IPB Hero Our Conor Memorial Thread - (Horses Betting Obv)

[NewApproach]

Calypso Queen worth a few quid ew in the 3.45 at Limerick. Best price 25/1

[Wesley Harms]

Noel, you think Notus De la tour is an Arkle horse?

[Wesley Harms]

In an ordinary year, yes. This isn't an ordinary year. Jewson Novice Chase probably.

I'm just curious who you meant when you said Grands Crus stablemate will win the Arkle

[NewApproach]

Dear oh dear. The factory beckons

[amberleaf]

last year cheltenham bumper was won by cheltenian, with destroyer deployed in 2nd,and aupcharlie in 3rd.obsessively worth a look as they take on the hurdles.aupcharlie,first of these three to run this season is entered 2morrow in thurles,and again in punchestown on sunday with a entry in to the grade 1 novice hurdle in fairyhouse on the 4th of dec the target,you would think.prices will be on the skinny side but with form like that,could be worth following

[Pat Mustard]

yuck last night could have backed staying article in fairyhouse @ 11/8.... ended up watching senna after the match (both brilliant) and fell asleep, 5/6 now, still think its worth a couple of hundred

[amberleaf]

last year cheltenham bumper was won by cheltenian, with destroyer deployed in 2nd,and aupcharlie in 3rd.obsessively worth a look as they take on the hurdles.aupcharlie,first of these three to run this season is entered 2morrow in thurles,and again in punchestown on sunday with a entry in to the grade 1 novice hurdle in fairyhouse on the 4th of dec the target,you would think.prices will be on the skinny side but with form like that,could be worth following

meh best price 1/2,will most likely win tho,ground no problem,never jumped a hurdle in public but with willie mullins training,can be taken into trust, as the only danger,(on paper anyway)golanbrook,might want 2m2f (this is 2m)to be seen at his best

edit,see two more of the nag me list,azores & wasabi's house are entered in dundalk tomorrow

[amberleaf]

aupcharlie done yesterday by a horse that fell in his only previous outing @ 25/1.

anyways two more from the nag me list,6.30 dundalk, wasabis house was put in at 8.37am this morning @11/10 with bet 365,by 8.45 am it was backed into 10/11,so positive sign there

in the 7.25 azores,put in @ 9/4 jf,form reads 3232,first time on the sand and only a matter of time before this one clicks,and just gone into 7/4 (9.28am)so another positive sign

[NewApproach]

The Hurricane must be seriously excited today, loads of juicy short priced favs.

[TommyGunne]

I am backing Torphicen in the 3.20. 7/1, good EW poke imo.

Why are Boyles top of book then?

Just interested, not implying anything.

[Wesley Harms]

The Hurricane must be seriously excited today, loads of juicy short priced favs.

2012 Gold Cup winner runs in the 2.10 at ascot, also Oscar Whiskey is a banker, not too interested in punting much else.

[The Situation]

Is it me or was that a shocking quality race?

[Wesley Harms]

That was some fucking ride from Conor O Farrell

[The Situation]

That was some fucking ride from Conor O Farrell

Tom Segal is an absolute beast of a tipster.

[Wesley Harms]

Tom Segal is an absolute beast of a tipster.

I wonder does he be pumping onto these horses before he tips them up to get of when they inevitably shorten

[Wesley Harms]

Big Bucks won't be unsettled by that I don't think

[The Situation]

I wonder does he be pumping onto these horses before he tips them up to get of when they inevitably shorten

They usually don't shorten that much on Saturdays or at big meetings with plenty of liquidity in markets.

[Wesley Harms]

Whatever happens here 5/4 is an absolutely massive price on Long Run.

COME ON KAUTO, ONE LAST TIME

[Strewelpeter]

Wow!

What a leap at the last ... pure showmanship

[Wesley Harms]

I've never been this happy watching racing and I didn't even have a bet. TAKE THAT LONG RUN

[The Situation]

Ha great to see, poor standard again though imo.

[Wesley Harms]

Ha great to see, poor standard again though imo.

Fuck the standard, he jumped them into the ground, that's what racing is all about COME ON KAUTO

[Wesley Harms]

some horse. one in a lifetime.

I wonder would the handicapper reassess last years Gold Cup if he had the opportunity? 182 Long Run?

Time to top up on Quito De La Roque for the Gold Cup imo. Diamond Harry, time For Rupert, Weird Al etc etc etc are all non events for a gold cup. 16/1 Quito is twice the price he should be.

Somersby

[Wesley Harms]

you have not heard me mention Somersby since last season. FACT.

You misunderstand me. I think Somersby is a Gold Cup Horse

[rounders123]

So impressed with Long Runs heart today to be confident on him more than any horse in the gold cup. First off the bridle and under pressure a long way out that any other horse would be forgiven for being tailed off. But despite that he stuck on gamely showing the big heart which makes me think he will come on so much as he clearly wasnt fit for this today.

[mdoug]

bet big on long run, then did safety bet - wanted to go Kauto but everyone said Diamond, flipped a coin to decide which I do safety bet on - FML. Unreal jumping Kauto, wp sir
lost on that 3:20 too , if it wasn't for masterminded and maccas lad I would be down a shit ton!! instead just small losses thank f***

[NoRiverRequired]

thinking about the Gold Cup in light of yesterdays race.

1. Proof that the 182 rating which the hcper gave Long Run overestimated his ability. Not saying he isnt a good horse and there were lots of positives to be taken from his run yesterday but the important thing is that the gulf in ability between the challengers and the champion is not as great as official ratings imply.
2. He has some jumping frailties.
3. There is fck all coming after the top tier in the UK. Diamond Harry, TFR, Weird Al & Wishful Thinking exposed. Grand Crus wont run in GC, Master Minded will run in Ryanair, Captain Chris hasnt got it together yet, Somersby wont stay. This suggests that Kauto and Denman may be the only serious UK challengers come March!
4. The Irish Challenge probably centers around Jessies Dream, Bostons Angel, Magnanimity, Joncol and Quito De La Roque. Russel says that Magnanimity isnt in the same parish as QDLR and generally speaking the RSA is not the GC trial you might expect. Joncol is 190 on betfair suggests he is crocked up again though and we wont see him there.
5. QDLR has confirmed his well being and his big heart for battle when winning a race he had no right to in Down Royal, a course which certainly didn't suit him.
6. Some comments after that race that he would only have a chace in the GC if it came up bottomless - this is pure bollix, horse will go on any ground.

All things considered I am failing to see how QDLR is not value at 16/1, only a few of them will matter in March and everything suggests that he will be one of them. Id be recommending that everybody goes shopping and snaps up a slice of the 16/1.

Nice analysis Noel , i'll be taking a bit of the 16's at this stage.

[luckforsome]

thinking about the Gold Cup in light of yesterdays race.

1. Proof that the 182 rating which the hcper gave Long Run overestimated his ability. Not saying he isnt a good horse and there were lots of positives to be taken from his run yesterday but the important thing is that the gulf in ability between the challengers and the champion is not as great as official ratings imply.
2. He has some jumping frailties.
3. There is fck all coming after the top tier in the UK. Diamond Harry, TFR, Weird Al & Wishful Thinking exposed. Grand Crus wont run in GC, Master Minded will run in Ryanair, Captain Chris hasnt got it together yet, Somersby wont stay. This suggests that Kauto and Denman may be the only serious UK challengers come March!
4. The Irish Challenge probably centers around Jessies Dream, Bostons Angel, Magnanimity, Joncol and Quito De La Roque. Russel says that Magnanimity isnt in the same parish as QDLR and generally speaking the RSA is not the GC trial you might expect. Joncol is 190 on betfair suggests he is crocked up again though and we wont see him there.
5. QDLR has confirmed his well being and his big heart for battle when winning a race he had no right to in Down Royal, a course which certainly didn't suit him.
6. Some comments after that race that he would only have a chace in the GC if it came up bottomless - this is pure bollix, horse will go on any ground.

All things considered I am failing to see how QDLR is not value at 16/1, only a few of them will matter in March and everything suggests that he will be one of them. Id be recommending that everybody goes shopping and snaps up a slice of the 16/1.

...Nice detail....you never fail to give a detailed response to everything,,,
based on this, 16/1 has been taken...thanks for your advice....

[amberleaf]

word on the street is that Rebecca curtis horse in the Ffos Las Bumper, Vegas Cash, is an aeroplane. 13/8 is plenty short but looks set to start odds on based on vibes.

plenty of fluff falling for it,best price right now is 6/4,with 73% of all bets on the race,placed on vegas cash,with pipes horse drifting a little,looks like a nice punt alright!

[mohican22]

Big gamble on Jonjo/McManus horse in this Shutthefrontdoor 11/2 into 11/4

[Starvin Marvin]

thinking about the Gold Cup in light of yesterdays race.

1. Proof that the 182 rating which the hcper gave Long Run overestimated his ability. Not saying he isnt a good horse and there were lots of positives to be taken from his run yesterday but the important thing is that the gulf in ability between the challengers and the champion is not as great as official ratings imply.
2. He has some jumping frailties.
3. There is fck all coming after the top tier in the UK. Diamond Harry, TFR, Weird Al & Wishful Thinking exposed. Grand Crus wont run in GC, Master Minded will run in Ryanair, Captain Chris hasnt got it together yet, Somersby wont stay. This suggests that Kauto and Denman may be the only serious UK challengers come March!
4. The Irish Challenge probably centers around Jessies Dream, Bostons Angel, Magnanimity, Joncol and Quito De La Roque. Russel says that Magnanimity isnt in the same parish as QDLR and generally speaking the RSA is not the GC trial you might expect. Joncol is 190 on betfair suggests he is crocked up again though and we wont see him there.
5. QDLR has confirmed his well being and his big heart for battle when winning a race he had no right to in Down Royal, a course which certainly didn't suit him.
6. Some comments after that race that he would only have a chace in the GC if it came up bottomless - this is pure bollix, horse will go on any ground.

All things considered I am failing to see how QDLR is not value at 16/1, only a few of them will matter in March and everything suggests that he will be one of them. Id be recommending that everybody goes shopping and snaps up a slice of the 16/1.

QDLR will be exposed as not being up to the level required as soon as he meets anything of note imo.

Id rather TFR at 25s for sure back at Cheltenham.

Id like to see Somersby over 3 miles.

[Starvin Marvin]

Doesnt seem that great a proposition and I never have and probably never will do a spread bet.

Wouldnt do a bet like that 4 months in advance of the race either.

Im not mad on either but I think the value on QDLR is gone at this stage and would prefer TFR ew at a bigger price.

[The Situation]

Think the David Pipe horse Bathwick Man is a really interesting one in the 14.50 race. Back down to a very winnable mark but key is he's back going left handed again where all 5 of his hurdle wins have come on 5 different left handed tracks ranging from flat to undulating. Completely unsuitable distance last time but back to 17 furlongs which is far more to his liking. Think a ew bet at double figure odds is appealing in a poor race.

[Trigger]

Think the David Pipe horse Bathwick Man is a really interesting one in the 14.50 race. Back down to a very winnable mark but key is he's back going left handed again where all 5 of his hurdle wins have come on 5 different left handed tracks ranging from flat to undulating. Completely unsuitable distance last time but back to 17 furlongs which is far more to his liking. Think a ew bet at double figure odds is appealing in a poor race.

A big enough gamble on this into 9/2.

[Charlie Harper]

was on him aswell.. had the winner in a lucky15. Battista cost me it had the other 3

[amberleaf]

see azores running again in dundalk 8.20,friday,1m2f,

[amberleaf]

yea - that looks a good opportunity for him. Ideal trip and I am pretty sure he can win it without impacting his handicap mark. I do think that Gris Ladera is also an ideal horse in the same race.

I really like Buccaneer Bob in the last race tomorrow night. Has been dropped 3lb and stepping up to 1m4f which it has looked like he needs. Not sure how he will be priced but at an EW price id make him an excellent betting proposition.

smullen on board azores for the first time,and good looking draw(stall 3)last two winners of the race came from 1 &3,a little interest in gaiety theatre as well,came 5th in the same race as azores last week,running on,reported lame after the race,more of a watching brief this time but worth a look if the money comes for it!

[Maddogg]

just got a tip

THURLES 15:45 MAIDEN HURDLE 2m 2f
Frankie Flowers @ 11/1

if anyone interested

DONKEY

[redzerdrog]

smullen on board azores for the first time,and good looking draw(stall 3)last two winners of the race came from 1 &3,a little interest in gaiety theatre as well,came 5th in the same race as azores last week,running on,reported lame after the race,more of a watching brief this time but worth a look if the money comes for it!

I was in dundalk last week and had a small bet on gaiety theatre just because it looked like a gorgeous horse. Didnt know he was reported lame after it i taught he ran a cracker as he was first time out iirc

[Wesley Harms]

Anyone know why Ruby isn't riding any of the Wylie horses. Strange that he is Mullins and PFN stable jockey but isn't riding any of these.

Dislike or dispute? Any ideas

Edit: seems he rode a Wylie horse yesterday at cork so I'm talking bollocks.

Edit 2: He rode Psycho for Tony Martin instead of 5/4 fav Kempes for Mullins on same
Card. maybe it's JP he don't get on with

[amberleaf]

ruby was fairly sweet on ranjaan 13.00, newbury,last night,skinny nuff @ 8/11 but could be one for the accums,football coupons etc

[The Situation]

Thoughts on Bobs Worth's price first time out this season?? A tad short?

[Wesley Harms]

I was impressed by Cue Card there, just outstayed.

[NewApproach]

If Tizzard had more confidence in his jumping he would have won imo

[Wesley Harms]

If Tizzard had more confidence in his jumping he would have won imo

Still a lively outsider for the Arkle imo, needs to be held up though he travels so well.

Bobs Worth looks like a right sort for the RSA. Stamina won't be an issue

[Jaysoose]

smullen on board azores for the first time,and good looking draw(stall 3)last two winners of the race came from 1 &3,a little interest in gaiety theatre as well,came 5th in the same race as azores last week,running on,reported lame after the race,more of a watching brief this time but worth a look if the money comes for it!

Worth a touch @ 5/4 you reckon?

[Pat Mustard]

TWENTYFOURCARAT @1.35 towcester, fancied this for today... then was watching the morning line and the trainer ian williams had him in his "virtual" bets for charity, had him on about his hennessy chance wayward prince also... had him each way in his bets but can't see past great endeavour if he stays

[Wesley Harms]

With the likelihood of Celestial Halo and Overturn cutting each others throats in front and Binocular getting the fast pace he loves I think that makes him a great bet today

[Pat Mustard]

With the likelihood of Celestial Halo and Overturn cutting each others throats in front and Binocular getting the fast pace he loves I think that makes him a great bet today

had him walking around the ring and interviewed handler, john francome said he looked as well in himself as he had seen in a long time

[Wesley Harms]

Just couldnt help myself had to go in again here on Binocular

[amberleaf]

i got some very,very solid word about missunited in the bumper in navan 15.25,sunday.the forecast price on irishracing.com is 4/1,well worth a pop imo.

[amberleaf]

i got some very,very solid word about missunited in the bumper in navan 15.25,sunday.the forecast price on irishracing.com is 4/1,well worth a pop imo.

just took the 3/1 from laddies,hopefully will come good!

[HelloJellyFish]

I am on A Country Girl in the last but am sure Supreme Carolina will also be in the thick of things. Nina is on Missunited so it will be a good race.

[luckforsome]

just took the 3/1 from laddies,hopefully will come good!

...2/1 laddies and 15/8 pp...money is going on it...

[amberleaf]

ah well,so much for that!

McManus apparently offered €300k for that mare earlier in the week,wow didnt think the owner would turn that down

[biscuits]

just got word from a friend of mine in england with a tip for mr chippy in the 3 30 in ffos las he is 7/2 now on pp!!! just thought would pass on the word

[Strewelpeter]

have said it already in the thread that I thought Zarkandars performance in the Triumph hurdle was the best juvenile performance I had seen. I know the stats say 5yo's cant win the Champion Hurdle but I backed him during the summer regardless. Now that we have had a chance for some early season action I cant help but think that the Triumph Hurdle in question is working out exceptionally well. Dont know if this is worse or better then I should expect it to work out but I think it is very good.

If you havent already backed him then I would recommend taking the 12/1 available with PP for the Champion hurdle. The division is looking weak (H Fly aside) - I mean I cant have it that Overturn is actually improving, rather the others are dross. There is nothing coming in the division to worry me other than the jolly. Spirit Son put in his best perfromance over 2m4f which is enough to knock him for me. (Pedlers X anyone?). Everything else with perhaps the exception of Unaccompanied cant bother him.

Just on this, if you are looking to take on HF I'd be getting on before he runs on Sunday. During the Summer he was treated for a tendon problem and with those kind of injuries you don't always know if they are right until the pressure comes on.

[biscuits]

just got word from a friend of mine in england with a tip for mr chippy in the 3 30 in ffos las he is 7/2 now on pp!!! just thought would pass on the word

hope someone backed him!!!!!!

[Wesley Harms]

I've just backed Rock on Ruby for the CH. was rewatching last weekends racing and that was a super performance IMO

Value to be had

[The Situation]

Suppose I'll be adding Zarkandar to Quito on Chelt antipost list then.12's may not last much longer after that column.