Football-betting thread

[HappyasLarry]

Blackburn @ evens = money in the bank! new manager or whatever, don't turn that price down....

[The Situation]

Couple of lays for you kids today.

First is very much weather permitting but is still officially on. Inverness are going to Hearts defending a 13 month away unbeaten streak, pretty awesome for a team like them, includes draws at Ibrox and Parkhead. They've been pretty much odds on to lose all away games this year but still haven't. The run will end sometime but I'm going keep riding the gravy train until they do. Lay Hearts at 1.76

Other one I could be throwing my money away but Barca at 1.3 away to Espanyol looks a little short to me. Espanyol have won all seven home games this season, but on the flip side Barca have won all their away games. I'm sure if Barca turn up on the top of their game they'll sweep them aside but it's a local derby and I have a hunch it's going to be tight.

[Wesley Harms]

Blackburn @ evens = money in the bank! new manager or whatever, don't turn that price down....

Like this bet, also Sunderland @ 11/10 is a good wager

[Flushdraw]

Blackburn @ evens = money in the bank! new manager or whatever, don't turn that price down....

Yep have that one backed. Also think Spurs are big @ 4/6 away to Blackpool

Banker of the day though is AC Milan 4/5 home to Roma unless i'm missing something

[The Situation]

Yep have that one backed. Also think Spurs are big @ 4/6 away to Blackpool

Banker of the day though is AC Milan 4/5 home to Roma unless i'm missing something

Chances of that Blackpool game being played is very slim. Spurs have only won 1 game outside London this season in all comps so I'd stay away.

Milan should win that game easily, playing some class football of late since they've changed to there 4-3-1-2 system, scoring plenty and concereding very little. Roma have been pretty inconsistant but handy on their day. I tend to never go in much on teams I support as bias tends to haze my judgement, but I certainly wouldn't talk you out of lumping on.

[The Situation]

Couple of lays for you kids today.

First is very much weather permitting but is still officially on. Inverness are going to Hearts defending a 13 month away unbeaten streak, pretty awesome for a team like them, includes draws at Ibrox and Parkhead. They've been pretty much odds on to lose all away games this year but still haven't. The run will end sometime but I'm going keep riding the gravy train until they do. Lay Hearts at 1.76

Other one I could be throwing my money away but Barca at 1.3 away to Espanyol looks a little short to me. Espanyol have won all seven home games this season, but on the flip side Barca have won all their away games. I'm sure if Barca turn up on the top of their game they'll sweep them aside but it's a local derby and I have a hunch it's going to be tight.

Inverness pick up another creditable away draw and the unbeaten away run goes on

I've layed Barca two times two many this season. Clearly on another planet, there wont be a third time

On Palermo (2.3) today and Napoli-1(evs)vs lecce

[Flushdraw]

Milan pffffft

[The Situation]

Milan pffffft

Milan should win that game easily, playing some class football of late since they've changed to there 4-3-1-2 system, scoring plenty and concereding very little. Roma have been pretty inconsistant but handy on their day. I tend to never go in much on teams I support as bias tends to haze my judgement, but I certainly wouldn't talk you out of lumping on.

This! You seem to be on a horrible cooler atm, hope your luck changes

[The Situation]

Need to recoup some money after yesterdays loses. City are ludicrously short tonight. Everton have had a good record in this fixture in recent years, winning 5 of the last 6 meetings, and as I've said before thier game seems to suit playing against these bigger teams. Arteta is suspended but has been playing poorly this year anyway but Rodwell is back which is a bonus. It's going to be sliced turkey for Christmas if City win this one

[Percy007]

Gonna have a bet on Tevez to score and be booked at 9/1(PP), to make watching it more interesting.

[KevIRL]

Gonna have a bet on Tevez to score and be booked at 9/1(PP), to make watching it more interesting.

Tevez to score 2 or more @ 7/1 also worth a shot.

[Wesley Harms]

City will win this comfortably, 1.81 tremendous value

[Straddle]

Man City to have more corners @ 1.44

[Percy007]

Tevez to score 2 or more @ 7/1 also worth a shot.

Not really a fixture that produces a lot of goals :

24-03-10 EPL Man City 0 - 2 Everton
16-01-10 EPL Everton 2 - 0 Man City
25-04-09 EPL Everton 1 - 2 Man City
13-12-08 EPL Man City 0 - 1 Everton
26-02-08 EPL Man City 0 - 2 Everton

12-01-08 EPL Everton 1 - 0 Man City

So after putting this up get on the goalfest tonight

[The Situation]

Can't believe I'm the only one whose opposed City tonight, another major negative as if lolcity isn't enough is the added pressure of if they win they'll go top of the table, this will definitely be playing on their minds.

[Percy007]

Keep Flushdraw away from backing City tonight


Kidding

[TheProfitablePunter]

Weekend Selection: St Etienne to beat Arles @ 1.4

In a weekend where there will be many a coupon buster the banker pick has to be St Etienne even considering their poor run in the last few games.


St Etienne has played 8 France Ligue 1 matches this season on Stade Geoffroy Guichard. On home ground St Etienne has won 3, drawn 4 and lost 1 matches. This ranks Les Pantheres (The Panthers) 11th in home team performance in the France Ligue 1.

Arles has played 8 France Ligue 1 matches this season away from home. On away ground Arles has won 0, drawn 2 and lost 6 matches. This ranks Les Lions (The Lions) 20th in away team performance in the France Ligue 1.

Prediction: 2-0

Result: St Etienne 2-0









Selection: Bordeaux to beat Lens @ 1.57

The France Ligue 1 football match between Bordeaux (10th) and Lens (19th) kicks off on 22 December 2010. Bordeaux has played 9 France Ligue 1 matches this season at home. On home ground Bordeaux has won 3, drawn 4 and lost 2 matches. This ranks Bordeaux 14th in home team performance in the France Ligue 1.

Lens has played 8 France Ligue 1 matches this season away from home. On away ground Lens has won 1, drawn 3 and lost 4 matches. This ranks Lens 16th in away team performance in the France Ligue 1.

Prediction: Bordeaux 2-1

[Straddle]

What is the opinion of the "both teams to score" market?


Games on the 28th that look good for this are:


Tottenham v Newcastle
West Ham v Everton
Doncaster v Ipswich
Millwall v Leicester

[TommyGunne]

What is the opinion of the "both teams to score" market?


Games on the 28th that look good for this are:


Tottenham v Newcastle
West Ham v Everton
Doncaster v Ipswich
Millwall v Leicester

Have you looked into poisson modelling?

[Percy007]

Stoke at home to a dire Fulham, this has got to be max bet material @ 5/6 (pp).

Thats just too good a price to pass up, anyone else think Stoke overpriced here?

[The Situation]

Stoke at home to a dire Fulham, this has got to be max bet material @ 5/6 (pp).

Thats just too good a price to pass up, anyone else think Stoke overpriced here?

Fulham have drawn more away than they've lost which explains the price. They never seem to win away so if I was getting involved I'd waaay prefer to be a fulham layer than a Stoke backer.

Chelsea look short considering their awful recent form and the fact Bolton have a day and a bit extra rest. Either lay Chelsea or the 9/1 Bolton draw no bet on Boyles looks meaty...

[Aya14]

Passed by a PP shop an hour ago there was a special on United to win to nil @ 7/4

Very tempted to do this. 3 of the last 4 meetings have finished 1-0 Utd.
Also can't see where the brummie goals will come from.

Max bet was 200 afaik, but theres PP shops everywhere so you could easily get around to a few.

[Aya14]

Passed by a PP shop an hour ago there was a special on United to win to nil @ 7/4

Very tempted to do this. 3 of the last 4 meetings have finished 1-0 Utd.
Also can't see where the brummie goals will come from.

Max bet was 200 afaik, but theres PP shops everywhere so you could easily get around to a few.

Boo I'd traded out for all square but still booooo.

[Percy007]

I know the game is not until Sunday but im taking it now incase the price disappears

Falkirk at home to Stirling Albion due to this story http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/foot...on/9331394.stm


Falkirk -1 evens with PP

[Percy007]

Falkirk win 4-2

[Opr]

Falkirk win 4-2

tytytytytytytyty

Opr

[Guest]

J Spector is available at 25/1 on bet365 *20/1 (on PP) in running for the first goal

He is priced as a defender but West Ham said he is playing in the hole behind the front man

worth a dirty tenner imo

**bollix shoulda scored
fcukin defender playing in the hole /

[The C Kid]

Blackpool price tomorrow? Thoughts.

[Solskjaer]

Blackpool price tomorrow? Thoughts.

Stevie g playing? Blackpool love to go for it, leave gaps, Torres to score a couple

high score draw for some fun ( i hope)

[eagle eye]

Blackpool 3/1ish and draw about 11/4 on Betfair. I think its best to stay away from it, you just don't know what way Liverpool will line up or if there will be an improvement or not.

[Raheny Red]

Blackpool are dire at home, Liverpool are dire also - especially at away from home. However, I was impressed with their spirited performance with 10 men against United and @ evens they are heading into my mug double for tonight. I'm on Liverpool and Arsenal -1.5

[Semibluff]

I make liverpool just over half a goal favourites, which would make them slightly odds on
Then assessing team news - torres awol (simular to drog, just isnt the same player anymore)
Gerrard suspended
J cole, conchesky, johnson all possibly out too (possibly for the best? )

You would have to adjust liverpool to 11/10 or so, if not slightly bigger

Market seems about right

[The C Kid]

Interesting article.

http://betoftheweek.net/2011/01/sweet-fa/

[The Situation]

It's a game I'd rather get involved in running if I was getting on. Very much dependent on how well Liverpool press Blackpool when they have the ball imo. B'pool have one of the highest passes made(8670)/completion rates(76%) in the premier league this season. In games where they've deviated below their average pass completed rate they've tended to struggle. Their two lowest pass % this year have been against Blackburn and Bolton, teams that are renowned for playing tough pressing football, they lost against Blackburn 2-0 and picked up a point against Bolton who should have probably won. They don't seem to have much of a plan B when their passing breaks down, probably something that will come with more premier league experience if they hopefully stay up, but it's impressive what Holloway is doing their and more so because of the way he's doing it.

[The C Kid]

It's a game I'd rather get involved in running if I was getting on. Very much dependent on how well Liverpool press Blackpool when they have the ball imo. B'pool have one of the highest passes made(8670)/completion rates(76%) in the premier league this season. In games where they've deviated below their average pass completed rate they've tended to struggle. Their two lowest pass % this year have been against Blackburn and Bolton, teams that are renowned for playing tough pressing football, they lost against Blackburn 2-0 and picked up a point against Bolton who should have probably won. They don't seem to have much of a plan B when their passing breaks down, probably something that will come with more premier league experience if they hopefully stay up, but it's impressive what Holloway is doing their and more so because of the way he's doing it.

Great post. Liverpool away from home under Hodgson would have been the kind of team that would suit Blackpool very well imo. I had planned to have a decent bet, but obv the manager change was a spanner in the works.

Dalglish has always been cautious in my mind and his sides have always pressed and been combative. Semi-interesting piece here, http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/b...2011-liverpool. I think it will be very interesting to see how he approaches tonight.

Still think Blackpool were slightly big at 4.3, and took a little at 4.3-4.2.

How do you take into account the new manager factor etc, Semibluff? I've been trying to look up stats for a theory i have but it's proving difficult, but is there any possible "bounce" factor for Liverpool after the weekend? Or will the new manager, good-feeling carryover? How do you weight the "Dalglish factor"?

[Wesley Harms]

Everyone should pick up the days wages today on China in the Asia cup vs Qatar.

China are 8/5 and should be odds on imo.

For anyone who knows anything about soccer, sure Qatar were the whipping boys in the original FIFA

Banker imo

[The C Kid]

Liverpool team from a source i'd consider semi-reliable.

Pepe, Kelly, Wilson, Skrtel, Agger, Lucas, Meireles, Johnson, Maxi, Kuyt, Torres.

[The Situation]

Great post. Liverpool away from home under Hodgson would have been the kind of team that would suit Blackpool very well imo. I had planned to have a decent bet, but obv the manager change was a spanner in the works.

Dalglish has always been cautious in my mind and his sides have always pressed and been combative. Semi-interesting piece here, http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/b...2011-liverpool. I think it will be very interesting to see how he approaches tonight.

Still think Blackpool were slightly big at 4.3, and took a little at 4.3-4.2.

How do you take into account the new manager factor etc, Semibluff? I've been trying to look up stats for a theory i have but it's proving difficult, but is there any possible "bounce" factor for Liverpool after the weekend? Or will the
new manager, good-feeling carryover? How do you weight the "Dalglish factor"?

Very tough to tell what sort of reaction they'll have to the new manager/loss at the weekend, really couldn't predict it with any degree of confidence which is part of the reason I'm not getting on beforehand. I do think the loss of Gereard is a positive for L'pool though, they've a more natural shape without him imo.

[Solskjaer]

Seriously LOL. Gerard is their drive. I'm surprised his suspension kicked in quite so early. Thought it was one game and then suspension. That Liverpool team will not win tonight, rudderless without Gerrard.
People talking them up because they contained a United team moving in 2nd-3rd gear. The Dalglish factor won't hide the fact that they are simply not good enough. They are 12th for a reason (lol blaming Hogdson)
I'm going score draw for my few bobs, but for big investors. I'd deffo lay Liverpool. Mid table battle anything can happen. 3-3 for the big score draw (fewer bobs- love to see the Blacks score the 4th in Injury time)

[The C Kid]

28/1 Glen Johnson FGS, 9/1 anytime.

[Semibluff]

Liverpool team from a source i'd consider semi-reliable.

Pepe, Kelly, Wilson, Skrtel, Agger, Lucas, Meireles, Johnson, Maxi, Kuyt, Torres.

Its very hard to know how much to weigh to any external influence. For example, Andy carroll is worth .2 of a goal to newcastle (imo)

Steven gerrard ---> Torres, Reina is how id see the hierarchy in liverpool, with kuyt in behind these three.

Your def missing the capt, torres is as good as missing*

Should you allow for more considering this? If so, its now verging on a bet for liverpool

* to continue on the missing player. Chelsea have say a goal rating of .94 with a fully fit team. Yet, you cant allow them hold this rating week in week out, as you would be making them a bet everyweek if so. The amount of goals that run through Drogba up front is phenomenal. Between assists, goals and general style of play (holding up balls as they allow fat frank get forward) he is integral.
So you now have to over compensate for drogba's form and perhaps bring chelsea down to .8 of a goal rating, which has you in line with the market.

Using the above ^ - how important is Torres. And were will the goals come without him?

Personally as much as your stats prove that blackpool are a passing team and like to play football, i think they are found out when playing the bigger teams and are susceptible to flood gates opening. Their results against the top 4 prove this, as do the stats behind the games. Id always struggle to take them in games versus open footballing teams who are very capable of shutting down proper footballing teams week in week out in europe, never mind the over performing blackpool (not to take away from the success of what hollaway has done)

Regarding new managers, I normally would increase the team ratings slightly on this, or should i say id imagine teams will play closer to their optimum rating and ability as motivational reasons should be high. If you saw liverpool over perform the weekend (definitely considering recent performances), you will see this to be true.

If a team is trying its best for a manager who gets sacked unfairly, perhaps due to injuries to key players, id be careful not to give any more weight to a new manager here as they were at their peak already. Sometimes the unrest created may actually be a negative factor. With the Pardew debacle i down graded newcastle slightly for their first game under him

So although with liverpool players missing perhaps making it a bet, im arguing that blackpool wont be allowed play their expansive football. Buoyed by a decent performance last week the liverpool players may find a performance to match their pay cheques.
I'll be leaving it myself

[Semibluff]

meant to add - an obvious answer to your negativity of liverpool and Kennys eagerness to sure up the team is johnson on the right. confirming this is the unders line moving from 2.24 to a low of 1.9


what site do you use to get your quickest late fitness tests?

[Opr]

28/1 Glen Johnson FGS, 9/1 anytime.

Think this is worth a few quid as he is rumoured to be playing on the wing with Kelly at LB. Still some doubts around whether he is going to be available or not as his wife still hasn't had the baby.

Opr

[The Situation]

Seriously LOL. Gerard is their drive. I'm surprised his suspension kicked in quite so early. Thought it was one game and then suspension. That Liverpool team will not win tonight, rudderless without Gerrard.

You're wrong. Liverpool have a better win % without Stevie G over a very large sample since 2000. Not saying he's a bad player but he's very specialist, can't play in an orthodox 4-4-2 imo, Rafa played him in that system for over 3 years which didnt suit him or Alonso. The signing of Mascherano got the best out of both of them, with Gerrard playing in the advanced role behind the front man. It's no coincidence that this was liverpool's and Gerrards most successful spell in his career. This current team doesn't have the players to play that system anymore rendering Gerrard less useful.

[Keane]

Is that game on TV tonight?

[Solskjaer]

You're wrong. Liverpool have a better win % without Stevie G over a very large sample since 2000. Not saying he's a bad player but he's very specialist, can't play in an orthodox 4-4-2 imo, Rafa played him in that system for over 3 years which didnt suit him or Alonso. The signing of Mascherano got the best out of both of them, with Gerrard playing in the advanced role behind the front man. It's no coincidence that this was liverpool's and Gerrards most successful spell in his career. This current team doesn't have the players to play that system anymore rendering Gerrard less useful.

in ratios have to be weighed against magnitude. For example against a lesser team the better players might be rested and against the better teams it might be harder to get a result. The fact of the matter is, any Liverpool achievement in the years you mention have been driven by Gerrard. He is a huge loss when missing. Anyone thinks different is suffering from some kind of dilusion brought on by reading crappy meaningless stats instead of watching the fecking game.

[Keane]

in ratios have to be weighed against magnitude. For example against a lesser team the better players might be rested and against the better teams it might be harder to get a result. The fact of the matter is, any Liverpool achievement in the years you mention have been driven by Gerrard. He is a huge loss when missing. Anyone thinks different is suffering from some kind of dilusion brought on by reading crappy meaningless stats instead of watching the fecking game.

This can be easily countered by saying anyone with your opinion is being blinded by anecdotal evidence, Andy Gray voodoo and other emotional responses.

Statistics are often used inappropriately in soccer discussions to further one view or another, but in this case the sample size makes the argument pretty compelling.

It's certainly not enough to just dismiss it as delusional, it seems fairly well grounded IMO.

[The Situation]

in ratios have to be weighed against magnitude. For example against a lesser team the better players might be rested and against the better teams it might be harder to get a result.

On the contrary in fact. He's tended to miss a lot of the big games over the years, including their last couple of victories against Man United. Some stats can be misleading but that one is pretty informative and it's over an neccessarily large sized sample thus making it hard to argue a case against it.

You seem to have far too simplistic view on football, case and point your recent views on Modric, just because he isn't banging in goals doesn't diminish his huge importance to the side, and if you don't see what he adds to the team it's probably not worth my while arguing with you. Alonso was a far more important cog in the liverpool team over the years then Gerrard is/was.

[Solskjaer]

Simplistic view on football , of course I do. Mr Bill Shankly will tell you that's exactly the view to take.
You guys overthink the game. Check out my predictions, I'm never far off the mark.

And Keane, Situation said I was WRONG. I merely alluded to his dilusion. :-)

PS. I merely said Moderate was overrated. I never said he wasn't a good footballer.
He does choke in front of goal though.

Now as this is a gambling thread I'll reiterate. Lay Liverpool tonight.

[Opr]

28/1 Glen Johnson FGS, 9/1 anytime.

Coral just moved this to 14/1 and 9/2

Opr

[japeye]

Everyone should pick up the days wages today on China in the Asia cup vs Qatar.

China are 8/5 and should be odds on imo.

For anyone who knows anything about soccer, sure Qatar were the whipping boys in the original FIFA

Banker imo

that looks a nice bit bet!!

as 4 liverpool i think ill be staying away from that 1, anything could happen.

[Guest]

Dalglish has always been cautious in my mind and his sides have always pressed and been combative. Semi-interesting piece here, http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/b...2011-liverpool. I think it will be very interesting to see how he approaches tonight.

If you are going to read(/read anything into) that article, reading the below the line comment by the author might be important

Jonwilson's comment 10 January 2011 9:58PM

Nowhere have I said Dalglish will fail or that he's outmoded. I've merely analysed his tactics at the four club's he's managed. Very difficult to draw conclusions from Sunday with the early pen and red card. The strap asks a question I haven't tried to answer.

The bolded bit is something that apparently causes problems across the whole guardian website (annoying the writers as much as the readers)

more so in the sport section due to...the usual guff

*///
of the article itself (if anyone cares)

and at least one of the centre‑backs had licence to stride out with the ball into midfield

aah,The story goes (pre Kenny being manager) that when new players were brought around the changing room and introduced to the rest of the team, they were told every player has a set role except this lad who can do what he wants, that was Hansen.

so this freedom to come forward was not a team thing, it was more a player thing
(gillespie was very comfortable on the ball as well)

a caginess had started to set in. His last full season yielded 77 goals, but a starting eleven away to Arsenal that featured six players who'd spent most of their career in defence, plus Ronnie Whelan, was indicative of a growing mood of caution

Smells of angleshooting to set up the piece

At the time Pool were getting out muscled (decline set in in 88 imo) so an away game against a strong competitor???
Without seeing the team the full backs on both sides were people comfortable in wide midfield positions (**Stan/Nicol)

plus Ronnie Whelan

Too much lol to be dealing with

Id say he cut his cloth accordingly at both Blackburn and Newcastle
Apart from Shearer, quality players choose other teams and he had a very workmanlike squad (he tried to sign better players but they choose bigger clubs)

As for Celtic.... lol

piece smells of a good writer being given a small time frame to with a Liverpool piece about the manager (not his usual style at all)

**never liked Stan in a Liverpool shirt
Nicol played all over the park

[Insanodude]

Qatar winning 1-0 lol.

[Keane]

Qatar winning 1-0 lol.

[Keane]

2-0 now.

Fu.

[The Situation]

Qatar obv bought the win.

Why are people punting on the Asia cup

[Solskjaer]

2-0 now.

Fu.

OG?

[Wesley Harms]

Qatar obv bought the win.

Why are people punting on the Asia cup

Was hardly because of my tip was it

I said they were useless in FiFA but what the fuck do I know about the Asia cup

[Opr]

Looks like Glen will start tonight. Missus has the baby last night according to twitter updates.

Opr

[Opr]

Liverpool team

Reina, Kelly, Agger, Skrtel, Johnson, Poulsen, Lucas, Meireles, Jovanovic, Torres, Kuyt.

Opr