Football-betting thread

[Kenny]

i probably should leave it

[Raheny Red]

I'm backed them DNB @ 2.44

[TommyGunne]

I'm backed them DNB @ 2.44

I'm on Sunderland anyway!

[TommyGunne]

Boom with the 91st minute winner for Lens! BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!

[Hexas Toldem]

Man Utd to win and Berbatov to score anytime @ 21/10 is my bet of the day

[Hexas Toldem]

Man Utd to win and Berbatov to score anytime @ 21/10 is my bet of the day

Bet didn't come off but Utd got their first win on the road this season so that softened the blow a bit

[The Situation]

Laying Spurs at evs in the early kick off tomorrow. Everton are not the sort of team you'd like to face after only two and a half days rest from a tough European away tie. They've bounced back well from another shocking start to the season with two wins recently, and have a really good record against Spurs at WHL. Think they're fairly evenly matched in term of ability with maybe Spurs shading it up front, but the aforementioned lack of recovery time will play a huge factor imo!

Also backing Lazio at 8/11 on Sunday at home to Cagliari. Cagliari are pretty poor away from Sardinia, not winning an away tie since last January. In contrast Lazio are riding high at the top of the table, been brilliant at home and should keep the run going here.

Simples,

Toying with getting on Inter at 4/7(boyles) in the San Siro tonight. Sampdoria had a long trip to Ukraine on Thursday, wheras Inter only played one half of football on Wednesday night. Prob wait for starting line ups before getting on!

[Straddle]

Strike Rate: 9/11

-----

Japanese J League FC Tokyo v Albirex Niigata - LOSE
Championship Watford v Scunthorpe - LOSE
Dutch Eredivisie De Graafschap v Heracles - LOSE

5 pts each, over 2.5 goals.

Strike rate: 9/14

Groningen v ADO Den Haag - over 2.5 goals
Utrecht v Excelsior - over 2.5 goals

[TommyGunne]

Straddle, I'd be interested to see how you are coming up with these bets. I'm modelling a load of stuff surrounding soccer at the moment, so would be interested in seeing what sort of approach you are taking.

[Straddle]

PM sent

[Semibluff]

pm also if you wouldnt mind

[Keane]

I'm always in the market for a gambling tip too if you're not too secretive about the whole thing drop me a PM please

[Straddle]

over 2.5 goals

Saturday:

Leicester v Preston
Scunthorpe v Leeds
Rangers v Inverness
Gent v Mechelen
Heracles v Ajax
Wolfsburg v Stuttgart
werder Bremen v Nurnberg

Sunday:

Aalesund v SK Brann

[Guest]

Straddle, I'd be interested to see how you are coming up with these bets. I'm modelling a load of stuff surrounding soccer at the moment, so would be interested in seeing what sort of approach you are taking.

I am a nosey bastard that likes a gamble as well, PM please

Thanks

[The Situation]

Wouldn't mind seeing that pm Straddle please if you want, I assume your using some sort of poisson distribution?

Anyways out to get the big boys and Liverpool this weekend. Rangers are the first of my lays at about 1/5 against Inverness. It's one of those fixtures that often throws up strange results with Rangers only beating them in two of there last six meetings at Ibrox which is a very surprising stat. Inverness are coming into the game in good form, unbeaten in four including two away wins. It's also possible that after beating Celtic and a good draw against Vanencia that Rangers could approach this in a after the lord mayors show style and not be at their best. I also think the overs advised by Straddle has a slight edge.

Small lays on Chelsea, City and Liverpool as well.

[Guest]

PM sent

Straddle, if you don't mind spreading the love a little thin
Id love to see how you are picking these bets

In exchange, I will let you in on the secret of my Saturday, 2:55, bored off my head, first goalscorer trixie action

[The Situation]

Laying 1/5 shots ftw. That's nearly a year unbeaten on the road for Inverness.

Should have greened up in the Chelski game after B'burn went ahead. LOL City

[Straddle]

Groningen v ADO Den Haag - over 2.5 goals - WIN
Utrecht v Excelsior - over 2.5 goals - LOSE

over 2.5 goals

Saturday:

Leicester v Preston - LOSE
Scunthorpe v Leeds - WIN
Rangers v Inverness - LOSE
Gent v Mechelen - WIN
Heracles v Ajax - WIN
Wolfsburg v Stuttgart - LOSE
werder Bremen v Nurnberg - WIN

Sunday:

Aalesund v SK Brann - WIN

Strike rate:

over 1.5 goals: 23/24
over 2.5 goals: 15/24

[The Situation]

West Brom are a little short at B'pool tonight. Small lay on them.

Focussing all my midweek attention on laying the crap out of Milan against Madrid. Milan are proving very easily tactically outclassed and Jose is the king of exploiting opponents weaknesses and he's owned Milan in recent meetings at Inter and when they met a few weeks ago. Milan are extremely low on work-rate in attacking areas, Ibra and Robinho are basically lazy cunts. On two occasions this year the goalkeeper on the opposing teams have covered more distance in a game than Ibra. This lack of work-rate and pressing high up the pitch will make it easy for the likes of Alonso and kediera to retain possesion and ping it about under little pressure. Milan are also hugely lacking in mobility in Midfield and defence. Madrid should be pretty motivated too because any result should see them progress into the last 16 with two games remaining to rest players.

[Straddle]

over 2.5 goals

Werder Bremen v FC Twente
Gent v Sporting Lisbon
Getafe v Stuttgart

[Straddle]

Not many selections this week:


Thursday:

OB v Young Boys (Europa League)

Saturday:

Groningen v NAC Breda (Dutch Eredivise)

Sunday:

Lyngby v SonderjyskE (Denmark)

[Straddle]

over 2.5 goals

Werder Bremen v FC Twente - LOSE
Gent v Sporting Lisbon - WIN
Getafe v Stuttgart - WIN

Strike rate:

over 1.5 goals: 26/27
over 2.5 goals: 17/27


-----

To add in more selections in a quiet weekend my under 2.5 games for the weekend are:


Udinese-Cagliari
Sampdoria-Catania
Birmingham-West Ham
Napoli-Parma
Fulham-Aston Villa
Fiorentina-Chievo
Sunderland-Stoke
Bordeaux-Valenciennes

[Keane]

Not many selections this week:


Thursday:

OB v Young Boys (Europa League)

Saturday:

Groningen v NAC Breda (Dutch Eredivise)

Sunday:

Lyngby v SonderjyskE (Denmark)

Are these over 2.5 or over 1.5?

[Aido9]

spurs and derby to win at 5/1 also put a wee bet on pool to win...3/1 at home.cudnt resist even if it is chelsea ther playn.

[Hexas Toldem]

Chelsea @ 11/10 are just too big a price for this,also going to have a cut at a Chelsea win and Drogba to score anytime @ 13/5.

[The Situation]

Nice work on those unders at the weekend Straddle.

Udinese are my midweek tip away to Catania at about ~2's. Two sides recent form figures tell the whole story. Udinese are unbeaten in five(winning 4 of these) in the league wheras Catania haven't won a game in that time. Catania are also struggling with injuries especially at the back and a second game in a week will really test their limited squad while Udinese have more depth to deal with a double fixture week.

Also will prob lay Liverpool tomorrow night at Wigan.

[Straddle]

Are these over 2.5 or over 1.5?

Only 2.5 goals. I'm quoting over 1.5 to look back and see if the ROI can be optimised.

To add in more selections in a quiet weekend my under 2.5 games for the weekend are:


Udinese-Cagliari - WIN
Sampdoria-Catania - WIN
Birmingham-West Ham - LOSE
Napoli-Parma - WIN
Fulham-Aston Villa - WIN
Fiorentina-Chievo - WIN
Sunderland-Stoke - WIN
Bordeaux-Valenciennes - WIN

Not many selections this week:


Thursday:

OB v Young Boys (Europa League) - LOSE

Saturday:

Groningen v NAC Breda (Dutch Eredivise) - WIN

Sunday:

Lyngby v SonderjyskE (Denmark) - LOSE

-----

Strike rate:

over 1.5 goals: 28/30
over 2.5 goals: 18/30
under 2.5 goals: 7/8


Tuesday:

Portsmouth v QPR - under 2.5
Millwall v Norwich - under 2.5
Burnley v Doncaster - over 2.5

[kaiser soze]

treble on tonight. swansea leeds and qpr all for the win

[Straddle]

Tuesday:

Portsmouth v QPR - under 2.5 - WIN
Millwall v Norwich - under 2.5 - WIN
Burnley v Doncaster - over 2.5 - LOSE



Strike rate:

over 1.5 goals: 29/31
over 2.5 goals: 18/31
under 2.5 goals: 9/10

[Straddle]

Under 2.5 goals


Genoa-Bologna
Catania-Udinese
Lecce-Inter
Brescia-Juventus
Cagliari-Napoli
Roma-Fiorentina
Chievo-Bari

[Keane]

Only 2.5 goals. I'm quoting over 1.5 to look back and see if the ROI can be optimised.

I'm with you now. Will be an interesting one.

Strike rate:

over 1.5 goals: 29/31
over 2.5 goals: 18/31
under 2.5 goals: 9/10

Going great on the unders, wp.

[Straddle]

Under 2.5 goals


Genoa-Bologna - WIN
Catania-Udinese - WIN
Lecce-Inter - WIN
Brescia-Juventus - WIN
Cagliari-Napoli - WIN
Roma-Fiorentina - LOSE
Chievo-Bari - WIN

Strike rate:

over 1.5 goals: 29/31
over 2.5 goals: 18/31
under 2.5 goals: 15/17

Thursday:

Parma - Sampdoria - under 2.5 goals.

[The Situation]

Thursday:

Parma - Sampdoria - under 2.5 goals.

This is unbelievably good at 4/7. Out of the twenty previous games involving these two teams this season there's only been three over 2.5 goal games.

Strange that there's been so little goals in Serie A so far this season compared to the last ten years. Maybe it's just an anomoly or possibly their reverting to their 1980's/90's type. Either way there's plenty of value around in the unders market at the moment.

[Semibluff]

straddle, is there a percise price you are backing them at? say will you back it at 1.9 and not if 1.75?
Of do you just back the unders in a certain game regardless of what price it is??

[Straddle]

Strike rate:

over 1.5 goals: 29/31
over 2.5 goals: 18/31
under 2.5 goals: 16/18

Thursday:

Parma - Sampdoria - under 2.5 goals. - WIN

Friday - Under 2.5 goals:

Istres-Vannes
Nimes-Troyes
Boulogne-Metz
Angers-Nantes
Le Havre-Laval
Clermont-Chateroux

[flash]

straddle,out of interest,which betting site/exchange do you find best for your bets.

been following them for a while now.well done keep it up

[Straddle]

I have multiple accounts.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/...over-under-2.5

[Straddle]

straddle, is there a percise price you are backing them at? say will you back it at 1.9 and not if 1.75?
Of do you just back the unders in a certain game regardless of what price it is??

I set different parameters for different leagues and back at best price. I have tighter margins for Ligue 2 than Ligue 1 in the unders market. The odds required relate to the stats and the basement price I will take is 1.43 even if both teams have finished their last 5 games 0-0. The percentage bet is relative to perceived value.

[Straddle]

Friday - Under 2.5 goals:

Istres-Vannes - LOSE
Nimes-Troyes - WIN
Boulogne-Metz - POSTPONED
Angers-Nantes - WIN
Le Havre-Laval -WIN
Clermont-Chateroux - WIN

Strike rate:

over 1.5 goals: 29/31
over 2.5 goals: 18/31
under 2.5 goals: 20/23

[Straddle]

Saturday:


---

Under 2.5

Mainz-Hanover
Marseille-Lens
Monaco-Arles
Nottingham-QPR

Over 2.5

Leicester-Derby
Tottenham-Blackburn
Portsmouth-Doncaster
Newcastle-Fulham
Kaiserslautern-Stuttgart
Roda-Utrecht
Caen-Lille
Burnley-Watford
Leeds-Bristol
Wigan-West Brom
Eupen-Mechelen
Crystal Palace-Coventry
West Ham-Blackpool
Club Bruges-Lierse
Koln-Monchengladbach

[connie147]

Ive been looking at this weeks friendly internationals. Normally, I hate punting in friendlys, but then again, I hate passing up value when I see it. And the game that sticks out for me is Ireland v Norway.
Here is Norways group from the current european c/ships qualifying campaign. They have played 3 and won 3, with 2 away wins against Iceland and Cyprus, and a home win over Portugal.

Group H
Teams P W D L F A +/- Pts
1 Norway 3 3 0 0 5 2 3 9
2 Portugal 4 2 1 1 10 7 3 7
3 Denmark 3 2 0 1 4 3 1 6
4 Cyprus 3 0 1 2 5 8 -3 1
5 Iceland 3 0 0 3 2 6 -4 0

As for friendlys, Norway have played 7 friendlys in the last 12 months, winning 5 and losing 2.

Oct 10t 2009 Norway 1 v 0 South Africa
Nov 14th 2010 Switzerland 0 v 1 Norway
Mar 03rd 2010 Slovakia 0 v 1 Norway
May 29th 2010 Norway 2 v 1 Montenegro
June 2nd 2010 Norway 0 v 1 Ukraine
Aug 11th 2010 Norway 2 v 1 France
Oct 12th 2010 Croatia 2 v 1 Norway

Looking at the line ups, Norway seem to field extremely strong teams for their friendlys as there doesnt seem to be much change from the team that plays the euro games and the friendlies.
They are ranked 13th in the world, 19 places above us. We have a severely depleted team. Can someone give me a good reason not to have a decent punt on Norway at approz 9/4?

[kaiser soze]

NO. Ur correct Connie seriously depleted Irish squad might have a punt on Norway myself.like u would not be 1 for backing on friendlies.The only thing I would be afraid of is we are a bit of a draw expert team at home.

[Guest]

My money is going on Walsall and Brighton in a wee double tonight.

whats everyone else on?

[MegaSin]

Norway

Russia

England

10/1 ish

[Raheny Red]

Looking at the line ups, Norway seem to field extremely strong teams for their friendlys as there doesnt seem to be much change from the team that plays the euro games and the friendlies.
They are ranked 13th in the world, 19 places above us. We have a severely depleted team. Can someone give me a good reason not to have a decent punt on Norway at approz 9/4?

I'm on already in the DNB market. Would have backed them straight up but it's a friendly so threading carefully. As for the bolded bit, lol fifarankaments.

[davepoke/her]

Italy, Holland and Russia is a little over 4/1. Good value? Throw in Norway and it's nearly 13/1.

[Aya14]

Italy, Holland and Russia is a little over 4/1. Good value? Throw in Norway and it's nearly 13/1.

Wouldnt recommend backing Italy in a friendly in particular away from home, Romania aren't the worst side either.

[Aya14]

Also 5/4 is still available about Norway in the draw no bet market for those interested.

[Reaps]

Also 5/4 is still available about Norway in the draw no bet market for those interested.

Where's that Aya? Might re-invest my newly gained ton, spin up time!

[Aya14]

Where's that Aya? Might re-invest my newly gained ton, spin up time!

Boyles and Corals every1 else gone 11/10 or shorter

[Reaps]

that is a very poor back four for this level that Ireland have named.

Does anyone know what strenght team Norway has named?

[Straddle]

International friendly accumulators are a worse bet than hoping to hit the euromillions. Ireland / Norway will be won or lost down Irelands left flank. I dont know if I can see Norway winning 30% of the time for value (3.25 Stan James). I would also factor in that the norwegian league is coming to the end and a few of the players will be feeling the effects of a full season on top of playing away.

[shano_88]

Biggest bet in a while on Norway to win, draw no bet.

Not feeling too patriotic right now!

[Reaps]

On @ 5/4 myself, come on Norway!

[Reaps]

Boom.....Norway.....what a terrible match

[connie147]

Lucky enough to collecy the loot on Norway tonite, but who cares. poor enough game really.

[Reaps]

Anyone else think there's some value in the 9/2 about Spurs at Arsenal today?

[The Situation]

Anyone else think there's some value in the 9/2 about Spurs at Arsenal today?

Not really, Spurs never beat Arsenal away. Nine losses and seven draws since their last pl win in 93 . Could be a little value in the draw but I'm staying clear of the game. I do think it's the best footballing derby in Europe though so no need for a bet to enjoy the game!

Edit Huddlestone is injured too, major negative from Spurs perspective.

[The C Kid]

Arsenal are an absolute certainty. Biggest soccer bet of the year so far for me.

I'd have them priced up as a 1/2 shot.

[Aya14]

I'm on Arsenal if you're backing Spurs I'd reccommend taking the 11/4 in the draw no bet market.