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Old 20-08-17, 18:13   #1
aidankk
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Day 1 30/30 Squeeze

I seem to be the only one bothering to do this lately but the answers on the other couple of questions were well worth the post

Near enough the end of day 1 on Saturday blinds are 1k2k 300 ante.

UTG Loose enough player limps about 50k, i have QhJh next to act and limp along have around 55k (I know I know but there had been enough pots that would get around 5 ways to make this worthwhile). If there is a raise UTG will call and so will I.

Folds around to Fintan Gavin (about 70k) in the Big Blind who makes it 9k. (my mind i made up now)!. UTG player calls and i ship. To me it seems obvious that Fintans range is wide enough and i can more or less discount the utg player (who most of the time would have a small pair or something.)

It seems a fairly obvious squeeze to my mind with that hand, but i showed and they seemed somewhat surprised that i would ship there. (That said i would do this kind of thing regular enough but this table hadn't seen much other than big hands in the very few i played). I'm not entirely sure that they would have any idea that i'm anything than a reasonably tight old lad.

UTG took ages to fold with Kh10h he said. Fintan said he had A9.

I'm struggling to see the negative in the ship. You'd have to think i'm only getting 1 caller at most and the free money in the pot and my hand give me plenty of equity regardless.

I'm well aware that limping is not something that i should be doing but its hard to knock that out of my game completely.
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Old 20-08-17, 18:25   #2
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Only negative I see is from showing.
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Old 20-08-17, 19:18   #3
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Why not just raise the utg limper yourself? Its very hard for anyone to give advice in these kind of spots because although it might be ok in a vacuum, in practice it is going to be impossible to fit it in to any sort of balanced gameplan, so you end up being open to be exploited pretty heavily. For it to be +chip EV you need your opponents to play pretty bad, you need them to raise multiple limpers with hands that can't stand a 3bet - it worked out now but if Fintan had AQ+ you would be in pretty bad trouble and have no way to get out of the hand.

By your logic "You'd have to think i'm only getting 1 caller at most and the free money in the pot and my hand give me plenty of equity regardless." you would never ever fold QJs preflop. Its no where near as good a hand for this type of situation as AKo

Code:
Hold'em Simulation ? 
2,219,145,984 trials (Exhaustive)
Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
KA	53.84%	1,059,026,844	271,621,608
8%	46.16%	888,497,532	271,621,608
Edit  Link  2+2  Deuces Cracked  LeggoPoker 
Hold'em Simulation ? 
609,580,224 trials (Exhaustive)
Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
QxJx	35.47%	213,583,284	5,237,128
8%	64.53%	390,759,812	5,237,128
Edit  Link  2+2  Deuces Cracked  LeggoPoker
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Old 21-08-17, 15:33   #4
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I quite like the shove but only if your table image is as tight as described and the fact BB can probably only call the top of his range (prob 10s+ AQ+)and utg is unlikely to have a hand to call(pretty much small-medium pairs + suited connectors/broadways). your stack size is pretty good for making this move v the BB and even if he has a relatively strong like 10s JJs or AQ hand its no snap call.
The only downside i see is some players will be very suspect of you limping after an utg limp and correctly call lighter. Also i would not have shown it let them think you had a premium
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Old 21-08-17, 16:04   #5
aidankk
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nuttkickker View Post
I quite like the shove but only if your table image is as tight as described and the fact BB can probably only call the top of his range (prob 10s+ AQ+)and utg is unlikely to have a hand to call(pretty much small-medium pairs + suited connectors/broadways). your stack size is pretty good for making this move v the BB and even if he has a relatively strong like 10s JJs or AQ hand its no snap call.
The only downside i see is some players will be very suspect of you limping after an utg limp and correctly call lighter. Also i would not have shown it let them think you had a premium
It might be the only time since i started playing poker that my image cold have been reasonably tight or even normal. I probably play by feel and somewhat expected a raise from bb, and my mind was made up (which i wont change unless something silly happens from UTG)

That fact that this was probably a tough enough table for an 80 tournament, might have contributed to the fact i hadn't been doing my usual spewing chips all over the shop, leading to a tighter image.

I probably agree that it isn't the easiest call with AQ and that indicated huge fold equity.

That said Fintan (BB) made a huge call of an all in not that much later and was right with AQ i think, so with the benefit of hindsight it was a bit more risky than it felt at the time.

Anyway great tourney for the money.
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Old 21-08-17, 18:28   #6
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I can't say I have messed with it but surely a spot like this is completely solved in PioSOLVER?

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Old 25-08-17, 17:44   #7
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No this is the opposite of a hand that could a solver would take. Solvers only work in hu spots and I doubt they would ever recommend getting into a situation like that in any case.
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Old 26-08-17, 13:42   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hectorjelly View Post
No this is the opposite of a hand that could a solver would take. Solvers only work in hu spots and I doubt they would ever recommend getting into a situation like that in any case.
I downloaded the free version of pioSolver to have a look. This looks exactly the type of spot it could solve pretty easily. It takes into account dead money in the pot and you can make it essentially a heads up spot when it gets back to the OP by adjusting ranges. So at that point you have a fairly easy decision tree. Shove/Call/Fold. Doesn't the solver just run millions of simulations from this point to determine where the most money is being made against the villians range? They recommend plays based on the decision tree you present and not what is optimal before that although it will also tell you the GTO play at the the various other points in your decision tree.

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Old 26-08-17, 17:25   #9
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I was reading some of the pioSolver hand analysis that I could find. There isn't much about (unless you join a training site) as I guess people are much more guarded than back in the day with giving advice given how tough the games are these days but poker hand analysis is a whole other world these days.

Example

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