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I'm a maniac, maniac on the dancefloor

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    I'm a maniac, maniac on the dancefloor

    I just sat down a little while ago. The table is pretty deep, and there's one guy making ridiculous raises; like opening anywhere from 2 - 10bbs. This goes on for a while, a few people shove over him and he folds. I don't get to see a single hand go to showdown. He is opening about 30% of pots at a rough guess, he is folding a good bit. Still 25 50.

    Utg makes its 2 (small for him), folded to me and I make it 7 with AKo. He calls.

    Pot is 14.75


    Flop is 365r. He bets 15. I have 42 left. What to do!

    #2
    Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
    I just sat down a little while ago. The table is pretty deep, and there's one guy making ridiculous raises; like opening anywhere from 2 - 10bbs. This goes on for a while, a few people shove over him and he folds. I don't get to see a single hand go to showdown. He is opening about 30% of pots at a rough guess, he is folding a good bit. Still 25 50.

    Utg makes its 2 (small for him), folded to me and I make it 7 with AKo. He calls.

    Pot is 14.75


    Flop is 365r. He bets 15. I have 42 left. What to do!
    Ah he thinks you have missed that flop and you have fuck all, (which he is correct) shove
    Her sky-ness
    © 5starpool

    Comment


      #3
      First I add him to my buddy list.
      Second I say a sincere prayer that wherever he's getting the cash to splash out on poker may long continue.
      Third I fold.

      From the hands you've seen, where he sees strength by others he folds. Also, here, he has calmed down his opening raise, so he either wants action for his big hand or he has a hand like a small pair or suited connectors and knows he must get to a flop, or much less likely, he's tired of throwing away money and has really slowed down.

      You 3bet correctly, missed all, and he wants to buy the pot. Let him. He'll pay you off when you hit and you have position on him, so sit back and take your share at a later stage.

      Comment


        #4
        you cannot really call off here. no value in shoving either. its a standard fold. the donkey out played you.

        Comment


          #5
          Fold. Not even a hand worth thinking about. Just hope to hit and stack him next time.

          Comment


            #6
            I'd call/call if I'd some sort of reads that he was spewy post. Think shoving utterly sucks.
            Foldaramus et foldarabimus

            Comment


              #7
              I shoved, he called with JTo and by some miracle managed to not bink a ten or a jack.

              I just thought there was too much chance he was bluffing, and even if had an overpair/pair I would have reasonable equity. Hard to know what his ranges are before hand.

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
                I shoved, he called with JTo and by some miracle managed to not bink a ten or a jack.

                I just thought there was too much chance he was bluffing, and even if had an overpair/pair I would have reasonable equity. Hard to know what his ranges are before hand.
                ah you taught me well
                Her sky-ness
                © 5starpool

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
                  I shoved, he called with JTo and by some miracle managed to not bink a ten or a jack.

                  I just thought there was too much chance he was bluffing, and even if had an overpair/pair I would have reasonable equity. Hard to know what his ranges are before hand.
                  My initial reaction was that you were ahead, then I started to think that it's way too much guesswork (which you more or less just said due to no showdown thus far).. It's a fold though, there'll be plenty other easier spots against this guy.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by mugsy View Post
                    you cannot really call off here. no value in shoving either. its a standard fold. the donkey out played you.
                    I don't see how we can say to fold because he out played us.
                    That's only true if we fold a better hand (vrs his range). If have beat his range we call, to prevent that from happening.

                    Based on his description I'm torn between shovign andf calling. But not folding.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      I don't see the point in calling. He's actually getting nearly the right price to call with two unconnected cards, and usually he will have a bit more equity. Plus there has to be a chance he folds a pair sometimes (obv not this villain, but we don't know his calling range

                      Comment


                        #12
                        I think a lot of time this is a fish with a pair who doesn't want to let AK catch up, so although it looks great after the fact, it might be a bad shove/call against the villains range as we know it at the time. Also, I could not believe I didn't get drawn out on.

                        I had a funnier hand later in the session, different fish.

                        I raise pre, bet the flop, bet the turn; consider betting the river and then decide to give up + check back river with my 6 hi. I win Funny how if I had bet the river I would have been congratulating myself on an awesome 4 barrel bluff

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Calling is terrible.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
                            I don't see the point in calling. He's actually getting nearly the right price to call with two unconnected cards, and usually he will have a bit more equity. Plus there has to be a chance he folds a pair sometimes (obv not this villain, but we don't know his calling range
                            also@mickste 'calling is terrible'

                            is calling bad because he can bluff us off so many turns and if he checks say a 8,9,Q turn for eg we're likely to ck behind giving him a chance to catch up?

                            would be great if u could elaborate a bit more as i often end up going for a call and reevaluate line.
                            does the fact that occasionally we can get him to fold better at least some amount make this a shove? or let me put it this way if we knew he never folds a pair but still has lots of air in his range do we still shove???
                            Last edited by bustamoves; 12-03-12, 05:28.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Yes bustamoves , calling is terrible because what is your plan for the turn if he leads again.Youre going to fold nearly all the time because of the situation you have described.Shoving in this spot means you are taking away his options on later streets which would put you in a more difficult position for the exact reasons you have stated.Shoving isn't ideal against said villian but is a lot better than calling.This kind of villian will have air in his range but from description isn't going to fold a pair , so trying to get him to fold a pair is tough.

                              You cant really call and revaluate here because of your stack size as well.
                              Last edited by mickste; 12-03-12, 05:42.

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Well the perceived advantage to call, call is that it keeps all of his bluffs in his range. We can never call, fold, because the pot will be too big at that stage (Bar some special read on his play that we can't have at this stage). Call, call seems better in some respects than Shove because when we shove he may fold his bluffs. However with the pot the size as it is, and the fact that unless his hand is dominated he has 6 outs, I think that it's a poor choice since him folding his bluffs is fine.

                                I just worked out the maths quickly - apologies if this is wrong but I'm pretty tired

                                With TJo, if he folds we win $30

                                If he calls all in, we play a $100 pot with about 72% equity. This gives us 72$ on average.
                                We start with $50, to that's a gain of $22

                                So actually he is making a $8 mistake by folding.

                                If he has 99, if he folds we win $30

                                If he calls all in, we play a $100 pot with about 25% equity. This gives us 25$ on average. This has an EV of - 25. You don't need to be a wizard to see that he needs to fold half the time with a pair to make it roughly neutral. In all likelyhood the chance of him folding a pair is very very slim.

                                So anyway yeah, I remember this point coming up before, but when the pot gets this big taking it down uncontested is really important, and it's more important the more equity your opponent hand, (which in this hand is always going to be huge)

                                Funnily enough I just ran a crazy man's range through pokerstove - it's almost exactly 50 50

                                Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

                                5,580,630 games 0.023 secs 242,636,086 games/sec

                                Board: 3c 6h 5d
                                Dead:

                                equity win tie pots won pots tied
                                Hand 0: 48.927% 46.45% 02.48% 2591994 138441.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A5o+, A3o-A2o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
                                Hand 1: 51.073% 48.59% 02.48% 2711754 138441.00 { AKo }



                                So anyway to sum up, call call is bad because shoving gets him to make a mistake, if he bets, then sometimes gives up on the turn with bluffs, but continues when he makes a pair (which is basically how I assume most people will play), call call is terrible because we are narrowing the range we are getting it in against.


                                I think one of the deciding factors in this hand should be that we dominate all other unpaired aces; that's basically the best scenario for our hand.

                                Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

                                106,920 games 0.001 secs 106,920,000 games/sec

                                Board: 3c 6h 5d
                                Dead:

                                equity win tie pots won pots tied
                                Hand 0: 15.101% 12.12% 02.98% 12960 3186.00 { AQo }
                                Hand 1: 84.899% 81.92% 02.98% 87588 3186.00 { AKo }


                                Shoving AT is actually a losing play (ignoring what is in the pot already) against the same mental range I assigned earlier

                                Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

                                10,869,705,792 games 0.001 secs 10,869,705,792,000 games/sec

                                Board:
                                Dead:

                                equity win tie pots won pots tied
                                Hand 0: 41.755% 39.51% 02.24% 4294722900 243925110.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
                                Hand 1: 58.245% 56.00% 02.24% 6087132672 243925110.00 { ATo }


                                Apologies for rambling nature of this post

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Also our equity will generally be better than in all those scenarios above because he is going to get it in preflop with high pairs, and is not going to donk lead with sets, straights or two pairs.

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Now this is why I type in your strategy threads - always a good chance I'll learn something.
                                    By instinct rather than doing the numbers I would have folded here and waited for what I thought was a better chance to stack him.

                                    I'd be interested to know how much we have to tighten the maniacs range so that it becomes a fold.

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      I generally just fold this without thinking too much about it, but if this was live there would be serious value in putting the guy on major tilt by giving a speech before calling. I guess the same principle applies online but is harder to pull off, unless you know he speaks English and is reading the chatbox.
                                      "I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        It all depends what our plan is. If you feel like you can get him to fold a better hand like a mid sized overpair to the board then shoving is good. From the description I doubt the Villain would fold much though. So my post is based heavily on the assumption that villain does not fold any hand we beat.

                                        Given that I like calling. We keep his air hands in. Also we get a better idea of the hand on the turn and river given we are in position and he will have to act first. May become much clearer that he is bluffing and then we can call him down more profitably than if we just shoved. On the flip side it might become more obvious that we are beat in the hand and we can fold. There is the strong likelihood that a street will be taken out and that way we can get to the river with alot more options in front of us and information than if we just shove over him.

                                        Overall I think we lose value shoving with this hand in this spot against Villain. If villain is bluffing we make life very hard for him by just flatting in position.

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Downtown View Post
                                          It all depends what our plan is. If you feel like you can get him to fold a better hand like a mid sized overpair to the board then shoving is good. From the description I doubt the Villain would fold much though. So my post is based heavily on the assumption that villain does not fold any hand we beat.

                                          Given that I like calling. We keep his air hands in. Also we get a better idea of the hand on the turn and river given we are in position and he will have to act first. May become much clearer that he is bluffing and then we can call him down more profitably than if we just shoved. On the flip side it might become more obvious that we are beat in the hand and we can fold. There is the strong likelihood that a street will be taken out and that way we can get to the river with alot more options in front of us and information than if we just shove over him.

                                          Overall I think we lose value shoving with this hand in this spot against Villain. If villain is bluffing we make life very hard for him by just flatting in position.
                                          Did you see my post above? If those numbers are right shoving is better than calling against villains bluffing range, because except when he has a dominated ace, he is making a mistake by folding.

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
                                            Did you see my post above? If those numbers are right shoving is better than calling against villains bluffing range, because except when he has a dominated ace, he is making a mistake by folding.
                                            No. Wrote my post without reading the other replies.

                                            Edit: just read it there. Does the maths change if you expect him to never give up on turn when he misses?

                                            So anyway to sum up, call call is bad because shoving gets him to make a mistake, if he bets, then sometimes gives up on the turn with bluffs, but continues when he makes a pair (which is basically how I assume most people will play), call call is terrible because we are narrowing the range we are getting it in against.
                                            I was under the assumption that this villain would never give up. If the above is true that he gives up on turns he misses then shoving > calling
                                            Last edited by Downtown; 12-03-12, 14:18.

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Downtown View Post
                                              No. Wrote my post without reading the other replies.

                                              Edit: just read it there. Does the maths change if you expect him to never give up on turn when he misses?
                                              If he always just barrels the next card then the maths is exactly the same, the same amount of money goes in, and we have the same equity

                                              Originally posted by Downtown View Post
                                              I was under the assumption that this villain would never give up. If the above is true that he gives up on turns he misses then shoving > calling
                                              Yeah I don't know, I mean you'd have to think that he gives up some of the time. If he shuts down on all aces and some kings that is an absolute disaster for us. Mind you he called all in with J hi so god only knows what he is going to do really!

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