Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Mammy told me not to come.

[Raoul Duke III]

Fwiw, I haven’t noticed a single ‘vote yes’ poster yet.

There's foetuses everywhere you look round my way

[dobby]

Fwiw, I haven’t noticed a single ‘vote yes’ poster yet.

Saw one yesterday at Sutton cross, it had been partially covered by a No poster which was double it's size

[Raoul Duke III]

Trust me, I've tried reading up on it and all Google seems to throw up is extreme views from either side. And I will be voting which is why I'm filling in the registration forms this evening.

See Keanes posts, that's the reason I asked in here instead of just blindly listening to gimps on the radio or whatever.

You're from Kerry, shouldn't you be taking your direction from the Healy-Reas?

[dobby]

You're from Kerry, shouldn't you be taking your direction from the Healy-Reas?

And Keane is from?....

[Keane]

And Keane is from?....

The most underrated town probably in the world.

[Kayroo]

Just one minor point of order* - I believe at the moment abortion is allowed when there is a threat to the woman's life rather than health, which is fairly important.

*I'm open to correction but I think this is accurate.

You are correct.

The 8th is the reason for this. It's equal respect for the life of the unborn and the life of the mother in our constitutional order so if the mother will suffer horrible debilitation or injury it doesn't matter. There needs to be a real threat to her life.

[Kayroo]

The most underrated town probably in the world.

Carlsberg?

[Keane]

There's foetuses everywhere you look round my way

So far as I know the Yes posters are only starting to go up this week. I think they are trying to time their run.

It's an interesting game theory situation as to whether the dead fetus posters will lose some shock value having been up for so long or whether positions will be hardened by the time the Yes message trundles into high gear.

You had a sort of amusing situation in a morbid way where around Limerick and Clare for the last three or four weeks you had pro-vegan/anti-meat posters interspersed with the pro-life ones with basically the same slogans and ideas on them. I'm genuinely wondering whether seeing a message from a crowd a lot of people seem to despise (i.e. crusty vegans) echoing the pro-life messages so strongly will give rise to any ambiguous thoughts!

[jack90210]

So far as I know the Yes posters are only starting to go up this week. I think they are trying to time their run.

It's an interesting game theory situation as to whether the dead fetus posters will lose some shock value having been up for so long or whether positions will be hardened by the time the Yes message trundles into high gear.

You had a sort of amusing situation in a morbid way where around Limerick and Clare for the last three or four weeks you had pro-vegan/anti-meat posters interspersed with the pro-life ones with basically the same slogans and ideas on them. I'm genuinely wondering whether seeing a message from a crowd a lot of people seem to despise (i.e. crusty vegans) echoing the pro-life messages so strongly will give rise to any ambiguous thoughts!

Surely getting the prime real estate is the nut strategy.

[Denny Crane]

That's usually the case, but it's not a GE, far less posters going up. Feel blessed to have space outside my place being used by some rare yes posters, wouldn't fancy having to look at foetuses for a few weeks.

[Guest]

Surely getting the prime real estate is the nut strategy.

I think the campaign/political party etc that has the best placed posters is becoming less relevant.
The amount of traction that can be gained via other mediums I'm sure makes the differences in poster location pretty negligible.
It's about who has the most salient message at the right time across multiple platforms for an issue such as this.

[Theresa]

How can you not understand what you are voting for?

Kerry ABU

Assholes!

Dobby, in his own way, admitting he needs some reasoned opinions from the people here and this is what you give him.

Cunts is all ye are.

[Keane]

Surely getting the prime real estate is the nut strategy.

Hadn't even considered that there would be better and worse poles actually, and spots on the poles of course. It's a factor alright I guess.

[Theresa]

Hadn't even considered that there would be better and worse poles actually, and spots on the poles of course. It's a factor alright I guess.

Each side should hire a supermarket consultant/marketer.

[Ed]

Cycling to work along the N11 every day, so many foetuses

[jack90210]

I think the campaign/political party etc that has the best placed posters is becoming less relevant.
The amount of traction that can be gained via other mediums I'm sure makes the differences in poster location pretty negligible.
It's about who has the most salient message at the right time across multiple platforms for an issue such as this.

Maybe for a referendum it is slightly less relevant because there's only two sides nationally (that been said I would still say seeing the posters makes it real to people and a lot of the middle ground actually start seriously thinking about it for the first time) but for GE/local elections I would still say its the way the vast majority of average non-politically engaged people work out whose even on the ballot.

[Dice75]

24 weeks is the limit in the UK. Some of those on the pro-abortion side have already said they will begin campaigning to extend the limit to 24 weeks once they get 12 weeks passed.

Ah right. Havent payed much attention yet as away on hols prior. Will read up the week before and decide.

[6starpool]

My understanding on each of your questions above.

While most of that is correct, most of the testing for things like Downs Syndrome is done after 12 weeks I'm pretty sire, so your point on that one wouldn't translate into reality here because of the proposed 12 week cut off for things like that, whereas in lots of other countries the cut off is 24 weeks.

Obviously that 12 week limit can be changed upwards which would make abortion for those reasons more likely, but I don't think it is likely in the medium term anyhow.

When my wife was pregnant, we considered having that test but didn't. If we had gone for the reliable test it would have been with the intention of aborting in the case of something like that, but we both agreed quickly that while it would be initially devastating, we would play the hand we were dealt..

Personally I don't think aborting a child because it has Downs (or similar) is any worse than aborting the child because they just didn't want a child. Once I was in the situation, it became apparent that I was not personally in favour of abortion in my life, but that doesn't mean I don't want others to be able to choose for themselves.

[jack90210]

While most of that is correct, most of the testing for things like Downs Syndrome is done after 12 weeks I'm pretty sire, so your point on that one wouldn't translate into reality here because of the proposed 12 week cut off for things like that, whereas in lots of other countries the cut off is 24 weeks.

That is incorrect most of the other European countries have 12 weeks on demand with medical reasons for more than 12, which is what is been proposed here. These are the same countries with the very high Downs Syndrome abortion rates. I take your point that test isn't 100% accurate before 12 weeks but it is accurate enough for the stats to be very high in comparable situations.

[Dice75]

Have paid little or no attention to this thus far but suppose i should start. Keane's posts there are a good starting point but still leave you completely undecided. Hopefully the debate continues. Im of the age where it wont affect me directly (fook me fingers crossed) but i have a boy and a girl.

My initial gut reaction is obv that abortions are gonna increase x-fold (local v travel) and i suppose as a man if you are younger you are powerless if it happens to you. I guess i need to read the smallprint before commenting properly.

Signed.

Average Irish person?


PS just to say when we found out we were having twins at an older age, even older than 5Star despite his hairline, we did the same as him.

[Raoul Duke III]

That is incorrect most of the other European countries have 12 weeks on demand with medical reasons for more than 12, which is what is been proposed here. These are the same countries with the very high Downs Syndrome abortion rates. I take your point that test isn't 100% accurate before 12 weeks but it is accurate enough for the stats to be very high in comparable situations.

12 weeks does indeed seem to be the norm (was a bit surprised but I guess the UK - for obvious reasons - is the one that we tend to be aware of).

[Keane]

@Jack for what it's worth I'm sorry for saying I didn't think you were a serious poster a few weeks ago. From my vantage when you took flack that time you reacted to it in a genuine way which I'm sure is broadly appreciated.

I hope there are no hard feelings.

[jack90210]

@Jack for what it's worth I'm sorry for saying I didn't think you were a serious poster a few weeks ago. From my vantage when you took flack that time you reacted to it in a genuine way which I'm sure is broadly appreciated.

I hope there are no hard feelings.

None at all, appreciate the post.

[CHDad]

Assholes!

Dobby, in his own way, admitting he needs some reasoned opinions from the people here and this is what you give him.

Cunts is all ye are.

You're familiar with my posts aren't ya?

[Lazare]

My understanding on each of your questions above.

Just on your point re it being possible to abort in cases of disability or downs etc.

That's not true. It's currently not possible to detect the vast majority of these issues pre 12 weeks.

Admittedly diagnostic technology could well improve to make it possible, but it's not currently.

That's important for people to note because it's one of the No side's central arguments.

[jack90210]

Just on your point re it being possible to abort in cases of disability or downs etc.

That's not true. It's currently not possible to detect the vast majority of these issues pre 12 weeks.

Admittedly diagnostic technology could well improve to make it possible, but it's not currently.

That's important for people to note because it's one of the No side's central arguments.

It is possible to do the test, its just that its accuracy improves later in the pregnancy.

The HSE say it is usually done between 11-13 weeks. https://www.hse.ie/eng/health/az/d/d...-syndrome.html

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[Guest]

Dropped the €75 hanging around in the Irish bank account on the amendment being retained. 7/2 odds seem far too good for whats probably going to be a very close race. Obv funking to lose, but those are mad odds.

I think the same. This place generally offers a pretty decent litmus test of the general feel of what way the majority of people may feel.
Athough I think its a pretty clear choice, there certainly seems to be alot more people with differing opinions and those who are unsure.
I'm probably not going to bet but 7/2 looked big to me too.

[6starpool]

It is possible to do the test, its just that its accuracy improves later in the pregnancy.

The HSE say it is usually done between 11-13 weeks. https://www.hse.ie/eng/health/az/d/d...-syndrome.html

If they do the test at 11 weeks there is almost no chance of getting the results back and then arranging and having an abortion before 12 weeks. I'd be stunned if that would all happen within a week in the Irish health system.

There will probably be a very Irish solution of a 16 week waiting time for an abortion which makes the whole thing moot.

[jack90210]

If they do the test at 11 weeks there is almost no chance of getting the results back and then arranging and having an abortion before 12 weeks. I'd be stunned if that would all happen within a week in the Irish health system.

There will probably be a very Irish solution of a 16 week waiting time for an abortion which makes the whole thing moot.

Maybe but everything gets better faster more efficient eventually. And as I said if the stats are so high in other countries I don't see why we would be any different over the passage of time.

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[Keane]

If they do the test at 11 weeks there is almost no chance of getting the results back and then arranging and having an abortion before 12 weeks. I'd be stunned if that would all happen within a week in the Irish health system.

There will probably be a very Irish solution of a 16 week waiting time for an abortion which makes the whole thing moot.

It's still a bit of a nonsense argument as anyone who is that set against having the baby will beat the well worn path to England. It's an unhappy fact but we're honestly only arguing over whether or not to include a boat and a lack of aftercare in our reality.

[Wombatman]

My handier than aeropress.

[jack90210]

It's still a bit of a nonsense argument as anyone who is that set against having the baby will beat the well worn path to England. It's an unhappy fact but we're honestly only arguing over whether or not to include a boat and a lack of aftercare in our reality.

I understand that perspective but there is tonnes of things people do that we don't make legal.

[Dice75]

s

It could absolutely affect you. If your daughter when she is older was to find out she was both pregnant and has some form of early stage cancer, then they are obliged to let the cancer progress in your daughter so as not to affect the baby as its not immediately pressing to her life. So she ends up giving birth and maybe having to have stage 2, stage 3, or worse cancer treated instead.

This btw actually happens today in Ireland, according to a consultant who specialises in high risk pregnancies. She is directly involving in treating patients like this in Ireland. Thats what retaining the amendment does. Your vote is for the younger people you can vote on behalf of so that they can get proper healthcare when they grow up.

Ah here FFS. Do you think i am stupid. Of course i know it IS going to affect me (indirectly but i would kill for my 2yo girl).

I just havent read the whole lot yet.

[Guest]

For what it's worth also, I can totally get with the position that abortion is morally wrong and woman should be prevented from having them in order to protect the growing human inside them. I don't agree with it at all but at least it's internally consistent.

The people who throw fire bombs at abortion clinics in the States wouldn't be sitting around holding their noses as thousands of women travel to England and elsewhere for abortions, they would be picketing the ports, openly campaigning to overturn the X Case and the POLDP bills etc.

It's just the Irish flavour of pro-life that doesn't care whether or not abortions are going on as long as they are going on somewhere else that is a position of real moral cowardice.

On this, a mate used to occasionally drive "the abortion bus" from Limerick/Cork, said it was grim!

He said the girls were broken hearted coming home and clearly looked scared!

I don't understand how anyone who is campaigning on a pro-life agenda is not pushing for every woman who has ever left the country for an abortion to be charged. Rather than having some weird it's baby murder if done within our borders but not if they leave and come back 24 hours later attitude

It's nothing to do with right or wrong with a lot of them it's we don't want to see it happen here.

It really is a horrible nothing at the moment, at least if voted yes it can be controlled within the state

In an ideal world abortion doesn't exist, but it does exist and girls leaving home in the dark with the hood up and tears in their eyes to get a ferry where everyone involved knows what's happening but looks away, is not how a young republic should treat it's children!

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[jack90210]

On this, a mate used to occasionally drive "the abortion bus" from Limerick/Cork, said it was grim!

He said the girls were broken hearted coming home and clearly looked scared!

I don't understand how anyone who is campaigning on a pro-life agenda is not pushing for every woman who has ever left the country for an abortion to be charged. Rather than having some weird it's baby murder if done within our borders but not if they leave and come back 24 hours later attitude

It's nothing to do with right or wrong with a lot of them it's we don't want to see it happen here.

It really is a horrible nothing at the moment, at least if voted yes it can be controlled within the state

In an ideal world abortion doesn't exist, but it does exist and girls leaving home in the dark with the hood up and tears in their eyes to get a ferry where everyone involved knows what's happening but looks away, is not how a young republic should treat it's children!

There's a lot of obvious rebuttals to that but I shall leave there for the evening on this topic for me.

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[Denny Crane]

Yes has a had a stable 30% lead

[Keane]

I understand that perspective but there is tonnes of things people do that we don't make legal.

I can think of drugs, prostitution and euthanasia off the top of my head that would seem to be on the same sort of 'moral argument' sort of lines. I'm interested to hear of other things you have in mind.

In the case of drugs I think it's almost inarguable that legalisation is better for everyone at this stage. Prostitution I haven't really thought enough about to have a strong position but would naturally guess would be better regulated. Euthanasia I can understand the argument around vulnerable elderly being pressured but would still think it's a gimme that it ought to be liberalised to some extent in certain circumstances.

There's some high minded understandable desire to legislate for an ideal world but I really think when the rubber meets the road legislating for real life is a much better approach.

[Keane]

Yes has a had a stable 30% lead

Do you think the current odds are too short on yes or about right? The 'specials' markets were never my forte!

[Wombatman]

For what it's worth also, I can totally get with the position that abortion is morally wrong and woman should be prevented from having them in order to protect the growing human inside them. I don't agree with it at all but at least it's internally consistent.

I don't agree that it is logically consistent. Society should have no say until the baby can survive outside the womb. The limit for this is about 21 weeks and that is pushing it. Up until this point the decision should be totally with the mother, as the entity is wholly dependent on her. Making abortion, prior to this limit, illegal is logically harking back to a time when suicide was a crime.

Nobody will be forced to do anything they don't want to do (dispute some of the crazier pro-life arguments) by making it legal. But people, like me and the thousands who travel each year with no continuity of care, who morally have no issues or have overcome their issues, with aborting before 12 weeks, even in the case of downs, will be shackled by other peoples values.

The reason so many downs abortions happen in other countries is that regular people feel it is the right thing to do given their circumstances.

How would people feel if meat was outlawed because the majority viewed the slaughter of animals it to be morally wrong?

[Keane]

There's a lot of obvious rebuttals to that but I shall leave there for the evening on this topic for me.

I for one am genuinely interested in hearing them if you get a chance later.

[MrsFlushdraw]

But for people like me that don't understand what I'm voting for, it'll turn me towards a yes vote, on the other hand all this shite of its my body from the yes side is tipping me to vote no.

To sum up, haven't a clue what we're supposed to vote on and both sides seem like cunce

If you read these real life stories you will see that it is not just a clean cut pro/anti abortion thing for a lot of people. Some of these stories would ter the heart out of you and it is horrible what some woman have gone through.

It is for THESE woman that I think things have to change. I would hate to see abortion used as a lazy contraceptive. But I would hope my girls would have a choice and not go through anything that these people have experienced.

https://www.facebook.com/RepealTheEighth/

The group is called In Her Shoes and it is real lie stories of things that happened to them

As for the tests for DS etc, I refused them each time as I am Rhesus negative and therefore the amniocentesis test they do would have endangered my babies and since I said I wouldn't have aborted if the baby was DS anyway it didn't seem logical to get the test in the first place.

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[Keane]

I don't agree that it is logically consistent. Society should have no say until the baby can survive outside the womb. The limit for this is about 21 weeks and that is pushing it. Up until this point the decision should be totally with the mother, as the entity is wholly dependent on her. Making abortion, prior to this limit, illegal is logically harking back to a time when suicide was a crime.

Nobody will be forced to do anything they don't want to do (dispute some of the crazier pro-life arguments) by making it legal. But people, like me and the thousands who travel each year with no continuity of care, who morally have no issues or have overcome their issues, with aborting before 12 weeks, even in the case of downs, will be shackled by other peoples values.

The reason so many downs abortions happen in other countries is that regular people feel it is the right thing to do given their circumstances.

How would people feel if meat was outlawed because the majority viewed the slaughter of animals it to be morally wrong?

I think there's a logically defensible position that the unborn have a right to life that trumps the woman's right to not be pregnant. The important point I was trying to get at is that it's totally inconsistent with being complicit with the exporting of abortion and not wanting people banned from doing it or being jailed for doing it.

I can think of a good few situations where that pro-life right to life argument falls apart when it's confronted with real everyday life but I do think it's a coherent position to hold. Basically if you happen to have a particular world view I think you're morally obligated to oppose abortion in nearly every situation.

Having said that it's obviously not a position I agree with and don't want particularly to try and defend! My position is also that it's nobody's place to say what goes on in a woman's body bar her own.

On a tangent I do think most of us are on the wrong side of history when it comes to killing animals for food, myself included!

[6starpool]

I would make the general point that effective campaigning would have made that point first on every parents lips in favour of repealing - do you want your kids to grow up in a society where they won't get the healthcare they need because of this amendment? The fact that someone reasonably well-informed like Dice has to read up on it, means that message is clearly not coming across as the main message for parents from the yes campaign. Generally a campaign that relies on people reading up on stuff isn't going to be successful, as no-one ever actually reads up on these things.

I'd say the most thought that most people have put into it is one of:

- I don't like abortion, I don't want anyone to do it because I don't like it/god doesn't like it (he was ok with asking people to sacrifice their kids in the bible though)
- It's not my business, let them choose themselves

It is probably that simple for most people and I doubt most people think much past that.

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[rounders123]

Hitch any fallout on the spic and num2 incident?.

[Wombatman]

I think there's a logically defensible position that the unborn have a right to life that trumps the woman's right to not be pregnant.

Lay it on us then.

[dobby]

If you read these real life stories you will see that it is not just a clean cut pro/anti abortion thing for a lot of people. Some of these stories would ter the heart out of you and it is horrible what some woman have gone through.

It is for THESE woman that I think things have to change. I would hate to see abortion used as a lazy contraceptive. But I would hope my girls would have a choice and not go through anything that these people have experienced.

https://www.facebook.com/RepealTheEighth/

The group is called In Her Shoes and it is real lie stories of things that happened to them

As for the tests for DS etc, I refused them each time as I am Rhesus negative and therefore the amniocentesis test they do would have endangered my babies and since I said I wouldn't have aborted if the baby was DS anyway it didn't seem logical to get the test in the first place.

I actually came across that Facebook page earlier while I was looking for info and after reading a few it left me with more questions than answers and another few are just rants with no clear message so I'll be avoiding it.

[Guest]

What's with the persistence of the 'getting the boat' iconography? Pretty sure must of them would fly these days.

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[ComradeCollie]

What's with the persistence of the 'getting the boat' iconography? Pretty sure must of them would fly these days.

[Strewelpeter]

That is incorrect most of the other European countries have 12 weeks on demand with medical reasons for more than 12, which is what is been proposed here.

So the proposed legislation will specify Downs as a medical reason for abortion?

[Denny Crane]

Do you think the current odds are too short on yes or about right? The 'specials' markets were never my forte!

Haven't looked at it in any depth but yes is about 1/100 right now if those polls are in any way accurate.

[MrsFlushdraw]

I actually came across that Facebook page earlier while I was looking for info and after reading a few it left me with more questions than answers and another few are just rants with no clear message so I'll be avoiding it.

I think the messages are pretty clear, I didn't see any that were rants. Just horrific/tragic stories.

But it is the most accurate way to see the effects of not allowing woman any choice at all but to travel, which is what most these stories show.

[Denny Crane]

I'd say that voting machine that Ganley has built is a lot more effective than it is given credit for in polls and we'll start to see that as we approach the end weeks. I remember back in 2008 them plastering boards.ie with No to Lisbon image ads, at a time when no politician in Ireland was doing digital marketing. They're presumably vastly more sophisticated operation now - using eircodes + facebook profiles + voting register to create clusters of households and directly targetting these microclusters personally with messages targeted towards their likely issues. The yes side is still working out how to print paper posters, what type of micro-message targetting would you say they are engaged in? It's only a horrible suspicion is all though.

John Mcguirk and the lads behind Libertas? Who managed to 1/600 candidates elected? I'd be shocked.