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    Fold/Call? Settle a dispute

    From a live tournament last week - Somebody was not happy!!!


    Blinds 500/1000

    11 players left (4 get paid), 5 handed:


    Folded to cut off (stack 19000) who raises to 2500, Short stack button pushes for 11000.

    Original raiser has Q 10

    Based on this info should he call or fold??

    #2
    Fold

    Comment


      #3
      Even though its only costing 8500 more to win 15000? Surely its not a straight forward fold.


      I did tank for quite a while but called for a few reasons:


      1. Im only dominated by 6/7 potential hands and i already have 2500 in there. The price is right against the rest of his range

      2. Hes very short and hes aware i have been openly stealing. He actually commented on it. I figure his range is far wider than the a fore mentioned 6/7 hands to include any small pair and any Ace/rag

      Granted i dont think it was a insta call but i certainly dont think calling was too far offside

      He had A2 off.....the rest is history


      Thanks

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by Supersonic View Post
        Even though its only costing 8500 more to win 15000? Surely its not a straight forward fold.


        I did tank for quite a while but called for a few reasons:


        1. Im only dominated by 6/7 potential hands and i already have 2500 in there. The price is right against the rest of his range

        2. Hes very short and hes aware i have been openly stealing. He actually commented on it. I figure his range is far wider than the a fore mentioned 6/7 hands to include any small pair and any Ace/rag

        Granted i dont think it was a insta call but i certainly dont think calling was too far offside

        He had A2 off.....the rest is history


        Thanks
        AA KK QQ JJ 1010 AK AQ AJ A10 KQ KJ K10 QJ. 13 hands have you dominated.

        Also behind to A2-9 K2-9 (16 hands)

        Racing v 22-99 (8 hands)

        So that's 37 hands.

        Beating Q9 J10 J9 109, or air.

        If you want to gamble, fine, but convincing yourself you're good here enough times to justify the call is incorrect imo.

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by Dice75 View Post
          AA KK QQ JJ 1010 AK AQ AJ A10 KQ KJ K10 QJ. 13 hands have you dominated.

          Also behind to A2-9 K2-9 (16 hands)

          Racing v 22-99 (8 hands)

          So that's 37 hands.

          Beating Q9 J10 J9 109, or air.

          If you want to gamble, fine, but convincing yourself you're good here enough times to justify the call is incorrect imo.
          Thanks again.


          Based on his stack size, pot odds, the blinds and the amount i have already in the middle and im snap calling everytime if i think im up against 29 of those hands:

          AK (40%)

          AJ (42%)

          KJ (42%)

          A2-A9 K2-K9 (Flipping)

          22--99 (Flipping)

          Comment


            #6
            I think you could pick a better spot mate with a 20bb stack..your puttin in more than half your stack on a guess and the guess is hoping your 60/40 atleast
            If found please feed me chips

            Comment


              #7
              Fair points.

              With 20 bb stack raise/fold was certainly an option against a bigger stack but i couldnt find the fold based on his short stack.

              IMO my biggest mistake was not realising he was so short!!

              Comment


                #8
                What were the stack sizes in the blinds man?maybe its just a fold pre.. but then again sometimes you get your raise trough so
                If found please feed me chips

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by Boylo91 View Post
                  What were the stack sizes in the blinds man?maybe its just a fold pre.. but then again sometimes you get your raise trough so
                  SB wasnt at the table and BB (tightest player at table) had about 20 bbs. I had already decided i was folding to a shove from the BB but would have been happy to play flop in position against him as he regularly called pre and folded to bet on flop.

                  Like i said my mistake was not realising the guy to my left was so short.

                  I still think it was (just about) correct call against him

                  I mean if he had 8 bbs is it still a lay down?? No chance!! even though im still up against the same possibilities and am probably 40% at best most of the time the most important factor IMO is his stack size

                  Comment


                    #10
                    You should be deciding on whether you call or fold before you raise. You are raising a dead blind from LP, it stinks of a steal. If I am BTN or BB here, I ship almost any 2 to take your steal.

                    If you have been openly stealing then there must be better spots. I just fold this tbh without raising. Stack size is awkward, hand is too marginal and easily dominated.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Just shove pre

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by Dice75 View Post
                        AA KK QQ JJ 1010 AK AQ AJ A10 KQ KJ K10 QJ. 13 hands have you dominated.

                        Also behind to A2-9 K2-9 (16 hands)

                        Racing v 22-99 (8 hands)

                        So that's 37 hands.

                        Beating Q9 J10 J9 109, or air.

                        If you want to gamble, fine, but convincing yourself you're good here enough times to justify the call is incorrect imo.
                        Ran it through EquiLab and we've 42% equity against a tight-ish range of 22+,A2s+,K7s+,QTs+,JTs,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+
                        8500/15000+8500 = 36% equity is needed to make the call.
                        Good call imo, we're obviously not in love with it but the odds are definitely there.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by Supersonic View Post
                          Even though its only costing 8500 more to win 15000? Surely its not a straight forward fold.
                          It's not as straight forward as pot odds. It's not a cash game.

                          Originally posted by Supersonic View Post
                          Based on his stack size, pot odds, the blinds and the amount i have already in the middle
                          It's good that you are aware of pots odds, at least you are thinking. But what you are failing to understand is that every chip isn't equal in late stage tourney play.
                          Basically, a chip lost is worth more than a chip gained.

                          You currently have 16500, and are considering risking just over half, for just under doubling up. I haven't done an equity calc (as we are missing 3 stacks) but i'd guess that, despite the chips amounts, you lose more than you gain by calling here.

                          and im snap calling everytime if i think im up against 29 of those hands:

                          AK (40%)

                          AJ (42%)

                          KJ (42%)

                          A2-A9 K2-K9 (Flipping)

                          22--99 (Flipping)
                          You aren't flipping with Ax and Kx hands.
                          40% equity isn't good enough here.

                          Originally posted by EVinfiinity View Post
                          Ran it through EquiLab and we've 42% equity against a tight-ish range of 22+,A2s+,K7s+,QTs+,JTs,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+
                          8500/15000+8500 = 36% equity is needed to make the call.
                          Good call imo, we're obviously not in love with it but the odds are definitely there.
                          The bolded line is where you are going wrong.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            That far off the money I don't think ICM will have that much of an effect.

                            My guess would be that its close to neutral EV.

                            Whatever the maths, the truth is that its close enough so that the guy who pushes should be aware he is likely to get called light, and shouldn't be getting annoyed about it.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
                              That far off the money I don't think ICM will have that much of an effect.
                              Ah, I thought it was 4 paid, 5 left.
                              ICM being huge on the bubble

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Mellor Q10 suited v A2/K2 etc is 48% which is pretty much a flip

                                Other than that thanks for a very informative post re tournament chip value V cash game

                                Hector - That was my point. He shouldnt be getting angry because it was not as straight forward as he suggested. I knew it was close to neutral and thats why i tanked for so long before i reluctantly called

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Look forget all the percentages and ICM for a second, you have 19 bigs, your after raising 2.5 bigs which leaves you with 16.5 bigs, you have to have a plan before you raise, if you get shoved on you have to know whether you are willing to stick in the rest of your stack with Q high or are you willing to raise fold which imo is not that bad, ok its suited but its still Q high.

                                  For me it is ship or fold pre, favoring fold.

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Granted i take on board what you have all said about me risking too much of my stack but why is nobody mentioning his stack size? If he had 5/6 bigs its a snap call. If he had 8/9 bigs is it a snap call??

                                    I dont agree with pushing 19 bigs tbh (just a personal thing) Personally if i was in the blinds i would see that as a 100% steal. Anyone with a decent hand is going to want action from the blinds. In these spots i would always raise 2/2.5 or 3x everytime. I like to be known to raise the same amount with and without a hand. Keep it consistent, keep them guessing.

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by TheImprover View Post
                                      Look forget all the percentages and ICM for a second, you have 19 bigs, your after raising 2.5 bigs which leaves you with 16.5 bigs, you have to have a plan before you raise, if you get shoved on you have to know whether you are willing to stick in the rest of your stack with Q high or are you willing to raise fold which imo is not that bad, ok its suited but its still Q high.

                                      For me it is ship or fold pre, favoring fold.
                                      Totally agree with this Improver. I had a plan (as i like to think i always do). My plan was to fold to a shove. The problem was that i hadn't realised he was so short. I thought he was playing close to 20 bigs. When i realised he was so short THEN i suddenly had a decision

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Supersonic View Post
                                        Granted i take on board what you have all said about me risking too much of my stack but why is nobody mentioning his stack size? If he had 5/6 bigs its a snap call. If he had 8/9 bigs is it a snap call??

                                        I dont agree with pushing 19 bigs tbh (just a personal thing) Personally if i was in the blinds i would see that as a 100% steal. Anyone with a decent hand is going to want action from the blinds. In these spots i would always raise 2/2.5 or 3x everytime. I like to be known to raise the same amount with and without a hand. Keep it consistent, keep them guessing.
                                        If you shove you can get people to fold Ace rag, baby pairs, and the like of j k jq which they may reshove with but wont call a shove with.

                                        Why give yourself a flip when you can just steal the blinds most of the time.

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          Shoving 19 bigs here is terrible unless all the stacks still to act are less than the villians.
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                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by BallymoreChris View Post
                                            Shoving 19 bigs here is terrible unless all the stacks still to act are less than the villians.
                                            Cheers Chris

                                            Would love to hear your opinion on how you would have played the hand??

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Think you should just min raise pre for sure.

                                              stack size for all players behind is important here.

                                              if its like 10-15 bbs effective then think shoving is fine otherwise r/f seems ok
                                              “The only way to get smarter is by playing a smarter opponent.”

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Mellor View Post
                                                It's not as straight forward as pot odds. It's not a cash game.

                                                It's good that you are aware of pots odds, at least you are thinking. But what you are failing to understand is that every chip isn't equal in late stage tourney play.
                                                Basically, a chip lost is worth more than a chip gained.

                                                You currently have 16500, and are considering risking just over half, for just under doubling up. I haven't done an equity calc (as we are missing 3 stacks) but i'd guess that, despite the chips amounts, you lose more than you gain by calling here.


                                                You aren't flipping with Ax and Kx hands.
                                                40% equity isn't good enough here.



                                                The bolded line is where you are going wrong.
                                                Apologies if I'm having a brain fart here but what's incorrect about the bolded line? I understand that it isn't a cash game but I feel the odds we're getting in relation to our equity is too good to pass on IMO. Don't like shoving for 19 bb unless the stack in the bb is also short.

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by BallymoreChris View Post
                                                  Shoving 19 bigs here is terrible unless all the stacks still to act are less than the villians.
                                                  I thought it was exact bubble too

                                                  Comment


                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Supersonic View Post
                                                    Mellor Q10 suited v A2/K2 etc is 48% which is pretty much a flip

                                                    Other than that thanks for a very informative post re tournament chip value V cash game
                                                    QTs v A2o its 48%, v A2s is 45%, v K9s its 43%
                                                    It's not always 48%.

                                                    Numbers close to 50 might look like a flip, but it can be misleading. 45% vrs 55% might win almost half the time, but the reality is that the 55% has a 22% greater equity - not the 10% you'd expect.
                                                    Even 52%, a tiny edge, has 8% greater equity.


                                                    The chip value point I made was was mostly down to the fact I thought it was the bubble.
                                                    It's not irrelevant at 11 players, it its significantly reduced.

                                                    Originally posted by EVinfiinity View Post
                                                    Apologies if I'm having a brain fart here but what's incorrect about the bolded line? I understand that it isn't a cash game but I feel the odds we're getting in relation to our equity is too good to pass on IMO. Don't like shoving for 19 bb unless the stack in the bb is also short.
                                                    Nah it was me that had the brain fart, thought this was the final table with 4 paid. Making chip value vastly different from actual prize money equity. ie An ICM spot.
                                                    It's a massive factor on the bubble, but not as much with a bit to go to the money.
                                                    I won't drag the OP further off with ICM talk, but if you want a bit more detail shoot me a PM.

                                                    Comment


                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Supersonic View Post
                                                      Totally agree with this Improver. I had a plan (as i like to think i always do). My plan was to fold to a shove. The problem was that i hadn't realised he was so short. I thought he was playing close to 20 bigs. When i realised he was so short THEN i suddenly had a decision
                                                      The table is 5 handed and you are in the cut-off (if Im reading it right). The button is seated beside you. You obviously have a good grasp of the game from the way you are talking on this thread, but not knowing the stack size of the player on your immediate left (specially when its 5 handed) is poor. You should be aware of each of your 4 opponnents stacks to within a blind or 2 when the game is playing so shallow.

                                                      FWIW, Id raise 2x or 2.2x and fold to a shove. As played, I still fold to the shove.

                                                      Comment

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