PS $33 lvl3-value shove river?

[72over]

Villain literally joined table. Only read was a quick topshark check and so can assume he's a competent enough...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 33 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP2) (t6510)
CO (t5535)
Button (t7370)
SB (t3345)
BB (t4170)
UTG (t3000)
UTG+1 (t1995)
MP1 (t3080)

Hero's M: 86.80

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J, J
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t50, 1 fold, Hero bets t200, 3 folds, BB calls t150, UTG+1 calls t150

Flop: (t625) 4, 5, A (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

Turn: (t625) J (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets t350, Hero calls t350, 1 fold

River: (t1325) 7 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets t350, Hero?

[Wombatman]

Just a call for me Bob.

[Flushdraw]

I'd shove the turn. Villain has only 1500 behind and there's still a lot of hands in his range that you're ahead of but he'll call a shove with.

I might just call the river. Despite only having 1100 behind, he'll probably fold everything you beat, and will only call with the flush so you're not gaining much by raising.

[Angry-Ball]

it looks a bit like a sucker bet imo

but you are getting 5/1 so its a call for me but i pretty sure that you see alot of flushes here. but you only have to be right every 5th time

[Alfie]

Shove turn.

As played, I suppose I flat the river although he will be checking the flop to c/r Ax a lot so diamonds may not be as big a part of his range as it's made out to be here.

I guess you turn your hand into a bluff on the river if you shove because you fold out Ax, get snapped by flushes and only really get value from lower sets (which he probably leads on the A-high flop anyway) and maaaybe the occasional 2 pair... so don't do that?

[FeetMagic]

+1 for raising on the turn, as played I'm raising the river.

[72over]

Turn: Wasn't really querying the turn but am happy to get a full dissection of the hand...I'm surprised everyone wants to shove the turn. I'm not fan of shoving turn as it looks too strong for loads of reasons and I'm happy to call in position allowing him to put the rest of his chips in on the river. I feel it is much more profitable flatting here.

River: What makes me want to shove river is his bet sizing. 350 on the turn and 350 again on the river. With his stack it really feels like a thin value/blocker bet and doesn't seem at all strong to me. I don't think I've ever seen a strong hand take a line like this.

[Stoko]

I am for shove the turn.. as played I am for calling the river

[72over]

I am for shove the turn.. as played I am for calling the river

Could you elaborate further rather than just repeating what everyone else has said seeing as I am debating those points? ty

Also, I see you're from Newbridge, were you on my table yesterday in the 20k on stars? We started chatting near the final table

[Alfie]

Turn: Wasn't really querying the turn but am happy to get a full dissection of the hand...I'm surprised everyone wants to shove the turn. I'm not fan of shoving turn as it looks too strong for loads of reasons and I'm happy to call in position allowing him to put the rest of his chips in on the river. I feel it is much more profitable flatting here.

River: What makes me want to shove river is his bet sizing. 350 on the turn and 350 again on the river. With his stack it really feels like a thin value/blocker bet and doesn't seem at all strong to me. I don't think I've ever seen a strong hand take a line like this.

From your description of your thought process on the turn, I take it you are flatting purely to take villian to valuetown by raising or snapping off a shove on a huge % of rivers. From this point of view, the hand has gone exactly as planned with a fine river to execute this plan. I also agree with the bet-sizing thing you were saying. So, in contradiction to my previous post I think I like a shove on both turn and river almost equally.

Results?

[72over]

From your description of your thought process on the turn, I take it you are flatting purely to take villian to valuetown by raising or snapping off a shove on a huge % of rivers. From this point of view, the hand has gone exactly as planned with a fine river to execute this plan. I also agree with the bet-sizing thing you were saying. So, in contradiction to my previous post I think I like a shove on both turn and river almost equally.

Results?

Only river I don't want to see is a diamond that doesn't pair the board. If villain shoves/bets that river it's into read dependent mode(timing/bet sizing etc) but is a fold 99% of the time obv. I think shoving the turn loses value tbh and we gain value from hands we beat by flatting. Put yourself in villain's shoes and think about our what our line represents raising the turn imo.

Wont divulge what happened past that point just yet in hope to keep the debate pure

[Stoko]

Could you elaborate further rather than just repeating what everyone else has said seeing as I am debating those points? ty

Also, I see you're from Newbridge, were you on my table yesterday in the 20k on stars? We started chatting near the final table

I dont play much on PS and FTP.. why play them when there are everest, ongame, ipoker, party... all way softer than PS and FTP.
It wasnt me on the 20k lastnight..

I am for shove turn for main reason to charge him for any draw he has or if he had the flush already I still have 10 outs to suckout on him. I like charging him on the turn and also it could be value shove too. He has ~1500 left on the turn after his bet so I dont want to be faced on some weird decision on the river.
We have the Ad on the flop and Jd on the turn which makes flush possibility maybe 50% lower than if we didnt have the A and the J.. This % is just made up obv. So if he had the Kd or Qd I want him to pay me to see river.
Anyway we are on the river now so I think by shoving we only get called by somethign that will beat a set of Js.. I didnt read the other posts so sorry if I am way off or if I am repeating someone

[Wombatman]

River: What makes me want to shove river is his bet sizing. 350 on the turn and 350 again on the river. With his stack it really feels like a thin value/blocker bet and doesn't seem at all strong to me. I don't think I've ever seen a strong hand take a line like this.

Don't see the logic here.

We are assuming this guy is "competent enough".

His betting might suggest he is weak but is he going to call the rest off to you if his holding is weak?

[scouser in dub]

for jamming to be better than calling we need to have at least 50% equity against his calling range and I am pretty sure that he has enough Ax that's two pair and 44/55 often enough for jamming to be fine