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Live hand from Cueclub summer game

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    Live hand from Cueclub summer game

    Blinds 100/200, i am playing about 21k from a 15k starting stack, villain playing 13k, i know very well and is well able to play, i would rate him as a good player, he is utg and makes it 550, lp calls, i am in the sb with KhQh and bb makes it up.
    Flop 10sJc2d, checked all round, now once villain checks i am thinking he has a big hand, 1010/JJ hence the check.

    Turn Ad, villain leads for 1100, LP folds, i flat trying to get the bb in as he is a very bad player and if he has any piece of this he will call but he mucks. (Thoughts on flatting)?

    River 7d, i lead for 3500, this lead is questionable, (thoughts)?, my own thinking behind is that i am looking for villain to jam as i have him on JJ/1010.

    Thoughts on this please?

    #2
    I think your range for him here is a little tight. AK, AQ are really outside his range here??

    There's a reasonable chance you never get a penny by checking the river so I don't mind the bet so much other than your hand looks so like a draw that's hit the river (8,9 or diamonds perhaps) that a good player would have a decent case to throw a set here.
    You are technically correct...the best kind of correct
    World Record Holder for Long Distance Soul Reads: May 7th 2011

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      #3
      Originally posted by Kayroo View Post
      I think your range for him here is a little tight. AK, AQ are really outside his range here??

      There's a reasonable chance you never get a penny by checking the river so I don't mind the bet so much other than your hand looks so like a draw that's hit the river (8,9 or diamonds perhaps) that a good player would have a decent case to throw a set here.
      With this villain he would normally cbet with AK/AQ, i have rulled out AA/KK as he would defo cbet with these, it is possible that he could have an under pair to to the Q/J.

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        #4
        Good players won't check set there on flop. You should lead turn definitely. His most likely hands are aq and ak imo so great card to lead and bb may have some draws too to get value from. I would bet fold river then if he calls turn.

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          #5
          Originally posted by ikilldurrr1 View Post
          Good players won't check set there on flop. You should lead turn definitely. His most likely hands are aq and ak imo so great card to lead and bb may have some draws too to get value from. I would bet fold river then if he calls turn.
          I probably should have metioned that i have been dominating the table and villain knows that i can be an agressive player so if he has a set he could be looking for me to lead a blank turn.

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            #6
            you have a guy 'on' a set (even though hes every bit if not more likely to have a hand that can still improve), you hate every diamond and paired board yet you flat the turn in order to allow another runner in cheap
            Pump that turn every time.
            Turning millions into thousands

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              #7
              Even more reason to lead turn then.

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                #8
                Your range of only sets is a little tight indeed

                Id raise the turn
                https://twitter.com/#!/PadraigONeill89

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                  #9
                  Originally posted by ikilldurrr1 View Post
                  Good players won't check set there on flop. You should lead turn definitely. His most likely hands are aq and ak imo so great card to lead and bb may have some draws too to get value from. I would bet fold river then if he calls turn.
                  You bet fold that river to the UTG raiser? He'd have to have raised pre with diamonds that aren't Ace high. Would be pretty surprising given the OP's image of him. If he had KdJd/KdQd/Kd10d you'd think there's be a cbet on the flop. There's def a case for raising the turn and i'd prob bet a little less on the river as it's close to a third of his remaining stack so he won't call it off lightly (just in case he has just an Ace rather than set).

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                    #10
                    That's true. Missed that. Suppose it wouldn't be a clear cut bet fold then. 910d ,q10d are plausible i suppose. But yeah would lean me towards a call now.

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                      #11
                      If you have the guy on a set then you have to raise the turn when the A comes. Your value is in him calling it off on the turn and not with the bb. Villain with a set can put you on a weak ace, two pair or a draw at this point and jam. He is never folding.

                      Pretty LOL putting him on a set on the flop though unless he is a massive tell box. Still raise the turn in any case, especially as you have been so agro.

                      River is a bet call as played but I bet a little less.
                      Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt

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                        #12
                        You have to lead the turn here imo, and I'd bet ~2/3pot. Someone is very likely to have Ax/2P at this point, and being first to act you're in such a perfect position to build a pot with 3 players behind. Leading > c/raise > c/call as both other lines will probably make villain slow down some and lose the minimum in position.

                        IF I checked I would have no concern for getting the BB's money in here, as it's not worth nearly as much consideration as the amount we could potentially extract from UTG by c/raising and playing for stacks on the river.

                        As played, leading the river is pretty bad vs a good player, who will rarely pay us off with worse than a set/2P since our hand is essentially face-up at this point given the obvious strength of our line, and they would have bet these hands anyway if checked to so we gain nothing.

                        So, c/call > lead > c/shove imo, which seems passive but we got into this situation by under-repping our hand up until this point and raising/leading looks so suspicious now that if played back at we will have essentially turned our monster into a bluff-catcher.
                        "c'est en faisant n'importe quoi qu'on devient n'importe qui"

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                          #13
                          Ok so as played, when i bet the river villain now ships, what now?

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                            #14
                            I'd find it hard to fold but i'd say he has a flush a very high % of the time. You have flushes in your range so I don't see him shoving any worse hands for value, though its not impossible.

                            Either way not leading the turn and then not raising is awful. I may lead the flop too, two overs and an OESD, betting here will take the pot down often and our hand is good enough to call a raise/3bet with.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by TheImprover View Post
                              Ok so as played, when i bet the river villain now ships, what now?
                              I call with almost 3:1 because sometimes people will spaz out with top set/straight thinking it's the nuts. The more I look the harder I find it to put a good player on any flush here from UTG assuming the game is full-ring; KdQd surely cbets the flop with two overs and an up and down, same with KdJd/QdJd having top pair.. unusual line.
                              "c'est en faisant n'importe quoi qu'on devient n'importe qui"

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                                #16
                                results..? :P
                                "c'est en faisant n'importe quoi qu'on devient n'importe qui"

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Flop check is super-standard.
                                  Flatting turn then leading river is horrible. You gave him a free card when he was behind, and then bet when you knew you were no longer ahead.

                                  Originally posted by TheImprover View Post
                                  With this villain he would normally cbet with AK/AQ, i have rulled out AA/KK as he would defo cbet with these, it is possible that he could have an under pair to to the Q/J.
                                  He probably does normally c-bet those hands, but just because he didn't doesn't mean they aren't in his range. C-betting 80% of the time, stil means he checks 1 in 5 times.
                                  A set only is way too narrow without an uber read.

                                  Originally posted by Winning! View Post
                                  I call with almost 3:1 because sometimes people will spaz out with top set/straight thinking it's the nuts. The more I look the harder I find it to put a good player on any flush here from UTG assuming the game is full-ring; KdQd surely cbets the flop with two overs and an up and down, same with KdJd/QdJd having top pair.. unusual line.
                                  There's way more diamonds in his range that that. All the middle connectors, this is live.
                                  Plus we aren't getting 3/1 its closer to 2/1

                                  It's purely a case of pot odds now,
                                  We need to have 30% equity, which means he has to be bluffing slightly more than 30% of the time (due to the chances of a chop).
                                  If he bluffs less than this fold, more than this call - you haven't said much on his image so we can't really comment.

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