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    "I'd rather 72o than Aces"

    Not going to comment two much on this one, just looking for general opinions on the hand. Villain in the hand is 20/16, 3X opening has his standard sizing over the hands i've seen. No real reads but stats like that at the time seem ok. No real other reads. Been playing pretty tag up to this point because I was playing around 6 tables but just down to 1 at this stage.


    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 10 Tournament, 1250/2500 Blinds 325 Ante (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    UTG+1 (t27142)
    MP1 (t40661)
    MP2 (t104588)
    CO (t68163)
    Button (t187360)
    SB (t92339)
    Hero (BB) (t100869)
    UTG (t77791)

    Hero's M: 15.88

    Preflop: Hero is BB with 2, 7
    4 folds, CO bets t7500, 2 folds, Hero raises to t19555

    #2
    like WTF!!
    are we assuming everytime someone opens from late position they are opening with crap so therefore we can reraise or shipp over them and force a fold.

    how many hands have you got on this guy?
    nothing wrong with 20/16 tbh
    has he a history of folding to a reraise by the blinds when he opens from late position, or have you just decided this is a good spot?



    "Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"

    Comment


      #3
      Originally posted by Angry-Ball View Post
      like WTF!!
      are we assuming everytime someone opens from late position they are opening with crap so therefore we can reraise or shipp over them and force a fold.

      how many hands have you got on this guy?
      nothing wrong with 20/16 tbh
      has he a history of folding to a reraise by the blinds when he opens from late position, or have you just decided this is a good spot?


      Had a feeling some might react like this.

      He has 50% c/o steal too. 67% total if that changes anything. He hadn't been 3-bet yet, so no trial runs of that so maybe that might be leaky? 40 hand sample size.

      I'd like people to take note of his stack clearly because my decision was purely stack related decision for me. Basically what I want to discuss here, should we wait for hands with reasonable value or can situations where we can apply pressure because of of our villains stack size with ANY hand?
      Last edited by peterswellman; 29-03-12, 21:01.

      Comment


        #4
        Don't mind it at all, people will get fixated on you having 7,2 tho

        If he is 3xing this deep in a tourn my first reaction is usually he isn't that good.

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by ghostface ste View Post

          If he is 3xing this deep in a tourn my first reaction is usually he isn't that good.
          This is why we shouldn't 3b imo

          Comment


            #6
            This is retarded.
            Foldaramus et foldarabimus

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by Tremolo1 View Post
              This is why we shouldn't 3b imo
              Perhaps, no idea what the stats mean in the OP but usually can put a lot of pressure on people 3xing at this stage of a tourney and get folds

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by TommyGunne View Post
                This is retarded.
                Genuine lol. 100% correct. I mean wtf are you hoping happens?

                Comment


                  #9
                  Tilt much? Beyond horrific.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Main reason I dislike this isn't specifically our hand, it's that the villain is prob really bad and gonna peel the 3bet really wide even though its 1/3rd his stack and were in nomans land oop with junk + obv shove the top of his opening range. Much better spots to take than this IMO.
                    They will be like WTF how does he always have the top of his range, and they will be saying that when you show up with like nine's - Jimmy Fricke
                    Nine's are the top of my range - Shaun Deeb

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by TommyGunne View Post
                      This is retarded.
                      Really?

                      Let me just give you my thoughts on the hand. Now as someone said, someone who 3x opens might not be the best but he had shown an ability to steal and his opening VIP and preflop raises don't seem that bad so who knows. Maybe need to take this spot on more thinking players and maybe not in the positions shown as maybe it looks a little too much like a re-steal for me.

                      Anyway, my thinking here is quite simply. When we 3-bet this guy, it places him in a very awkward spot. His opening range is going to be pretty wide here. His stack is quite awkward in that he's left pretty deep and we're putting him in a spot where he has to shove or fold imo. I'm going to assume he won't be 4-bet jamming 24 big blinds here overly wide over a random will he? I certainly think it's a pretty decent spot to pick up the 13,850 in the middle and out the guy in a spot where he might not be comfortable in. So by me putting in another 17,050 to win the 13,850, I would be interested in those who run the numbers how many times it would take for it to be profitable? I'm putting my stack to work being quite deep here and applying some pressure.

                      Anything insanely wrong with that thinking? I'd would agree with the posters that stated that I maybe chose the wrong villain.
                      Last edited by peterswellman; 29-03-12, 21:54.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by jbravado View Post
                        Tilt much? Beyond horrific.
                        This has nothing got to do with tilt btw. I looked at his stack carefully before making my 3-bet.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by Daragh999 View Post
                          Main reason I dislike this isn't specifically our hand, it's that the villain is prob really bad and gonna peel the 3bet really wide even though its 1/3rd his stack and were in nomans land oop with junk + obv shove the top of his opening range. Much better spots to take than this IMO.
                          Now this I can understand and I kind of agree with tbh and probably should have picked a villain to do this against more carefully.

                          Would people agree this wouldn't be that bad against a different villain?

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by zuutroy View Post
                            I mean wtf are you hoping happens?
                            I get a fold preflop.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by peterswellman View Post
                              Really?

                              Let me just give you my thoughts on the hand. Now as someone said, someone who 3x opens might not be the best but he had shown an ability to steal and his opening VIP and preflop raises don't seem that bad so who knows. Maybe need to take this spot on more thinking players and maybe not in the positions shown as maybe it looks a little too much like a re-steal for me.

                              Anyway, my thinking here is quite simply. When we 3-bet this guy, it places him in a very awkward spot. His opening range is going to be pretty wide here. His stack is quite awkward in that he's left pretty deep and we're putting him in a spot where he has to shove or fold imo. I'm going to assume he won't be 4-bet jamming 24 big blinds here overly wide over a random will he? I certainly think it's a pretty decent spot to pick up the 13,850 in the middle and out the guy in a spot where he might not be comfortable in. So by me putting in another 17,050 to win the 13,850, I would be interested in those who run the numbers how many times it would take for it to be profitable? I'm putting my stack to work being quite deep here and applying some pressure.

                              Anything insanely wrong with that thinking?
                              if he reshipps he leaves you with just shy of 2:1 pot odds which means you should call with ATC,
                              so how do you feel now?



                              "Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Originally posted by peterswellman View Post
                                Really?

                                Let me just give you my thoughts on the hand. Now as someone said, someone who 3x opens might not be the best but he had shown an ability to steal and his opening VIP and preflop raises don't seem that bad so who knows. Maybe need to take this spot on more thinking players and maybe not in the positions shown as maybe it looks a little too much like a re-steal for me.

                                Anyway, my thinking here is quite simply. When we 3-bet this guy, it places him in a very awkward spot. His opening range is going to be pretty wide here. His stack is quite awkward in that he's left pretty deep and we're putting him in a spot where he has to shove or fold imo. I'm going to assume he won't be 4-bet jamming 24 big blinds here overly wide over a random will he? I certainly think it's a pretty decent spot to pick up the 13,850 in the middle and out the guy in a spot where he might not be comfortable in. So by me putting in another 17,050 to win the 13,850, I would be interested in those who run the numbers how many times it would take for it to be profitable? I'm putting my stack to work being quite deep here and applying some pressure.

                                Anything insanely wrong with that thinking?
                                All assumes he good and we hav already discovered he isn't. See my earlier post for specifically why it's terrible. And just cause some1 opens and steals a lot dosn't make them good. Norwegians this week at the JP Masters are a good example of this.
                                They will be like WTF how does he always have the top of his range, and they will be saying that when you show up with like nine's - Jimmy Fricke
                                Nine's are the top of my range - Shaun Deeb

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Angry-Ball View Post
                                  if he reshipps he leaves you with just shy of 2:1 pot odds which means you should call with ATC,
                                  so how do you feel now?
                                  I'm snap folding.

                                  I put out the extra 17,050 to try and collect the 13k in the middle. Snap folding to a shove as I don't think i'm getting the price with this garbage. Plus, I know the villain isn't insanely light.

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Daragh999 View Post
                                    All assumes he good and we hav already discovered he isn't. See my earlier post for specifically why it's terrible. And just cause some1 opens and steals a lot dosn't make them good. Norwegians this week at the JP Masters are a good example of this.
                                    This is one point I agree totally with. This guy would be french aswell so chances are he's shocking.

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by peterswellman View Post
                                      I'm snap folding.

                                      I put out the extra 17,050 to try and collect the 13k in the middle. Snap folding to a shove as I don't think i'm getting the price with this garbage. Plus, I know the villain isn't insanely light.
                                      the thing is you are getting the price, and you have walked yourself into it with garbage,



                                      "Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Angry-Ball View Post
                                        the thing is you are getting the price, and you have walked yourself into it with garbage,
                                        Meh, gotta try stuff to learn and improve and by god am I trying crazy stuff.

                                        I'd snap fold anyway because regardless of the price against a 4 bet shoving range here I don't think i'm getting the price. Even against a fairly loose shove of imo i'm still only 26% and not getting the price.

                                        22+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,A9o+,KJo+

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          i guess the point iam trying to make is that you can't do this with ATC unless you have good reads that he is going to fold a large percentage of the time, if you are going to do this you must have a hand that plays well because like i said if he reshipps you are priced in to call.



                                          "Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Angry-Ball View Post
                                            i guess the point iam trying to make is that you can't do this with ATC unless you have good reads that he is going to fold a large percentage of the time, if you are going to do this you must have a hand that plays well because like i said if he reshipps you are priced in to call.
                                            At 26%, i'm not really getting the price though am I or am my maths off?

                                            Fair enough though and thanks for your thoughts and reasoning why.

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              no your maths are good, its iam wrong
                                              2:1 is the correct odds if he open shoves, a 4 bet shove is a completely different beast.
                                              but it still dosn't change the fact that i don't like it.
                                              Last edited by Angry-Ball; 29-03-12, 22:14.



                                              "Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                Think it's a good move. At 20/16 with a high steal rate, says he raises a lot from that position but is tight against other peoples raises, so I think he's folding to the 3-bet a lot more often than anything else. Also with your tight image, he's no reason to believe you're making a move.

                                                There's some added equity in that he's less likely to attack your blind afterwards, but I think the move on its own is +EV. You need him to fold about 60% of the time to be profitable, which I think he does easily.

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  Fold pre. Such a spaz like whats the plan if he flats. 72o out of position in a inflated pot will be heaps of fun.
                                                  https://twitter.com/#!/PadraigONeill89

                                                  Comment


                                                    #26
                                                    Havent read much of this thread still grinding, Whats his fold to 3b? If hes the type of guy thats gonna flat a ton then obv bad but if hes folded 3/3 3/4 times then why not cant see it being a problem. If hes never been 3b and we dont have that read then i dont think we should test him out with this hand.

                                                    Comment


                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by anymorejokes View Post
                                                      Fold pre. Such a spaz like whats the plan if he flats. 72o out of position in a inflated pot will be heaps of fun.
                                                      Was planning on flatting if I didn't 3-bet. Folding would be the last option, only nits fold here.

                                                      Originally posted by Laois Hammer View Post
                                                      Havent read much of this thread still grinding, Whats his fold to 3b? If hes the type of guy thats gonna flat a ton then obv bad but if hes folded 3/3 3/4 times then why not cant see it being a problem. If hes never been 3b and we dont have that read then i dont think we should test him out with this hand.
                                                      Needless to say, he hadn't been 3-bet over 40 hands so I thought why not. Let's throw 17k out there and see what happens.

                                                      Comment


                                                        #28
                                                        If I'm 3betting in this spot I need to have good reason to do so with a hand like this. Without enough history I'd just let it go.

                                                        Comment


                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by peterswellman View Post
                                                          Needless to say, he hadn't been 3-bet over 40 hands so I thought why not. Let's throw 17k out there and see what happens.
                                                          yeh its tempting coz hes opening so much but you need some sort of stat on how he reacts to 3bet imo

                                                          Comment


                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by peterswellman View Post
                                                            So by me putting in another 17,050 to win the 13,850, I would be interested in those who run the numbers how many times it would take for it to be profitable?
                                                            He needs to fold approaching 60% to be +EV

                                                            Originally posted by Daragh999 View Post
                                                            All assumes he good and we hav already discovered he isn't. See my earlier post for specifically why it's terrible. And just cause some1 opens and steals a lot dosn't make them good. Norwegians this week at the JP Masters are a good example of this.
                                                            You say he was bad becasue be prob calls off 1/3 really wide.
                                                            Maybe he does. Maybe not. Thats just an assumption. Just like assume he is bad due to 3x open (maybe he only 3x above 25 BBs), or that he is good due to decent stats.
                                                            The reality is, its a tiny sample, we can't say too much either way on that mixed bag.
                                                            It's likely he isn't terrible, but isn't great

                                                            Originally posted by padraig View Post
                                                            Think it's a good move. At 20/16 with a high steal rate, says he raises a lot from that position but is tight against other peoples raises, so I think he's folding to the 3-bet a lot more often than anything else. Also with your tight image, he's no reason to believe you're making a move.
                                                            His steal from CO stat isnt that high. More importantly, the sample size is useless. It's 40 hands. Which means he was only in the CO 4-6 times in those hands.
                                                            So the steal rate is based on 2 or 3 CO raises. Not look at his open rasie stats, 16%, which is maybe 6 or 7 hands out of 40ish. Hardly means much.

                                                            He hasn't been 3 bet yet so we have no idea what his tendency is.
                                                            Basically we have very little to go on and the villian is very average. Not near enough info to take a line like this with air.
                                                            Last edited by Mellor; 29-03-12, 23:51.

                                                            Comment


                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by Mellor View Post
                                                              His steal from CO stat isnt that high. More importantly, the sample size is useless. It's 40 hands. Which means he was only in the CO 4-6 times in those hands.
                                                              So the steal rate is based on 2 or 3 CO raises.
                                                              50% is very big compared to his overall VPIP of 20%, but point taken about the sample size. I'd also look at his button steal percentage to get more samples. You can discount for sample size and still have it +EV. e.g. if you conservatively estimate he raises in the cutoff 30% of hands, and continues against against the 3-bet with the top 10%, then he's folding 2 out of 3 times to the reraise, which at 66%, is above the amount we need.

                                                              He hasn't been 3 bet yet so we have no idea what his tendency is.
                                                              Basically we have very little to go on and the villian is very average. Not near enough info to take a line like this with air.
                                                              His 20/16 VPIP is enough to know he doesn't call raises much. I wouldn't rely that much on "response to 3bet" stats because the sample size will always be much smaller for that, and could be skewed by the situations. In 40 hands he hasn't been 3-bet once, how long would it take to get reliable stats for 3-bets? You can infer it from his raise/call stats, which you'll have much more of. The fact that he hasn't been played back at yet works a bit in our favour, it makes him more likely to lay his hand down.

                                                              Comment


                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by padraig View Post
                                                                if you conservatively estimate he raises in the cutoff 30% of hands, and continues against against the 3-bet with the top 10%, then he's folding 2 out of 3 times to the reraise, which at 66%, is above the amount we need.
                                                                Are you serious? You just picked random numbers that suit the required fold %

                                                                I could just as easily say he'll continue with the top 14%, so he is folding 16/30 which is less than the percentage we need.

                                                                Comment


                                                                  #33
                                                                  I think its fine, don't really get all the hate. Obviously in terms of ranges you would be better off doing with with the top of your folding range rather than the bottom, on the off chance that he calls, but I think he smooth calls so rarely that game flow and timing are much more important considerations. That said you don't give any history so it's impossible to judge really.

                                                                  Many players will give a players first 3bet an enormous amount of respect, so I often think it's worth getting a 3bet in as early as possible so you don't waste the folding equity, and to get more action later. I don't know if that applies here.

                                                                  In any situation where you are extremely unlikely to actually get to a showdown, your actual hand doesn't make a whole lot of difference. I mean here, he is going to shove or fold most of the time, and a lot of the time he just calls he is going to be slowplaying a big pair, so our hand is really unlikely to get to a showdown here. With something like KQ here you're in a very awkward spot if you 3bet, since there are plenty of ways to get to a showdown, but very little of them result in you having the best hand.

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    #34
                                                                    weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeee
                                                                    "c'est en faisant n'importe quoi qu'on devient n'importe qui"

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by Mellor View Post
                                                                      Are you serious? You just picked random numbers that suit the required fold %

                                                                      I could just as easily say he'll continue with the top 14%, so he is folding 16/30 which is less than the percentage we need.

                                                                      That smells like big foots dick!

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        #36
                                                                        Great play keep it up man *thumbs up*

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          #37
                                                                          Originally posted by Daragh999 View Post
                                                                          Main reason I dislike this isn't specifically our hand, it's that the villain is prob really bad and gonna peel the 3bet really wide even though its 1/3rd his stack and were in nomans land oop with junk + obv shove the top of his opening range. Much better spots to take than this IMO.
                                                                          Yea its not havin 72o thats the issue, its the player, like this play in this spot is fine against half decent players, if the stacks are such that he cant really peel. A high steal and fold to 3bet would make me 3 bet this spot with atc prob close to 100%. But against a 3xin donk who may peel, when youve only 40 hands on him, its fold an move on. I get where the OP was goin with this hand and hes approaching the spot correctly, saying its retarded is unfair imo.
                                                                          Last edited by alanmc101; 30-03-12, 07:08.

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            #38
                                                                            Originally posted by zuutroy View Post
                                                                            Genuine lol. 100% correct. I mean wtf are you hoping happens?
                                                                            What the hell do u think he wants to happen? He wants a flop and has a feelling it'll be 772?

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              #39
                                                                              I like this as a strategy when you have some chips to manouvre with relative to the rest of the table. Obviously your hand doesn't matter.

                                                                              That your villain still raises 3x probably tells you that he learned his poker a good while back, and I think it probably also tells you that he will have more fear of 3bets.

                                                                              More important than his reaction to 3bet stats, i think, are his own cb and his fold to cb stats. Having made this kind of move, if called, you can't just check it down. A villain whose cb is 100% wouldn't necessarily place any value on your cb which is going to make taking the pot on the flop/turn a bit too expensive.

                                                                              Most times in tournaments we don't have enough stats to make 'guaranteed' judgments so you just have to run with what you have.

                                                                              Problem with a move like this is that if it doesn't work out you go from a stack with plenty flexibility back to needing to pick up good hands or push/fold mode. That said, I still like it as a strategy online.

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                #40
                                                                                Was the 72 game on or something?

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  #41
                                                                                  Originally posted by Mellor View Post
                                                                                  Are you serious? You just picked random numbers that suit the required fold %

                                                                                  I could just as easily say he'll continue with the top 14%, so he is folding 16/30 which is less than the percentage we need.
                                                                                  Hardly random. He open-raises 16% in all situations, we have a small sample size that says he raises 50% in the cutoff. An estimate of him raising 30% in the cutoff when it's folded to him is reasonable.

                                                                                  He plays 20% of hands in total. How many does he continue with against a 3-bet from a guy who's been tight up to now? You think your 14% estimate is accurate? It's a lot lower than that.


                                                                                  The important number is what percentage of hands he opens with in the cutoff that he continues with against a 3-bet. At 20/16, he's probably not much different to people here. So ask yourself this: for hands you'd open with in the cutoff, what percentage would you continue with against a 3-bet? Is it higher or lower than 45%? If it's lower (and I think it's easily lower), it's correct for the guy in the BB to 3-bet.

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    #42
                                                                                    FPS terrible condition.

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