550 tourney, early on day 2

[Jam-Fly]

Paul Carr actually asked me to post this hand for him since he wouldn't be the savviest when it comes to computers.

Paul is the hero in this hand and I'm the villain on the button. He wanted to get opinions on how the hand played out from his perspective.


Hero has c22k
Villain has hero covered with over 40k

Blinds: 400-800 (100)
Pf: Raise EP with Jh9c to 2100
Button calls

Flop: 3s4s6h (6200)
HERO bets 3600
Btn calls

Turn: 2s (13400) - after getting called on the flop, hero said he was planning on giving up
HERO checks
Btn checks

River: 9h (13400) - at this point, hero would weight villain's range towards 77 or 88
HERO (about 16k left in stack) ???


Reads: we have both played together an awful lot so would know each other's games quite well. Paul knows I'd be capable of calling him light if I think he's bluffing and also knows I wouldn't be afraid to put pressure on if I think I could make him fold. Paul had been playing relatively tight so far today.


Looking for opinions on all parts of the hand, but especially what you would do on the river.

[digiman]

Shouldn't be in the hand. Fold pre.

[Guest]

agree with fold pre.. as played i think i just check fold river and dont waste anymore chips on this hand cant imagine alot of hands were beating here... you stil have a decent re shoving stack with 16k

[smoothcall]

could bet small , like 4k. Or I might just check fold, dont think he's gonig to value worse.

[Bubbleking]

fold pre

c/f now

[sixtwo]

Shouldn't be in the hand. Fold pre.

these comments dont help the thread at all, he isnt asking should he fold pre, he ended up in this spot and wants some helpful feedback, not the usual "fold pre" "foldpre"

[AKQJ10]

could bet small , like 4k. Or I might just check fold, dont think he's gonig to value worse.

Im always a fan for thin value given my image most of the time but think its too thin here. Jamie well capable of turning weaker hands into bluff, if we check i think hes much more likely to just check back all one pair hands we beat with his showdown value and he'd only really value bet better so can just c/f.

[digiman]

these comments dont help the thread at all, he isnt asking should he fold pre, he ended up in this spot and wants some helpful feedback, not the usual "fold pre" "foldpre"

Sometimes there is not much point in talking about advanced stuff if someone does't know the basics

[TheWitchDoctor]

Sometimes there is not much point in talking about advanced stuff if someone does't know the basics

Going on about advance plays and you have never heard of balancing your range, I think if someone is playing tight this is a fine hand for doing so but would prefer it suited. So if you could give a view on the hand and stop trolling it would be best.

I'd probably go for check/fold myself hoping to show down the j9 and go back to playing tight, with a new loose image.

EDIT: i'd like to see a smaller preflop raise though 1650-1800 depending on the blinds.

[Emmet]

I don't know why anyone would want to open J9o in EP, especially with less than 30 bbs!

He's certainly not trolling, it just doesn't make sense.

[TheWitchDoctor]

These days its nearly as easy to steal utg then from the button the amount people play back at you. So are you saying you wouldnt raise fold the buton with 30bbs.
And if you only rasing your monsters utg then you must be you'll be too easy to play against..
O and of course its trolling if you refuse to give and answer saying someone wouldnt understand it, even if you did think that this is still a public forum or am i missing something.

[ViperEyeIRL]

Shove 4 value anyone?

With <30 BB effective stacks Button flatting range should be AA/KK/AQ/TT/99/88/77(not always), with QQ/JJ/AK is usually 3bet/call. Sometimes button can also have cards like KQ. high cards that flop well. Smaller pairs are usually folded pre as he is certainly not deep enough to set mine, same for small-medium suited connectors.
Given that AA/KK are usually 3bet 90% of the times anyway, we can take them out of the equation, also unlikely that Villain has JJ as we have a J blocker.

After button calls the cbet I think his range is weighted towards 77/88/99/TT/KsQs,AsQs and random floats.
Random floats are taken out of the equation after he checks behind on the turn, and I think AsQs or KsQs should make a small bet in order to setup a shove on the river. So it really looks like button is pot controlling 77/88/99/TT. 99 is highly unlikely given that we have a 9 blocker, and I think TT should bet the turn, mainly for protection as we have many hands like AQ/AK with 1 spade that we could check/push on the turn as given stacks we would have a decent FE and good equity in the hand with overcards+FD+GSSD, but against which Villain would be ahead with TT.
So 77/88 are the two most likely hands that are pot controlling the turn, our river shove looks like a pure bluff (just about over 1 psb), as we would have 2barrelled AA/KK/QQ/JJ almost always given stacks and the river shouldn't have helped our opening range which having <30bb shouldn't include many 9x (apart from 99 that we bet the turn anyway)....so I think this can be a profitable shove as 88/77 should call us a high % of the times here.

Said this J9o with these stacks is always a fold pre. Also, I don't know Villain at all, so estimated ranges could be obviously wrong.

[Jam-Fly]

I think people saying c/f river aren't really thinking about the hand enough. It's actually a very interesting spot.

And also, mainly looking for post flop analysis (and as I said, esp what to do on the river). I don't think anyone doubts that the book says to fold pf.

[CorkRichie]

Kinda a sick river for Paul in many ways as he now prob has to check call a lot of your value hands after hitting top pair on that board. Most draws get there and he now has showdown value. Depending on the player I'm up against and the live read. I either thin value bet river if u think a guy is a station and has a lot of ace rags or pair and str8 draw flush draw combos that will call a bet on river. or check call the bet on river to get value from river bluffs...

[islander32]

I dont mind the raise pre provided:
1. The blinds are tight and play ABC post flop.
2. we are raising with the intention of folding to any pressure pre.
3. our recent image is reasonably tight.

I don't like the pre-flop raise because:
1. We have a very capable opponent on the button who knows our game v. well, has us covered and will flat wide to outplay us post flop using postition.

On the flop I bet less @2800.
Check give up on turn is fine ... I might consider barreling though ... that turn card although it puts a scary board out there looks like a bit of a blank...c.f prob best though..

On river I'm not sure which I prefer.... shove for value or check fold. We can't bet fold the river given we only have a psb left.

Side Note: A lot of players will fold j9o in this position with this stacksize because
a. it's very difficult to play post flop and we can end up in some really tricky spots post flop
b. our stack size gives us very little wriggle room... if we were deeper in the above hand we have more guns to bring to the fight on later streets .

[Winning!]

I doubt villain is calling on the BTN here with too wide a range preflop given hero's relatively short stack. This rules out a lot of connector combos that could potentially have draws on this flop to flushs or straights. I expect ATs+/PP's mostly.

Also with only 16k behind in heros stack it's very likely villain would have shoved over the flop cbet with any flush or straight draw, so as bad a card as the 2s looks it's not actually too likely to have improved villains hand. Once the turn gets checked through I think villain is pot controlling a lot, has a 5 almost never unless it's As5s, so once the offsuit 9 falls we likely have the best hand.

b/fold like 7k OTR, gets paid a lot since the 9 hardly ever connects with our range, and villain will call light if he thinks your bluffing. He'll probably never turn a value hand into a bluff here though since our range is so polarised and we are slightly commited, and he rarely has worse than A-high.

[minor]

I think he should shove da river. Especially after da comment he made.

[Arazi]

Don't see how this is even interesting except for the river gives Paul a chance to win the hand.
Given the info in OP u can't hate the raise preflop and equally he must c bet there also (I'd have bet less on each occasion especially given heros stack size but that's heros style so whatever).
The Turn completes most draws so villain decides to check and give up, prudent given his stack size (this is where betting smaller pre and on the flop could offer the opportunity to further barrel and really put pressure on).
River basically gives showdown value and little more. Check/Fold is probably correct.

[Arazi]

Don't see how this is even interesting except for the river gives Paul a chance to win the hand.
Given the info in OP u can't hate the raise preflop and equally he must c bet there also (I'd have bet less on each occasion especially given heros stack size but that's heros style so whatever).
The Turn completes most draws so hero decides to check and give up, prudent given his stack size (this is where betting smaller pre and on the flop could offer the opportunity to further barrel and really put pressure on).
River basically gives showdown value and little more. Check/Fold is probably correct.

[AndyFatBastard]

I think it's a terrible flop to cbet. He has J high, fuck all equity, and is getting called by tons of hands.

[blaaaaaaah]

I don't see whats wrong with opening this pre. If this is from Macau I opened alot worse all day on day2 with huge success, it's ridic soft. Paul is well equipped post flop to handle most situations and is also very aggressive post flop as he is pre. It's a fine open however his betsizing is way too much... He should be opening for 1600 - 1800 max preflop and cbetting between 2,100 - 2,600. This also depends on board textures of course.

For the river he should be bluff catching verus a capable player like you so I'd prefer to check the river as when value betting its going to stand out like a mile that its a very thin bet therefore gives jaime many options in the hand he could even click back with 2 pair or straight and also shoves flushes and complete bluffs. I have played a few hands verus Mark mac in spots like these and we have both successfully bluffed each other quiet a bit when noticing thin vbets.

Against other type players I prob go for the thin vbet on the river.

As it stands I'd prob check fold to a bet from Jaime on the river as if he was gonna bluff he would never check back such a good looking bluff card that hit the turn!..

It is an interesting spot tho for sure but it's all about the check back on turn. I doubt very much Jaime waits untill the river to make a bluff. I doubt Jaime vbets worse than one pair of 9s on the river.

[Jam-Fly]

Thanks for all the replies guys.

Results: Paul shoved all in with the J9. I deliberated for a long time and ended up folding 88.


Upon initially hearing that Paul shoved with J9 I was a bit shocked. It seemed like a spot where there was no point value betting it and it seemed better used as a bluff catcher. Paul's justification was that he strongly felt I had 77 or 88 and he knew I'd be capable of calling a big bet if I thought I was good. Since he put me on 77 or 88, he said he was shoving any A, K, Q, J or 9 non-spade river, otherwise, he was giving up. It's an interesting spot where his range is almost the opposite of polarized. If a A/K/Q falls on the river, he's shoving as a bluff, whereas if a J or 9 falls, he's shoving as a value bet. As far as game theory goes, this seems to be a good play due to it being somewhat unexploitable (ie if he has any hand that has two non-paired/non-spade cards above a 9, it's very tough for me to make a good play against this play).

Since we play together a lot, I think making the 'unexploitable' play does have a lot going for it. If the hand is played in a vacuum, I think I do actually like the check fold option! I think the thin value bet is tough to make, because if I shove, do you really want to fold (again, Paul knows that if I smell weakness from a thin value bet, I'm capable of pushing, therefore, he puts himself in a spot where he has could be calling against the nuts or folding against a bluff).

If he checks, and I do bet, can he call? Again due to the possible levelling going on, I could well bluff the river, but the way the hand is played out, it is tough for me to hold a hand that does not have showdown value. If I bet the river, it really is a flush or nothing hand. Again though, given the way the hand is played out, there are very few nothing hands in my range.

All in all, it is a very close one. After thinking about it, I think it's either shove river for value or check-fold, which in itself is very interesting. If you shove the river, you do eliminate the possibility of getting bluffed (also, you have to consider that if the possibility of getting bluffed is that high, the check-call starts to become more attractive). That said however, there still has to be hands in the villain's range to call you should you shove for value. Given that I did have specifically 88, and folded, I think that shows that shoving for value can't be the right answer. Therefore, I think check-folding actually is the correct option. I can see arguments for both sides, but at the end of the day, if I'm folding 88 here, that means you're bluffing with your J9.

(That does beg the question, is there any point bluffing with your J9? If your getting villain to fold 88, are you getting him to fold TT or better hands? Maybe you are, but the reason I think bluffing with the J9 is terrible is because there's very few hands better than J9 in villain's range that aren't an insta call. Any flush is an insta call. Am I folding sets? Don't think so. TT-AA maybe I fold, but these make up so little of my range because I usually 3-bet pre or raise on the flop. There are also zero two pair hands in my range (due to my pf call) so getting two-pair hands to fold mean nothing. So it's never really worth bluffing with the J9, if you're shoving, you're shoving for value.)


If you factor in stuff like meta-game, image etc. I can definitely see a case being made for shoving being the best play! But I think the play that achieves the highest cEV is check-folding.