Guineas Weekend

[npr]

First classics of the year. What do we think?

2k: Really liked the way Elusive Pimpernel shaped in the Craven. That along with the way SNA carried his head high and the likely quick ground would make me take EP over SNA. Depending on price SNA (<6/4) may be a lay for me.

1k: Special Duty looked a cert after Cheveley Park last october. Beaten first time out this year but I like the fact she has had a run and the ground will be much more to her liking at Newmarket. At 7/2 she is a bet for me. I like Seta as my alternative.

Kentucky Derby: Looks a pretty open race, might look for a bit of value. Awesome Act has come in for some support lately, 8s might be skinny but there is still some 12s left. Outside of that maybe American Lion.

[The C Kid]

On both favourites.

Super confident with one, not so with the other.

Good luck.

[npr]

Just reading on RP "Newmarket expecting rain before weekend". Could change my opinion on both. Wait for the day me thinks.

[The Situation]

Just reading on RP "Newmarket expecting rain before weekend". Could change my opinion on both. Wait for the day me thinks.

They had an extended interview with Special Duties trainer Criquite-Head this morning on ATR and she said that rain never hugely affects the Newmarket track and she's not worried about conditions at all.

[TommyGunne]

I wouldn't be looking to go to lay SNA unless he got very short.

[kincsem]

2000 Guineas
Canford Cliffs 12/1 with Paddy Power
Viscount Nelson 125/1 (small bet)
I've place laid St Nicholas Abbey (he's a boat imo)

1000 Guineas
Lady Darshaan (I like big odds)

A few doubles and trebles on the 2000, 1000, Oaks, Derby. I'll do a trifecta on the 2000 Guineas with the Tote if they have it.

Special Duty is by the sire Hennessy, who was sire of Johannesburg, a great 2-y-o, and a failure as a 3-y-o. So she might flop a second time in the 1000 Gineas.

[kincsem]

I would prefer rain to watering. Newmarket f***** up the watering the year Mark Of Esteem won the 2000 Guineas. Dry on the rail, bog in the middle.

[npr]

Special Duty is by the sire Hennessy, who was sire of Johannesburg, a great 2-y-o, and a failure as a 3-y-o. So she might flop a second time in the 1000 Gineas.

Can't really agree with you on this. One horse doesn't define a stallion. Henny Hughes, also by Hennessy, won two Grade 1s at 3. She may not train on but I don't think there is enough evidence to assume that.

[NewApproach]

I would prefer rain to watering. Newmarket f***** up the watering the year Mark Of Esteem won the 2000 Guineas. Dry on the rail, bog in the middle.

This +1000000000000000.

Whatever about watering to avoid firm ground at Cheltenham, this is the flat and they should only water if the ground could possibly turn up hard, ie properly unsafe for horses.

[Esprit]

Just backing Canford Cliffs e/w myself. Can't be having SNA at that price.

[TommyGunne]

Happy I got on SNA at 13/8 now

[NewApproach]

Have backed Xtension, Buzzword, Fencing Master and Dick Turpin in the 2k. That is all.

[careca]

jesus Xtension is sick overpriced here, mostly down to having an unfashionable trainer. He would be single figures if trained by one of a half dozen trainers

Hope you had him with the sponsors?


Another bubble burst with the fav. V poor run.

[npr]

SNA had every chance. Not good enough on the day. Layed at 2.2. Backed Elusive, had every chance too, was back a little further than I would have liked. No hard luck stories in the race for me.

[npr]

Frenchies for a double now tomorrow?

[GingerMilla]

My initial thoughts were that this was a sub standard renewal but the time apparently was only half a second slower than See the stars last year.

Red faces all round. The winner was rejected and sold out of the Tregoning stable for £25000 last Autumn without running a race.

While St Nicholas Abbey's run could hardly be described as a complete flop the indications are that he is nothing special. He did'nt look like he wanted to know when asked to quicken up.

[careca]

a bubble was only burst if you thought he could genuinely be a guineas horse. nothing about him (form/style/breeding) suggested he could be a guineas winner. decent pipe opener for the season - wouldnt be too disappointed at all.

There's no doubt he could win the Derby and go on to be special, but I am convinced AOB and all at Ballydoyle thought he would win today. Even his interview after the race indicated it.

He could go on to be special but the STS comparisons can stop now, IMO. I'd imagine he would drift in price now for the Derby after that display.

[Esprit]

Just backing Canford Cliffs e/w myself. Can't be having SNA at that price.

That'll do, happy with the place money and thought he ran a very good race considering there was doubts if he'd stay 1m.

[kincsem]

2000 Guineas
Canford Cliffs 12/1 with Paddy Power
Viscount Nelson 125/1 (small bet)
I've place laid St Nicholas Abbey (he's a boat imo)

Lost about €205 @ 12/1 win Canford Cliffs
Lost €12 @ 126/1 win Viscount Nelson
Won €110 lay to win @ 2.2 St Nicholas Abbey [my €132 to €110]
Won €100 place lay @ 1.6 St Nicholas Abbey [my €60 to €100]

So about break even on the race, but a few doubles and trebles went down when Canford Cliffs failed.

[NewApproach]

While St Nicholas Abbey's run could hardly be described as a complete flop the indications are that he is nothing special. He did'nt look like he wanted to know when asked to quicken up.

He had to be a superstar to win today. It's really not surprising that a Montjeu colt from a strong staying family couldn't quicken on fast ground off a reasonable pace in the Guineas.

rightfully the silly STS comparisons can stop now, but no reason this horse cant prove to be very good this season in the right type of race. (easier ground, over further)

[npr]

a bubble was only burst if you thought he could genuinely be a guineas horse. nothing about him (form/style/breeding) suggested he could be a guineas winner. decent pipe opener for the season - wouldnt be too disappointed at all.

Agree totally. I wouldn't be as keen to lay him for the Derby. Although I think his action would be far more suited to the Curragh. For me he'll be placed in the Derby then win the Irish Derby and then be a serious threat to older horses later on in the season.

Winner looks a good horse, 3 from 3. 2nd two home are 7f horses. Next 3 three look like the more staying types.

[kincsem]

I backed Habaayib [no. 5 on the racecard] €45 at 50/1+ for the 1000 Guineas [trainer A Balding; jockey Tadgh O'Shea].

This is a system bet that I am trying for the first time.

[NewApproach]

2nd two home are 7f horses. Next 3 three look like the more staying types.

I had always believed Canford Cliffs couldn't stay a mile in a horsebox, but to be fair I think he proved me wrong today. He pulled very hard for the first 3 furlongs or so, then once he settled he travelled beautifully, and sayed on well to my eyes right to the line. He is one I will look to keep on the right side of over mile this season until something else I see later on this season tells me not to.

[npr]

Backed Music Show e/w. Then at the last minute decided I'd be annoyed if Special Duty won and I didn't back her. So I had a little at 9/2.

Straight after the race I was happy to lose, great story - Henry Cecil, wheelchair bound owner, etc. I think it was the correct decision to alter the result but not the result I would have preferred. If there had not been such a small winning margin they might have let her keep it.

Summarising the race, Special Duty does look special and I expect her to keep winning on better ground over the summer. Hopefully Jacqueline Quest isn't a one hit wonder and goes onto win some nice races for owner/trainer. Maybe even sell her for a fortune to Sheikh Moh. Looked like those racing on the far side had no chance. So could be more to come from Music Show, Pollenater, Seta.

No luck in the Kentucky Derby. Neither of mine featured any time in the race. Calvin Borel takes down his third KD in 4 years (remind me to back him next year) and Todd Pletcher his first.

[kincsem]

A word of caution about the 1000 Guineas result (17 runners). The horses drawn low dominated the finish, so they might not shine in future races.

2. Jacqueline Quest (drawn 4) raced stands side
1. Special Duty (drawn 1) raced stands
3. Gile Na Greine (drawn 2) raced stands
4. Sent From Heaven (drawn 6) raced stands
5. Distinctive (drawn 7) raced stands
6. Music Show (drawn 15) raced centre
7. Rumoush (drawn 18) raced centre
8. Habaayib (drawn 3) raced stands

I see Gile na Greine is now about 10/1 for the Oaks. She is a full sister to Cuis Ghaire who finished second in the last year's 1000 Guineas. Although the pedigrees of those two sisters trained by Jim Bolger seem to be suited to 12f for some reason Cuis Ghaire never ran at further than 8f. She was 15/16 in the Irish 1000 Guineas on heavy in her next race.