting his button open this deep. 3bet if it gets a decent portion of either stack into the middle.

    Comment


      #3
      Played it fine imo, pretty easy call on the river vs the villain you've described

      Comment


        #4
        Don't put the results in the OP - you will get better responses if people don't know the result.

        The way you played the hand the river is an instant call, no matter what it is.

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by NuckChorris View Post
          I wouldn't be looking to get past the flop on that board. Def check-raising the c-bet. Given reads you did fine tho and all of us have berated friends for bad play I'm the heat of the moment after a hand. You played it fine but the passive route only works in certain, fairly rare, situations and you can lose a lot of value that way. 100% flatting his button open this deep. 3bet if it gets a decent portion of either stack into the middle.
          Appreciate the reply. Yeah, at the time I was 50/50 between chk/calling or chk/raising, and I think when I called I set the tone for my play on the turn. I was also just curious whether the flat pre was ok. I was chatting to the Villain tonight and he's still convinced I made a bad call, but all in good humour!

          Originally posted by JamieCarra View Post
          Played it fine imo, pretty easy call on the river vs the villain you've described
          Yeah, that's true. Looking back on what I posted I hope I didn't describe him/his style of play so vividly as a way of justifying my passive play against him.

          Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
          Don't put the results in the OP - you will get better responses if people don't know the result.

          The way you played the hand the river is an instant call, no matter what it is.
          Apologies, that's true, I didn't realise that when I was posting the hand. Should I post the result later on in the thread, or leave it out entirely? Cheers

          Comment


            #6
            Played perfectly vs described villain. River is a snap vs anyone. As said don't post results, solid OP tho keep posting
            "c'est en faisant n'importe quoi qu'on devient n'importe qui"

            Comment


              #7
              Yea don't post the results in the OP, you can post them a few days later when there is a consensus on the best line.
              As played its a river snap call against villian as described.

              Comment


                #8
                IMO you let the hand go too far. The board was pretty wet and since his range is so big, you might well have let him in.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by Winning! View Post
                  Played perfectly vs described villain. River is a snap vs anyone. As said don't post results, solid OP tho keep posting
                  Cheers, appreciate that man!

                  Originally posted by Jules View Post
                  Yea don't post the results in the OP, you can post them a few days later when there is a consensus on the best line.
                  As played its a river snap call against villian as described.
                  Yeah, as I said before I hope I'm not being a little bias in my description of the Villain here in as a way to justify my call/passive play, but I agree once I've made my decision to play the flop and turn the way I did, I'm 100% calling on the river in this spot/

                  Originally posted by *PocketRockets* View Post
                  IMO you let the hand go too far. The board was pretty wet and since his range is so big, you might well have let him in.
                  Yeah, that is also true, but the structure for this event was fairly quick, and as it was a pass deal game, you could be looking at only 5-7 hands a level (less than an orbit), so when I flop a set in this situation I wanted to get maximum value out of the hand. I was afraid any sign of strength would blow him off. Would have been interesting if a a 9 or 5 had come on the river...possibly...

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by Sktchr View Post
                    Would have been interesting if a a 9 or 5 had come on the river...possibly...
                    Interesting as in 'oh shit'?

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Haha yeah, one of those "ah for feck sake" moments

                      Comment


                        #12
                        While in reality I doubt many fold this pre-flop you should just be aware of the math involved and that set mining in the above spot probably had a negative longterm expectation. Some math from RJ below.



                        Opr

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by Opr View Post
                          While in reality I doubt many fold this pre-flop you should just be aware of the math involved and that set mining in the above spot probably had a negative longterm expectation. Some math from RJ below.



                          Opr
                          77 is much more playable than 22

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
                            77 is much more playable than 22
                            Yeah but not when you're specifically set mining like the OP suggests. Also his implied odds are the same as in the example RJ explores but he's also out of position. In the example RJ works through it's near perfect conditions with the same implied odds

                            Conclusions - In a spot where we have 25 - 1 implied odds, position and are against a monster hand we don't have that big an edge
                            I'd be pretty confident against a decent aggressive player that calling OOP here has a losing expectation. I'm almost certain it does with the intent of set mining.

                            Opr

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by Opr View Post
                              While in reality I doubt many fold this pre-flop you should just be aware of the math involved and that set mining in the above spot probably had a negative longterm expectation. Some math from RJ below.



                              Opr
                              Love the 4x utg raises and 7bb "at least" cbet, great analytical post though, pity he still doesn't post.

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Great first post OP. Well played.

                                There are lots of flops where I can't imagine you are going to fold too quickly if you don't spike a 7. Like if she puts up the Jx2x5x flop are you really going to muck to one bet? What if it rolls off 3x3x4x?

                                You have a strong hand, way too strong v his range to only continue if you find a seven.

                                I don't think it really matters, as played, what comes off on the river fwiw. You pretty much have to call.

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by brady23 View Post
                                  Love the 4x utg raises and 7bb "at least" cbet.
                                  Standard (or at least not unusual) for the time

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Opr View Post
                                    Yeah but not when you're specifically set mining like the OP suggests. Also his implied odds are the same as in the example RJ explores but he's also out of position. In the example RJ works through it's near perfect conditions with the same implied odds
                                    Its a bit unclear what his intention was. If it was to fold unless he hit a seven then you are right

                                    Originally posted by Opr View Post
                                    I'd be pretty confident against a decent aggressive player that calling OOP here has a losing expectation. I'm almost certain it does with the intent of set mining.
                                    Opr
                                    In no way does the player described above appear to me as a decent aggressive player

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Either way I posted more to have the OP thinking about the math in this spot. Most people starting off shovel chips in pre-flop in these kind of spots without ever thinking about how marginal a spot it can be calling pre. They don't even consider it an option which means they're probably also calling in far worse spots.

                                      Opr

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Considering it's 33/1 implied odds on our call to set-mine this is 100% fine even if we check fold every flop not including a 7.

                                        49800/1500=33.2?

                                        Solid first post OP. Probably should be looking to grind more online as your thought process is probably wasted in €25 freezeouts.

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Opr View Post
                                          While in reality I doubt many fold this pre-flop you should just be aware of the math involved and that set mining in the above spot probably had a negative longterm expectation. Some math from RJ below.



                                          Opr
                                          Very interesting read, thank you for posting OPR. One question I have a about the hand though, is am I playing 77 simply to set mine, or am I able to play it a lot stronger based on it's initial strength in this spot. Late on in a tournament I shove with this hand with shallower stacks, but I didn't want to inflate the pot pre in relation to stack sizes because I felt there was definitely a lot of value at the table, and I had a very workable stack in relation to others.

                                          I'm also curious would I (or others) play 88, 99 the same? I know TT I 3 bet to try and get it in, but I'm thinking TT+ is too tight here? Maybe I could be wrong though.

                                          Originally posted by jbravado View Post
                                          Great first post OP. Well played.

                                          There are lots of flops where I can't imagine you are going to fold too quickly if you don't spike a 7. Like if she puts up the Jx2x5x flop are you really going to muck to one bet? What if it rolls off 3x3x4x?

                                          You have a strong hand, way too strong v his range to only continue if you find a seven.

                                          I don't think it really matters, as played, what comes off on the river fwiw. You pretty much have to call.
                                          Cheers jbravado! Appreciate that man. Yeah, my history with the villain definitely influenced the hand. Against an unknown player I'm chk/raising the flop and shoving the turn, always looking to get the money in before the river.

                                          If the board had run out Jx2x5x, I would have at least called one bet, more than likely I would have raised then and there when I have such a vulnerable holding in that spot to try and take it down.

                                          Originally posted by peterswellman View Post
                                          Considering it's 33/1 implied odds on our call to set-mine this is 100% fine even if we check fold every flop not including a 7.

                                          49800/1500=33.2?

                                          Solid first post OP. Probably should be looking to grind more online as your thought process is probably wasted in €25 freezeouts.
                                          Cheers man! I went to a similar game last night, a self deal pub tourney...I nearly cried...it was AWFUL. I just wonder why I frustrate myself by playing those crapshoot style games, but then they're the only live game I have access to in my home town. I'm of the opinion that games like that are only gonna bring detriment to my game...or mental health

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