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tough spot on bubble of $215 scoop 2

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    tough spot on bubble of $215 scoop 2

    just got moved too a new table ...been there for 2 orbits b4 this hand so dont no much about the players...blinds are 700/1400 im playing 80k i min raise too 2800 with QQ in early position....a shorty in the cutoff who got 77 allin for 30bb the previous hand shoves for 12,600 the guy on the button tanks for about a minute and 4 bets too 22,500 with 110k behind back on us...call/fold/raise?

    #2
    Originally posted by 1foryou3forme View Post
    just got moved too a new table ...been there for 2 orbits b4 this hand so dont no much about the players...blinds are 700/1400 im playing 80k i min raise too 2800 with QQ in early position....a shorty in the cutoff who got 77 allin for 30bb the previous hand shoves for 12,600 the guy on the button tanks for about a minute and 4 bets too 22,500 with 110k behind back on us...call/fold/raise?
    I'd definitely play the hand.
    U are crushing the shorties range which must be most pairs, lots of aces and any 2 high cards.
    Button could be quite wide also. Your minraise doesn't mean alot and if he has AQ, 9s, 10s, Js he can often be raising to chase you out of the pot at least a decent % of the time.
    You can't raise here without being willing to get it in which is too high a variance play IMO although others may disagree. I'd call and see a flop and procede cautiously.

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      #3
      Please tell me u shipped!? theres no other play! u want to win the tourney yea? only one way to get all the chips and thats by raising!! AWH IN!!

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        #4
        Originally posted by Arazi View Post
        I'd definitely play the hand.
        U are crushing the shorties range which must be most pairs, lots of aces and any 2 high cards.
        Button could be quite wide also. Your minraise doesn't mean alot and if he has AQ, 9s, 10s, Js he can often be raising to chase you out of the pot at least a decent % of the time.
        You can't raise here without being willing to get it in which is too high a variance play IMO although others may disagree. I'd call and see a flop and procede cautiously.
        There is 35k in the middle now. If we call there will be 55k and we will have approx 65k back.

        How, exactly, can you proceed cautiously from this point?
        I think it is a shove or fold at this point.

        Villain should find it hard to get away from any hand he can make it 22.5k with, since your shove will give him circa 2:1. The only question is, would he play this way with worse than AK/KK/AA?

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          #5
          theres a very good chance he would play 9s+ and AQs+ this way so i think its a very easy shove.

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            #6
            Originally posted by fuzzbox View Post
            There is 35k in the middle now. If we call there will be 55k and we will have approx 65k back.

            How, exactly, can you proceed cautiously from this point?
            I think it is a shove or fold at this point.

            Villain should find it hard to get away from any hand he can make it 22.5k with, since your shove will give him circa 2:1. The only question is, would he play this way with worse than AK/KK/AA?
            The reason that this is flawed is that there really isn't 55k in the middle and 65k back if we call. There would be circa 40k in the main pot where betting is finished and 20k in a sidepot where betting continues and we'd have about 60k behind. It's a little more complex with the side pot in play than you make out. If you're competent post flop you don't need to make a high variance play here by shoving, shoving is not terrible thou.

            If we call and an Ace or King flops then there is a good chance that we may already be behind in the main pot if not both pots so we can check and probably give up (losing 25% of our stack), ie play cautiously.
            If we flop low I'd be inclined to lead for about the size of the side pot and play to get it in (this part of course depends on the texture of the flop).
            Last edited by Arazi; 07-05-12, 16:30.

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              #7
              Originally posted by pumpkinS00P View Post
              theres a very good chance he would play 9s+ and AQs+ this way so i think its a very easy shove.
              You think he gets those hands in if we raise?

              Originally posted by Arazi View Post
              The reason that this is flawed is that there really isn't 55k in the middle and 65k back if we call. There would be circa 40k in the main pot where betting is finished and 20k in a sidepot where betting continues and we'd have about 60k behind. It's a little more complex with the side pot in play than you make out.
              If anything the side pot increases our equity here. And makes me more eager to get the chips in

              If we flop low I'd be inclined to lead for about the size of the side pot and play to get it in (this part of course depends on the texture of the flop).
              Basing your bet sizing on the side pot and not the total is really bad imo.
              I don't think the stop and go line you are suggesting is a paticularly bad idea, but the flop bet is all or nothing for me.

              Tight-ish player (Fair assumption?) min-opens EP at a full ring table. There isn't a huge amount of value, if any, for the button in trying to isolate. We won't get it in any better than 50/50 pre. And folding is too weak here. All-in is the nice straight forward option. But I just know that in the moment, I'd be getting out of line with a call.

              I never fold though.
              Last edited by Mellor; 08-05-12, 02:04.

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                #8
                .
                Last edited by Arazi; 08-05-12, 06:03. Reason: Double posted

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                  #9
                  Don't agree that the flop bet is all or nothing. If villain is playing 99 1010 we have more chance of getting him All In if we go for 2 streets.

                  Another reason I like this approach is that we are facing 2 opponents who have shown a lot of strength, I don't think it's good enough to just say "oh well I have QQ if someone else has better its just a cooler", I'd rather give myself an escape hatch where I can get out with 75% of my stack intact if I don't flop "safe". That approach maybe too cautious but I think it's prudent in this spot.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by Arazi View Post
                    Don't agree that the flop bet is all or nothing. If villain is playing 99 1010 we have more chance of getting him All In if we go for 2 streets.
                    Unless he is a complete fish he has to realise that if you bet 20k into 55k the remaining 40k is going in by showdown. So it should make a difference to a hand like 99, he isn't hunting for a set on the turn. If anything the betting over two streets looks suspect and will cause he to think twice.

                    Another reason I like this approach is that we are facing 2 opponents who have shown a lot of strength, I don't think it's good enough to just say "oh well I have QQ if someone else has better its just a cooler", I'd rather give myself an escape hatch where I can get out with 75% of my stack intact if I don't flop "safe". That approach maybe too cautious but I think it's prudent in this spot.
                    Two players haven't shown strength. A shortie shove over an open could be a wide range. As for the second point, I didn't have an issue with stop and go. it's not about an escape hatch.
                    Only bettIng 1/3rd of the pot when we have a PSB behind.

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                      #11
                      Really depends how good/aggro BTN is imo. If good, he can do this way wider than you give credit for cos it puts you in a really tough spot where you're only continuing like top 2% (or 15-20% of your opening range) given stack depth. It's just one of those spots where he can force a lot of mistakes, folding out a range with good equity vs his, which in turn gives him better direct pot odds to iso. CO will block A/K combos a decent amount too so we have bit more than 40% vs a 4b/c range of QQ+/AK which isn't terrible.

                      Math-wise even if we assume villain 4b/c 50% here (4b top-5% calling with top-2.5%), then we net like +10k by shoving. He can easily be wider, and thus 4b/f more, but it's w/e cos adding JJ to his 4b/c range significantly improves our equity anyway. In any case we only approach breakeven/loss when BTN is 4b/c 70% (so 4b like TT+,AK, and 4b/c QQ+,AK) but you would need a fairly nitty read to assume he's that tight facing this action.
                      "c'est en faisant n'importe quoi qu'on devient n'importe qui"

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                        #12
                        This is a good time to have a look at opr for ratings and importantly in this case average buy in stats.
                        If he looks competent and his abi is high particularly if is mine lower I'm inclined to think shove > call >>>>>>> fold
                        If his is low <$20 I start to think about folding and get to a point where I really really want to... before I actually shove.
                        Turning millions into thousands

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                          #13
                          Thanks for the replys lads. aggre that the range i should be putting the button 4 beter on is 9s+ and AQ+ at the time of the hand i had a feeling he was a lot stronger then this so i thought he would only do this with 10/JJ/AK/KK/AA which is obv a mistake and i tout 40% of the time im ahead 40% im behind and 20% of the time im flipping after about a minute i ended up making a very cautious fold. my logic for this at the time was ive only 2800 invested in the hand and ive 77k behind was no need too be risking my stack in a spot where i think im ahead 40% of the time. this is prob the only hand i have any regrets about from the weekend still annoys me a bit. turns out the short stack ship also had QQ and the 4 bet had JJ...board ran out low and the QQ held...

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