Bump. Let the fevered speculation commence.
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North Tipperary candidate s are spending big money on campaigns compared to there south counterparts, Jackie Cahill pulls a strong farming community with him plus popular local in thurles.
Seamus Healy will be number one in clonmel hands down and surrounding areas but will seriously struggle further afield.
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Originally posted by GimmeabreakWhat happened in Tipp this week that it now looks like 2 X FG (Lowry inc), 2 X FF, 1 X Lab? Has Jackie Cahill done something big down there this past week?"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Teddie View PostWhere do people think the 12 Labour TDs will come from?
Joan Bruton
Aodhán Ó RÃordáin
Brendan Howlin
RóisÃn Shortall
Emmet Stagg
Alex White
Ann Phelan
Knowledge of the country constituencies wouldn't be great.
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Originally posted by Teddie View PostWhere do people think the 12 Labour TDs will come from?
Joan Bruton
Aodhán Ó RÃordáin
Brendan Howlin
RóisÃn Shortall
Emmet Stagg
Alex White
Ann Phelan
Knowledge of the country constituencies wouldn't be great.
Ciara Conway will 100% lose her seat in Waterford anyway
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Originally posted by Teddie View PostWhere do people think the 12 Labour TDs will come from?
Joan Bruton
Aodhán Ó RÃordáin
Brendan Howlin
RóisÃn Shortall
Emmet Stagg
Alex White
Ann Phelan
Knowledge of the country constituencies wouldn't be great.
Roisin Shortall left labour a long time back, has in more recent times set up a new party. (Given that there are at least two months to the election, it is at least possible that she will be relected as a labour td).
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Originally posted by Teddie View PostWhere do people think the 12 Labour TDs will come from?
Joan Bruton
Aodhán Ó RÃordáin
Brendan Howlin
RóisÃn Shortall
Emmet Stagg
Alex White
Ann Phelan
Knowledge of the country constituencies wouldn't be great.
As a general observation, there's not much value in the markets on any incumbent candidates. Could be some value in first-time FF candidates around the country however.
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Originally posted by tipp86 View PostIm pretty sure Mattie McGrath is a cert to be honest.
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Originally posted by KevIRL View PostAnn Phelan with a decent shout in carlow / kk.
Of the two I thought Ferris was the value. Phelan looks likely to be in a battle with two FG candidates for the last seat so is unlikely to get any benefit from the voting pact. FG run 3 in Wicklow, Harris should top the poll with Doyle taking the 4th seat. The other FG will have been eliminated so she should do well on transfers if the voting pact is successful.
Labour got around 16% 1st pref in Wicklow last time . Ferris got 7% , but Labour ran 3 in Wicklow so she might not be far off that 1st pref again. She is the outsider in what looks like a 3 way battle with Billy Timmins (Renua ) and Pat Casey (FF). Timmins won a seat for FG in 2011 and is effectively an independent. With Stephen Donnelly a cert to be elected Timmins could be vulnerable, if he was eliminated first of the 3 she could take it.
I'm surprised Howlin isn't quoted in the next Tánaiste market. Burton looks in trouble ( but if she is they might not get enough seats to warrant getting the Tánaiste gig) and I cant see Enda wanting Kelly for it .
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Originally posted by horatio1 View PostI'm surprised Howlin isn't quoted in the next Tánaiste market. Burton looks in trouble ( but if she is they might not get enough seats to warrant getting the Tánaiste gig) and I cant see Enda wanting Kelly for it ."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostMichael McGrath next Tanaiste isn't the worst bet in the world.
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Originally posted by horatio1 View PostI was looking at both her and Anne Ferris in Wickla price the other day and both were 11/4 . Phelan was cut to 7/4 over the weekend and is now 6/4. Was there a local opinion poll ?
Of the two I thought Ferris was the value. Phelan looks likely to be in a battle with two FG candidates for the last seat so is unlikely to get any benefit from the voting pact. FG run 3 in Wicklow, Harris should top the poll with Doyle taking the 4th seat. The other FG will have been eliminated so she should do well on transfers if the voting pact is successful.
Labour got around 16% 1st pref in Wicklow last time . Ferris got 7% , but Labour ran 3 in Wicklow so she might not be far off that 1st pref again. She is the outsider in what looks like a 3 way battle with Billy Timmins (Renua ) and Pat Casey (FF). Timmins won a seat for FG in 2011 and is effectively an independent. With Stephen Donnelly a cert to be elected Timmins could be vulnerable, if he was eliminated first of the 3 she could take it.
I'm surprised Howlin isn't quoted in the next Tánaiste market. Burton looks in trouble ( but if she is they might not get enough seats to warrant getting the Tánaiste gig) and I cant see Enda wanting Kelly for it .Last edited by AdMMM; 19-01-16, 11:20.
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostHe would actually hold FF together in a coalition, as he has a bit of fight to him. Presumably the wider party is secretly aware that Martin is about as effective as Cowen."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by careca View Postexcept there won't be a Kerry south this time. Kerry one 5 seater. This is the one I want to look at the betting for. Have a sneaky outsider that could do well imo.
I'll have to get onto my local Fianna Fail man again and lay whatever RD3 is baetting on
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Originally posted by Denny Crane View PostMaybe they'll be blinded by the minor amount of power, cars and salary, but FF going into coalition would be madness. My sources told me they (sensibly) want another round of opposition."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Denny Crane View PostMaybe they'll be blinded by the minor amount of power, cars and salary, but FF going into coalition would be madness. My sources told me they (sensibly) want another round of opposition.
RDIII's 10/1 Michael McGrath next Tanaiste looks a tasty bit of valooo considering next government markets...unless he was to get shafted by someone like Hanifin if she was to outperform personally
Anyone else a threat? (I'm ruling out Calleary)Turning millions into thousands
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Originally posted by Teddie View PostWhere do people think the 12 Labour TDs will come from?
Joan Bruton
Aodhán Ó RÃordáin
Brendan Howlin
RóisÃn Shortall
Emmet Stagg
Alex White
Ann Phelan
Knowledge of the country constituencies wouldn't be great.
Willie Penrose 1/25
Brendan Howlin 1/10
Brendan Ryan 1/5
Alan Kelly 1/4
Emmett Stagg 1/3
Joan Burton 1/2
Kevin Humphreys 8/15
Jan O Sullivan 4/7
Mark Wall 4/6
Sean Sherlock 8/11
Although odds on both Burton and O'Sullivan are outsiders to longer odds on shots in the battle for the last seat.
9 constituencies not quoted including O 'Riordans , Kathleen Lynch and Gerald Nash.
It looks like they will need a lot of help from the voting pact to hit 12.
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
The idea that it wouldn't be a Friday, given that FG/Lab vote is much younger than the FF vote, and students / younger workers might need to go back to their constituency, is madness. So that counts out every Thursday. 26th seems like free cash, as 19th is too soon, and accepted wisdom with strong hints from the gov is that its happening in Feb.
Just looked there its 1/9 now. Hope you got on!!Last edited by shano1888; 21-01-16, 13:10.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostLoads of constituency odds up now, I see nothing jumping out at me yet
Michael Lowry 1/50, ffs
There were a few decent bets but they disappeared after a few minutes.
The last constituency to go up was Dublin Bay North, went up earlier today and was taken down after a few minutes.
When it went back up Finian McGrath had gone from 4/7 to 1/25.
Someone obv. lumped on there!
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Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View PostI still think theres a good chance that dobby is Riggers most successful troll account.X can be anything, any number, that is what’s CRAZY about X.
Because X doesn’t roll like that, because X can’t be pinned down!
$ Free Travel Credit with Airbnb $
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Might be a bit of value in Roscommon.
They have Maura Hopkins(2/9) as the favourite for the third seat but Fine Gael are detested after they went back on their pre-election guarantee and closed the A&E in Roscommon Hospital.
Enda Naughten was whipped from the party for voting against them and he is certain to top the poll with Michael Fitzmaurice, Ming's successor, pretty certain to finish just behind him.
Fianna Fail's Eugene Murphy(9/4) is a long time County Councillor who works on local radio and would have a bit of popularity about him. I don't see Claire Kerrane(4/1) garnering enough transfers to have a chance. Shane Curran(6/1) is a former county football star and very well known and popular all over the county. I think there is a real good chance he can snag that last seat for Fianna Fail ahead of Hopkins and Murphy. I think it's likely that one of the FF'ers get that last seat given that there will be very little tranfers to Hopkins as the party is despised and I think that when the lower FF'er gets eliminated that the one left standing will be head of Hopkins.'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick
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'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick
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My outside tip for the constituency is Norma Moriarty FF. She is 5/1 but there could be a bit of value there. Her uncle is Micko Dwyer and her brother in law Maurice Fitzgerald (Kerry GAA legends). They would both be big vote pullers. I'd also expect her to get support from John O'Donoghue (could be a bad thing ) as he is from a neighbouring village. FF would always have had a huge support in Kerry and if they can pull any of that back she might have a sneak.
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Originally posted by Denny Crane View PostHa, you can bet on the election to be in Feb at 1/10, or on the 26th of Feb at 1/10
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politi...rp_ids=2247317"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by eagle eye View Post
Does anyone lose a chunk of votes in South Leitrim, anyone gain big time from Galway vote?
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Originally posted by Denny Crane View PostHa, you can bet on the election to be in Feb at 1/10, or on the 26th of Feb at 1/10
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politi...rp_ids=2247317Turning millions into thousands
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Originally posted by BigDeal View PostAny idea on how the new boundary changes things?
Does anyone lose a chunk of votes in South Leitrim, anyone gain big time from Galway vote?
I'm pretty good at understanding how people think about public figures but I hadn't even looked at this stuff until last night and when I seen the price of Shane Curran I was on immediately. Curran could top the poll on the first count, not certain to get in then but I'd expect him to take that third seat.
The guy had very good sales locally with his autobiography.
From a minor football he has been well known. He took a penalty he wasn't supposed to take and score with the last kick of the game in a Connacht Minor final which caused controversy. He was an outfield player for his local GAA club and played for the county outfield at one stage. Then he went off and played for Athlone Town FC in soccer and moved close to Athlone and started playing for St Brigids GAA club who became the dominant force in Roscommon around that time. He was back on the County Roscommon team then as Goalkeeper for a good few years and won an All-Ireland club title with St Brigids. The guy is also a character, intelligent, witty and pretty much loved by all age groups. I've been told he did a very funny rant on the Sunday Game, I didn't get to see it but those who watched it and know him said he was basically taking the piss Joe Brolly by going completely ott and acting as if he was stressed. Here is an article telling you a good bit about the guy.
Damn you Cake. There I was having a leisurely look at the sports pages on Sunday only to be confronted with a plethora of references to 'St Brigid's veteran goalkeeper, 41-year-old Shane Curran,' after the Roscommon side defeated Crossmaglen Rangers in the All-Ireland semi-final.
What is not written there is that h is a very calm guy and always smiling. If somebody starts ranting at him he will pay attention, smile and wait for his opportunity to win the day.
He really is just an easy sell to the public who want a guy like him to do well.'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick
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Might be worth a gamble, do you anything about the FF party in the constituency?
I heard there was a lot of infighting and bad feeling in FF there, the decision was to run one candidate, the fact Curran was being added to the ticket despite not going forward for selection convention (and according to some not even being a member of the party at the time) seemingly didn't go down well with some .
Might not have the local party behind him and might affect transfers from running mate, could explain why he is 6/1 for what looks like it should be a FF seat.
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Originally posted by BigDeal View PostMight be worth a gamble, do you anything about the FF party in the constituency?
I heard there was a lot of infighting and bad feeling in FF there, the decision was to run one candidate, the fact Curran was being added to the ticket despite not going forward for selection convention (and according to some not even being a member of the party at the time) seemingly didn't go down well with some .
Might not have the local party behind him and might affect transfers from running mate, could explain why he is 6/1 for what looks like it should be a FF seat.
Connaughton was a candidate in the by-election to replace Ming and he topped the poll on the first count but Ming's chosen one came back and won the seat.'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostMy Labour bet on here looks to be in the bag, absent a phenomenal vote-transfer achievement FG -> Lab. Not so sure about having the upside on FF though. They're absolutely shocking."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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