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    ...
    "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

    Comment


      Originally posted by Fonkey View Post
      Joe Carey 3/1 in Clare constituency. Was as big as 5s earlier today. Sitting FG TD. Was 1/10 when market opened and was 1/6 a few days ago. The massive drift is because of a poll of 600 people the local paper ran in this weeks edition that showed him fairing poorly.
      Massive over-reaction to a small size poll. The general consensus was that he could come under pressure to keep his seat but think he may be worth a punt.
      Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
      Those local polls are worst that useless. (according to Eoin O'Malley from DCU who seems on the ball on these things). Sounds like a great bet therefore.
      Most national polls seem to have a sample size of around 1000, so a sample size of 600 in one constituency would seem like better quality of information.

      Don't know if O'Malleys complaint with them is sample size, or quality of randomness, or maybe how little they tell about national picture etc...

      Comment


        ...
        "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

        Comment


          1,000 is enough (well almost).

          If you are willing to accept a 3% error rate, then at 95% confidence 1,066 is the sample you need for a population of 1 million. The sample you need under the same conditions for a population of 10 million only increases by 1 person to 1,067. This is not taking into account different demographic groups.

          One problem is that Ireland's electoral register is way off:


          It says that according to the last census 3,023,025 are entitled to vote. In the same sex marriage referendum 3,221,681 polling cards were issued. 200,000 more than are eligible. Now assuming that everyone who is entitled to vote does not register, but that it is at around 85% then that means that over 600,000 more polling cards were issued than there were people eligible to vote.

          Comment


            ...
            "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

            Comment


              Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
              And by the same statistical logic, 600 isn't enough for a representative sample of a constituency. I guess thats what O'Malley (son of Des, i think) was getting at.
              No, he's wrong, if we are taking 1,000 as being okay for the national population sample, then the 2011 Clare constituency had a turnout of 82,745. So 3% error rate, at 95% confidence, then a sample of only 439 is needed.

              Also on the Red C Fine Gael "bias", it appears that Red C provides their sample data according to those who express that are likely to vote - Fine Gael voters seem to be more likely to vote. Unlike Sinn Feiners for example.

              Comment


                ...
                "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                Comment


                  Very bizarre election so far....the prevailing emotion seems to be 'none of the above'. Somebody has to break out of their range in the last week, my guess is FG, as per the British GE.
                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                    Very bizarre election so far....the prevailing emotion seems to be 'none of the above'. Somebody has to break out of their range in the last week, my guess is FG, as per the British GE.
                    Can only see the gap narrowing between FG and FF. A lot of the votes that left the FF party in 2011 seem to be returning.

                    I see Enda has been sent over to Brussels for a weekend retreat.

                    Comment


                      Have FG said they won't go into government with FF? If that is the case, then given FF have said they won't do business with FG and both have said they won't (and can't) do business with SF, there really is no possible government that doesn't include about 20 independents surely?

                      I know politicians and what they say is never really trustworthy, but it really is a clusterfuck of a situation.

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by 5starpool View Post
                        Have FG said they won't go into government with FF? If that is the case, then given FF have said they won't do business with FG and both have said they won't (and can't) do business with SF, there really is no possible government that doesn't include about 20 independents surely?

                        I know politicians and what they say is never really trustworthy, but it really is a clusterfuck of a situation.
                        We do have a long and glorious history of "if at first you don't succeed....then vote again until you do." Could well happen with this GE. It's hard to see any stable government emerging.

                        Independents are the ruination of the polity. They should fuck off to the County Councils where they belong.
                        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                        Comment


                          B&A poll which was due to be released in the ST this Sunday appears to have been leaked on their website (now gone) details are going around Twitter. From what I can gather polling took place on the 14th and 15th so both before and after the RTE debate.

                          SPOILER
                          The sport that unites Catholic, Protestant and dissenter has had its day of days. Pity anybody who can't enjoy it. Some day. Gerry Thornley 23/3/09

                          Comment


                            If that poll proves to be accurate, lol Labour.
                            The sport that unites Catholic, Protestant and dissenter has had its day of days. Pity anybody who can't enjoy it. Some day. Gerry Thornley 23/3/09

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by Mickey Rosa View Post
                              B&A poll which was due to be released in the ST this Sunday appears to have been leaked on their website (now gone) details are going around Twitter. From what I can gather polling took place on the 14th and 15th so both before and after the RTE debate.

                              SPOILER
                              Not great for SF either. Entirely possible Labour have <5 seats now.
                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by angle_grinder View Post
                                Can only see the gap narrowing between FG and FF. A lot of the votes that left the FF party in 2011 seem to be returning.

                                I see Enda has been sent over to Brussels for a weekend retreat.
                                Are you actually employed by FF to go onto sites and do this or is it a hobby?

                                Comment


                                  Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                  We do have a long and glorious history of "if at first you don't succeed....then vote again until you do." Could well happen with this GE. It's hard to see any stable government emerging.

                                  Independents are the ruination of the polity. They should fuck off to the County Councils where they belong.
                                  Yeah I agree. A small number like Clare Daly, Mick Wallace and Ming who challenged the Government on important issues in the national interest are enough.

                                  Most other Independents are motivated to run because of particular issues and don't focus on the bigger picture.

                                  Of course then you have Lowry and the the Healy Rae family in Kerry who are the third type of Independent that run for a Dail seat.
                                  Last edited by angle_grinder; 19-02-16, 22:20.

                                  Comment


                                    Originally posted by hotspur View Post
                                    Are you actually employed by FF to go onto sites and do this or is it a hobby?
                                    I'm not employed by anyone as I haven't had a job in 5 years. Feel free to challenge me on any of my post's if you disagree though.

                                    I'm not trying to have a go. Just interested in your own thoughts.

                                    And I know it's a betting thread so just to clarify my recommended bets so far are Fine Gael less than 60.5 seats and Pearse Doherty to win the most first preference votes.

                                    Comment


                                      Originally posted by Mickey Rosa View Post
                                      B&A poll which was due to be released in the ST this Sunday appears to have been leaked on their website (now gone) details are going around Twitter. From what I can gather polling took place on the 14th and 15th so both before and after the RTE debate.

                                      SPOILER
                                      Originally posted by Mickey Rosa View Post
                                      If that poll proves to be accurate, lol Labour.
                                      It also puts FF/FG at over 50% ( first poll to do so I think), if reflected in the GE it would make it easier to sell a coalition to the ground troops.

                                      Comment


                                        Originally posted by angle_grinder View Post
                                        I'm not employed by anyone as I haven't had a job in 5 years. Feel free to challenge me on any of my post's if you disagree though.

                                        I'm not trying to have a go. Just interested in your own thoughts.

                                        And I know it's a betting thread so just to clarify my recommended bets so far are Fine Gael less than 60.5 seats and Pearse Doherty to win the most first preference votes.
                                        The current line on FG seats (with PP anyhow/0 is 51.5 seats, so less than 60.5 is probably fairly safe. Did you get a bet in when that was the line? Free money if so it seems.

                                        Comment


                                          Originally posted by 5starpool View Post
                                          The current line on FG seats (with PP anyhow/0 is 51.5 seats, so less than 60.5 is probably fairly safe. Did you get a bet in when that was the line? Free money if so it seems.
                                          Presume he did.
                                          Line was 60.5 last week in January and I think they only have 63 forward. Even with no clue or interest in politics I got in on the unders
                                          Go big or go homeless.

                                          Comment


                                            Originally posted by mdoug View Post
                                            Presume he did.
                                            Line was 60.5 last week in January and I think they only have 63 forward. Even with no clue or interest in politics I got in on the unders
                                            They have 80 odd forward but under 60.5 is looking pretty safe alright.

                                            Comment


                                              Originally posted by hotspur View Post
                                              No, he's wrong, if we are taking 1,000 as being okay for the national population sample, then the 2011 Clare constituency had a turnout of 82,745. So 3% error rate, at 95% confidence, then a sample of only 439 is needed.

                                              Also on the Red C Fine Gael "bias", it appears that Red C provides their sample data according to those who express that are likely to vote - Fine Gael voters seem to be more likely to vote. Unlike Sinn Feiners for example.
                                              Could you explain/reveal the formula for this please? Not doubting what you say, just haven't managed to figure out the math.

                                              Comment


                                                Originally posted by shano1888 View Post
                                                They have 80 odd forward but under 60.5 is looking pretty safe alright.
                                                70 I think after the defections. They won 76 and lost the 3 Renua TDs, Matthews, Naughton and I think another.

                                                One thing to bear in mind is that some of the FG candidates that got elected last time were very much of the bottom drawer in terms of quality. They literally didn't have enough proper candidates to go around (much like FF in the old days). Even with a happy electorate some of those would struggle as they could barely tie their own shoelaces. Not that this is solely a FG phenomenon. :

                                                With this in mind, plus the reduction in seats, 60 would have been a good result. I'm going to take a fresh look at the markets today.
                                                Last edited by Raoul Duke III; 20-02-16, 09:00.
                                                "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                Comment


                                                  Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                  70 I think after the defections. They won 76 and lost the 3 Renua TDs, Matthews, Naughton and I think another.

                                                  One thing to bear in mind is that some of the FG candidates that got elected last time were very much of the bottom drawer in terms of quality. They literally didn't have enough proper candidates to go around (much like FF in the old days). Even with a happy electorate some of those would struggle as they could barely tie their own shoelaces. Not that this is solely a FG phenomenon. :

                                                  With this in mind, plus the reduction in seats, 60 would have been a good result. I'm going to take a fresh look at the markets today.
                                                  I think doug was talking about the number of candidates running. Either way I think they will do very well to push 60 at this stage.

                                                  Comment


                                                    ...
                                                    "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                    Comment


                                                      Originally posted by shano1888 View Post
                                                      I think doug was talking about the number of candidates running. Either way I think they will do very well to push 60 at this stage.
                                                      Oh yeah, 100%. 60 would be 'wildest dreams' territory atm
                                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                      Comment




                                                        Having watched the video, I thought maybe drink was on board.
                                                        However they sound the same on the radio clip. So they always sound locked/a bit slow, especially Denny (as Michael calls him).
                                                        X can be anything, any number, that is what’s CRAZY about X.
                                                        Because X doesn’t roll like that, because X can’t be pinned down!

                                                        $ Free Travel Credit with Airbnb $

                                                        Comment


                                                          Originally posted by Lord Sir Christmas View Post
                                                          http://www.irishtimes.com/news/polit...ario-1.2541644

                                                          Having watched the video, I thought maybe drink was on board.
                                                          However they sound the same on the radio clip. So they always sound locked/a bit slow, especially Denny (as Michael calls him).
                                                          It's all part of the show

                                                          Comment


                                                            SBP/Red C poll
                                                            FG 30% (+2)
                                                            FF 18% (-)
                                                            SF 16% (-4)
                                                            Lab 8% (-)
                                                            Ind/Others 28% (+2)

                                                            Comment


                                                              Originally posted by horatio1 View Post
                                                              SBP/Red C poll
                                                              FG 30% (+2)
                                                              FF 18% (-)
                                                              SF 16% (-4)
                                                              Lab 8% (-)
                                                              Ind/Others 28% (+2)
                                                              Just pumped SF under 25.5. Tide moving against them last few days this provides some confirmation.

                                                              Comment


                                                                Originally posted by horatio1 View Post
                                                                SBP/Red C poll
                                                                FG 30% (+2)
                                                                FF 18% (-)
                                                                SF 16% (-4)
                                                                Lab 8% (-)
                                                                Ind/Others 28% (+2)
                                                                You have to be careful when tracking polls as the papers will compare them to their last poll, whereas the company concerned may have been commissioned by another outlet to do a poll with the same methodology.



                                                                As such, the changes here since the last Red C poll are:

                                                                FG 30% (+4)
                                                                FF 18% (-1)
                                                                SF 16% (-1)
                                                                Labour 8% (-1)

                                                                In that context, it means the FG jump is the only one outside the margin of error.
                                                                "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes

                                                                Comment


                                                                  Originally posted by Lplated View Post
                                                                  Could you explain/reveal the formula for this please? Not doubting what you say, just haven't managed to figure out the math.
                                                                  Well I have long since forgotten the actual formulae used in sample size statistics (probably due to trauma at having to learn and do exams writing out proofs of lots of formulae in psychology methodology).

                                                                  But you can just fie up an online calculator such as this:
                                                                  Creative Research Systems offers a free sample size calculator online. Learn more about our sample size calculator, and request a free quote on our survey systems and software for your business.


                                                                  The formula used in that one is here:
                                                                  View our sample size formulas for our sample size calculator from Creative Research Systems.

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    Originally posted by jack90210 View Post
                                                                    Just pumped SF under 25.5. Tide moving against them last few days this provides some confirmation.
                                                                    Yeah they are only going one way. Would they be not be better with Pearse Doherty as leader?

                                                                    Is the polling system for the National Elections the same as the Local Elections? All the polls were way off in the 2014 Local Elections.

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      Originally posted by angle_grinder View Post
                                                                      Yeah they are only going one way. Would they be not be better with Pearse Doherty as leader?

                                                                      Is the polling system for the National Elections the same as the Local Elections? All the polls were way off in the 2014 Local Elections.
                                                                      This is Adam's last election imo, and he was never going to go before 2016.
                                                                      "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View Post
                                                                        This is Adam's last election imo, and he was never going to go before 2016.
                                                                        Adams their biggest liability.

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          Originally posted by Lord Sir Christmas View Post
                                                                          http://www.irishtimes.com/news/polit...ario-1.2541644

                                                                          Having watched the video, I thought maybe drink was on board.
                                                                          However they sound the same on the radio clip. So they always sound locked/a bit slow, especially Denny (as Michael calls him).
                                                                          Ah you have to love it still. Watch J.B Keane. If he chose the political road he would be a shoe in after this!
                                                                          Let Irish play write John B. Keane justify all your decisions this weekend for you....

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View Post
                                                                            This is Adam's last election imo, and he was never going to go before 2016.
                                                                            I wouldn't be so sure there is very little sign of him stepping down.

                                                                            And if he was staying around for 2016 then why not stay on to commemorate the end of the War of Independence in 2021 which surely had more of an impact than the Easter Rising.

                                                                            And 2021 would also be the end of the next Government's 5 year cycle!!

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              Originally posted by jack90210 View Post
                                                                              Adams their biggest liability.
                                                                              He's performed poorly in a couple of election appearances. Nonetheless, if SF end up with 15% FPV and 20 seats he'll have headed quite the growth in support and relevance since the early nineties. Also worth noting that his approval ratings have held up well relative to other leaders since 2011.

                                                                              Now is the time for him to step aside (and he will imo), but I would probably disagree on the extent to which he has held on beyond the optimal retirement point.
                                                                              "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                Originally posted by angle_grinder View Post

                                                                                And 2021 would also be the end of the next Government's 5 year cycle!!
                                                                                Next govt will do well to last 12 months I reckon

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  I wont be voting again unless they switch around the polling clerks to random roads. Every single year its the same 2 clerks for my road and one of them is so life tilting ive stayed away from the last few elections/referendums.
                                                                                  Why on earth cant they not toggle around to random roads instead of the same clerks doing the same roads?.
                                                                                  I send in spotters to see if he is still there and every time he is and i dont vote.

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    on the macro level, Red C polls:

                                                                                    Feb 6th:

                                                                                    FG 31
                                                                                    FF 17
                                                                                    SF 17
                                                                                    Lab 10

                                                                                    Feb 20th:

                                                                                    FG 30
                                                                                    FF 18
                                                                                    SF 16
                                                                                    Lab 8

                                                                                    Which makes macro change over the election cycle thus far:

                                                                                    FG -1%
                                                                                    FF +1%
                                                                                    SF -1%
                                                                                    Lab -2%

                                                                                    I think that serves to put things in context. It would be very easy to assign the election pantomime more impact than it may be having.
                                                                                    "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      ...
                                                                                      "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        Sindo Millward Brown poll
                                                                                        FG 27%
                                                                                        Lab 6%
                                                                                        FF 23%
                                                                                        SF 19%
                                                                                        IND 12%
                                                                                        AAA-PPP 5%
                                                                                        SocDem 4%
                                                                                        GN 2%
                                                                                        RN 2%

                                                                                        We need more polls.

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          Any idea what percentage of unknown's were taken out?

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            Originally posted by angle_grinder View Post
                                                                                            Any idea what percentage of unknown's were taken out?
                                                                                            13%

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              Originally posted by horatio1 View Post
                                                                                              Sindo Millward Brown poll
                                                                                              FG 27%
                                                                                              Lab 6%
                                                                                              FF 23%
                                                                                              SF 19%
                                                                                              IND 12%
                                                                                              AAA-PPP 5%
                                                                                              SocDem 4%
                                                                                              GN 2%
                                                                                              RN 2%

                                                                                              We need more polls.
                                                                                              FG line has gone back up to 53.5

                                                                                              Labour now 9.5
                                                                                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                Would that be quite high? Some were around 20 earlier in the election

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  FG\FF coalition now odds on at 8/11

                                                                                                  seems like quite some time back we were all laughing at the very notion at 4/1
                                                                                                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                    Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                                    FG\FF coalition now odds on at 8/11

                                                                                                    seems like quite some time back we were all laughing at the very notion at 4/1
                                                                                                    Yeah but if they agree on a voting pact then technically it would be FG Minority which is 13/2
                                                                                                    Last edited by angle_grinder; 20-02-16, 21:53.

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                      Originally posted by angle_grinder View Post
                                                                                                      Would that be quite high? Some were around 20 earlier in the election
                                                                                                      Poll was carried out Weds /Thurs 1065 individuals at 100 locations nationwide. It says on Indo website that " uniquely" they only polled people who were certain or likely to vote.

                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                        Originally posted by horatio1 View Post
                                                                                                        Poll was carried out Weds /Thurs 1065 individuals at 100 locations nationwide. It says on Indo website that " uniquely" they only polled people who were certain or likely to vote.
                                                                                                        So there is 13 per cent to be fought for plus transfers from Independents which could prove vital. A lot of ground to be won or lost really.

                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                          Originally posted by angle_grinder View Post
                                                                                                          Yeah but if they agree on a voting pact then technically it would be FG Minority which is 13/2
                                                                                                          maybe if they were 4/5 short of a majority - not #20, as seems likely. It would be anti-democratic and the Opposition would have a field day.
                                                                                                          "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                                            @RDIII No seat for Hanafin in Dun Laoghaire ?

                                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                                              Originally posted by angle_grinder View Post
                                                                                                              Yeah but if they agree on a voting pact then technically it would be FG Minority which is 13/2
                                                                                                              Why would FF agree to a voting pact with FG where they get no ministers? What would be the benefit to them? I can see why it might be beneficial to a group of independents who can get some local issues addressed for their support but for the second largest party to do it would be unprecedented surely?

                                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                                I still expect a late swing towards FG ala the Conservatives in England. Wouldn't be surprised for them to finish up on 60+.

                                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                                  Originally posted by horatio1 View Post
                                                                                                                  @RDIII No seat for Hanafin in Dun Laoghaire ?
                                                                                                                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                                    Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                                                    FG\FF coalition now odds on at 8/11

                                                                                                                    seems like quite some time back we were all laughing at the very notion at 4/1
                                                                                                                    In fairness you did point out that there was no alternative on the first page of this thread.

                                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                                      Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View Post
                                                                                                                      on the macro level, Red C polls:

                                                                                                                      Feb 6th:

                                                                                                                      FG 31
                                                                                                                      FF 17
                                                                                                                      SF 17
                                                                                                                      Lab 10

                                                                                                                      Feb 20th:

                                                                                                                      FG 30
                                                                                                                      FF 18
                                                                                                                      SF 16
                                                                                                                      Lab 8

                                                                                                                      Which makes macro change over the election cycle thus far:

                                                                                                                      FG -1%
                                                                                                                      FF +1%
                                                                                                                      SF -1%
                                                                                                                      Lab -2%

                                                                                                                      I think that serves to put things in context. It would be very easy to assign the election pantomime more impact than it may be having.
                                                                                                                      To further this theme:

                                                                                                                      Behaviour and Attitudes

                                                                                                                      Feb 6th

                                                                                                                      FG 28
                                                                                                                      FF 20
                                                                                                                      SF 17
                                                                                                                      Lab 8

                                                                                                                      Feb 20th

                                                                                                                      FG 30
                                                                                                                      FF 22
                                                                                                                      SF 15
                                                                                                                      Lab 4

                                                                                                                      Change

                                                                                                                      FG +2%
                                                                                                                      FF +2%
                                                                                                                      SF -2%
                                                                                                                      Lab -4%

                                                                                                                      Millward Brown

                                                                                                                      Feb 6th

                                                                                                                      FG 27
                                                                                                                      FF 22
                                                                                                                      SF 21
                                                                                                                      Lab 6

                                                                                                                      Feb 20th

                                                                                                                      FG 27
                                                                                                                      FF 23
                                                                                                                      SF 19
                                                                                                                      Lab 6

                                                                                                                      Change

                                                                                                                      FG NC%
                                                                                                                      FF +1%
                                                                                                                      SF -2%
                                                                                                                      Lab NC%

                                                                                                                      Poll of Polls Change

                                                                                                                      FG +0.33%
                                                                                                                      FF +1.33%
                                                                                                                      SF -1.66%
                                                                                                                      Lab -2%




                                                                                                                      The only conclusions I'd draw really is that the election seems to be changing little. It's in the media's interest to try and sell narratives, and micro polling at short intervals helps create an illusion of dramatic shifts that don't really stack up imo.
                                                                                                                      Last edited by LuckyLloyd; 20-02-16, 23:25.
                                                                                                                      "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes

                                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                                        Originally posted by NiceandcoolTrig View Post
                                                                                                                        I still expect a late swing towards FG ala the Conservatives in England. Wouldn't be surprised for them to finish up on 60+.
                                                                                                                        A lot of voter's in England didn't want to admit they were going to vote conservative hence the polls were misleading. Think they call it a 'Shy Tory' vote.

                                                                                                                        In Ireland people who vote FG have no problem saying so in a poll whereas there is still a bit of stigma attached to FF so people who intend to vote FF might not want to do so publicly.

                                                                                                                        By that rationale if there is a late swing it might actually to be to FF

                                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                                          With such a short election campaign it's unlikely to change too much really. Isn't the PR system a big variable when it comes to these type of polls anyhow?

                                                                                                                          Comment

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