Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Two hands from a $1k Monday satellite ticket bubble on FTP

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    Two hands from a $1k Monday satellite ticket bubble on FTP

    Posted this on the old site before realizing what had happened so will paste here...

    Buy-in $109, top 9 win a ticket worth $1060 and the money bubble has burst with 10th receiving $160. Mostly good regs remaining and low M's...

    Cant remember exact stack sizes on the other table but they were much more spread out with the CL having ~38k and a shorty in MP(2hands away from BB hitting him) with ~4.5k. Not sure reads matter too much here but he is a winning reg, had 80 hands on him playing 20/16 and this was the 3rd time he'd shoved utg with a similar M in maybe 5 orbits...

    No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 500/1000 Blinds (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    MP (t6417)
    Hero (Button) (t12030)
    SB (t31339)
    BB (t9573)
    UTG (t9500)

    Hero's M: 8.02

    Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, 10
    UTG bets t9375, 1 fold, Hero?


    I think this next hand is standard enough to call and aim to check down but need reassurance one way or the other. Was confident that BB would "play ball" but with my stack size I was hesitant. 2 shorties on other table with ~5k...

    Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 500/1000 Blinds 125 Ante (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    Button (t2292)
    Hero (SB) (t10530)
    BB (t34589)
    UTG (t13948)
    MP (t7500)

    Hero's M:
    4.96

    Preflop:
    Hero is SB with 4, 9
    2 folds,
    Button bets t2167 (All-In), Hero?


    Thoughts appreciated!
    It's all an illusion

    #2
    first hand is a call imo

    second hand is a fold. you don't want to triple him up and you can't really afford to loose the chips, after all you only have 94o you will hit the flop roughly 30% of the time and if he has an over pair you are dead in the water and relying on the bb hand so why bother in the first place. i do believe in ganging up on the small fella but no point unless you have reasonable cards or the call involves less than 10% of your chips or he pushes from utg and the whole table calls him

    just my thoughts but i could br completley wrong



    "Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"

    Comment


      #3
      Second hand is interesting. Messing around with pokerstove I think you probably increase his chances of being knocked out when you call and it gets checked down by about 15%

      Its costing you 1667 of 10530. I guess the question would be is that 15% worth more than those chips.

      So it would be something like the % chance of you getting a ticket based on your current stack to the % chance if you call and lose. Surely this wouldn't be more than 15% which would make it a call.

      /random jibbering

      Opr

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by Opr View Post
        Second hand is interesting. Messing around with pokerstove I think you probably increase his chances of being knocked out when you call and it gets checked down by about 15%

        Its costing you 1667 of 10530. I guess the question would be is that 15% worth more than those chips.

        So it would be something like the % chance of you getting a ticket based on your current stack to the % chance if you call and lose. Surely this wouldn't be more than 15% which would make it a call.

        /random jibbering

        Opr



        calling and loosing reduces heros stack to 8.5k not really a big problem yet
        hero calling and bb calling and villian winning increases his stack to 6500

        surely it would be better for sb to fold and if villian wins he now only has 5k he is still the small stack and under pressure to push with weaker hands. leave the big stacks do the busting at this stage if we start calling of all our chips with crap cards when the small stack pushes just "cos its the right thing to do" or "we got the correct pot odds" then pretty soon we are the small stack,

        or is this the wrong thinking given that it dosn't matter where we finish once we get the ticket
        Last edited by Angry-Ball; 26-01-10, 01:45.



        "Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"

        Comment


          #5
          I fold the first hand. I don't see the need for you to call off such a large percentage of your chips as you're in a pretty good position to take down a ticket. This is however instinctive rather than a mathematical analysis. I'd reckon it's close, but a fold nonetheless.

          I really don't want to triple up the shortie in hand 2. How did he get shortstacked? Did he lose a hand in the blinds, or did he allow the blinds go through him?

          Comment


            #6
            I am not suggesting we call based on anything other than that which gives us the best chance of getting a ticket.

            Think of it this way. These are just made up figures. In both cases the difference in his chip stack would be factored into your % chance of winning a ticket based on if you had called or not.

            We call 1500 chips which increases our chances of getting a ticket by 15%
            Lets say the remaining 8500 % chance of getting a ticket is now 83%

            We fold reducing the % of times we get a ticket by 15%
            Lets say with 10000 our % chance of getting a ticket is 91%

            Which of those would be the correct play and my initial reaction is that the first would work out better overall but I have no desire to try and work it out.

            I am sure someone who plays those Double up SnG's or lots of satellites could say which would be better.

            Opr

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by AdMMM View Post
              I fold the first hand. I don't see the need for you to call off such a large percentage of your chips as you're in a pretty good position to take down a ticket. This is however instinctive rather than a mathematical analysis. I'd reckon it's close, but a fold nonetheless.

              I really don't want to triple up the shortie in hand 2. How did he get shortstacked? Did he lose a hand in the blinds, or did he allow the blinds go through him?
              This pretty much
              ''Oh my god, I'm dropping shit like a pigeon
              I hope you're listening, smacking babies at their christening''

              Comment


                #8
                I'd definitely fold hand 1 anyway.

                Hand 2 is something that I'd be interested in, but not sure in, so I've made an estimate, but I'd leave it for the likes of doke to confirm.

                I'll assume BTN shoves 32.4% of the time, and BB calls 100% of the time.

                If we fold:

                39.85% of the time shortie loses and we have a ticket, and an EV of 1 ticket.

                60.15% of the time shortie wins and we have a $EV of .932 tickets.

                This gives an expected $EV of folding of .959098 tickets.


                If we call:

                We can sum together the times that either us or BB win, cos nobody cares what happens as long as btn loses.

                53.15% of the time shortie loses, and we have an EV of 1 ticket.

                46.85% of the time shortie wins and we have a $EV of .895 ticket.

                This gives the EV of calling as .9508075 tickets.


                This would suggest that folding is better.
                Foldaramus et foldarabimus

                Comment


                  #9
                  firstly, presume u mean 8 seats as u said 9 seats and 10th just got paid, yet tourney still ongoing.
                  the 1st hand is an absolutely cast iron fold.
                  anyone who is even considering calling here knows absolutely nothing about playing the bubble of a sattelite tournament.
                  when u are midfield in chips, calling off 90% of your chips in a spot where theres any chance the op even has 1 over, is just wrong, as your bubble factor here is as high as it can possibly get.
                  basically, as 8 out of 9 get a seat, and u are no where near shortest, u will get a seat way more than 80% of the time with a fold, so even if villian shows u 99 , its prob still a fold, let alone if he has u beat, which he easily can here.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Yeah hand one is an insta fold and i am folding everything except AA,

                    with more chips i may call but this is a really crap hand so just fold
                    http://drjff.blogspot.com/

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by Norwicfanrob View Post
                      firstly, presume u mean 8 seats as u said 9 seats and 10th just got paid, yet tourney still ongoing.
                      the 1st hand is an absolutely cast iron fold.
                      anyone who is even considering calling here knows absolutely nothing about playing the bubble of a sattelite tournament.
                      when u are midfield in chips, calling off 90% of your chips in a spot where theres any chance the op even has 1 over, is just wrong, as your bubble factor here is as high as it can possibly get.
                      basically, as 8 out of 9 get a seat, and u are no where near shortest, u will get a seat way more than 80% of the time with a fold, so even if villian shows u 99 , its prob still a fold, let alone if he has u beat, which he easily can here.
                      I cant believe the REAL Rob would be so bad at grammer/spelling and also get his username wrong?

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by Hyzepher View Post
                        I cant believe the REAL Rob would be so bad at grammer/spelling and also get his username wrong?
                        New site... must refrain.... ALFHALSDALKGJBALHAEGF.
                        Foldaramus et foldarabimus

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by AdMMM View Post
                          How did he get shortstacked? Did he lose a hand in the blinds, or did he allow the blinds go through him?
                          Blinds went through him but I don't think that matters too much because other players, mainly the big-stack, were steeling his shoves. With his stack size and other factors he's generally shoving V wide here.

                          Originally posted by Norwicfanrob View Post
                          firstly, presume u mean 8 seats as u said 9 seats and 10th just got paid, yet tourney still ongoing.
                          Had a feeling that wasn't too clear after rereading the op but didn't bother editing...there were 10 players remaining; top 9 receiving ticket and 10th $160.

                          Cheers for the responses and n1 for the math homework Tommy! I'm still in 2 minds about hand 2 tbh. I don't think either decision is dramatically incorrect but am sure there is a 100% correct action.

                          fwiw...

                          Hand 1: I folded explaining to a lad on msn "I think I need QQ+ but don't even like calling with QQ there". He didn't fully agree so said I'd post.
                          Hand 2: I tanked, called and checked down. IDK, I think to be worked out properly all stacks from both tables are necessary as it comes down to math n nout else.
                          It's all an illusion

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by AdMMM View Post
                            I fold the first hand. I don't see the need for you to call off such a large percentage of your chips as you're in a pretty good position to take down a ticket. This is however instinctive rather than a mathematical analysis. I'd reckon it's close, but a fold nonetheless.
                            This and maybe JJ is a fold too... maybe even QQ.. do you want to get a ticket or have lots of chips? I havent run it in SNGWiz but I am certain TT is a fold, not sure about QQ
                            Buy and Sell bitcoin in Ireland with Bitireland Broker Ltd.
                            www.bitireland.ie

                            Comment


                              #15
                              1 is an insta fist pump fold for me too. Even with your M at only 5.7 which I make it rather than the 8.0 that is stated.

                              2 is very close but I think I need to be nearer M 10 to be calling this
                              Turning millions into thousands

                              Comment


                                #16
                                1) never
                                2) both are fine

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Just in relation to the second hand is the utility of survival a factor that should be considered ?

                                  What I mean by that is if we choose to call we increase the chances of an immediate chance of a ticket without immediate risk to our tournament survival. We could end up getting our stack in some ridiculous situation like set over set almost drawing dead after folding ?

                                  Opr

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Just to say I doubt having seen TG's figures that it makes much odd's on folding or calling. I just think its a pretty fun/interesting problem.

                                    Opr

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by bops View Post
                                      1) never
                                      2) both are fine
                                      See that's what I was thinking re: hand two and I'd imagine the correct decision is only ever apparent in post-hand analysis where we have the time to factor in stack sizes on other tables, position of short stacks in relation to blinds etc.

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by 72over View Post

                                        Hand 1: I folded explaining to a lad on msn "I think I need QQ+ but don't even like calling with QQ there". He didn't fully agree so said I'd post.
                                        Hand 2: I tanked, called and checked down. IDK, I think to be worked out properly all stacks from both tables are necessary as it comes down to math n nout else.
                                        Yeah I'd made assumptions about the other stacks that I can't quite remember. I think I had one big stack as suggested from hand 1, and 2 midstacks on top of the two 5k stacks and the stacks on your table.

                                        Those stack assumptions is how I generated the ICM guesses. I assumed that btn shoves 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q8s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,A2o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo , which might be a little narrow, and that the BB will call with ATC, never raise, and always check it down (I think that assumption is OK.)

                                        Given those assumptions, I'd call with anything that leaves btn with less than 39% equity which would be 44+, Ax, Kx, Qx, Tx, 95o+, 9xs, 86o+, 85s+. So 94o seems to be just below my borderline. I'm a little surprised that 22-33 are folds, and that 95o is a call, while 67s isn't, but thats what the numbers tell me.

                                        Obv if you assume he shoves wider than this then you can call a little wider again.
                                        Foldaramus et foldarabimus

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Opr View Post
                                          We could end up getting our stack in some ridiculous situation like set over set almost drawing dead after folding ?
                                          What do you mean? I don't follow this bit.

                                          But yeah its only a very small difference between calling and folding, and it would hinge on how wide btns range is, cos thats the toughest variable to guess. Calling might be of small benefit, and might be a small mistake. I dunno, I'd leave guessing villain's range to someone more experienced in these formats like doke, cos I'm sure the range I gave was wrong one way or another.

                                          Originally posted by AdMMM View Post
                                          See that's what I was thinking re: hand two and I'd imagine the correct decision is only ever apparent in post-hand analysis where we have the time to factor in stack sizes on other tables, position of short stacks in relation to blinds etc.
                                          Ya but the more of these post-hand analyses that we do, the better our decisions will become. I've never bothered doing this situation before, and I know I should, cos I have been in situations like this before and not known what to do and I'm sure I will be again. Just saying that I reckon doing these sums or following the results is a good help to your game. Again, I'd leave it to someone more experienced to give really good answers on this sorta stuff.
                                          Foldaramus et foldarabimus

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by TommyGunne View Post
                                            What do you mean? I don't follow this bit.
                                            I am more trying to get at that surely other things that an ICM calc does show factor into this call/fold.

                                            For example by calling we give the other 8 players in the field an extra 15% chance of getting a ticket in this situation while we are the only ones affected adversely chip wise. While if I don't call I now have the same chance as everyone else of getting a ticket and it doesn't affect me chip wise. I don't see how this doesn't change the overall EV of the situation in relation to me.

                                            Basically the dynamic is strange as everything you do not only affects your chances but the rest of the tables.

                                            I have no idea if that makes sense as I haven't looked at ICM or these situations in detail before.

                                            Opr

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Opr View Post
                                              I am more trying to get at that surely other things that an ICM calc does show factor into this call/fold.

                                              For example by calling we give the other 8 players in the field an extra 15% chance of getting a ticket in this situation while we are the only ones affected adversely chip wise. While if I don't call I now have the same chance as everyone else of getting a ticket and it doesn't affect me chip wise. I don't see how this doesn't change the overall EV of the situation in relation to me.

                                              Basically the dynamic is strange as everything you do not only affects your chances but the rest of the tables.

                                              I have no idea if that makes sense as I haven't looked at ICM or these situations in detail before.

                                              Opr
                                              Every decision you take in a tournament affects not only your own $EV but every single other person in the tournament's. They obv always want you to put as many chips as possible into the pot when they're not involved.

                                              You're not really interested in everyone else's $EV though, just your own, and you want to maximise that. The calcs that I did took into account both your possible actions and the % of times you get a ticket given that each outcome happens. That it is better for the rest of the table if you call is irrelevant.

                                              I feel like I'm missing the point though....
                                              Foldaramus et foldarabimus

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                Yeah but in a normal tournament we are playing to win in this scenario if you ignore the small bubble payout its more or less a Double or Nothing SnG and we are playing to survive.

                                                ICM is not taking into account that I am just leaving the blinds. Where the smaller stacks are in relation to the blinds. How big the blinds are in relation to the stacks on the table. How often my current stack survives two rounds of the table versus if I call etc etc

                                                Opr

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  Hadnd 1 is a fold, always, ignore anyone that said it was a call,

                                                  Originally posted by AdMMM View Post
                                                  I really don't want to triple up the shortie in hand 2. How did he get shortstacked? Did he lose a hand in the blinds, or did he allow the blinds go through him?
                                                  This was mentioned in a few posts, and is a bit short sighted.

                                                  He is always getting a BB call here, and we already have 500 in. So we're tripling him up by calling. It's a 5.1k pot if we fold, 6.9k if we call.

                                                  Originally posted by TommyGunne View Post

                                                  60.15% of the time shortie wins and we have a $EV of .932 tickets.

                                                  This gives an expected $EV of folding of .959098 tickets.


                                                  If we call:

                                                  This gives the EV of calling as .9508075 tickets.


                                                  This would suggest that folding is better.
                                                  I think the two values are so close, that you can't pick call over fold and vice versa. And because you made assumptions on ranges and stack sizes, a slight change could tip it slightly to the other side.

                                                  From a purely ICM point of view, folding and calling are the same. However;


                                                  Originally posted by Opr View Post
                                                  ICM is not taking into account that I am just leaving the blinds. Where the smaller stacks are in relation to the blinds. How big the blinds are in relation to the stacks on the table. How often my current stack survives two rounds of the table versus if I call etc etc
                                                  ICM is just an indicator for some of the reasons listed above. And it kinda falls apart and very low M values. Due to the fact that it will eventually always suggest a fold, this is a flaw and the correct option is normally slightly more aggressive.

                                                  In hand 2 I call. Even though its the same either way, i prefer to take the aggressive approach. Also, there are no shorties on this table in the blinds soon, and we will likely have to play another few hands until (at the very least) the button is in the blinds again. The antes will further reduce our EV, which ICM also ignores, and should encourage the aggressive option.
                                                  Our position is pretty poor at the table, and will often face a push from the two shorties on our BB, which will normally be a fold. Pretty soon were in a bad sport.

                                                  So calling and folding makes no difference right now, but, imo, calling is better as its going to get worse very quickly and we should do anything we can to end it sooner.

                                                  Comment

                                                  Working...
                                                  X