Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Mammy told me not to come.

[Lazare]

@laz what was that footy tweet about?

A friend shared a bunch of WhatsApp screenshots. That particular comment got to me.

[eamonhonda]

A friend shared a bunch of WhatsApp screenshots. That particular comment got to me.

That comment is unfortunately not that uncommon. Very fucked up

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[ComradeCollie]

Political editor of Sunday Times. She might be resigning.

The Queen, or the political editor of the Sunday Times?

[CHDad]

What's this it was mcgregor but now is a footballer and there is WhatsApp messages thing?

[Raoul Duke III]

Political editor of Sunday Times. She might be resigning. In fairness even Boris could run the country better

Boris won't get the votes nor will any other Hard Brexiteer.

May is inept and vacillating. But (scary thought) she might be the best they've got.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[Raoul Duke III]

It's all moot who might get the vote if she gets her 156 votes tonight to stay anyway

She might quit anyway. Her authority is fatally undermined.

Good news for you: Brady says the leadership contest could happen with ten days (if there is one).

Good news for Leo: he doesn't have to pretend to be polite to her in Dublin today.

[Raoul Duke III]

Hmm, her press statement suggests she'll have to be dragged out by her fingernails.

UL HH.

[Raoul Duke III]

She's got balls, I'll say that for her.

Completely useless. But balls.

[Silver-Tiger]

Does she win later?

[ArmaniJeans]

Boris won't get the votes nor will any other Hard Brexiteer.

If there is an election for a new leader then it's worth remembering that Boris would only need 106 of the 316 MPs to support him to be guaranteed to be on the ballot paper that goes to the members. Top 2 go to the members so 33%+1 is fine. 90 votes would probably be enough unless two normal candidates manage to split their vote perfectly. The ERG base of 50 gives him a good start there.

Once it goes to the wider membership then Boris likely wins.

[V for Vendetta]

Does she win later?

I think she does. I think the plotters should have waited another week or two when she came back with nothing substantial from Europe.

[Strewelpeter]

Does she win later?

I'd say yes because

If there is an election for a new leader then it's worth remembering that Boris would only need 106 of the 316 MPs to support him to be guaranteed to be on the ballot paper that goes to the members. Top 2 go to the members so 33%+1 is fine. 90 votes would probably be enough unless two normal candidates manage to split their vote perfectly. The ERG base of 50 gives him a good start there.

Once it goes to the wider membership then Boris likely wins.

And because I think RDIII is wrong about this

Boris won't get the votes nor will any other Hard Brexiteer.

If she loses , whoever they put in will be a committed brexiteer on the basis of following through on the 'Will of the people'
Withdrawal agreement is in the bin
Then they will make a show of trying to renegotiate, they will fail then its a binary choice: Article 50 deferred and an election or No Deal on March 29th. They would know they have more chance of winning an election than a referendum.
That would be a very close call, ERG types will realise that by then the only type of brexit they (or anyone probably) could ever deliver would be a no deal one. They would try to sell it on the basis of it being a month or two of chaos and then Europe would come to them begging for a trade deal on brexiteer terms.

[DeadParrot]

Scary How the Web can start a rumour and it become gospel. From what I hear From fairly decent source CM has nothing to do with this and its a sportsmen from a much more popular sport involved. Guess we will find out in time either way in time.

is it the same mate of a guard in pearse st I got?

[Raoul Duke III]

I think she does. I think the plotters should have waited another week or two when she came back with nothing substantial from Europe.

Sure they made their move three weeks ago and couldn't muster the votes.

Clowns.

[DeadParrot]

This makes more sense:

https://www.thesun.ie/sport/football/3498458/james-mcclean-stoke-city-christmas-dublin/

One of them stands out.....

SPOILER

said sports star has categorically denied it was him btw

[DeadParrot]

Political editor of Sunday Times. She might be resigning. In fairness even Boris could run the country better

my 16/1 gove bet looks a little nicer

[V for Vendetta]

Sure they made their move three weeks ago and couldn't muster the votes.

Clowns.

Thing is if she wins tonight she’s safe for 12 months. Basically she can lose the vote in parliament, withdraw article 50 and blame parliament for not being willing to deliver the will of the people. Negotiate a Norway arrangement as an interim to a trade agreement and the backstop is gone away. Gamble gamble for Mrs May.

[DeadParrot]

Does she win later?

and then...

BAH GAWD, THAT’S JEREMY CORBYN’S MUSIC!! HE’S GOT THE MOTION OF NO CONFIDENCE!

[Guest]

https://www.thesun.ie/sport/football...istmas-dublin/


One of them stands out.....

SPOILER

said sports star has categorically denied it was him btw

If it is him the a certain flower loving segment of the English media and population are going to go nuts

[ArmaniJeans]

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/theresa-may-no-confidence-vote-2018

2/5 She wins vote.
21/10 She loses.

Closer than I thought they'd be.

[DeadParrot]

If there is an election for a new leader then it's worth remembering that Boris would only need 106 of the 316 MPs to support him to be guaranteed to be on the ballot paper that goes to the members. Top 2 go to the members so 33%+1 is fine. 90 votes would probably be enough unless two normal candidates manage to split their vote perfectly. The ERG base of 50 gives him a good start there.

Once it goes to the wider membership then Boris likely wins.

Raab - Raab has an appalling reputation with his former DExEU civil servants, wouldn't do DExEU meetings during his gym time during working hours every afternoon.
Johnson - repeatedly discredited, including an appalling stint as foreign sec.
Davis - failed as DExEU sec, also misled parliament repeatedly
Mcvey - well known cunt who told parliament that the country needing food banks is a good thing
Javid - referred to "sick Asian paedophiles"
Rudd - 4 failed business behind her, plus had to resign from HO.
Patel - an absolute bitch, who had to resign for acting beyond her brief
Gove - hated edu sec, grudgingly respected environment sec
Hunt - hated health sec, made a twat of himself as foreign sec including referring to his chinese wife as japanese
Morduant - swimsuit penny, that alone is more than enough for the red tops to crucify her
Leadsome - suggested herself as a more suitable PM because she's a mother

Gove ftw

SPOILER

[6starpool]

Thing is if she wins tonight she’s safe for 12 months. Basically she can lose the vote in parliament, withdraw article 50 and blame parliament for not being willing to deliver the will of the people. Negotiate a Norway arrangement as an interim to a trade agreement and the backstop is gone away. Gamble gamble for Mrs May.

Except for the fact that Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and lichtenstein don't want them in the efta at all and can (and will) refuse.

[V for Vendetta]

Except for the fact that Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and lichtenstein don't want them in the efta at all and can (and will) refuse.

Ultimately the EU really decides on who is in EFTA not Norway in my opinion.

[Guest]

They’re not going to cop on until they walk into their local Tesco and are greeted by empty shelves (and might not even cop on then)
Loads of “Churchill spirit” and goo feasting left

[6starpool]

Ultimately the EU really decides on who is in EFTA not Norway in my opinion.

I can't see them forcing it on anyone, they'd have to make concessions to do so I'd say, although I have no idea what those might be.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[Denny Crane]

Seems a massive miscalculation to have a vote against May right now.

If there is an election for a new leader then it's worth remembering that Boris would only need 106 of the 316 MPs to support him to be guaranteed to be on the ballot paper that goes to the members. Top 2 go to the members so 33%+1 is fine. 90 votes would probably be enough unless two normal candidates manage to split their vote perfectly. The ERG base of 50 gives him a good start there.

Once it goes to the wider membership then Boris likely wins.

Would he want the job right now?

[ArmaniJeans]

Seems a massive miscalculation to have a vote against May right now.

A theory doing the rounds that May loyalists may have sent in letters just to push it over the line now knowing a win means she is safe from the ERG bullshit for 12 months.

Would he want the job right now?

Yes I'd say. It's not ideal but very few ever get ideal timing.
Realistically being leader of the opposition and winning an election on a tide of goodwill (Blair, Cameron) is the best way to become PM but this would be 7 years away for Boris.

Becoming PM after an unpopular leader resigns (how Major, Brown, May got it) is probably the best he'll ever get.
He really wants it though.

[eamonhonda]

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics...ence-vote-2018

2/5 She wins vote.
21/10 She loses.

Closer than I thought they'd be.

Value in the loss considering a win guarantees her 12 more months, you'd imagine that will be what sways some

[ArmaniJeans]

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics...ence-vote-2018

2/5 She wins vote.
21/10 She loses.

Closer than I thought they'd be.

Now 1/6 7/2 type betting, looks more accurate.

[Dice75]

I know the worlds gone mad on being "offended" and most of its a load of bollocks but this is hilarious in how stupid some people can be to bring it on themselves...

https://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/dundee-united-defender-jamie-robson-under-investigation-after-appearing-in-blackface-at-a-party-37619098.html

[V for Vendetta]

A theory doing the rounds that May loyalists may have sent in letters just to push it over the line now knowing a win means she is safe from the ERG bullshit for 12 month.

That makes an awful lot of sense. In fact once the ERG shot their load three weeks ago this tactic became the clear option. Get a crack at seeing if the deal could be passed. Its been informally rejected but now they are up against the deadline, so bounce the party into securing her leadership and then either get a slightly revised deal or an article 50 extension through. It’s actually pretty clever if it’s been planned.

I think the only thing to really bet on is the size of her winning margin. Expect less than 80 votes against her.

[Raoul Duke III]

Now 1/6 7/2 type betting, looks more accurate.

Lots of MPs tweeting support, including entire cabinet. Very few advertising against. This is an odd scenario where the VoNC has happened in a rather chaotic manner and looks like a stab in the back at a time when 'the nation should uniting behind the PM'.

I'll have a small wager on 50-69 votes @ 7/1.

That said, even when she wins, she still loses.

[Raoul Duke III]

7/1 gone, now 5s.

It's like when JP steps into the ring at Cheltenham.

[Keane]

7/1 gone, now 5s.

It's like when JP steps into the ring at Cheltenham.

I was going to back that when I read your post about the 7s, nice spot.

It would have been a relief to finally be able to forgive you for telling me not to back Ireland to come back against England at 150/1 in the cricket world cup.

[Raoul Duke III]

I was going to back that when I read your post about the 7s, nice spot.

It would have been a relief to finally be able to forgive you for telling me not to back Ireland to come back against England at 150/1 in the cricket world cup.

Jaysis, I'll never achieve parity judged on that!

Unless I can pick the next US President at a crazy price....

[Mickey Rosa]

Latest rumour is that McGregor's whiskey has been pulled from the shelves of Dublin Airport, may just be because it's shite though.

[Raoul Duke III]

I think RDIII is very hard on May. Easy to be back seat driver and say she is useless and compare her to Thatcher. But the reality is there's not a lot of meat on the bones of your assertion of how useless she is. Could somebody else in the Tory party be doing a better job right now?

I think history will be kind to May. She never once comes across as driven by any sort of ego or sense of Etonian entitlement that precipitates so many of the others looking for her job. She always comes across as trying her best and have a sense of service to achieve an outcome. It's never ever been about her. I think we would be witnessing this same shit show regardless of who was in the hot seat. I admire her perseverance, particularly when compared to Cameron who ran for the hills.

Look at everything that has happened since she became PM:

1. the ludicrous GE, she bears 100% of the blame for that clusterfuck - which made the DUP central to Brexit
2. The completely unsustainable red lines she set out - and then abandoned one by one
3. Sending successive Brexit secretaries and negotiators to Brussels - with no iota of what they were supposed to achieve. Weygand's team just laughed at them.
4. The humiliation in parliament last week.
5. The humiliation in European capitals this week

.

That's just the high-level points. At every step of the process she has prevaricated, dithered and procrastinated. She's not a leader and her premiership will be remembered for a botched delivery of Brexit that united everyone in the UK in opposition to it.

[Tar.Aldarion]

Any pharmacy in the city centre do an iron blood test? All I can see is one in Whitehall.

[Keane]

Agree with RD3, she's been mind-boggingly terrible in every facet bar grim determination to stay in the hotseat.

The fact that every other 'big name' Tory would arguably be worse doesn't make her any good, despite what an incredible indictment that is.

[Raoul Duke III]

This guy does good Brexit:

May: the pretence of a consensual compromise

That direction of travel was realistic in the limited, but by no means unimportant, sense that it led to an agreement – May’s deal – being made in the form that we have now seen. But May remains wholly unrealistic in, now, presenting it as a ‘compromise’ between leave and remain positions which she expects both sides to ‘get behind’. By first tacking so hard towards the Brexit Ultras, and dismissing remainers, and then partly rowing back, she has created a version of Brexit which pleases almost no one.

That simply can’t be covered over by repeating, as she did when opening the debate, what against stiff competition is one of the most egregious lies told in the Brexit process. That is the proposition that since both main parties at the 2017 General Election endorsed not just Brexit but the hard Brexit of no single market membership, and since 80% of voters voted for one of these parties, this ‘proves’ there is overwhelming support for both Brexit and hard Brexit. It is manifestly nonsense, as is shown not least by the hallowed result of the 2016 Referendum. It is simply a pretence to claim anything other than that the country, like the House of Commons, is bitterly and more or less equally divided

.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[DeadParrot]

I think RDIII is very hard on May. Easy to be back seat driver and say she is useless and compare her to Thatcher. But the reality is there's not a lot of meat on the bones of your assertion of how useless she is. Could somebody else in the Tory party be doing a better job right now?

I think history will be kind to May. She never once comes across as driven by any sort of ego or sense of Etonian entitlement that precipitates so many of the others looking for her job. She always comes across as trying her best and have a sense of service to achieve an outcome. It's never ever been about her. I think we would be witnessing this same shit show regardless of who was in the hot seat. I admire her perseverance, particularly when compared to Cameron who ran for the hills.

She has:
Tried to push through triggering Article 50 without giving parliament a say, losing in the courts.
Tried to push through Henry VIII powers that would change democratic process in parliament.
Called election grossly misjudging the consensus among the populace
Lost said election then bribed the DUP to keep her in power.
Tried to push through leaving the EU without giving MPs a meaningful vote.
Tried to avoid sharing legal advice given to her with parliament, losing in the courts.
Become the first PM in history to have her government found in contempt of parliament.
Run away from a vote on her deal as she knows it would fail.

And that is before we talk about her influence in the Windrush scandal and lies on the Citizens Rights Directive.

Fuck her

[DeadParrot]

LOL safe to say a few disagreements there BCB

[Keane]

Good news for people who like tax breaks!

[RichieM]

LOL safe to say a few disagreements there BCB

History being kind is ranking her above eden who was at the reigns for Suez.

[Raoul Duke III]

History being kind is ranking her above eden who was at the reigns for Suez.

In fairness, whatever ranking she gets should be shared with Cameron.

[Keane]

I do agree that May came into power in an extremely difficult situation, but every major decision she has made has turned to be almost the exact wrong decision.

In fairness, this latest stunt of pulling the vote on the WA could prove to be inspired - but I suspect they'll fuck up the opportunity they have blundered into soon enough.

For her to get any credit I feel I would have to believe she's making a huge mess of everything on purpose in some Machiavellian scheme but I don't buy it for a second.

[Strewelpeter]

She is doing a better job than Corbyn.

[DeadParrot]

She is doing a better job than Corbyn.

He's a sneaky fucker.
The circumstances are such that he cannot have power. Probably not now, definitely not later. The issue is that he has made tabling a vote of no-confidence a preliminary first step to calling for a second referendum.
It doesn't matter tables the motion or not of its own sake, only because he himself has made it part of the process.
He is now hiding behind that process. It was the intention of conference that he would do one, then the other. Not that he would just do neither. If the intention was for him to only make the MONC when he was certain to win it, then there would be no need for a part 2 to the process. Everyone apart from Team Corbyn has always known and has always said that he is never going to get the numbers to defeat the government in this way but the high command dug their heels in and the party said "fine, do it your way, but when that fails, we do it our way". That was the implied agreement. By refusing to even try, he is frustrating that agreement.

If nothing changes later it's too late to do the second part and J-Dog knows it.

[Raoul Duke III]

> I think the fact that she is going to convincingly win the VONC later tells a big story which we've not read into.

The VoNC is happening by accident today, don't forget. This wasn't the plan for Rees-Mogg and his assorted cronies at all.

Plus as well there's probably 100/150 Tories who will vote whatever way the wind blows.

And, even when she wins, she still has to own the unmitigated fuckup she's made of Brexit. This cartoon sideshow today weakens her already weak pisituon even further.

Note: I'm not proposing anyone who could do a better job. Most of the leading Tories are droolers. And as for Labour....it still doesn't mitigate how terrible she's been.

[ArmaniJeans]

Apparently 174 MPs have come out in support of her today, needs 159 to win.
No reason to believe that the remainder are necessarily against, they may just have not been contactable or expressed a preference.

It is a private ballot though as far as I know.

[Zod]

there's two no confidence votes at play, in case anyone is getting confused. The one this evening is amongst the Tories in Theresa May, the one corbyn is humming and hawing about is the vote of no confidence in the government.

[Zod]

I think May being at the helm for Brexit is analogous to Cowen being at the helm for the Irish collapse. Sure he was driving the car when it crashed, but he along didn't set the car on that course.

not alone, but he was Minister for Finance for a large part of the tiger.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[Raoul Duke III]

Jaysus Gab is clearly sharing CC's drinking cabinet today. As Zod says he was the actual minister for finance before that.

Account hacked by jack imo

[Keane]

I think the whole day's posting was a long-con attempt to absolve the fella from Offaly.

[Keane]

Good post on boards this morning:

ancapailldorcha made a comment a couple of days ago about how the Brexiters in parliament were already leveraged in favour of Brexit. They've placed their bets, moved around their money, and their financial future now rides on ensuring that Brexit happens, ideally as hard as possible.

Realistically this is the only thing that now makes any sense. Barring an outcome where May receives 60% of the votes and thus can claim a "decisive" victory, all other outcomes lead to further uncertainty, further chaos in the Tories, general elections, and ultimately delays and stalling, preventing anything except a crash-out Brexit from happening.

The only way the actions of the ERG make any sense is if they are actively fighting for a crash-out Brexit and thus are willing to throw anything and everything at it, no matter how ill-planned or uncertain. They have no interest in any deal, their only interest is making sure there is no deal.

The Brexit thread over there is quite good.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057920074&page=226