Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Irish General Election betting thread

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
    that's my constituency and literally anything could happen yet
    Seems like a sensible lad though in comparison to some of the other candidates I spoke to in the constituency. You'd think he'd be transfer friendly but I guess Labour have been anything but around the country.
    Profit before people.

    Comment


      Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
      that would be all of us!

      latest guesstimate is:
      Indeed.

      Will you send me your details as well please. Well played. Still happy enough with the bet though and I enjoyed the 5/6 month sweat!

      Comment


        Originally posted by shano1888 View Post
        Indeed.

        Will you send me your details as well please. Well played. Still happy enough with the bet though.
        when I saw 13.8% SF first preference I thought I was going to be in serious trouble with this one so it was a great bet, plus they fucked up royally in some constituencies (might well lose a seat in Donegal!) - wp.
        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

        Comment


          Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
          that's my constituency and literally anything could happen yet
          Power could nick the last seat
          His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.

          Comment


            Originally posted by elbows View Post
            Power could nick the last seat
            Nooooooooooooooooo
            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

            Comment


              Originally posted by Lord Sir Christmas View Post
              small bet for interest on local counsellor Rock in DNW, he's good bants.
              X can be anything, any number, that is what’s CRAZY about X.
              Because X doesn’t roll like that, because X can’t be pinned down!

              $ Free Travel Credit with Airbnb $

              Comment


                Originally posted by elbows View Post
                Power could nick the last seat
                She shouldn't have thrown the toys out of the pram.

                Had she stayed in FF I think they might have sneaked the 2 seats on the day that was in it, no chance as Indo I would say.

                Lol Averil

                Comment


                  Originally posted by elbows View Post
                  Power could nick the last seat
                  Well let's look at it. Sinner going will transfer hugely to female Sinner given how well Sinners usually co-ordinate their voting - military precision as Bowman put it today

                  This could have Mitchell up to 8k+ in 3rd.

                  Next gone is FF's Heney which will put Haughey into a probably uncatchable position.

                  Power will probably pick up some from both of these transfers.

                  Cian O'Callaghan SD out next, should transfer heavily to Lab's O'Riordain, maybe some to Broughan?

                  Then the next elimination is either AAAPBP Lyons, Ind Broughan, Ind Power, or possibly Ind McGrath. Power is currently the bottom of that list, and there's every reason to suspect she may go at that point.

                  I don't know the different geographical aspects of it, but it does seem like it be probably be as predicted with Bruton, Haughey, Mitchell, O'Riordain, and McGrath. I would suggest that only Broughan could gatecrash that.

                  Comment


                    Just saw my Freudian slip there with Sinner instead of Shinner. Heard a better one on RTE 1 about midday when a reporter trying to say O'Snodaigh had been "elected" managed to first say "arrested"

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by hotspur View Post
                      Well let's look at it. Sinner going will transfer hugely to female Sinner given how well Sinners usually co-ordinate their voting - military precision as Bowman put it today

                      This could have Mitchell up to 8k+ in 3rd.

                      Next gone is FF's Heney which will put Haughey into a probably uncatchable position.

                      Power will probably pick up some from both of these transfers.

                      Cian O'Callaghan SD out next, should transfer heavily to Lab's O'Riordain, maybe some to Broughan?

                      Then the next elimination is either AAAPBP Lyons, Ind Broughan, Ind Power, or possibly Ind McGrath. Power is currently the bottom of that list, and there's every reason to suspect she may go at that point.

                      I don't know the different geographical aspects of it, but it does seem like it be probably be as predicted with Bruton, Haughey, Mitchell, O'Riordain, and McGrath. I would suggest that only Broughan could gatecrash that.
                      Can defo see Power calling for a recount if shes close if/when eliminated.

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                        Aodhan O' Riordain should get them over the line.
                        Penrose starting to look likely too in Longford-Westmeath, they might sneak 8
                        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                        Comment


                          ...
                          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                          Comment


                            With the numbers almost known, FF/FG are unlikely to want to lose a seat by providing the Ceann Comharile ? Of those quoted only Howlin 6/1 and Grealish 12/1 are non FF/FG. Have a vague recollection of Howlin being a Deputy CC before.

                            For the first time the voting will be done by secret ballot so you would imagine there will be some contact between the whips prior to arriving in on Mar 10.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                              Power could easily get a decent chunk of SD. She paid a lot of lip service to the same types of themes as the SDs.
                              Yeah Soc Dems haven't been transferring to Labour much in other constituencies, only 7% of Stephen Donnelly's surplus went to labour and similarly low in Shortalls and Murphy's areas.
                              Profit before people.

                              Comment


                                ...
                                "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                Comment


                                  Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                  Power could easily get a decent chunk of SD. She paid a lot of lip service to the same types of themes as the SDs.
                                  Stop It Now.

                                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                  Comment


                                    Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                    Stop It Now.

                                    She has no chance you loon! Next out imo, should be able to hear the screams of fury from my gaff.
                                    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                    Comment


                                      Originally posted by horatio1 View Post
                                      With the numbers almost known, FF/FG are unlikely to want to lose a seat by providing the Ceann Comharile ? Of those quoted only Howlin 6/1 and Grealish 12/1 are non FF/FG. Have a vague recollection of Howlin being a Deputy CC before.

                                      For the first time the voting will be done by secret ballot so you would imagine there will be some contact between the whips prior to arriving in on Mar 10.
                                      Where are the odds for next CC?

                                      Very attractive position now considering the likelihood of another election soon.

                                      Comment


                                        Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                        She has no chance you loon! Next out imo, should be able to hear the screams of fury from my gaff.
                                        She is requesting a recount at the minute according to the twitter machine

                                        Comment


                                          Originally posted by mcnugget View Post
                                          Where are the odds for next CC?

                                          Very attractive position now considering the likelihood of another election soon.
                                          Was there when I posted, since taken down, from memory M Ring was 9/4 fav follows by Flannagan , o fearaghail , Deasy.
                                          Last edited by horatio1; 28-02-16, 23:07.

                                          Comment


                                            Originally posted by jack90210 View Post
                                            Can defo see Power calling for a recount if shes close if/when eliminated.
                                            KNEW IT! Shes just not to type to go out quietly is she.

                                            Comment


                                              Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                              She has no chance you loon! Next out imo, should be able to hear the screams of fury from my gaff.
                                              Recount called by Averil. 400 shy of TB. Ding dong the witch is dead. Actually down to 67 full recount at 11am
                                              His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.

                                              Comment


                                                So who the biggest outsider to get a seat?
                                                Go big or go homeless.

                                                Comment


                                                  Originally posted by mdoug View Post
                                                  So who the biggest outsider to get a seat?
                                                  Dunno, doubtful it was too big anyway. Paul Donnelly surely shortest to get chinned anyway.

                                                  Comment


                                                    Originally posted by mcnugget View Post
                                                    Dunno, doubtful it was too big anyway. Paul Donnelly surely shortest to get chinned anyway.
                                                    If Willie Penrose doesn't make it he was 1/25.

                                                    Comment


                                                      Originally posted by horatio1 View Post
                                                      If Willie Penrose doesn't make it he was 1/25.
                                                      Donnelly was 1/100.

                                                      Niamh Smith probably one of the longest priced winners, she was 20/1 when declared a candidate.

                                                      Comment


                                                        ...
                                                        "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                        Comment


                                                          Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                          She made up a lot of votes on the transfers so. Those unstamped ballots will change a lot of things. This could drag on for months, almost as if politicos have no regard for our prediction comp We might have to agree on a solution there.

                                                          Remember her posters around 2012 when living in Howth and used to viscerally dislike them. She was advertising a local meeting about some local tragedies, but her face was 95% of the meeting poster. Seemed like misusing mental health issues in order to promote herself.
                                                          This time she had her posters in different colours to show she was a member of every party. One would be red, another blue etc. quite clever really.
                                                          His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.

                                                          Comment


                                                            Poor counters
                                                            Profit before people.

                                                            Comment


                                                              Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                                                              Poor counters
                                                              It's all overtime.

                                                              Comment


                                                                Rich counters

                                                                Comment


                                                                  Originally posted by Iago View Post
                                                                  I'm on FG >47.5 seats @5/6 for a chunk of change and SF <34.5 @4/5 for a smaller chunk.
                                                                  Some sweat out of a bet that I really thought was a formality pre-election.
                                                                  Join the IPB Fantasy Football League 19/20

                                                                  http://www.irishpokerboards.com/foru...88#post1104188

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    @ mcnuggett , CC betting back up



                                                                    FFwill surely want this as part of any deal to support a minority gov.
                                                                    Last edited by horatio1; 29-02-16, 18:33.

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      Originally posted by horatio1 View Post
                                                                      Try this one
                                                                      Go big or go homeless.

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        Averil's twitter is all class Claiming conspiracies now.
                                                                        Profit before people.

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          this market is a bit mad

                                                                          O'Riordan a shade of odds on to be next Labour leader despite being in a massive dogfight for the last seat in DBN?

                                                                          Kelly is horribly divisive and has lots of enemies. Howlin a decent punt at 4/1 imo...the question is does he want it?

                                                                          edit: Sean Sherlock at 10/1 perhaps, always seems like a solid enough guy and ticks the box of generational change?
                                                                          Last edited by Raoul Duke III; 29-02-16, 21:31.
                                                                          "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                            this market is a bit mad

                                                                            O'Riordan a shade of odds on to be next Labour leader despite being in a massive dogfight for the last seat in DBN?

                                                                            Kelly is horribly divisive and has lots of enemies. Howlin a decent punt at 4/1 imo...the question is does he want it?

                                                                            edit: Sean Sherlock at 10/1 perhaps, always seems like a solid enough guy and ticks the box of generational change?
                                                                            Backed AoR at 11/4 yesterday, agree current odds are madness however.

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              Originally posted by mcnugget View Post
                                                                              Backed AoR at 11/4 yesterday, agree current odds are madness however.
                                                                              tallymen have him losing out for the fifth seat by 38 votes to McGrath
                                                                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                tallymen have him losing out for the fifth seat by 38 votes to McGrath
                                                                                Yeah saw that

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  Joan Burton 8/11 to resign in 2016, evens 2017 or later.

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    Originally posted by horatio1 View Post
                                                                                    Joan Burton 8/11 to resign in 2016, evens 2017 or later.
                                                                                    I'd say she's booking her holidays already. Long, relaxing ones.
                                                                                    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      ...
                                                                                      "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                                        Kelly did get elected as deputy though, so he has some support
                                                                                        only in Nenagh

                                                                                        he is detested in the LP and is marked out as a power-crazed nutter. Mind you, maybe that's exactly what they need.
                                                                                        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          ...
                                                                                          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            ...
                                                                                            Last edited by Hitchhiker's Guide To...; 29-02-16, 22:09.
                                                                                            "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                              I'd say she's booking her holidays already. Long, relaxing ones.
                                                                                              She will get a free one on Mar 17th and then have a lap of honour with the centenary celebrations. Any possibility they will want to hang on in with FG in a minority gov ? For most of them it will be their last term anyway so they may as well ride the gravy train for as long as it lasts.

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                O'Riordan out to 5/2 in the next Labour leader market

                                                                                                Unofficial tallies have him a loser in DBN.
                                                                                                "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                                  O'Riordan out to 5/2 in the next Labour leader market

                                                                                                  Unofficial tallies have him a loser in DBN.
                                                                                                  Would be disappointed with that, thought he was doing a lot to bring progressive drugs policies in particular into the mainstream debate.

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                    Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                                    O'Riordan out to 5/2 in the next Labour leader market

                                                                                                    Unofficial tallies have him a loser in DBN.
                                                                                                    Shame shops weren't open when you pointed out that rick.
                                                                                                    Profit before people.

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                      Sean Sherlock looks about 12 years old. Labour would be even more a disaster if they elected him as leader.
                                                                                                      Last edited by Teddie; 01-03-16, 12:00.

                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                        Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                                                                                                        Shame shops weren't open when you pointed out that rick.
                                                                                                        O'Riordan 18/1 now and gone.

                                                                                                        Sherlock 6s. Kelly evens.
                                                                                                        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                          Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                                          O'Riordan 18/1 now and gone.

                                                                                                          Sherlock 6s. Kelly evens.
                                                                                                          Soc Dems delighted I'd say

                                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                                            Originally posted by Emmet View Post
                                                                                                            Soc Dems delighted I'd say
                                                                                                            They should merge and become the SDLP
                                                                                                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                                              Kelly will either be a great leader or a disaster. Not sure which way it will go.

                                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                                Penrose reportedly 2 votes ahead of Bannon and fresh re-count to commence at 3pm in Longford-Westmeath.

                                                                                                                Burke will still scoop the 3rd seat but Hogan may lose out on the 4th to Penrose/Bannon after transfers.

                                                                                                                The outcome of the 2016 General Election in Longford-Westmeath hangs in the balance this morning amid rumours just two votes separate Fine Gael’s James Bannon and Labour’s Willie Penrose. On a night of high drama in Kenagh last night, a full recount was called first by the Penrose camp a...

                                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                                  Renua 5/1 to contest a General election after 2017. She's said she'll stick with the party and contesnt local elections. Seems like a decent bet.

                                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                                    Originally posted by Teddie View Post
                                                                                                                    Renua 5/1 to contest a General election after 2017. She's said she'll stick with the party and contesnt local elections. Seems like a decent bet.

                                                                                                                    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-...rp_ids=2283525
                                                                                                                    The wilderness is not a space that will sit well with her.

                                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                                      Originally posted by horatio1 View Post
                                                                                                                      The wilderness is not a space that will sit well with her.

                                                                                                                      Two options: I can see her landing a nice European consultancy gig and then going for the local elections and one last crack at the General. Or else sitting back and working on growing the party from the outside. I'd be surprised if she gave up at the first fall.

                                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                                        Originally posted by horatio1 View Post
                                                                                                                        Joan Burton 8/11 to resign in 2016, evens 2017 or later.
                                                                                                                        Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                                                        I'd say she's booking her holidays already. Long, relaxing ones.
                                                                                                                        2016 2/9 now��.

                                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                                          Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                                                          this market is a bit mad

                                                                                                                          O'Riordan a shade of odds on to be next Labour leader despite being in a massive dogfight for the last seat in DBN?

                                                                                                                          Kelly is horribly divisive and has lots of enemies. Howlin a decent punt at 4/1 imo...the question is does he want it?

                                                                                                                          edit: Sean Sherlock at 10/1 perhaps, always seems like a solid enough guy and ticks the box of generational change?
                                                                                                                          6/4 now.
                                                                                                                          "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                                          Comment

                                                                                                                          Working...
                                                                                                                          X