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    25 50 Aces

    I don't know the villain very well, but from watching him play a bit he seems a totally normal TAG. Play on this site tends towards tight passive, the regs are less aggressive than normal. I haven't 3 bet this player before.

    Villain raises to 1.50 utg.

    I make it 5 from the button with aces.

    Fish cold calls 5 from the blinds.

    Villain calls.

    The flop is Q62r. Checked to me and I bet 8.

    Fish folds, TAG immediately raises to 17. (1 more than a min raise). I ?

    #2
    I convince myself he takes this line with AQ. Something I do a bit, and tbh it goes both ways for me, but more good than bad, I think.

    I flat and let him have the betting control OOP on turn.

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      #3
      Stacks?

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        #4
        call
        "c'est en faisant n'importe quoi qu'on devient n'importe qui"

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          #5
          raise back at him, I put him on AQ, KQ or even QJ here. If you have ran into a set unlucky but usually you are ahead here and will get paid

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            #6
            Definitely calling, but not delighted at the prospect of putting more money in here. 'Oh he might be balancing his range for c/r on dry board...oh no no...he had a set'

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              #7
              Sorry, effective stacks were 100bbs, so 50 each

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                #8
                Originally posted by lilsexy View Post
                raise back at him, I put him on AQ, KQ or even QJ here. If you have ran into a set unlucky but usually you are ahead here and will get paid
                I doubt those hands make up much of his range. I mean he literally never has QJ or KQ here, he MIGHT have AQ but I doubt it, and it's also combinatorialy unlikely. Why would he min raise with them anyway?

                Also the only real options here are to call or fold, raising serves no purpose on a board like this.

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                  #9
                  Originally posted by Mellor View Post

                  I flat and let him have the betting control OOP on turn.
                  Seems the only sensible option.

                  I mean, folding you're saying he practically never does without a set..?

                  I'd expect AQ here a decent %.

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                    #10
                    Are people calling a turn jam here when a blank comes?

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                      #11
                      You've shown massive strength in 3betting and c-betting into 2 players. Not sure many TAGs are check raising tptk in that spot. With the board being so dry if there's ever a time to fold an overpair this is it.

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                        #12
                        Even when we include AQ and KK in his range for CR'ing, calling is marginal at best.

                        Your small flop cbet is interesting, I assume you Cbet $8 into the $15.25 pot for value versus the weaker part of his range. Is there any chance that betsize has induced villain to spew. Often the min raise is of the "where am I" variety if so I call but intending to fold to a turn lead.
                        Last edited by TheSnapper; 18-02-12, 12:22.
                        "Being wrong is erroneously associated with failure, when, in fact, to be proven wrong should be celebrated, for it elevates someone to a new level of understanding."

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by bohsman View Post
                          You've shown massive strength in 3betting and c-betting into 2 players. Not sure many TAGs are check raising tptk in that spot. With the board being so dry if there's ever a time to fold an overpair this is it.
                          I dont think a 3 way c-bet is showing massive strength on this board. This is the type of board I would expect we're cbetting the majority of our 3betting range.

                          If players are less aggressive, then I would say here's a good spot to fold post flop. The only 2 hands we beat that are possibly in his value range are AQ and KK, though I find it unlikely that he'd play KK this way preflop and AQ this way postflop.

                          If I did call, it would be because I assume he isn't going to barrel me on the turn with any air hands or hands that he may have "raised for information".
                          Looking for full or part time poker and betting writers. PM if interested.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            I never fold overpairs really but if I was going to pretend that I really was going to fold one it would be here. Like really what can he have? It would be a pretty unorthodox way to play KK.
                            HJ why can he not have peeled pre with kqs or jqs here? That said I really doubt he would play the flop like this. I dont really like calling to fold the turn with so much in. If I was calling it would be to hang on for dear life and hope hes bluffing randomly which I really really doubt he is.
                            Fold the flop probs for the least pain.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              No plans to fold here. Guy is repping an incredibly narrow value range that has us beat -2 hands - a total of 6 hand combos - on a board that he shouldn't really be raising if he has it -as he's only getting action from an almost equally narrow hand range. fwiw i probably bet smaller on this flop, especially with the fish in the hand - let him call a street with 77 or whatever he might have flatted the 3bet pre with.

                              I've played a decent amount of 50nl recently and as Ian alludes to above the raise for information is alive and well at 50nl


                              Edit - just noticed the bit in op about games being tight passive on that site. Still not folding though! Would need a tight passive read on villain in question i think, not just a general site wide read
                              Last edited by BobSloane; 18-02-12, 16:18.

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                                #16
                                Originally posted by BobSloane View Post
                                No plans to fold here. Guy is repping an incredibly narrow value range that has us beat -2 hands - a total of 6 hand combos - on a board that he shouldn't really be raising if he has it -as he's only getting action from an almost equally narrow hand range. fwiw i probably bet smaller on this flop, especially with the fish in the hand - let him call a street with 77 or whatever he might have flatted the 3bet pre with.

                                I've played a decent amount of 50nl recently and as Ian alludes to above the raise for information is alive and well at 50nl


                                Edit - just noticed the bit in op about games being tight passive on that site. Still not folding though! Would need a tight passive read on villain in question i think, not just a general site wide read
                                Yeah he is repping a very narrow value range, however than itself isn't a reason to call/raise, this isn't mid stakes NL against good players. There are plenty of spots where low stakes TAGS ranges are ridiculously unbalanced Also, what he SHOULD do is irrelevant. I've been in this spot a few times and the players have never been bluffing. (And although that makes it seem like it would be a good spot to bluff, in fact it wouldn't because almost no-one is folding aces in my spot and the range people have when they take my line is pretty strong). This is the line they take with sets/overpairs in this spot, and that's what it is important, not what the best line for him to take is.

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                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by jbravado View Post
                                  I never fold overpairs really but if I was going to pretend that I really was going to fold one it would be here. Like really what can he have? It would be a pretty unorthodox way to play KK.
                                  HJ why can he not have peeled pre with kqs or jqs here? That said I really doubt he would play the flop like this. I dont really like calling to fold the turn with so much in. If I was calling it would be to hang on for dear life and hope hes bluffing randomly which I really really doubt he is.
                                  Fold the flop probs for the least pain.
                                  He may well peel KQs or JQs, but I would think he is folding the unsuited versions of those hands (and often the suited versions given he will be oop). I also don't find that players will min raise the a flop lead when they hit top pair with those hands. So although you can't rule it out, I think they are really unlikely.

                                  The one hand he could easily have that I beat is KK. As Ian said I think it's a bit unlikely he smooth calls pre with this hand once the fish calls, but if he did I would expect him to min raise like this.

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                                    #18
                                    This is a combinatorics problem. The question is how much KK and how much air to put in his range. I think it's reasonable to say he can have all combos of KK given the fish in the hand and opponent's assumed passivity.

                                    He has 3*3*2=18 combos of sets and 4*3=12 combos of KK. So we really only need to put 18-12=6 combos of air into his range to make this a breakeven calldown. I think that's fine.
                                    "I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson

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                                      #19
                                      ^^
                                      There are 9 set combos and 6 combos of KK. Btw if it turns out he has QQ here I may go into cardiac arrest

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                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by BobSloane View Post
                                        ^^
                                        There are 9 set combos and 6 combos of KK. Btw if it turns out he has QQ here I may go into cardiac arrest
                                        I always get that one wrong. This is better anyway.
                                        "I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by BobSloane View Post
                                          ^^
                                          There are 9 set combos and 6 combos of KK. Btw if it turns out he has QQ here I may go into cardiac arrest
                                          His most likely hand here is QQ

                                          Whilst he can every combination of KK, he is going to be more likely to 4bet KK than QQ (And even more so for AQ etc), so you have to discount it somewhat.

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by AndyFatBastard View Post
                                            He has 3*3*2=18 combos of sets and 4*3=12 combos of KK. So we really only need to put 18-12=6 combos of air into his range to make this a breakeven calldown. I think that's fine.
                                            Why is that fine? I think there is a close to zero chance he has air here. If I thought he could be bluffing I would call since it's a lot easier to have a bluff than a set. Also we have 2 outs vs sets, KK has 2 outs vs us and so on.

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                                              #23
                                              This thread really makes my head hurt. I've always knew that HJ and others were way ahead of me as poker players but whatever the outcome of this hand, and even if i'm told i'm wrong/an idiot/a fish/clueless or whatever, i'm not folding here on the flop. If i call, then the pot is 49 and we've 28 left in our stack so it's almost always going in on the turn.

                                              His most likely hand here is QQ

                                              Whilst he can every combination of KK, he is going to be more likely to 4bet KK than QQ (And even more so for AQ etc), so you have to discount it somewhat.
                                              It's a player that we don't know really well. Why is QQ more likely than than 66 or 22? How does any factor in the hand so far lead us to believe that? I wouldn't be too sure that he doesn't 4bet QQ pre if he's going 3 to a flop with a fish in the blinds and OOP to the 3bettor, but 22 and 66 would be standard as played pre.

                                              If he's bad enough to check minraise top set on the driest of dry boards, then he's probably bad enough to do it with a queen. He could even be old school checkraising to see where he's at or to take you off your obvious AK compulsory cbet. I'm never ever ever playing cash again!

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                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                                                This thread really makes my head hurt. I've always knew that HJ and others were way ahead of me as poker players but whatever the outcome of this hand, and even if i'm told i'm wrong/an idiot/a fish/clueless or whatever, i'm not folding here on the flop. If i call, then the pot is 49 and we've 28 left in our stack so it's almost always going in on the turn.

                                                It's a player that we don't know really well. Why is QQ more likely than than 66 or 22? How does any factor in the hand so far lead us to believe that? I wouldn't be too sure that he doesn't 4bet QQ pre if he's going 3 to a flop with a fish in the blinds and OOP to the 3bettor, but 22 and 66 would be standard as played pre.

                                                If he's bad enough to check minraise top set on the driest of dry boards, then he's probably bad enough to do it with a queen. He could even be old school checkraising to see where he's at or to take you off your obvious AK compulsory cbet. I'm never ever ever playing cash again!
                                                I suspect HJ's 3b range versus an utg TAG raise is reasonably strong and contains predominantly hands that are 3b'ing for value, more importantly, his range for continuing when facing a 4bet in that scenario is super strong so from the villains pov 4 betting QQ would essentially be a bluff hence ridiculous.
                                                "Being wrong is erroneously associated with failure, when, in fact, to be proven wrong should be celebrated, for it elevates someone to a new level of understanding."

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
                                                  Why is that fine? I think there is a close to zero chance he has air here. If I thought he could be bluffing I would call since it's a lot easier to have a bluff than a set. Also we have 2 outs vs sets, KK has 2 outs vs us and so on.
                                                  I don't think you can reasonably say that there are less than 3 combos of air in his range. If you genuinely believe that then it's a fold, but at 50nl I think you always have to leave some small amount of random stupidity in your opponent's range, otherwise you will level yourself to death in spots like this.
                                                  "I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson

                                                  Comment


                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
                                                    His most likely hand here is QQ
                                                    chest......tightening........tell....dog.....i.... love....herrrrrrrr

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                                                      #27
                                                      I think my entire range for utg raise followed by flatting to play a multiway pot oop is 22-TT depending slightly on HJs 3bet range. Would certainly be 4 betting JJ+ and AK to try to get hu with the fish. Could possibly check min raise TT to try to get AK to fold but it's unlikely.

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                                                        #28
                                                        Isn't folding overpairs to one raise on a board dryer then the Sahara ridiculously exploitable?

                                                        Calling the flop and getting it in on almost all turns. Lol @ him if he has a set here. Horrible line.

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                                                          #29
                                                          Doubt he's too worried about being exploited. If he folds its not like villain will know he folded AA. He just feels that this is a set almost always except for the odd time it's KK. Some people are suggesting villain would play a Q like this and I think he can have a hand like 88 that he doesn't want to fold and doesn't want to call and has taken a raise to see where im at line.
                                                          If HJs range is right then he should fold - if villain can have a queen or some other pair(maybe even no pair?) then obv folding is not good. The 50nl I've played recently has been on party where I would certainly not fold against most players

                                                          Comment


                                                            #30
                                                            ok,it looks like a set, by calling our hand looks like AQ/KK/AA so imo the standard line here is to call/fold to shove on river, perhaps this is too exploitable but i think it's lessso than b/f the flop when c/r rainbow boards is cash 101 these days (granted not usuall yin 3 bet pots)
                                                            i think villain will have to be good to turn a marginal hand into a bluff, and i call river shove if i'vedecent histroy and have reason to think he can 3 barrell oop (something i do v.often and v.effectively)

                                                            Comment


                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by Kie Diddy View Post
                                                              ok,it looks like a set, by calling our hand looks like AQ/KK/AA so imo the standard line here is to call/fold to shove on river, perhaps this is too exploitable but i think it's lessso than b/f the flop when c/r rainbow boards is cash 101 these days (granted not usuall yin 3 bet pots)
                                                              i think villain will have to be good to turn a marginal hand into a bluff, and i call river shove if i'vedecent histroy and have reason to think he can 3 barrell oop (something i do v.often and v.effectively)
                                                              We're on the flop with about a half pot bet left to go in

                                                              Comment


                                                                #32
                                                                Anyway, thanks for the responses. I folded obviously, so no real results to speak about. I think given then timing and player I'm happy enough with my fold. It's obviously incredibly exploitable but I'm not too worried about that. I would love to know what he had!

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