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Old 31-07-18, 09:10   #38961
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Strewelpeter View Post
Too much money and not enough builders could lead to another disaster.
The vast majority of the money being invested in residential in Dublin is international finance pulling out of retail and whatever the Fintard groupthink dictated was going to tick upwards forever a few years ago. The moment the stock markets take their inevitable dive and they have to pay the piper then Allsops will be back flogging them for ten a penny.
If we don't get the scheduled projects built and occupied before the crash then it will look similar to 2009 with half built projects and no money to finish them.
We have a completely different debt dynamic this time.
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Old 31-07-18, 09:20   #38962
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Did it ever occur to you that maybe he just grew up doing his own thing. Arty, followed his musical desires, knew fuck all about politics and cared less. Perhaps hoping to grow up as David Kitt, musician. Not David Kitt, son of. Recognised as one, not "tarred" as another. His own man. Perhaps?
He was pretty much always thought of in my mind as such until this article where he blames FG for Daddies mates fuck up and comes across as a crony

So now I think he is either has zero self awareness or is a spoilt idiot child playing around till he gets daddies money (which is fine until he starts writing back door FF hatchet jobs)

** TBH by tomorrow I will probably think about him as much as usual, which will be about once every two years when I see his name somewhere

Btw I'm somewhat in the same boat, as any thought of moving back to Dublin was quickly pushed out of my head by the realities of the market

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Originally Posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
Bear in mind also that there's a huge number of homes coming on stream over next two/three years, directly as a result of Eoghan Murphy changing the planning system to bypass local authorities for major developments (has knocked about 12 months off planning wait). And blaming FG for the collapse of the building sector during the crisis is a bit mad. Takes a while to rebuild an entire sector.

The underlying economics would have rebuilt the sector anyway, but FG seem to have speeded it up.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Strewelpeter View Post
Too much money and not enough builders could lead to another disaster.
The vast majority of the money being invested in residential in Dublin is international finance pulling out of retail and whatever the Fintard groupthink dictated was going to tick upwards forever a few years ago. The moment the stock markets take their inevitable dive and they have to pay the piper then Allsops will be back flogging them for ten a penny.
If we don't get the scheduled projects built and occupied before the crash then it will look similar to 2009 with half built projects and no money to finish them.
Awful lot of Irish builders living in England since the crash, not to mention those who went bankrupt or retired.

Not sure how many young fellas took up the trades to fill the gap

With the fear of Brexit in the air, maybe we should try and get some home along with some English/Polish lads?
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Old 31-07-18, 09:23   #38963
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with all this talk of houses, urgh, it's official. we are house hunting. prices are jumping around quite a bit so low ball offers are de rigueur!!
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Old 31-07-18, 09:28   #38964
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with all this talk of houses, urgh, it's official. we are house hunting. prices are jumping around quite a bit so low ball offers are de rigueur!!
In London? Ballsy move if so.

Would you not wait to see how Brexipocalypse plays out?
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Old 31-07-18, 09:32   #38965
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We have a completely different debt dynamic this time.
That's what I'm saying, maybe it is just different type of debt will create a different type of problem but this money is leveraged from an irrational stock market just as insane an as a taxi driver with a dozen properties on interest only.
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Old 31-07-18, 09:33   #38966
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In London? Ballsy move if so.

Would you not wait to see how Brexipocalypse plays out?
He is going to need somewhere to store all the baked beans and dried milk so has to buy now
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Old 31-07-18, 09:39   #38967
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In London? Ballsy move if so.

Would you not wait to see how Brexipocalypse plays out?
we're just in the initial stages, so doubtful anything will go through before brexit.

As there's a lot of confusion and uncertainty, there are starting to be some good deals already, and people are lowering prices incredibly quickly, an looking for a quick sale. If we can get a good deal, get a bigger and nicer place than what we have now and pay the same amount we are currently paying on rent, then it starts to make sense for us.
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Old 31-07-18, 09:44   #38968
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Meanwhile in London, this shit still happening:

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Old 31-07-18, 10:10   #38969
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we're just in the initial stages, so doubtful anything will go through before brexit.

As there's a lot of confusion and uncertainty, there are starting to be some good deals already, and people are lowering prices incredibly quickly, an looking for a quick sale. If we can get a good deal, get a bigger and nicer place than what we have now and pay the same amount we are currently paying on rent, then it starts to make sense for us.
I wouldn't be locking myself into a commitment for the rest of my working life at this point!

Good luck though. I'll buy your gaff with my spare change when the Brexit zombies are roaming the streets and eating your brains.
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Old 31-07-18, 11:03   #38970
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WTF are we going to do if Brexit turns out through a series of unintended consequences to be a tremendous success for the thickos promoting it and its only us who end up in the shitter over it ?
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Old 31-07-18, 11:08   #38971
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I wouldn't be locking myself into a commitment for the rest of my working life at this point!

Good luck though. I'll buy your gaff with my spare change when the Brexit zombies are roaming the streets and eating your brains.
Jaysus I’m not so sure I’d be shooting my mouth off sitting in Dublin. We’re very exposed if Brexit goes really badly and a few back office fund admin jobs relocating here from London aren’t going to save us. A lot more votes in jacking up taxes to support the rural community that will get a severe kicking with a hard or no deal Brexit imo.

There was an interesting article in finance news the other day referring to a grandee committee of the city and they seemed to think it is a lock that Teresa May doesn’t survive until March 2019. Not only do they think it but CEOs of large financial institutions were saying it on the record. Wargaming what that means for the sort of fall over the line Brexit that ends up happening is sobering.

Very hard Brexit or no deal Brexit or else a Labour govt and a short extension to the negotiating period. All of which have to mean a severe UK recession and throw in one for us as well.

I presume you are sitting on a cash pile waiting to pounce on the inevitable value that’s going to arise in Clontarf and not worrying about Shrap in London.
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Old 31-07-18, 11:11   #38972
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WTF are we going to do if Brexit turns out through a series of unintended consequences to be a tremendous success for the thickos promoting it and its only us who end up in the shitter over it ?
I can’t see how it will be a tremendous success in any medium term timeline. Over the very long run deregulation and being able to act nimbly might really get the UK into a decent place but only after the ordinary peeps have been completely fucked. I think if that happens it’ll force the EU to get their shit together a bit which has to be a good thing but by that stage anything could have happened. For at least 5 years and more likely 10+ years this is only lose lose.

Time to start applying to Trump for a visa Tony.
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Old 31-07-18, 11:25   #38973
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WTF are we going to do if Brexit turns out through a series of unintended consequences to be a tremendous success for the thickos promoting it and its only us who end up in the shitter over it ?
I dont see how it possibly could be.
The fact that leavers are invoking Big Sandwich as potential fear mongers shows how far down the rabbit hole they are

Spoiler


British medical association have released their findings on Brexit impact on healthcare
spoiler: it's bad
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/h...-a8470336.html

Add in the fact that Dover continues to be a nightmare
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Old 31-07-18, 11:35   #38974
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As big a recession as the UK may experience for 5 or 10 years, London weathers it much better than the rest of the UK generally. IMO, once the uncertainty and the ugliness of brexit is over, then London will start looking attractive again for a lot of people. market is heading south but it'll look more like a correction than a crash. Impossible to tell, so it's all just guesswork at this stage.
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Old 31-07-18, 11:48   #38975
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As big a recession as the UK may experience for 5 or 10 years, London weathers it much better than the rest of the UK generally. IMO, once the uncertainty and the ugliness of brexit is over, then London will start looking attractive again for a lot of people. market is heading south but it'll look more like a correction than a crash. Impossible to tell, so it's all just guesswork at this stage.
In general I agree but the impact on financial services could be huge and that impact is unquantifiable on London. If everyone fucks off to follow their well paid job to Frankfurt or Paris etc how quickly will London bounce back? Quite the wall of foreign money propping up London but how does that look if things go a bit squiffy?


When the law firms can’t sell services and the money managers need to be based elsewhere it all gets a bit tricky...At this stage the only certainty is that the frictionless trade in services and the ability to attract european talent is severely curtailed so what does that mean for London? Singapore on Thames will take quite some structural and huge changes as well and several years to bear fruit.


And that’s without a socialist govt running the shop. I’m hoping it’ll be a relatively minor derailment but given the series of poor decisions and in fighting that has happened since 23rd of June 2016 assuming it’ll all be fine in a year or two looks decidedly optimistic when previously it was more a middle of the road reasonable view.

At least you’ll have your passport and sterling debt Shrap!
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Old 31-07-18, 14:24   #38976
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new trailer
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Old 31-07-18, 15:37   #38977
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personally, can't wait for this documentary. this man is a legend

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Old 31-07-18, 17:26   #38978
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I'd go max borrowings on that mortgage Shrap, and keep your euro Paris apartment money available as a backup.

Obviously it won't be anything like as bad as predicted. But it's going to be a fairly miserable decade.

Key protections for London is it will always be a destination for rest of UK so should be absolute last to collapse. On the other side though those threats they are making to confiscate Russian assets will have been heard loud and wide not just in London, but also China and wherever else London property gets its dodgy money from. That could dry up overnight with the wrong words.

But then again it's a family home and you're reasonably confident of where you are at career wise: it's a nice feeling to have somewhere to really call home.
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Old 31-07-18, 17:33   #38979
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Originally Posted by V for Vendetta View Post
Jaysus I’m not so sure I’d be shooting my mouth off sitting in Dublin. We’re very exposed if Brexit goes really badly and a few back office fund admin jobs relocating here from London aren’t going to save us. A lot more votes in jacking up taxes to support the rural community that will get a severe kicking with a hard or no deal Brexit imo.

There was an interesting article in finance news the other day referring to a grandee committee of the city and they seemed to think it is a lock that Teresa May doesn’t survive until March 2019. Not only do they think it but CEOs of large financial institutions were saying it on the record. Wargaming what that means for the sort of fall over the line Brexit that ends up happening is sobering.

Very hard Brexit or no deal Brexit or else a Labour govt and a short extension to the negotiating period. All of which have to mean a severe UK recession and throw in one for us as well.

I presume you are sitting on a cash pile waiting to pounce on the inevitable value that’s going to arise in Clontarf and not worrying about Shrap in London.
Yeah the type of jobs we'll get are very different to the ones that will be lost. There's so little effort to really market Irish agri on the continent. Like you'd go through a giant hypermarket here and not see a single Irish agri product.

The Irish gov running a budget deficit due to paying ridic wage increases to public sector is madness. Also they seem to have stopped all attempts at reform - property tax stalled, cutting USC which was a decent attempt at making sure everyone paid at least something, and no institutional reform (like the obvious ideas of merging revenue + social welfare, getting rid of semi states).
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Old 31-07-18, 18:12   #38980
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Yeah the type of jobs we'll get are very different to the ones that will be lost. There's so little effort to really market Irish agri on the continent. Like you'd go through a giant hypermarket here and not see a single Irish agri product.

The Irish gov running a budget deficit due to paying ridic wage increases to public sector is madness. Also they seem to have stopped all attempts at reform - property tax stalled, cutting USC which was a decent attempt at making sure everyone paid at least something, and no institutional reform (like the obvious ideas of merging revenue + social welfare, getting rid of semi states).
That's what The Great Irish Voting Public demand!

Remember water charges?
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