Quick basic tourney spot. Blind on blind

[BobSloane]

Quick one from a $33 tournament.
12 left avg stack ~40k. Blinds 1k/2k/75 ante. 7 handed.
Folded to sb who makes it 4900. I am in the bb with 33.
I have 36k total, he has ~50k. He's playing 16/14 over 100 hands and has a fold button.
Is jamming here + or - ev?

[sligoboi]

What are you playing (stats wise)? How long are you playing together?

[BobSloane]

Im not playing too crazy maybe 18/15 or the like. The 100 hands are all from this tournament but at different tables. I doubled up in the last orbit after jamming AQ pre for 15 bbs over mp raise and getting called by KJ. Thats the only hand I've shown down at this table i think

[Wombatman]

Very dependant of player info. but in general I would say shove is marginally +EV in these spots.

[8611]

I'm folding here. I'm relatively new to stats but I think 16/14 indicates you should give his raise a little respect and you've a very playable stack, no need to push here. has he been active in LP or SB against you generally?

[Tremolo1]

His steal% is a lot more important than his VPIP/PFR here. I shove

[TommyGunne]

How has he adjusted to being shorter and, as Tremolo says, what is his steal like?

I think I like shoving cos I don't think people call often enough in these scenarios, and I think its better than calling too. Like I think people playing his kind of stats only call like 77+,AQ+ which is 6% which means if he opens any more than 14% you are making a profit discounting ICM.

ICM will probably make a bit of a difference here, but I think you'll definitely be turning a good profit by shoving.

Its relatively easy to work out anyway with the added ICM, its just a small adjustment. Dunno what the payouts are like or what stack distributions are like so can't do that atm, but I would be very surprised if it wasn't a good shoving spot.

As a warning though, some guys will open very tight in the SB vs people who are in any way aggro which makes shoving a lot less good.

[BobSloane]

His steal is 44%. Tbh I can't remember it being folded to us since this table started. Lots of open jamming or 3betting all in over a raise. Not a very exciting result fwiw. I ship and he snaps obv with KK and holds. At first I was mad with myself for spewing but then I got to thinking it was at least kind of close and prob not a huge mistake. I agree with TGs calling range and I have 32% against it which isn't so bad. I think he will fold 55,AT,KQ type hands - but maybe he wont i dunno. Not sure what I'd do if situation arose again

[JamieCarra]

I'm shoving a lot wider than 33 here

[kincsem]

I fold and I don't know why.

[max_power]

Yeah i ship it in.

[peterswellman]

Shipping every single time. Just UL.

[Flushdraw]

I'm shoving a lot wider than 33 here

Yeah me too