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    Folding AK?!?

    Interesting spot I witnessed recently.

    12 left in a €550 3 day game

    prizes 1k for 10th - 15k for 1st

    It is effectively the bubble, because a deal will be done to pay the bubble

    there is 1.5m in play so average is 125k, there are 4 or 5 shorties with 50/60k

    the blinds are 3k/6k with a 500 ante

    I've got 250k and would be viewed as active and i'm in the BB with AKo
    The button has 250k and is a good solid winning player


    He raises the button to 18k
    I make it 44k from the BB
    He ships

    Well...

    #2
    I don't like 3betting if you are folding to the shove. I don't think it makes sense to do that. That being said, I'd just call now without having done the sums on it. We need a little over 40% and AK usually has about 42-44% against aggro people in this sorta situation. Actually, that's getting a little close for comfort given that its bubble time and you both have decent stacks, so I think a fold is better, and hence a 3b is bad, and I'd either flat preflop, 3b shove or 3b a good bit bigger to like 60k or so so we can have a better 3b range, which includes AK as a 3b/call.

    Looking at those options, the bigger 3b looks best with these stacks at bubble time.
    Foldaramus et foldarabimus

    Comment


      #3
      When you say "active", have you been acdtively 3-betting preflop and defending your blinds aggressively? I don't think I can ever find a fold after 3-betting with your stack esp in a blind/button battle. If he's a decent reg he can be shipping light for a load of reasons.

      My head's a bit scatty atm but def call ftw! Only 2 hands I don't want to see really and should you win thisd you'll have 1/3 the chips in play allowing you to stick on the pumping tunes and crush.
      Last edited by 72over; 27-01-10, 17:17.
      It's all an illusion

      Comment


        #4
        i'm not 100% sure on the 3b size - if nicnic is about he can clarify

        also i forgot to mention it's six-handed (obv!)

        Comment


          #5
          I think your 3 bet size is good.

          Given the situation you've described I'd probably call and jump into the side event right away.
          We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then is not an act, but a habit.

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by TommyGunne View Post
            I don't like 3betting if you are folding to the shove. I don't think it makes sense to do that...
            This is the bit I find interesting:
            you have 40+ bigs (and it's 40 Bigs effective) -the ave is 20 (great structure)...and it's the bubble

            AK oop? well you HAVE to 3b (i think?)

            so a 3b will cost you ~9 bb's - putting 9 of 40+ at risk

            when a good solid player then 4b jams 40bbs at you, not considering folding is suicide:

            his range imo
            AA
            KK
            QQ
            JJ
            AK
            AQ
            some spassy bluff
            (i wouldn't see anything wrong with putting equall weight on the above 7 holdings)

            so you beat 2, flip with 2, chop 1 and are crushed by 2


            hmmmm??

            edit: i really think that when icm is taken into account it's a snap fold??

            Comment


              #7
              q. How easy is it to pick up chips without taking this spot?
              Im all for playing for the win in tournaments but if its easy enough to rape the bubble by folding here i wouldnt think its too bad, youve got 34 big blinds if you fold and unless you have history with this player 4bet shoving air your flipping at best, right?
              If its not an easy table to pick up chips you got to take these spots to get chips but if your dominating a table pre and on flops its not a good spot.
              4 months ago i would of just snap called but now id weigh it up like ive described.

              Comment


                #8
                interesting

                is this just not a bit of bb/bttn stuff

                its a snap call for me and just be ready to get your coat

                on the other side of things it is the bubble and a fold here will get you into the money if you don't get blinded out first. cos lets be honest here what is your calling range?? if you can't call with this.

                you can make an argument for laying down any hand.
                i was watching a team event on tv lately and a guy holding AA was facing an call that put him allin and he had to call a timeout to confer with his team mates on whether or not to call



                "Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by bops View Post
                  Interesting spot I witnessed recently.

                  12 left in a €550 3 day game

                  prizes 1k for 10th - 15k for 1st

                  It is effectively the bubble, because a deal will be done to pay the bubble

                  there is 1.5m in play so average is 125k, there are 4 or 5 shorties with 50/60k

                  the blinds are 3k/6k with a 500 ante

                  I've got 250k and would be viewed as active and i'm in the BB with AKo
                  The button has 250k and is a good solid winning player


                  He raises the button to 18k
                  I make it 44k from the BB
                  He ships

                  Well...
                  Sherlock Holmes says this wasn't you in the hand :-)

                  I don't mind the play so far, and i'd fold to the shove now. I reckon he shows up with AA/KK more than AQ/AJ and I'm not a fan of flipping against 1010-QQ this deep at this stage.

                  Seems like a really flat payout?

                  Comment


                    #10
                    I agree with TG/Noel your 3 bet sizing is on the small side which could be inducing the shove and factoring in you have been very active it looks like your making a stand/move in the BB.

                    Suck it up and get them in imo
                    Last edited by Jackyback; 27-01-10, 23:41.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      ok

                      the general consensus is that a call is the way to go here and that a bigger re-raise preflop would have also been a better play.

                      what about a shove in this spot as a bigger raise would represent 25-30% of his chips and should the bttn come over the top we are probably getting the right odds to call.

                      then on another angle if we were holding a pp instead of ak how big a pair would we need before feeling comfortable making a re-raise or pushing in this spot.



                      "Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by bops View Post
                        his range imo
                        AA
                        KK
                        QQ
                        JJ
                        AK
                        AQ
                        some spassy bluff
                        (i wouldn't see anything wrong with putting equall weight on the above 7 holdings)

                        so you beat 2, flip with 2, chop 1 and are crushed by 2


                        hmmmm??

                        edit: i really think that when icm is taken into account it's a snap fold??
                        We're favourite over that range even without any bluffs taken into account.

                        Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

                        801,358,272 games 0.750 secs 1,068,477,696 games/sec

                        Board:
                        Dead:

                        equity win tie pots won pots tied
                        Hand 0: 49.894% 38.02% 11.88% 304659576 95172708.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
                        Hand 1: 50.106% 38.23% 11.88% 306353280 95172708.00 { AKo }


                        Adding in TT makes you a 49% dog.


                        We need 40.8% discarding ICM. If we take ICM back in, its gonna be damn close, or even a fold, cos its big stack vs big stack on the bubble.

                        So if AKo is close to a fold here, surely something is wrong with how we played the hand.... Firstly, if we think that AKo should be in our 3b/folding range, we've gone horribly wrong. If we think that then we should just flat it. That was how I was getting to flatting being a better option than making it 44k.

                        But then you notice that 44k is very small, and it doesn't really make too much sense to make it that small oop with the stack sizes like they are. You can afford to make it a little bit more and it certainly not be a mistake, and imo be slightly better. Making it bigger has a number of benefits. 1) He flats less, which means we're in a horrible position less. 2) By making it bigger it means that we can take AK back into our 3betting range, where it should be anyway, because we can obv 3bet it profitably cos his range will be wide enough, and we can then call profitably against a nitty range (I would expect a real person's range would be quite a deal wider than the nitty one given. It would include all the hands given, but it would certainly include a lot more hands that wouldn't be in 100% of the time. Like I think we do see a good few bluff shoves and stuff lik AJs cos its such a good spot to do it.) So that means that our 3betting range is now a lot better as well.

                        That being said, in this hand I'd have snapped the 4b, cos there is no chance that I'd 3bet without knowing exactly what I'm going to do. Thats the real point. 3betting and then wondering what the hell your going to do after he shoves is silly. Its similar to people taking time to make a decision after 4betting 100bb deep. You should have no decision cos you've already made up your mind before 4betting. Similarly here, if you 3bet AK, it must be with snapping off a 4b in mind. 3betting and taking more than 10 seconds to call would be a travesty! If you don't want to call a shove, then just call. AK is too strong to fold to a 4b shove. 3betting a little bigger means that he will feel like he can exploit ICM considerations a little less, and it means your range can look a lot better for 3betting given that you don't have to fold too much of it knowing that ICM murders bigstacks on the bubble.

                        I'd be interested to see if suilen or drjff or other tourney guys would consider 3b shoving this deep though....
                        Foldaramus et foldarabimus

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Im playing this as you did as regards 3 betting.

                          Without getting to deep into it im folding 85-90% of the time here to the all in.

                          As said allready your racing at best.

                          As to the small % of the time i do call it will be due to reads ive picked up on the player from been on the table with him.
                          Pm for rakeback deals

                          Comment


                            #14
                            if you're short stacked, you could push, but on the bubble, like everyone else has said, ideally dont pick a race with the other big stack.

                            Also agree with the preflop betting. 3b should be ready to push shorthanded. by 3betting, you're either getting a fold or a push in this scenario imo. Would obviously need to know more about the history of the table to know who youre playing against better. Still, by avoiding a large overbet preflop, you saved yourself the opportunity to know how serious villain was without overcomitting. Tough call.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Snap his arm off ..... 3 bet folding AK btn vs bb 40bbs deep is beyond awful

                              As mentioned above you are ahead of the range you posted for the villain and if he is a decent winning player surely he is capable if 4b shoving wiiiide here particularly on the bubble. You also mention you are viewed as active, CALL and win all the gold

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Originally posted by TommyGunne View Post
                                That being said, in this hand I'd have snapped the 4b, cos there is no chance that I'd 3bet without knowing exactly what I'm going to do. Thats the real point. 3betting and then wondering what the hell your going to do after he shoves is silly. Its similar to people taking time to make a decision after 4betting 100bb deep. You should have no decision cos you've already made up your mind before 4betting. Similarly here, if you 3bet AK, it must be with snapping off a 4b in mind. 3betting and taking more than 10 seconds to call would be a travesty! If you don't want to call a shove, then just call. AK is too strong to fold to a 4b shove. 3betting a little bigger means that he will feel like he can exploit ICM considerations a little less, and it means your range can look a lot better for 3betting given that you don't have to fold too much of it knowing that ICM murders bigstacks on the bubble.
                                This times a thousand. Aside from this situation, this point here is so much more important. You shouldn't have a decision here, before you 3 bet literally say in your head "3 bet/fold" or "3 bet/call" with whatever hand you have, especially if it's a situation where your opponent will most likely just shove or fold. You should already have made your decision before your opponent even has. With AK here our options are 3 bet/call and just flat pre, there's no point 3 betting then worrying about the shove because our hand is just way to good to be 3 bet/folding. So decide already what his likely shove range is, decide if you think getting it in is good or not, and then make your decision.

                                I also think your range for him here is way too tight unless you've reads otherwise, especially if you've both been active. You're in the most 'obvious' 3 bet spot for want of a better word, and this is the spot where his 4 bet range will be at it's absolute widest.
                                "In the world, there are many kings but there is only one God. I am God, I am El Tren" :{)

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by DarvinMoon View Post
                                  Snap his arm off ..... 3 bet folding AK btn vs bb 40bbs deep is beyond awful
                                  your name suits you in a $ game yes obv, but in this spot no - i'm not saying that a fold is correct, but a call is def not a snap

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Bops talking about ICM and $EV, the games really are getting bad

                                    Opr

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      The problem is if you wanna 3 bet/fold AK here then what is it you want to gain by 3 betting?
                                      "In the world, there are many kings but there is only one God. I am God, I am El Tren" :{)

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        I much prefer a 3bet shove and anything else will put you in spots like this

                                        put i think calling is the best line pre in this spot


                                        online i'd break my mouse calling, live i sigh and fold
                                        http://drjff.blogspot.com/

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          If you don't want to get the money all in, then you shouldn't be 3betting. End of. What's the point in turning AK into a bluff?

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Why do we credit the button with a hand. Surely at bubble time the mind games and manouvering to get into position for FT comes into consideration.
                                            I defo think you have to 3b from the BB here but i dont think its a snap fold. If we percieve him as a good player and he percieves us a good player he will think that we're just protecting our blind and that a shove will make us fold out everything up to 22-99 or something like a8-aj.
                                            I hate folding most of the time but with our stack we can cruise into the money and be in a decent position come the FT however what appeals to me more would be having 500k and bully the crap outta a ft and heading for a big score.
                                            Table dynamics come into play also and has he been active during the last few hands and also how active is he from the button.
                                            To conclude i think i make the call and wath his bag of spanners outdraw me.
                                            "Quitters never win, Winners never quit."

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by bops View Post
                                              your name suits you in a $ game yes obv, but in this spot no - i'm not saying that a fold is correct, but a call is def not a snap
                                              Bops folding AK pre u losing your mojo ........just kidding tricky spot alright
                                              with 200 k behind prob just let it go too....let shorties go to war.wait for better spot with that stack ..head to final table happy days.
                                              apologies bops only saw that u witnessed, recently on post.
                                              Last edited by BROFISH; 04-02-10, 03:04. Reason: reread post,only saw i witnessed from bopps.sry

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                button vs blind, esp if u have an active image, this is a snap call.
                                                your 3 bet raising here to induce a ship with such a strong hand given the btn/bb dynamics and your loose image.
                                                i really hate folding here. theres about 100k your leaving out there by folding, and you have a premium hand thats likely ahead, and if not prob racing.
                                                im calling pretty quick.

                                                also, i hate 3 betting shipping pre with the ak,you fold out almost all worse and in make sure villian plays perfectly in a position where he can often make a mistake by shoving lightish pre to a normal 3 bet, u have a premium hand deep in a big mtt, u want some action and in a spot where people can often think u are at it, playing back light, esp given image, this is almost perfect.
                                                cant blame villian at all for thinking his AQ, AJ or 88 99 is ahead here or has fold equity imo.
                                                Last edited by Norwichfanrob; 04-02-10, 21:24.

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