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    Bump. Let the fevered speculation commence.
    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

    Comment


      I see Feb 26th is generally agreed to be the date. wp Denny.

      FG\LAB now only 9/4 to form the next Govt. Might be a tiny bit of value in the various FG\LAB + one of Renua\SD\Indos - all 14\1+.

      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

      Comment


        Feel like you're trying to bbv me here

        Anyone that can pick out the future government deserves every penny they get.

        Comment


          Are there odds for 2 general elections this year? Reasonably likely scenario surely with either a hung Dail and no agreement or else an unlikely unstable one that collapses within 6 months.

          Comment


            Best place to lay a candidate getting elected??

            Comment


              Originally posted by Hooch View Post
              Best place to lay a candidate getting elected??
              This thread most likely.
              Profit before people.

              Comment


                Originally posted by Hooch View Post
                Best place to lay a candidate getting elected??
                Post up your prospective candidates - somebody will have an opinion.
                "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                Comment


                  Seamus Healy in Tipperary not to get in??

                  Comment


                    North Tipperary candidate s are spending big money on campaigns compared to there south counterparts, Jackie Cahill pulls a strong farming community with him plus popular local in thurles.
                    Seamus Healy will be number one in clonmel hands down and surrounding areas but will seriously struggle further afield.

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
                      What happened in Tipp this week that it now looks like 2 X FG (Lowry inc), 2 X FF, 1 X Lab? Has Jackie Cahill done something big down there this past week?
                      Will Kelly get in? He's controversial to say the least - and mouthy.
                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                        Will Kelly get in? He's controversial to say the least - and mouthy.
                        Fairly positive he will.
                        On t be otherhand looks like Cahill and Smith are both fighting for the same seat and find it hard to imagine both getting in.

                        Comment


                          Where do people think the 12 Labour TDs will come from?

                          Joan Bruton
                          Aodhán Ó Ríordáin
                          Brendan Howlin
                          Róisín Shortall
                          Emmet Stagg
                          Alex White
                          Ann Phelan


                          Knowledge of the country constituencies wouldn't be great.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Teddie View Post
                            Where do people think the 12 Labour TDs will come from?

                            Joan Bruton
                            Aodhán Ó Ríordáin
                            Brendan Howlin
                            Róisín Shortall
                            Emmet Stagg
                            Alex White
                            Ann Phelan


                            Knowledge of the country constituencies wouldn't be great.
                            Alan Kelly probably safe enough in the new 5 seater Tipp constituency.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by Teddie View Post
                              Where do people think the 12 Labour TDs will come from?

                              Joan Bruton
                              Aodhán Ó Ríordáin
                              Brendan Howlin
                              Róisín Shortall
                              Emmet Stagg
                              Alex White
                              Ann Phelan


                              Knowledge of the country constituencies wouldn't be great.
                              Ann Phelan with a decent shout in carlow / kk.

                              Ciara Conway will 100% lose her seat in Waterford anyway

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
                                What happened in Tipp this week that it now looks like 2 X FG (Lowry inc), 2 X FF, 1 X Lab? Has Jackie Cahill done something big down there this past week?
                                Im pretty sure Mattie McGrath is a cert to be honest.
                                Pm for rakeback deals

                                Comment


                                  Originally posted by Teddie View Post
                                  Where do people think the 12 Labour TDs will come from?

                                  Joan Bruton
                                  Aodhán Ó Ríordáin
                                  Brendan Howlin
                                  Róisín Shortall
                                  Emmet Stagg
                                  Alex White
                                  Ann Phelan


                                  Knowledge of the country constituencies wouldn't be great.
                                  Knowledge of the candidates wouldn't be great either .....

                                  Roisin Shortall left labour a long time back, has in more recent times set up a new party. (Given that there are at least two months to the election, it is at least possible that she will be relected as a labour td).

                                  Comment


                                    Originally posted by Teddie View Post
                                    Where do people think the 12 Labour TDs will come from?

                                    Joan Bruton
                                    Aodhán Ó Ríordáin
                                    Brendan Howlin
                                    Róisín Shortall
                                    Emmet Stagg
                                    Alex White
                                    Ann Phelan


                                    Knowledge of the country constituencies wouldn't be great.
                                    Roisin Shortall isn't in Labour any more

                                    As a general observation, there's not much value in the markets on any incumbent candidates. Could be some value in first-time FF candidates around the country however.

                                    Comment


                                      Originally posted by tipp86 View Post
                                      Im pretty sure Mattie McGrath is a cert to be honest.
                                      The constituency redraw didn't really favour him. Not certain of the amount of constituents that affects but I do remember him being annoyed at the time of it. Difficult for an Independent to become known in new areas.

                                      Comment


                                        Ha, didn't realise she left. The Social Democrats look like an interesting bunch as well.

                                        Comment


                                          How would people price up FF +/- 39.5? Line is 31.5 atm.

                                          Comment


                                            Originally posted by KevIRL View Post
                                            Ann Phelan with a decent shout in carlow / kk.
                                            I was looking at both her and Anne Ferris in Wickla price the other day and both were 11/4 . Phelan was cut to 7/4 over the weekend and is now 6/4. Was there a local opinion poll ?

                                            Of the two I thought Ferris was the value. Phelan looks likely to be in a battle with two FG candidates for the last seat so is unlikely to get any benefit from the voting pact. FG run 3 in Wicklow, Harris should top the poll with Doyle taking the 4th seat. The other FG will have been eliminated so she should do well on transfers if the voting pact is successful.

                                            Labour got around 16% 1st pref in Wicklow last time . Ferris got 7% , but Labour ran 3 in Wicklow so she might not be far off that 1st pref again. She is the outsider in what looks like a 3 way battle with Billy Timmins (Renua ) and Pat Casey (FF). Timmins won a seat for FG in 2011 and is effectively an independent. With Stephen Donnelly a cert to be elected Timmins could be vulnerable, if he was eliminated first of the 3 she could take it.

                                            I'm surprised Howlin isn't quoted in the next Tánaiste market. Burton looks in trouble ( but if she is they might not get enough seats to warrant getting the Tánaiste gig) and I cant see Enda wanting Kelly for it .

                                            Comment


                                              Originally posted by horatio1 View Post
                                              I'm surprised Howlin isn't quoted in the next Tánaiste market. Burton looks in trouble ( but if she is they might not get enough seats to warrant getting the Tánaiste gig) and I cant see Enda wanting Kelly for it .
                                              Michael McGrath next Tanaiste isn't the worst bet in the world.
                                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                              Comment


                                                What bookmaker is doing individual constituency betting? Can't find it on PP.

                                                nm found it
                                                Last edited by careca; 19-01-16, 09:13.

                                                Comment


                                                  Michael Healy Rae a lock in Kerry south

                                                  Comment


                                                    Originally posted by dobby View Post
                                                    Michael Healy Rae a lock in Kerry south
                                                    except there won't be a Kerry south this time. Kerry one 5 seater. This is the one I want to look at the betting for. Have a sneaky outsider that could do well imo.

                                                    Comment


                                                      ...
                                                      "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                      Comment


                                                        Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                        Michael McGrath next Tanaiste isn't the worst bet in the world.
                                                        It's too late for a heave against Martin and if he manages to manoeuvre FF into a position to be part of a coalition then I think that would be seen as a successful campaign by FF supporters.

                                                        Comment


                                                          Originally posted by horatio1 View Post
                                                          I was looking at both her and Anne Ferris in Wickla price the other day and both were 11/4 . Phelan was cut to 7/4 over the weekend and is now 6/4. Was there a local opinion poll ?

                                                          Of the two I thought Ferris was the value. Phelan looks likely to be in a battle with two FG candidates for the last seat so is unlikely to get any benefit from the voting pact. FG run 3 in Wicklow, Harris should top the poll with Doyle taking the 4th seat. The other FG will have been eliminated so she should do well on transfers if the voting pact is successful.

                                                          Labour got around 16% 1st pref in Wicklow last time . Ferris got 7% , but Labour ran 3 in Wicklow so she might not be far off that 1st pref again. She is the outsider in what looks like a 3 way battle with Billy Timmins (Renua ) and Pat Casey (FF). Timmins won a seat for FG in 2011 and is effectively an independent. With Stephen Donnelly a cert to be elected Timmins could be vulnerable, if he was eliminated first of the 3 she could take it.

                                                          I'm surprised Howlin isn't quoted in the next Tánaiste market. Burton looks in trouble ( but if she is they might not get enough seats to warrant getting the Tánaiste gig) and I cant see Enda wanting Kelly for it .
                                                          Prices were based on the initial national Red C poll but now it's the money making the market. If you see someone shortening, then it means there's been some big bets on them.
                                                          Last edited by AdMMM; 19-01-16, 11:20.

                                                          Comment


                                                            Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                            He would actually hold FF together in a coalition, as he has a bit of fight to him. Presumably the wider party is secretly aware that Martin is about as effective as Cowen.
                                                            Martin gets FF their 30 seats - gets shipped off to Brussels - McGrath steps in and does the deal.
                                                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                            Comment


                                                              Maybe they'll be blinded by the minor amount of power, cars and salary, but FF going into coalition would be madness. My sources told me they (sensibly) want another round of opposition.

                                                              Comment


                                                                Originally posted by careca View Post
                                                                except there won't be a Kerry south this time. Kerry one 5 seater. This is the one I want to look at the betting for. Have a sneaky outsider that could do well imo.
                                                                Know f all about politics anyway.

                                                                I'll have to get onto my local Fianna Fail man again and lay whatever RD3 is baetting on

                                                                Comment


                                                                  Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
                                                                  Maybe they'll be blinded by the minor amount of power, cars and salary, but FF going into coalition would be madness. My sources told me they (sensibly) want another round of opposition.
                                                                  Their membership is dying out though. Surely they want one last spin?
                                                                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                    Their membership is dying out though. Surely they want one last spin?
                                                                    Possibly. That's part of what finished off labour.

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
                                                                      Maybe they'll be blinded by the minor amount of power, cars and salary, but FF going into coalition would be madness. My sources told me they (sensibly) want another round of opposition.
                                                                      I think MM's only out is going into government after an immediate second election and at that he needs to have scored more than 28 and less than 35. Lower and resigns election night, more and he could be forced into government with FG and he cannot credibly lead them there IMO

                                                                      RDIII's 10/1 Michael McGrath next Tanaiste looks a tasty bit of valooo considering next government markets...unless he was to get shafted by someone like Hanifin if she was to outperform personally
                                                                      Anyone else a threat? (I'm ruling out Calleary)
                                                                      Turning millions into thousands

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        Originally posted by Teddie View Post
                                                                        Where do people think the 12 Labour TDs will come from?

                                                                        Joan Bruton
                                                                        Aodhán Ó Ríordáin
                                                                        Brendan Howlin
                                                                        Róisín Shortall
                                                                        Emmet Stagg
                                                                        Alex White
                                                                        Ann Phelan


                                                                        Knowledge of the country constituencies wouldn't be great.
                                                                        Of the 31 Constituencies PP have quoted the list below are odds on;

                                                                        Willie Penrose 1/25
                                                                        Brendan Howlin 1/10
                                                                        Brendan Ryan 1/5
                                                                        Alan Kelly 1/4
                                                                        Emmett Stagg 1/3
                                                                        Joan Burton 1/2
                                                                        Kevin Humphreys 8/15
                                                                        Jan O Sullivan 4/7
                                                                        Mark Wall 4/6
                                                                        Sean Sherlock 8/11

                                                                        Although odds on both Burton and O'Sullivan are outsiders to longer odds on shots in the battle for the last seat.

                                                                        9 constituencies not quoted including O 'Riordans , Kathleen Lynch and Gerald Nash.

                                                                        It looks like they will need a lot of help from the voting pact to hit 12.

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          ...
                                                                          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post


                                                                            The idea that it wouldn't be a Friday, given that FG/Lab vote is much younger than the FF vote, and students / younger workers might need to go back to their constituency, is madness. So that counts out every Thursday. 26th seems like free cash, as 19th is too soon, and accepted wisdom with strong hints from the gov is that its happening in Feb.
                                                                            The 26th was priced up @ 1/4 or 1/6 last week though so bit of a drift. Don't know how much that actually means though.

                                                                            Just looked there its 1/9 now. Hope you got on!!
                                                                            Last edited by shano1888; 21-01-16, 13:10.

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              Loads of constituency odds up now, I see nothing jumping out at me yet

                                                                              Michael Lowry 1/50, ffs
                                                                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                Kerry

                                                                                any chance Arthur Spring gets in? Kerry is as tribal as it gets and the Spring name could offset the national disaster for Labour

                                                                                careca?
                                                                                "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  Sligo-Leitrim

                                                                                  another interesting market
                                                                                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    Dublin South-West


                                                                                    Last two seats well and truly open
                                                                                    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      Dun Laoghaire

                                                                                      Hardly two FF quotas here?
                                                                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        Offaly

                                                                                        who gets the last seat here?
                                                                                        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                          Dun Laoghaire

                                                                                          Hardly two FF quotas here?
                                                                                          There's only 3 seats with CC automatically elected

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                            Loads of constituency odds up now, I see nothing jumping out at me yet

                                                                                            Michael Lowry 1/50, ffs
                                                                                            All constituencies are up and the odds are diabolical , Bookies always play it very safe because local knowledge can be better than odds setters.

                                                                                            There were a few decent bets but they disappeared after a few minutes.

                                                                                            The last constituency to go up was Dublin Bay North, went up earlier today and was taken down after a few minutes.

                                                                                            When it went back up Finian McGrath had gone from 4/7 to 1/25.

                                                                                            Someone obv. lumped on there!

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                              Loads of constituency odds up now, I see nothing jumping out at me yet

                                                                                              Michael Lowry 1/50, ffs
                                                                                              There has been quite a gamble on him getting the most 1st prefs , 3/1 3rd fav behind Adams and Kenny having been 10 or 12/1 last week.

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View Post
                                                                                                I still think theres a good chance that dobby is Riggers most successful troll account.
                                                                                                bit of an insult to dave?
                                                                                                X can be anything, any number, that is what’s CRAZY about X.
                                                                                                Because X doesn’t roll like that, because X can’t be pinned down!

                                                                                                $ Free Travel Credit with Airbnb $

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  Might be a bit of value in Roscommon.

                                                                                                  They have Maura Hopkins(2/9) as the favourite for the third seat but Fine Gael are detested after they went back on their pre-election guarantee and closed the A&E in Roscommon Hospital.

                                                                                                  Enda Naughten was whipped from the party for voting against them and he is certain to top the poll with Michael Fitzmaurice, Ming's successor, pretty certain to finish just behind him.

                                                                                                  Fianna Fail's Eugene Murphy(9/4) is a long time County Councillor who works on local radio and would have a bit of popularity about him. I don't see Claire Kerrane(4/1) garnering enough transfers to have a chance. Shane Curran(6/1) is a former county football star and very well known and popular all over the county. I think there is a real good chance he can snag that last seat for Fianna Fail ahead of Hopkins and Murphy. I think it's likely that one of the FF'ers get that last seat given that there will be very little tranfers to Hopkins as the party is despised and I think that when the lower FF'er gets eliminated that the one left standing will be head of Hopkins.
                                                                                                  'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                    Just for further reading on this, here is the by-election results from 2014. This was to replace Ming.



                                                                                                    Hopkins finished third, FF'er topped the poll but struggled with transfers. Connaughton wouldn't have anything close to the popularity of Curran imo.
                                                                                                    'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                      Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                                      Kerry

                                                                                                      any chance Arthur Spring gets in? Kerry is as tribal as it gets and the Spring name could offset the national disaster for Labour

                                                                                                      careca?
                                                                                                      Slim to none imo. Name isn't as strong as it once was and he wouldn't be in the same mould as his uncle.

                                                                                                      My outside tip for the constituency is Norma Moriarty FF. She is 5/1 but there could be a bit of value there. Her uncle is Micko Dwyer and her brother in law Maurice Fitzgerald (Kerry GAA legends). They would both be big vote pullers. I'd also expect her to get support from John O'Donoghue (could be a bad thing ) as he is from a neighbouring village. FF would always have had a huge support in Kerry and if they can pull any of that back she might have a sneak.

                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                        Ha, you can bet on the election to be in Feb at 1/10, or on the 26th of Feb at 1/10


                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                          Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
                                                                                                          Ha, you can bet on the election to be in Feb at 1/10, or on the 26th of Feb at 1/10

                                                                                                          http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politi...rp_ids=2247317
                                                                                                          PP not taking any chances anywhere
                                                                                                          "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                                            Originally posted by eagle eye View Post
                                                                                                            Just for further reading on this, here is the by-election results from 2014. This was to replace Ming.



                                                                                                            Hopkins finished third, FF'er topped the poll but struggled with transfers. Connaughton wouldn't have anything close to the popularity of Curran imo.
                                                                                                            Any idea on how the new boundary changes things?

                                                                                                            Does anyone lose a chunk of votes in South Leitrim, anyone gain big time from Galway vote?

                                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                                              Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
                                                                                                              Ha, you can bet on the election to be in Feb at 1/10, or on the 26th of Feb at 1/10

                                                                                                              http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politi...rp_ids=2247317
                                                                                                              Did they not rule out having it any other day than Friday which leaves 26th the only possible date in Feb
                                                                                                              Turning millions into thousands

                                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                                Originally posted by BigDeal View Post
                                                                                                                Any idea on how the new boundary changes things?

                                                                                                                Does anyone lose a chunk of votes in South Leitrim, anyone gain big time from Galway vote?
                                                                                                                That was the old constituency and it was a certain FF seat and then FF, FG and an Independent fighting for the other two seats in the more recent elections(since mid 70's).

                                                                                                                I'm pretty good at understanding how people think about public figures but I hadn't even looked at this stuff until last night and when I seen the price of Shane Curran I was on immediately. Curran could top the poll on the first count, not certain to get in then but I'd expect him to take that third seat.

                                                                                                                The guy had very good sales locally with his autobiography.

                                                                                                                From a minor football he has been well known. He took a penalty he wasn't supposed to take and score with the last kick of the game in a Connacht Minor final which caused controversy. He was an outfield player for his local GAA club and played for the county outfield at one stage. Then he went off and played for Athlone Town FC in soccer and moved close to Athlone and started playing for St Brigids GAA club who became the dominant force in Roscommon around that time. He was back on the County Roscommon team then as Goalkeeper for a good few years and won an All-Ireland club title with St Brigids. The guy is also a character, intelligent, witty and pretty much loved by all age groups. I've been told he did a very funny rant on the Sunday Game, I didn't get to see it but those who watched it and know him said he was basically taking the piss Joe Brolly by going completely ott and acting as if he was stressed. Here is an article telling you a good bit about the guy.

                                                                                                                Damn you Cake. There I was having a leisurely look at the sports pages on Sunday only to be confronted with a plethora of references to 'St Brigid's veteran goalkeeper, 41-year-old Shane Curran,' after the Roscommon side defeated Crossmaglen Rangers in the All-Ireland semi-final.


                                                                                                                What is not written there is that h is a very calm guy and always smiling. If somebody starts ranting at him he will pay attention, smile and wait for his opportunity to win the day.

                                                                                                                He really is just an easy sell to the public who want a guy like him to do well.
                                                                                                                'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick

                                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                                  Might be worth a gamble, do you anything about the FF party in the constituency?

                                                                                                                  I heard there was a lot of infighting and bad feeling in FF there, the decision was to run one candidate, the fact Curran was being added to the ticket despite not going forward for selection convention (and according to some not even being a member of the party at the time) seemingly didn't go down well with some .

                                                                                                                  Might not have the local party behind him and might affect transfers from running mate, could explain why he is 6/1 for what looks like it should be a FF seat.

                                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                                    Fine Gael line now at 60.5.

                                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                                      Originally posted by BigDeal View Post
                                                                                                                      Might be worth a gamble, do you anything about the FF party in the constituency?

                                                                                                                      I heard there was a lot of infighting and bad feeling in FF there, the decision was to run one candidate, the fact Curran was being added to the ticket despite not going forward for selection convention (and according to some not even being a member of the party at the time) seemingly didn't go down well with some .

                                                                                                                      Might not have the local party behind him and might affect transfers from running mate, could explain why he is 6/1 for what looks like it should be a FF seat.
                                                                                                                      Neither of the councillors that were involved in the arguments are involved in the GE.
                                                                                                                      Connaughton was a candidate in the by-election to replace Ming and he topped the poll on the first count but Ming's chosen one came back and won the seat.
                                                                                                                      'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick

                                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                                        ...
                                                                                                                        "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                                          Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                                                                          My Labour bet on here looks to be in the bag, absent a phenomenal vote-transfer achievement FG -> Lab. Not so sure about having the upside on FF though. They're absolutely shocking.
                                                                                                                          FF don't really have any good choices. Defining themselves in opposition to FG doesn't work for them. Defining themselves as potential partners for FG doesn't work either!
                                                                                                                          "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                                          Comment

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