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    Premier League betting

    I've been trying to develop a spreadsheet for the Premier League which is based on FIFA's international rankings system. I have spent the past couple of days developing this and I am now attempting to find the correct conversion from the points into odds. I have only 6months of games inputted at this stage but over the next week or so will be hoping to increase this to at least 12 months.
    So far most of games have been close enough to the bookies.Those that haven't so far I have below to start with. I am starting with a €500 bank roll. Bets will be made between 2% and 10% based on my rank of the bet being a 1 point or 5 point bet.
    Bets are high for bankroll size but I am willing to take the risk to start out to try and build. If I go lower I am afraid I might loose interest.


    The rankings are based on home and away performances. Based on the size of the difference between the home ranking and the away ranking I am predicting a W/D/L. e.g. >5pts Home, <5points >-8points Draw, <8points away win.
    These points have been estimated by inputting results from the past 5 weeks to try and gauge the correct level. They will probably be tweeked to find the optimum levels.
    Finally odds are calculated by where they fall within these parameters.
    Once points are calculated then the individual games will be looked at for team news etc. I'm not 100% sure on how to weight these but should be a matter of trial and error.
    Hopefully I will have 3 months of it to tweek and finalize it and if successful develop it for other divisions.
    Success is going to be based on Profit. I am aiming to have 5% profit on bets made by end of Feb.

    The reason to put it up is to try and get advise on any glaring errors, I know bankroll management is very aggressive ATM but that is all I have at present and will reload with another €500 if I feel I am running bad but the system seems to be sound.


    So week one here are my bets.

    Stoke win 5/6 Bet365 1pt €10
    Newcastle -2 5/6 Stan James 2 pt €20
    QPR draw no bet 6/4 Sky Bet 1pt €10
    Spurs win 20/21 Boyles 1 pt €10
    Swansea win 13/10 Boyles 4pt €40
    Man City win13/8 Bet Fred 3pt €30

    Risk €120
    Balance €380
    Last edited by TheRebelRam; 25-11-11, 15:00. Reason: forgot odds on last 2 games
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    #2
    Really like all those bets besides City - I'm just avoiding that game though.

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      #3
      Newcastle -2 away to United?

      5/6?

      Sounds about right

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        #4
        Best of luck.

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          #5
          Originally posted by SirRickyHatton View Post
          Newcastle -2 away to United?

          5/6?

          Sounds about right
          LOL, always sniff out great odds

          EDIT +2

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            #6
            best of luck with this man,

            I like the look of most of your bets but im just wondering how you are weighting them? You could have four wins out of 6 matches here and end up down a few pts. If it was me i would prob choose less selections and back closer to a level stake unless there was glaring value. Then again I wouldnt have the discipline to do ths with sports betting in the first place so fair dues. Will you do multilpes at all?

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              #7
              ..love looking at peoples theorys and bases to gain an edge...
              yours looks extremely detailed, hopefully it'll go well...
              Definitly gonna follow it and see how it goes...

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                #8
                Originally posted by shano1888 View Post
                best of luck with this man,

                I like the look of most of your bets but im just wondering how you are weighting them? You could have four wins out of 6 matches here and end up down a few pts. If it was me i would prob choose less selections and back closer to a level stake unless there was glaring value. Then again I wouldnt have the discipline to do ths with sports betting in the first place so fair dues. Will you do multilpes at all?

                Basically I am weighting the size of the bets on the size of the percentage difference between myself and the bookies.
                I won't be doing multiples yet, or maybe never due to the higher variance.
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                  #9
                  Originally posted by TheRebelRam View Post
                  Basically I am weighting the size of the bets on the size of the percentage difference between myself and the bookies.
                  I won't be doing multiples yet, or maybe never due to the higher variance.
                  Fair enough. Hope you have a good start tommorow.

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                    #10
                    Originally posted by shano1888 View Post
                    Fair enough. Hope you have a good start tommorow.
                    This is where I will have to tweak to find the correct level. It is going to take a bit of experimenting I think. The 1pt bets are borderline alright but I still think they can be profitable.
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                      #11
                      Not a good start unfortunately. 3 right 3 wrong but more heavily weighted on those that were wrong causing a substantial loss for week one.
                      While developing the spreadsheet further on Saturday night I found an error in the formula I was using for weighting. I spent an hour working on this and will have to make a big change to this to rectify it.
                      I was having trouble calculating the odds for the possibility of a draw with accuracy but think I have found a good way of doing this now. The spreadsheet will have to become more detailed than it is at present by calculating probabilities of w/l/d points of each team individually rather than an overall points system, but it should be a lot more accurate IMO once complete.
                      It will probably take me most of the week in my spare time to rectify this maybe two weeks but should be worth it.
                      I will post predictions once I have it completed.
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                        #12
                        Bit unlucky with the Swansea bet, Gary Speeds passing just before kick off must have had a big affect on concentration levels. Few injuries during the game didn't help your cause either.
                        Profit before people.

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                          #13
                          Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                          Bit unlucky with the Swansea bet, Gary Speeds passing just before kick off must have had a big affect on concentration levels. Few injuries during the game didn't help your cause either.
                          Not too worried about the bets made, all looked to be OK. Bet size was more of the error I think. Just a tough weekend I think.
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