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Keane & Trytime's Lock of the Week

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    I have bets on Kildare, Mayo and Antrim tonight. I'll write them up tomoro.

    Comment


      Ship ship.

      Comment


        On Donegal +3 @ evens. Late team news has made this an even better bet. Check twitter if interested.

        Comment


          Like Louth +4 @evens as well but not enough to take it on.

          Comment


            Followed on Donegal. Early goal too. Gogogo.
            Profit before people.

            Comment


              Originally posted by The Situation View Post
              Followed on Donegal. Early goal too. Gogogo.
              Hup!

              Comment


                Longford +1 @6/5 with Bluesquare looks a misprice as well, they should be favourites.

                Comment


                  Winner alright. N1
                  Profit before people.

                  Comment


                    tyty

                    Comment


                      Have a tonne of updating to do here. I was down home in Tralee for the weekend and internet was a disaster so wasn't able to post reasoning for bets or BR updates as bets were going on and what not but I'll try to get it all updated asap.

                      I'll throw up some of my notes from the football bets for a bit of interest for people since I had a pretty good strikerate.

                      Comment


                        First off just going to try and add all the bets we put down over the weekend to the list and then maybe talk through some of them.

                        Here are the bets that were settled over the weekend:

                        France -7 v Ire @evens for 2 units - loss
                        France/France HT/FT @21/25 for 2 units - loss
                        Tullamore -4.5 vs Dublin Dragons (IAFA) - 4 units @5/6 - win
                        Spurs +0.25 vs Man United(EPL) – 1 unit @evens - loss
                        Armagh vs Mayo (NFL D1) - 1 unit @23/20 - win
                        Antrim -2 vs Offaly (NFL D3) – 1 unit @evens - win
                        Donegal +3 vs Cork (NFL D1) – 1 unit @evens - win
                        Longford +1 vs Roscommon (NFL D3) – 4 units @6/5 - win
                        Kildare vs Meath (NFL D2) – 2.81 units @6/5 – win
                        Laois +3 vs Dublin (NFL D2) – 0.5 units @11/10 – loss
                        Kildare, Dublin, Galway treble (NFL D1/D2) - 1 unit @2.76/1 - loss

                        A good skep of bets there, some good winners and some frustrating losers.

                        I'll let Alan do the post-mortem on the rugby bets, the only comment I'd pass is that we were a bit lazy in handicapping it, relying heavily on our appraisal of the postponed match when we should probably have blank slated it and done the work again. We should have laid the HT/FT bet based on the same lack of proper, up to date analysis as well. That's my fault, I was meant to be watching it and tbh got distracted by the Kerry vs Down game yesterday (my cousin had a stormer ) and forgot about it.

                        Great result in the IAFL game, credit entirely due to Bubbleking, hopefully we can continue to make some money on that market until they get wise.

                        The Spurs bet was one that just looked like value on the home underdog, probably won't go broke backing home dogs too fast but could definitely make money fading Spurs @ home to United for the next 1,000,000 iterations. lolSpurs. Annoyingly I was also on the overs for this game on Betfair, there was a ton of action available at (afair) 2.02 and I looked to back at 2.04 just expecting it to be matched and it never did. Would have made a tiny profit on the game instead of a unit loss which is pretty damn aggravating.

                        I'll give the football bets a post/posts of their own as I don't want a massive wall of text for people.

                        Anyways, to summarise the weekends' results:

                        Total Bets: 11
                        Total Staked: 20.31 units
                        Strikerate: 54.5%
                        Returns: 13.81 + 3.33 + 1.15 + 1 + 1 + 4.8 + 3.372 = 28.462 units
                        Profit: 8.462 units

                        Comment


                          Laois +3 vs Dublin (NFL D2) – 0.5 units @11/10 – loss

                          My Laois +3 bet was admittedly a bit of an odd one considering I had Dublin in a treble opposing them, but I'll try to justify it FWIW. I mentioned in my post last week detailing the treble that the Kildare game was the main value bet in there and that the Dublin and Galway prices were just assumed to be value due to Boyles being larger priced on them than other bookies and we were essentially using the large Kildare edge to multiply the small edges on the other two into something worthwhile.

                          Once the teams were announced for this I went back to look at this one in more detail. Firstly Laois, they were pretty much full strength besides the injury to corner forward David Conway. Conway had been in very good form in the opening two games so was a bit of a loss. His replacement was Billy Sheehan, who is actually a Tralee man so I’d know his game pretty well. Billy is an excellent athlete and very talented footballer who has become a bit of a workhorse in the Laois setup, which is a bit of a pity, but he’s a pretty decent replacement to be bringing in.

                          Dublin’s lineup had a bit more to look at of interest. First thing of note was the fact that from 1 – 9 they were missing seven players from the AI final side – GK, two CBs, two WBs, two MFs. The great thing about the Dublin panel is that for pretty much everybody bar Bernard and Alan Brogan they have replacements that are close to the quality of the first choice players, but I still thought missing so many was likely to cause problems.

                          A lot of what Dublin do tactically is predicated on Stephen Cluxton’s restarts, which – along with the fact that he’s a free taker – make him the most important GK in football. The spine of the defence – O’Carroll and Brennan – is first choice and gives a decent foundation to the backline, but considering the losses of Fitzsimons, O’Sullivan, Nolan and McCarthy from the flanks, somewhere in those positions you’ve essentially got a tenth choice defender lurking. Added to that the possibility that these six backs might not be the most cohesive as a unit as they’re such a thrown together bunch and I figured this had to be somewhat of a step down from a strongest six.

                          Midfield was Fennell and McConnell in for Bastick – who’s yet to play league this season affair – and MD McAuley who would appear to have just been dropped. There’s pretty much nothing between any of the four so I didn’t spend too much time worrying about the MF.

                          Cahill does an important job from CHF when he plays as well but his loss is mitigated against by the presence of a very different, but equally effective player in McMenamon. In fact, McMenamon is probably a better player to have in there when the Brogans are missing. Bryan Cullen is a fairly overrated player and isn’t much of a loss even compared to Paul Brogan, both are guys who are going to do dirty work moderately well. Up top you’re still missing the last two players of the year, so they’re obviously a big loss. Mossy Quinn and Eoghan O’Gara I would consider major step downs in quality.

                          Having weighed up the team news, factored in home advantage, form, etc. I made Dublin slight favourites, and seeing Laois available @ 11/10 +3 I thought this was a +EV spot. I wasn’t massively confident in it having only seen Laois play properly once this season, and because they have a tendency to vary pretty wildly form good to terrible, so I only sprung for half a unit.

                          I haven’t had a chance to watch the game back yet, but from following the updates on twitter it looks like this wasn’t a terrible spot at all. Laois seem to have been under pressure throughout but hung in there quite well. The fact that Eoghan O’Gara scored 1-5 and Dublin still only came out with five to spare makes me pretty confident that I was on the right side, because that’s the very definition of a statistical anomaly.

                          If there’s something to learn from this game it’s probably not to overestimate the loss that some of Dublin’s expected first choice guys are compared to their replacements, there’s very little between guy number one and guy number two in a lot of spots.
                          Last edited by Keane; 05-03-12, 16:20.

                          Comment


                            Most of your logic stacks up there I would say Keano to be fair.
                            Would disagree on Billy Sheehan, he has no impact at this level these days IMO. Apart from that though I would have been on the same wave-length for that game and to be fair I don't think many would have foreseen O'Gara putting on the display he did which was ultimately the difference between the teams.
                            Some crazy results in the football league this weekend. Galway losing to Westmeath, Cavan beating Sligo (formbook out the window in those 2 games). Waterford beat Wicklow aswell, but had heard Wicklow lost to Offaly (who are poor right now)last week in a challenge by 5, so had a little bit on W'ford as an outside bet, Clare beating Limerick was another slight upset, but Clare have a few serious footballers in their prime right now and Limerick are missing their best player and talisman John Galvin badly. Clare are ones to watch on the betting market in their remaining games Keane..if they sharpen up the shooting they will win more than lose I can tell you that...they were 6/4 for that game the weekend for example and should have won by a lot more according to anyone I spoke to.
                            "Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC

                            Comment


                              I have a few more reports coming up that I'd love you to take a look at if you get a chance, as someone who travels to a lot more games than I do you've definitely got some insight that I'd love to get.

                              Point taken on Billy Sheehan, would be a symptom of not having seen too much of Laois in the last year or two, definitely the sort of thing I could use help sharpening up on.

                              I hear Padraig Clancy also went off at HT which would have been a big enough loss.

                              Comment


                                Armagh vs Mayo (NFL D1) - 1 unit @23/20 - win

                                This one was all about public perception really.

                                Armagh were the most public team in football after their opening two NFL games. The first was a lucky draw against a Cork team that had Paul Kerrigan sent off for nothing at the end of a first half they completely dominated only to have Armagh come back with the numerical advantage for over half the game. The second was a win over a Kerry side palpably lacking focus having achieved the victory their entire preseason had been geared towards over Dublin the previous week. You were basically looking at a situation where the furore over two unexpectedly good results seemed to have made people forget that a month ago this is a team that was many peoples’ tip for the drop.

                                Mayo had a decent win against a Laois side in Rd1. This was a victory that everyone would have been expecting as nobody rates Laois worth a damn, and it passed off pretty much unnoticed. This in spite of the fact that Laois looked to be motoring well against Donegal in Rd2. In their next game, Mayo definitely lowered their stock in the eyes of Johnny Public when they sent out a fairly heavily weakened team against Dublin in their Rd2 match and looked woeful up until the game was abandoned. Their lineup when announced for the game against Armagh was considerably stronger, although I suspect the type of people the bookie sets his line for will have missed this fact for the most part.

                                Looking at lineups, Armagh were still missing half a team of players that vary from decent first teamers to downright excellent players. Up front, they were missing what may possibly end up being their entire championship FF line in McDonnell, Jamie Clarke and Eugene McVerry. The first two need no comment, but McVerry’s loss was softened a touch by the return of Gavin McParland who is of a similar level and had been missing. Besides those three they were also missing goalkeeping stalwart Paul Hearty, an excellent young CB in James Morgan and, crucially, Aaron Kernan and Ciaran McKeever in the half back line. These are two players that are very difficult to replace. Kernan is up there with the best WBs in the game, and McKeever is not far behind him quality-wise. He had been the defensive lynchpin in the first two games and a real leader, particularly against Cork, and his loss is a big one.

                                As for Mayo, they were as near to full strength as makes little odds. Seamus O’Shea would maybe be marginally better than his brother at midfield, but it’s arguable. Not much between the two of them and Barry Moran in any case. Cillian O’Connor was seen as a slight loss because of frees but Andy Moran and Con Mort should be decent enough. O’Connor, who was young player of the year last year basically due to a complete lack of competition is a decent player, but not of as much importance as people would probably think based on that accolade.

                                Taking everything together I had Mayo as favourites for this one which obviously made the 23/20 about them straight up a very attractive price. As I’m only really getting started on HCing GAA I’m restraining myself in terms of bet size and only staked one unit here, but this would have been one I was very confident on.

                                Again, haven’t had a chance to watch this one back, but it appears that Mayo came out of the blocks very quickly and built up a good lead. Armagh came back a bit in the second half and had a good goal chance stopped that would have had them right back in it, but Mayo ran out comfortably enough in the end.

                                Comment


                                  Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                  I have a few more reports coming up that I'd love you to take a look at if you get a chance, as someone who travels to a lot more games than I do you've definitely got some insight that I'd love to get.

                                  Point taken on Billy Sheehan, would be a symptom of not having seen too much of Laois in the last year or two, definitely the sort of thing I could use help sharpening up on.

                                  I hear Padraig Clancy also went off at HT which would have been a big enough loss.
                                  Yeah I'll give you my tuppence worth on whatever you want, send em on.

                                  Billy, to be fair to him, had a few great games when he went to Laois first, but as time went by opposition have sussed him and his impact has dropped dramatically. He is still up to it to a certain extent, but he rarely does anything more than shovel the ball backwards, never takes on a man. Hard to know his best position either.

                                  Anyway, keep the project going and hope ye run well!
                                  "Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC

                                  Comment


                                    We're definitely going to have to start claiming one of our bets as our "Lock of the Week" just for comedy value alone.

                                    Comment


                                      Donegal +3 vs Cork (NFL D1) – 1 unit @evens - win,some good work there lads,was there a total points market on the above game,do ye know?
                                      Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                      Comment


                                        Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                        Donegal +3 vs Cork (NFL D1) – 1 unit @evens - win,some good work there lads,was there a total points market on the above game,do ye know?
                                        Pretty sure it was available alright but never looked at it tbh. I'll be writing up why I picked that bet later on FWIW.

                                        Comment


                                          Donegal +3 vs Cork (NFL D1) – 1 unit @evens - win

                                          Here's some of what I had for the Donegal vs Cork game.

                                          Lineups:
                                          Donegal:
                                          1. Paul Durcan
                                          2. Frank McGlynn
                                          3. Neil Mcgee
                                          4. Paddy Mc Grath
                                          5. Anthony Thompson
                                          6. Karl Lacey
                                          7. Leo Mcloone
                                          8. Rory Kavangh
                                          9. Neil Gallagher
                                          10. Mark McHugh
                                          11. Ryan Bradley
                                          12. Martin O’Reilly
                                          13. Dermot Molly
                                          14. Paddy Mc Brearty
                                          15. Adrian Hanlon

                                          Missing Players:
                                          Michael Murphy, Colm McFadden

                                          This is a strong team from 1-12, obviously lacking a scoring edge with the two absentees. Michael Murphy is the heartbeat of the team and is worth a lot. McFadden is an extremely selfish player who often displays poor decision making and shot selection. He is decent but overrated and isn't as much of a loss as will be made out, especially with McBrearty improving.

                                          Cork:
                                          Ken O Halloran, Ray Carey, Eoin O Mahony, Eoin Cotter, Noel O Leary, Graham Canty, Paudie Kissane, Alan O'Connor, Fintan Goold, Paul Kerrigan, Mark Collins, Patrick Kelly, Colm O'Neill, Donncha O'Connor, Barry O'Driscoll

                                          Missing Players:
                                          Michael Shields, Eoin Cadogan, Pearse O’Neill, Aidan Walsh, Ciaran Sheehan, Daniel Goulding

                                          We’re into uncharted territory at MF with Fintan Goold partnering AOC. He must be fifth choice MF. Walsh’s physicality would be a loss even with O’Neill replacing him, Goold is another step down. Shields and Cads are two of Cork’s best defenders but won’t be a huge loss considering Donegal’s weakened FF line. Two really good forwards being replaced by two somewhat unknown quantities.

                                          Other:
                                          Cork very public after destroying Down, but facing a very different animal in DNG. Down’s defensive frailties are well documented, while DNG should be way more organised with a more or less first choice 1 – 12. Cork struggled in the second half against an Armagh team that slowed them down and made it a dogged game, if there’s one thing Donegal will do after their poor opening performances it’s attempt to slow the game down.

                                          Cork’s typically ponderous build-up play will be something a DNG team used to dropping deep and crowding out the opposition offense should be well suited to. DNG are the ultimate anti-public team having completely failed to impress in their first two games.

                                          Add in the logistical nightmare of a trip from Cork to Ballybofey and this looks well set up for Donegal.

                                          Overall:
                                          I make Cork one or two point favourites, have staked a unit on Donegal +3 @ evens.
                                          As I posted earlier in the thread, there was late news on Twitter that Michael Murphy was starting, which sky-rocketed the EV of this bet, if it wasn't for my dodgy internet connection at home I would certainly have gone back in for more in this spot.

                                          Comment


                                            Right, there's been a bit of jiggery pokery with adding some money and such, but here's the setup now:

                                            Initial Bank: 106 units
                                            Current Bank: 87.03 units
                                            Value of BR plus Open Bets: 116.92
                                            Profit: -18.97 units

                                            At Risk: 29.89 units

                                            Bets In Play:
                                            Fermanagh to win the Ulster SFC - 2.5 units @50/1
                                            Donegal to win the Ulster SFC - 2.81 units @7/1
                                            Kildare to win the Leinster SFC - 3.33 units @ 7/2
                                            France to win the Six Nations - 2.04 units @ 7/4
                                            LA Clippers to win the Pacific Division (NBA) - 1.15 units @29/20
                                            Al Ferof to win Arkle Chase - 3.33 units @5/1 (PP Money back special)
                                            Miami to win the NBA - 3 units @13/8
                                            Ireland vs Scotland +10 - 5 units @10/11
                                            Hurricane Fly to win Champion Hurdle - 3.73 units @5/4 (WH special price)
                                            Other bets - 3 units

                                            We put a max bet on Scotland +10 vs Ireland because Alan happened to get the news about the O'Connell injury before/as it broke. I imagine we were going to back that line anyway but for the moment we've taken it just as a value bet with a view to laying some of it off, with the line having already moved in our favour as expected (8 point spread with Sporting Bet now).

                                            Comment


                                              Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                                              Worth siding with Parma in the evening kickoff against Fiorentina @2.36. Fiorentina have been dire on the road this season, only scoring in 2 of their 13 away games in all comps. They're without best player and leading scorer Jovetic too through injury, he's scored 12 of 25 league goals. Small saver bet on 0-0 @15/2.
                                              One unit on Parma DNB.

                                              Initial Bank: 106 units
                                              Current Bank: 86.03 units
                                              Value of BR plus Open Bets: 116.92
                                              Profit: -19.97 units

                                              At Risk: 30.89 units

                                              Bets In Play:
                                              Fermanagh to win the Ulster SFC - 2.5 units @50/1
                                              Donegal to win the Ulster SFC - 2.81 units @7/1
                                              Kildare to win the Leinster SFC - 3.33 units @ 7/2
                                              France to win the Six Nations - 2.04 units @ 7/4
                                              LA Clippers to win the Pacific Division (NBA) - 1.15 units @29/20
                                              Al Ferof to win Arkle Chase - 3.33 units @5/1 (PP Money back special)
                                              Miami to win the NBA - 3 units @13/8
                                              Ireland vs Scotland +10 - 5 units @10/11
                                              Hurricane Fly to win Champion Hurdle - 3.73 units @5/4 (WH special price)
                                              Other bets - 3 units
                                              Parma DNB to beat Fiorentina - 1 unit@4/7

                                              Comment


                                                We put a max bet on Scotland +10 vs Ireland because Alan happened to get the news about the O'Connell injury before/as it broke. I imagine we were going to back that line anyway but for the moment we've taken it just as a value bet with a view to laying some of it off, with the line having already moved in our favour as expected (8 point spread with Sporting Bet now).
                                                wouldnt underestimate murray not playing as well,he's a very aggressive,in your face kind of player,but that scottish back line the only thing stopping me at this stage

                                                ye might have a look at france-7 v england as well,i'm very close to pulling the trigger on this one,mainly based on the ireland/france stats in the breakdown,ireland had plenty of player attacking this in the first half,they had to win that dirty ball as their defence would be under pressure with the bodys Committed,with the half time lead ireland had,ireland didnt put the bodys in,france won the dirty ball and ireland failed to score!if the english play this game in the same way,and i think they will,i can see france turning over ball and counter-attacking and there one of the best at that,(50% of french tries were scored from turnover ball)worth a serious look imo!
                                                Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                Comment


                                                  We put a max bet on Scotland +10 vs Ireland because Alan happened to get the news about the O'Connell injury before/as it broke. I imagine we were going to back that line anyway but for the moment we've taken it just as a value bet with a view to laying some of it off, with the line having already moved in our favour as expected (8 point spread with Sporting Bet now).

                                                  just had a look back at the france/ireland game last weekend,dont think people realize how much effort the irish put in to this game,and now with sob out as well as other key players carrying Injuries into this game,throw in the cup final type of game ireland put in last weekend,as of now there's a little scotland + 10 left and a nice bit of + 9,wp lads!
                                                  Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                  Comment


                                                    Ok So W3 in the Super Rugby and i think ive got a grip of things enough to start stabbing 1/2 units.

                                                    First up Crusaders V Chiefs

                                                    Crusaders have come through two tough games away to Blues and Highlanders and are 1-1 so far. Both games came down to a score. Must be noted that Highlanders beat them up front last week, but at the same time Adam Thompson and co. are off to a flying start. This week sees the starting of in form Zac Guildford in the back 3 with Maitland and Dagg, arguably the fastest/lethal back 3 in club rugby and can easily swap positions for each other. The rest of the backline has being playing solid with Fruen running hard and is capable of breaking the line at any time, but will be up against SBW and Kahui (who havnt been in great form themselves) in the centres so he wont be running through them easily. In the halfbacks Bleyendaal has not been perfect with the placekicking but has been relatively solid overall. Ellis has been flawless in the opening 2 games so far.

                                                    Chiefs are after having a mixed start with a poor display against the Highlanders. However despite injuries to the likes of Masaga, Leonard and TightHead Afaiki, them seem to have bounced back from week 1. A real talent has been unearthed in Kerr-Barlow at SH in for Leonard, who can make deadly half breaks and is keen to offload to deep runners when he does. Ellis will have to be at his sharpest to keep him at bay. Cruden at 10 has been excellent from the tee, and his playmaking is improving well, he trumps Bleyendaal in the OH battle. The Chiefs back 3 were superb against the Blues last week with Robbie Robinson making deep runs from FB and any ball he gets from clearing kicks , expect him to run back often. He is a solid FB but i dont think he will keep the form of last week consistently. Tikoirotuma has done well to negate the loss of Masaga on the wing and scored in last weeks game but he doesnt seem to have the extra bit of class that Masaga brings on to the Chiefs, Guildford will be a big test for him. Nani-Williams is definitely the most on form of the back 3 and was outstanding last week, he is the danger man for the Crusaders with his elusive running, but due to his small size Dagg should be able to handle him. Crusaders win the battle of the back 3 for sure. I expect SBW to raise his game this week due to the fact he'll be playing against his old teamates.

                                                    Up front the Chiefs Tameifuna at TH did well considering Afaiki and Smith are both out with injury, but the Scrum will be under a bigger test this week compared to the blues off form performance last week. The Franks Bros + Flynn are starting this week with Owen back from injury. I expect the saders to edge the scrums for this game. In the SR Retallick has been excellent so far for the chiefs as has Donnelly for the Saders,. Crusaders lineout has been performing well so far and the return of Corey Flynn helps this even more. Crusaders pip them in the linout.

                                                    For the BR Read and Todd have been offloading well and strong at the breakdown. Discipline let Crusaders down at times last week but they will know to be extra careful this week due to the boot of Cruden. Latimer has been the best of the Chiefs BR with Messam just battering forward as usual but is limited after that. Again i expect Crusaders to win this battle
                                                    Weather doesnt seem to favor any team

                                                    365 has Crusaders -6 @ 19/20 I think they cover this due to their backline being able to run in tries all day long and a one try win is on the cards here.

                                                    OK time for a quick nap before the game.

                                                    The teams:

                                                    SPOILER




                                                    Crusaders: 15 Sean Maitland, 14 Israel Dagg, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Adam Whitelock, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Tyler Bleyendaal, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Matt Todd, 6 George Whitelock, 5 Tom Donnelly, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Ben Franks.
                                                    Replacements: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Sam Whitelock, 19 Luke Whitelock, 20 Willi Heinz, 21 Tom Taylor, 22 Tom Marshall.



                                                    Chiefs: 15 Robbie Robinson, 14 Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 13 Richard Kahui, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Tim Nanai-Williams, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Kane Thompson, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke, 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Mahonri Schwalger, 1 Arizona Taumalolo.
                                                    Replacements: 16 Hika Elliot, 17 Shane Cleaver, 18 Mike Fitzgerald, 19 Sam Cane, 20 Augustine Pulu, 21 Andrew Horrell, 22 Jackson Willison.


                                                    Initial Bank: 106 units
                                                    Current Bank: 85.53 units
                                                    Value of BR plus Open Bets: 116.92
                                                    Profit: -19.97 units

                                                    At Risk: 31.39 units

                                                    Bets In Play:
                                                    Fermanagh to win the Ulster SFC - 2.5 units @50/1
                                                    Donegal to win the Ulster SFC - 2.81 units @7/1
                                                    Kildare to win the Leinster SFC - 3.33 units @ 7/2
                                                    France to win the Six Nations - 2.04 units @ 7/4
                                                    LA Clippers to win the Pacific Division (NBA) - 1.15 units @29/20
                                                    Al Ferof to win Arkle Chase - 3.33 units @5/1 (PP Money back special)
                                                    Miami to win the NBA - 3 units @13/8
                                                    Ireland vs Scotland +10 - 5 units @10/11
                                                    Hurricane Fly to win Champion Hurdle - 3.73 units @5/4 (WH special price)
                                                    Other bets - 3 units
                                                    Parma DNB to beat Fiorentina - 1 unit@4/7
                                                    Crusaders -6 vs Chiefs - 0.5 unit @19/20
                                                    Last edited by trytime; 09-03-12, 04:43.

                                                    Comment


                                                      OK so for Wk4 were starting off with Chiefs Vs Brumbies.

                                                      While the Chiefs have started off with a loss in round one they have bounced back in rounds 2and 3 with impressive wins over the Blues and the Crusaders, arguably two of the best NZ teams. They are in great form now with very solid performances from the likes of SR Retallick , SH Kerr Barlow and Cruden with the boot. SBW has been getting into better form too in each game he plays as has Kahui(esp in defence) the Chiefs scrum is still very impressive with TH Ben Tameifuna scrummaging well with the vpowerful Taumalolo. I expect them to be in control over the brumbies Moore and Alexander.

                                                      The lineout is where the Chiefs will also have a good edge with Brodie Retallick arguably the best SR in this years tournament so far. However the demotion of No.8 Kane Thompson to the bench may hurt their jumping options a small bit. Messam going to 8 however is a good move re ballcarrying which is his best attribute. I expect him to pick and go a lot from the base of a stable/going forward Chiefs scrum setting up excellent ball for the half backs. Latimer has also been very solid around the fringes. The Brumbies pack is relatively unknown pack(minus the Front row) with a small amount of caps.

                                                      Another big point is that this game is the first real test for the brumbies as their two games(bye in WK2) have been against probably the two worst teams in the competition(and have been won by tight margins). Couple with the trek to NZ this week too.

                                                      A loss for the Brumbies is Robbie Coleman in the backs(who has looked excellent so far) Their backline big name Pat McCabe is returning from a shoulder injury and last week admitted he was protecting it a bit in the game vs the cheetahs. The brumbies lack top class players, even though they seem to have solid players in young Mogg and Speight but the Chiefs Backline trumps them big time.

                                                      The Brumbies have prided themselves with their pre season fitness and it has showed well in that they can finish tight games but again this must be put in perspective considering the opposition. What will be interesting will be the defensive tactics employed by the Brumbies from their crack team of coaches in the likes of Jake White , Gregan and Larkham to try and stop the chiefs potent attack.

                                                      Expect another big performance from Kerr Barlow at SH, hes going to keep Brumbies very honest at the fringes.

                                                      Very good weather too means that this game with excellent Nani Williams & Kahui on the wings could be on the end of very good forward ball and a lot of tries could be run in.

                                                      This home game for the Chiefs isnt on in Waikato Stadium a full crowd is expected at the Baypark Stadium an hour down the road from Hamilton. Standard HA should apply

                                                      Chiefs -13 V Brumbies for 1 unit on 365.
                                                      Teams
                                                      SPOILER
                                                      Chiefs: 15 Robbie Robinson, 14 Richard Kahui, 13 Jackson Willison, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Tim Nanai-Williams, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Liam Messam (c), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Tanerau Latimer, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke, 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Mahonri Schwalger, 1 Arizona Taumalolo.
                                                      Replacements: 16 Marcel Cummings-Toone, 17 Josh Hohneck, 18 Kane Thompson, 19 Scott Waldrom, 20 Augustine Pulu, 21 Andrew Horrell, 22 Maritino Nemani.

                                                      Brumbies: 15 Jesse Mogg, 14 Pat McCabe, 13 Andrew Smith, 12 Joe Tomane, 11 Henry Speight, 10 Christian Lealiifano, 9 Ian Prior, 8 Ben Mowen, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Peter Kimlin, 4 Leon Power, 3 Dan Palmer, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Ben Alexander.
                                                      Replacements: 16 Anthony Hegarty, 17 Ruaidhri Murphy, 18 Sam Carter, 19 Ita Vaea, 20 Nic White, 21 Zack Holmes, 22 Cam Crawford.
                                                      Last edited by trytime; 16-03-12, 03:36.

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                                                        OK S15 bets for todaytomorrow

                                                        Hurricans V Highlanders +1
                                                        Sharks V Reds +5
                                                        Waratahs V Force +14

                                                        Rebels -3 V Cheetahs

                                                        All bets are 1/2 units @10/11 except Highlanders which are @5/6 but value due to the fact that they were -1 everywhere else(got it on SJ)

                                                        Gotta go green sometime!

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                                                          Originally posted by trytime View Post
                                                          OK S15 bets for todaytomorrow

                                                          Hurricans V Highlanders +1
                                                          Sharks V Reds +5
                                                          Waratahs V Force +14

                                                          Rebels -3 V Cheetahs

                                                          All bets are 1/2 units @10/11 except Highlanders which are @5/6 but value due to the fact that they were -1 everywhere else(got it on SJ)

                                                          Gotta go green sometime!
                                                          Don't like the Rebels or Reds bets.

                                                          Reds were middling to awful in over half the games so far, including a very average performance last week when they only scored 11 pts at home to the Rebels...betting agaisnt the Sharks at home to them in durban is a fools errand to me as teams tend to take a game, or a half at least to get into their stride on mini tours like this usually.
                                                          Rebels are just still not really a team IMO..they have the talent that may reap rewards for them if they gel at some stage but have'nt seen it yet. 6 pts last week (against a less than impressive Reds) says it all really.
                                                          "Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC

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                                                            Blues -3 @ 4/5 vs the Hurricanes for 1 unit
                                                            Brumbies +4 @10/11 v Highlanders for 1 unit
                                                            Last edited by trytime; 23-03-12, 02:28.

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                                                              Originally posted by trytime View Post
                                                              Blues -3 @ 4/5 vs the Hurricanes for 1 unit
                                                              Brumbies +4 @10/11 v Highlanders for 1 unit
                                                              Brumbies put up a decent show away to the Chiefs last week, so that isn't a bad bet given they are at home.

                                                              Don't like the Blues bet though...missing a lot of their go-to players in the pack especially which is where most games are won. Mealamu, Boric, Kaino...3 All-Blacks and 3 huge losses. Toeava is gone for a long stretch apparently and Rene Ranger is suspended so they're pretty thin in the backs and have strangely opted to also play Weepu at out-half (or first 5/8th as they say). They only arrived back from a long trip to Cape Town during the week which won't help preparation...also,word is all is not well in the Blues camp and there is a lot of people not too happy with head coach Pat Lam.
                                                              Ultimately, their backs are really to the wall here and they need a result badly,so they COULD come out fighting, but on form I wouldn't back them and would prob stay away or wait for in-game here. Would actually see 'Canes +6 @10/11 as much better value.

                                                              Sorry for jumping in on your thread, just giving my 2 cents.
                                                              "Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC

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                                                                Have to say, the Blues bet was very unlucky not to come off. They led by 6 with time almost up, but the Hurricanes scored a brilliant try which was converted for the win. Blues pack dominated open play and the scrum more than I thought they would. Hurricanes have far better backs though which shows up in the stats..4 tries to 1 on far less possession. These young backs the Hurricanes have are really worth keeping an eye on for betting purposes...socred 6 tries and 46 pts with 32% possession a few weeks back away to the Force..crazy stat! The likes of Andre Taylor and Cory Jane have been making hay. Well worth a nibble in the 80minute tryscorer markets a lot of the time..Taylor was 4/1 today, Jane 12/5..both good.
                                                                Rebels 6/5 here now..they have to win sometime at home surely?
                                                                "Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC

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                                                                  Rebels held on 30-29..1st win since last year. to be fair, they were cruising before Cipriani went off injured, but they don't have any depth in key positions really.
                                                                  "Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC

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                                                                    Originally posted by ciarraithuaidh View Post
                                                                    Sorry for jumping in on your thread, just giving my 2 cents.
                                                                    Not in the slightest, this is Alan's first season watching Super Rugby to this extent so all the opinions and info we can get is very helpful.

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                                                                      Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                      Not in the slightest, this is Alan's first season watching Super Rugby to this extent so all the opinions and info we can get is very helpful.
                                                                      Sound. I watch practically every Super 15 game myself. Have a spreadsheet compiled on this years comp to date actually which could be useful to y'all..if you want I can dig it out for ye.
                                                                      Obviously, most important details are on the Super15 site..planetrugby and nzherald are excellent sources for team news and other goings on aswell.
                                                                      "Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC

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                                                                        Originally posted by ciarraithuaidh View Post

                                                                        Sorry for jumping in on your thread, just giving my 2 cents.
                                                                        No bother at all man, keep it coming, i missed the games this morning but i always manage to catch them before the week is out. Pity about the Blues bet , i wasnt mad for it but i had the line at 6 and anything under, i felt was value, so -3 seemed like it couldn't be missed, return of woodcock helped me put that one down for sure.

                                                                        As for the Highlanders game tomorrow, Brumbies look to be very well organised in defence as they showed against the chiefs. I had this line at -3 to the Highlanders but injuries Adam Thompson John Hardie and Phil Burleigh, who have all being playing excellently for them, esp Thompson of course moves the line to -2 at the very least, therefore Brumbies +4(who have a full fit team) seems like a good spot and the right side to be on for it. Slades goalkicking can be a little suspect but Lealiifano has been pretty solid so far. Ill be keeping an eye on Culum Retallick in the second row, to see if hes from the same mould as his younger cousin Brodie from the Chiefs who will surely get capped against Ireland for the All Blacks.

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                                                                          Have the Sharks +5 @10/11 at the Waratahs. 1 unit
                                                                          Last edited by trytime; 24-03-12, 01:00.

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                                                                            Have the Canes -7 v Cheetahs @10/11 for 1/2 unit
                                                                            Chiefs -4 V Tahs @10/11 for 1 unit

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                                                                              Crusaders -7 V Lions @ 10/11 for 1/2 unit

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                                                                                How are you two doing at this?
                                                                                X can be anything, any number, that is what’s CRAZY about X.
                                                                                Because X doesn’t roll like that, because X can’t be pinned down!

                                                                                $ Free Travel Credit with Airbnb $

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                                                                                  Force V Chiefs -4 @10/11 for 1 unit.

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                                                                                    Cheetahs V Lions +7 @10/11 for 1 unit
                                                                                    Bulls V Crusaders +3 @10/11 for 1 unit
                                                                                    Last edited by trytime; 06-04-12, 23:49.

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                                                                                      Is the thread dead lads?

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                                                                                        Yeah we've stopped updating it at this stage, don't have any plans to start it up again at the moment. We're still forging on with it and have been pretty successful mainly down to a lot of help from one or two people. I'll try and heckle Alan to at least do a bit more posting in the rugby thread because his rugby handicapping strikerate has been very impressive, particularly in S15.

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