Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Winter all weather racing log

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    Winter all weather racing log

    Since sport betting logs seem to be the in thing at the moment, I've decided to keep a log of my all weather bets over the winter months. Majority of bets will be from Southwell but will throw in the odd few from Lingfield, Kempton and Wolverhampton too. Will post bets late at night or early in morning to try get max value and beat that pesky Hugh Taylor as he loves his southwell tipping too. Starting with a standard 100 points bank, and bets will range from .5 being min stake to 5 max. There'll be plenty of big priced tips so expect a fair amount of varience.

    I'll get the ball rolling with one in the 16.10 at Wolverhampton tomorrow, a 17 furlong class 5 handicap. Think the fav is one for taking on here. Up in class after a couple turf wins, now back on the AW where he hasn't won in 10 efforts thus far. Resplendent Ace imo has a touch of value at 10/1. All of his 10 career wins have come on the all weather. Has been quite inconsistant throughout his career, and capable of running a real stinker, but also capable of returning to winning form on any day, so wouldn't be too disheartend by his poor run lto. He's won both races he's ran at Wolver over 17f though and at this level one of those times too. Not that well handicapped but has won off higher than 64 in the past and this is a weak race even by class 5 standards imo.

    16.10 Wolverhampton: Resplendent Ace .5 points win@ 10/1 (WH)

    Remaining Bank:99.5 points
    Profit before people.

    #2
    GL - think i'll follow for fun on my Boyles a/c.

    Might differ bet sizes than yourself a bit.

    No prices up yet on Boyles for 2mrw.


    Edit -

    5pts e/w on Resplendent Ace - 4.10
    5pts e/w on Ensnare - 5.40


    Also-
    2.5pts e/w on Calypso Queen - 3.45 (NA)
    10pts e/w on Roman Strait - 5.10 (BCB)
    45pts win on Wings of Icarus - 4.00
    10pt win Double on above two.
    Last edited by Dice75; 14-11-11, 15:11. Reason: Adding in Bets

    Comment


      #3
      best of luck with this,will you be keeping a eye on the a/w in dundalk,for the fundalk friday meetings?
      Mattie McGrath wanna-be

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
        best of luck with this,will you be keeping a eye on the a/w in dundalk,for the fundalk friday meetings?
        Nah don't particularly like the Irish way of classing races, makes it a lot tougher imo. Also the programme I use for stats doesn't include Dundalk so don't have much in depth info on the track.
        Profit before people.

        Comment


          #5
          Just one other 1pt selection at Wolverhampton this evening in the 17.40 race. Ensnare has to be one of the most obvious plot horses you're likely to see. He had been held up at the back of fields race after race giving little effort and then boom they get him down to a mark of 55 and suddenly he's been ridden very much prominently and goes in very easily at Wolverhampton last time out. Handicapper has given him a stiff enough rise for that but they got him so low in the weights that a win off 63 isn't beyond him if trainers decide to have another bash again today. Previous form of stable shows they like to go for 2 in a row so hopeful. Goes well fresh too. Maybe one for in running betting to see whether they're holding him up or have him near the front but he's worth a point at 5/1.

          17.40 Wolver Ensnare 1pt win (5/1)

          Remaining bank 98.5
          Profit before people.

          Comment


            #6
            Best of luck with this dude.

            Comment


              #7
              Resplendent Ace beaten by a neck into second

              Ensnare's very neg on betfair which is not a good sign for that one.
              Profit before people.

              Comment


                #8
                Yeah never stood a chance once layers were out in force. Worth following the money on that one in future, extremely bent.

                ************************************************** *************************

                One selection for Southwell tomorrow. Not the greatest betting card tbh.

                The one that catches my eye is Bountiful Catch in the class 6 nursery at 13.20 @7/1. Looked a poor horse until his run at Southwell last week. Finished 2 1/2 length third in a class 5 nursery. Ran very green early in that race and was pulling hard but he responded very well to pressure in the final couple of furlongs and looked to really enjoy the fibresand surface.The horse that finished 2nd in that race was Mount Mcloed and he's the 10/3 favorite for tomorrows race. Mount Mcloed has been put up 3lbs for that effort whereas Bountiful Catch's mark is reduced by 4lbs, so he effectively has a 7lbs advantage over a horse that he only finished a length and a half behind of, and couple that with the fact Bountiful Catch probably would have beaten him if he didn't waste so much energy early before settling.

                13.20 Southwell Bountiful Catch 1.5 points e/w @7/1

                Remaining bank 95.5 points

                May add another selection when all prices are in.
                Last edited by The Situation; 14-11-11, 19:23.
                Profit before people.

                Comment


                  #9
                  2nd and final selection comes from the 14.50 at Southwell, a class 6 sellar. Double Duchess may be seen a slightly speculative selection based on recent runs but has shown more than enough ability earlier in the year on this course to warrant a small punt at current price. Won her previous sellar back in Jan here by 4 1/2 lengths, then followed that up with two very good effort in handicaps here, winning one and finishing 2nd in the other under a penalty. Stables been doing alright this month so hopeful of a return to form droping back to sellar company here.

                  14.50 Southwell Double Duchess .5pt e/w @16/1

                  Remaining bank 94.5
                  Last edited by The Situation; 15-11-11, 09:23.
                  Profit before people.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    20pts e/w - Bountiful Catch
                    5 pts e/w - Double Duchess

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Yesterdays results-

                      Bountiful catch 4th
                      Double Duchess 3rd +2.5pts

                      Current bank :97 pts

                      Haven't got a chance to look at today's cards yet. Might get a selection in from Kemptons evening card later.
                      Profit before people.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Decent selections recently, good stuff

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Just one small e/w selection from the final race at Kempton this evening, a class 4 conditional event. Brave echo has reasonable appeal at 16/1. Has always looked a far superior horse on polytrack than on the turf, hense his rating of 103, compared to his previous turf rating of 83. Won a similar conditions event here last January beating some decent sorts in fairly classy style, and he'll have to do the same today as the race isn't weak by any means. Negatives is that he hasn't exactly ran too well after a few months break, and he's giving weight to all rivals here. J-P Guillambert does travel to Kempton just for this one ride though and as long as it stays 8 runners we're getting ultimate e/w value.

                          19.20 Kempton Brave echo .5pts ew @16/1

                          Remaining bank 96 pts.
                          Profit before people.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            know anything about chorister sport in the 12.50 lingfield,into 6/1 now from 16s this morning.poor looking form tho http://oddschecker.sportinglife.com/...592896,00.html

                            Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                            Comment


                              #15
                              No generally don't play in maidens, apart from laying the odd short one. Trainer/sire have a good record at lingfield so wouldn't be surprised if he goes in even after poor first run but I wouldn't be backing now after big gamble.
                              Profit before people.

                              Comment


                                #16
                                oh dear just put a score on insurebet 3 places @ 5/2(degen now, cuteness to follow)

                                just failed by a nose
                                Last edited by amberleaf; 16-11-11, 12:57.
                                Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  best of luck with this might start following this daily if ya start winning..
                                  https://twitter.com/#!/TedCullinane1

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Meh 5th. Nothing standing out tomorrow so should be back on Friday although nothing major until the next Southwell which is not until next Tuesday.
                                    Profit before people.

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Right time to get this thing in the green

                                      First selection is the one I'm most bullish about thus far. Comes from the 17.15 race from Wolverhampton tomorrow, a class 5 handicap over 14 furlongs. Appeal is a nicely bred filly of Mark Prescotts, she made her handicap bow at Lingfield last week off a mark of 63 in an class 5 apprentice handicap, had a very inexperienced jockey on board who rode her very wide throughout, meant she had a clear run but covered a lot more ground than necessary. Anyway she went on and won the race handily enough showing a decent turn of foot on the final corner to break away from rivals. Because this was an apprentice race she's running off the same mark of 63 tomorrow, Shane Donahoe comes in for the ride so will give a more experienced ride. Would be very disappointed if this one gets beat.

                                      17.15 Wolverhampton Appeal 4pts @6/4


                                      Next one comes from the 17.35 at Kempton a 6 furlong class 4 handicap, just a small e/w shot with New Leyf. First run for new stable tomorrow. Will need a career best run to win off 85 but if he's is going to do this anywhere it's Kempton. Of his 6 runs at the tracks he's won 3 and been 2nd twice, has won off 84 here, so its not a drastic improvement needed. He drops back to 6 furlongs which I think is his ideal distance and has the highest speed figures in this race. Has the perfect draw in stall one, and I was pleased to see Steve Drowne has been booked for the ride as he's won on him several times in the past. A few front runners in the race so should be a strong pace. Small stable but they've had a few winners recently.

                                      !7.35 Kempton New Leyf .75pts ew @8/1(wh)

                                      remaining bank 90.5 (5.5 in running)
                                      Last edited by The Situation; 17-11-11, 18:19. Reason: addition fail
                                      Profit before people.

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        ship ship nice call on appeal.
                                        https://twitter.com/#!/TedCullinane1

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          Almost situation, good selections.

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Unlucky with the second one beat in a photo still not bad from the 2 races.

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Decent day, Appeal did the business as expected. Might go in on her again next time price dependent obv, but think she's still a progressive sort. New leaf just beaten by a neck, valiant effort all the same. Gonna be hard for him to win again in the near future as he'll likely be put up a few lbs for that, and unlikely to have everything in his favour like today.

                                              Appeal returned at 13/8 so yields +10.5pts
                                              New leaf's 2nd returned +2.25pts

                                              Current bank 103.25

                                              Haven't looked at tomorrow's card yet, may or may not get time tomorrow morning.
                                              Profit before people.

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                One selection so far today and it come from the 19.20 race at Wolverhampton, a class 6 claimer. Dialogue is the horse of interest. Quite the strong race with plenty of decent horses stepping down from higher level to take their chance in the claimer. Dialogue has been ultra consistant on the all weather winning his four races to date on the polytrack, a couple of handicaps up to class 4, a conditional event and a claimer here lto. Has won all three events races here too, twice over 9 furlongs and once over 7, hard to tell what his best distance is but looked comfortable over both. Today's race is 9 furlongs. On paper this looks like his toughest test to date running against a few supposed classier types. Pandragon is the favourite, has been running in class 2 events, not particularly exceling though. He has won 3/4 all weather runs himself but they've all been at Southwell, a very different surface, and one were his trainer Brian Ellison really has a fantastic record, but his record at Wovler is very poor in comparison. Couple of other nice types in the race too but nothing that Dialogue should be outclassed by imo on his home turf so to speak.



                                                19.20 Wolverhampton Dialogue 2pts @ 9/2 (SJ)

                                                Remaining bank 101.25
                                                Profit before people.

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  ^^^loser.

                                                  No all weather fixtures yesterday or today hence lack of selections, Kempton did slowroll me today but alas it was a jumps card. Southwell tomorrow so should be back with selections tonight/2moro morning.

                                                  Bank 101.25
                                                  Profit before people.

                                                  Comment


                                                    #26
                                                    First selection tomorrow come from 13.10 race at Southwell, a 6 furlong class 4 handicap. Mottley Crew is the one of interest here imo. In excellent form currently and I think hes shown his best form on the fibresand. Won here over course and distance in a good time back in March. His next run at Southwell was in a 5 furlong last week. He lost that by a length to a Richard Fahey horse, but they both pulled a fair bit away from rivals and the time was very quick so imo was an above average race in terms of strength. Handicap mark wasn't put up at all for that run so I reckon he's really well handicapped on both of his runs at Southwell and theres a good bit of value at 9/2.

                                                    13.10 Southwell Mottley Crew 2.5pts win
                                                    Profit before people.

                                                    Comment


                                                      #27
                                                      2nd and final selection comes from the 12.20 race at Southwell, also a class 4 handicap. Il battista is very much a Southwell horse, rubbish everywhere else but seems to flourish on this surface. Has two wins and two 2nds from his 4 runs here to date. They like to run him prominately which is always a good tactic here so expect him to be among the leaders early. Seb Sanders booked for the ride, a jockey who has a very good strike rate at the track. Put up 4lbs for his win in class 5 race lto, don't think he's fantastically well in at the weights but still think a win off this mark at his fav track is quite possible.

                                                      12.20 Southwell Il battista 2pts win@ 9/2

                                                      Remaining Bank 96.75pts
                                                      pts in running 4.5pts
                                                      Profit before people.

                                                      Comment


                                                        #28
                                                        Il Battista 3rd. Broke poorly and never easy to make up lost ground at SW. Winner prob too good though on fibresand debut.

                                                        Mottley Crew won by ~3 lengths. Very impressive run. +13.75

                                                        Current bank 110.5 pts
                                                        Profit before people.

                                                        Comment


                                                          #29
                                                          Nice one sitch got €60 on him to help claw back some of the last few weeks' losses!!

                                                          Comment


                                                            #30
                                                            Just one runner tomorrow from the 18.35 race at Kempton

                                                            This is a listed stakes over a mile. Was keen to take on fav clinical in this race, a filly whose who back to back listed races on the all weather but just against fillies and mares, she's taking on all types today where she hasn't faired so well in the past. The 2nd fav is Riggins who won the race last year, also won a race at Lingfield recently, but I thought my selection Loyalty was a real eyecatcher on that day. Finished a length behind in third that day but race was a little messy, Loyalty was stuck at the back with little space, and had a few collisions which didn't help momentum. He stuck on very well for pressure in the home straight though, which makes me think he may have won if given a more prominent ride or if it was less clustered when he was making his move for the post. He has adopted front running tactics successfully in the past, as well as winning after being held up, winning form at Kempton too so surface isn't a worry. This is officially the best race he's run in but imo has been progressing hugely last few runs so don't think this is beyond him.


                                                            19.35 Kempton Loyalty 1pt ew @9/1 (pp)

                                                            Remaining bank 108.5 pts
                                                            Pts in running 2pts
                                                            Last edited by The Situation; 23-11-11, 11:33. Reason: Price mistake
                                                            Profit before people.

                                                            Comment


                                                              #31
                                                              any opinion on loyal royal,13.05 lingfield.ticks a lot of boxes for me.last race,running on 4th,2 lgts behind winner,down 4 lbs this time.in the same class race,has shown form on this track,tends to run well this time of year,backed this morning from 12s to 7s,and with the likely sp fav triple charm,could improve but is unproven on the surface,also a small negitive in the market
                                                              Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                              Comment


                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                                                any opinion on loyal royal,13.05 lingfield.ticks a lot of boxes for me.last race,running on 4th,2 lgts behind winner,down 4 lbs this time.in the same class race,has shown form on this track,tends to run well this time of year,backed this morning from 12s to 7s,and with the likely sp fav triple charm,could improve but is unproven on the surface,also a small negitive in the market
                                                                I don't back gambles after the price has almost halved, possibly if you see money coming for a horse whose trainer/connections have a rep for backing their fancied ones and get on early before price is decimated but otherwise I wouldn't advice it. The object is to try find the potential gambles *before* the money comes for it, easier said than done though.

                                                                Loyal Royal is a Hugh Taylor(tipster on at the races) selection, he tipped it at 10/1 so I'm pretty sure any value is gone now. Personally don't like it, horse hasn't won a race better than class 6 since May 2006, although this looks like a weakish class 5 race, so wouldn't completely rule it out but not for me.
                                                                Profit before people.

                                                                Comment


                                                                  #33
                                                                  No luck with yesterdays selection. Nothing eye catching at Kempton this evening so will be back tomorrow.

                                                                  Bank 108.5 pts
                                                                  Profit before people.

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    #34
                                                                    One selection for tomorrow.

                                                                    19.40 Wolverhampton Star Links .75ew pts @ 10/1 (ladb)

                                                                    Will do write up in the morning.
                                                                    Last edited by The Situation; 25-11-11, 01:55.
                                                                    Profit before people.

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                                                                      One selection for tomorrow.

                                                                      19.40 Wolverhampton Star Links .75ew pts @ 10/1 (ladb)

                                                                      Will do write up in the morning.
                                                                      ^^ 3rd. Haven't watched race so can't comment. Returns +2.625pts but will round it to 2.5. In tatters today so not even gonna attempt to tackle today's card. Isn't another all weather meeting till Tuesday so will be back then, no Southwell card to the 6th of December sigh but then loads after in that month. They should race there everyday imo .

                                                                      Bank 109.5
                                                                      Profit before people.

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        #36
                                                                        So it turns out there is a Wolverhampton card today, don't know how I missed that when looking #MessyWeekend. One e/w small staked longshot in the 17.20 race, a class 5 handicap over 17 furlongs and horse in question is Admirable Duque. Keen to take on fav at prices in the race and think there's value opposing. AD has been pretty awful of late but showed decent ability earlier in the season in better quality races. Due to his poor recent results he's on a very attractive mark again if returning to early season form. Is 3/8 at Wolverhampton and has definitely shown most promise at this track. Step back up to 17 furlongs may suit too, ran a good third here in Jan over 17 in a class 4 race. Jockey is extremely inexperienced though so this is a slight neg imo despite claiming 7lbs, but could also turn out to be a massive + if handling the horse beyond his amatuer riding ability.

                                                                        17.20 Wolverhampton Admiral Duque .5ew (25/1)

                                                                        Remaining bank 108.5
                                                                        Last edited by The Situation; 28-11-11, 11:02.
                                                                        Profit before people.

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          #37
                                                                          Ugh 4th.
                                                                          Last edited by The Situation; 28-11-11, 18:36.
                                                                          Profit before people.

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            #38
                                                                            First one tomorrow comes from the 14.50 race at Lingfield, a class 2 handicap. Handicapper seems to have plenty of these exposed and needing career best runs to win, but Cochabamba seems to be one that looks on a potentially dangerous mark of 94. He ran in a good listed race last time out here two week ago, finished 4th but less than a length behind the winner who won in a fast time, the second place horse in that race runs in the race tomorrow and was put up 6lbs for his efforts but our selection Cochabamba remains on the same mark. Cochabamba has placed in a group 2 event too so clearly has a bit of class. Won his maiden here very convincingly so clearly can handle the surface.

                                                                            14.50 lingfield Cochabamba 2pts win @5/1

                                                                            Remaining bank 106.5
                                                                            Profit before people.

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              #39
                                                                              Busy today so not much time for explanation but have backed Barbican at Kempton this evening.

                                                                              17.30 Kempton Barbican 3pts win @9/4

                                                                              Remaining bank 103.5
                                                                              Profit before people.

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                #40
                                                                                Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                                                                                Busy today so not much time for explanation but have backed Barbican at Kempton this evening. 17.30 Kempton Barbican 3pts win @9/4
                                                                                Remaining bank 103.5
                                                                                great selection. Wished i'd taken the 9/4 though. Cheers and good luck with this. Will be following this wit interest
                                                                                Jayzus, Sheila! I forgot me feckin' trousers

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  #41
                                                                                  Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                                                                                  Busy today so not much time for explanation but have backed Barbican at Kempton this evening.

                                                                                  17.30 Kempton Barbican 3pts win @9/4

                                                                                  Remaining bank 103.5
                                                                                  Winner. Returns 9.75 pts

                                                                                  Current bank 113.25 pts.

                                                                                  So end of November thats +13.25 pts. Nothing spectacular but a decent start, Lots of AW meetings in December and plenty of Southwell ones so expecting a better month
                                                                                  Profit before people.

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    #42
                                                                                    Quite interested in Tom Dascombe's new recruit Liby's Dream running in the 19.00 at Wolverhampton tomorrow evening. Potentially progressive 3 year old filly whose shown a fair bit of ability on all weather this year. Won her maiden in September and followed it up with a couple of decent handicapped efforts. She's now joining a yard who really knows how to train a polytrack winner and currently flying so hopeful of improvement and is on a reasonable handicap mark to go in here. Richard Kingscote very capable jockey too obv.

                                                                                    19.00 Wolves Liby's Dream 1.5pts ew @9/1

                                                                                    Remaining bank 110.5 pts
                                                                                    In play : 3pts
                                                                                    Profit before people.

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      #43
                                                                                      Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                                                                                      Quite interested in Tom Dascombe's new recruit Liby's Dream running in the 19.00 at Wolverhampton tomorrow evening. Potentially progressive 3 year old filly whose shown a fair bit of ability on all weather this year. Won her maiden in September and followed it up with a couple of decent handicapped efforts. She's now joining a yard who really knows how to train a polytrack winner and currently flying so hopeful of improvement and is on a reasonable handicap mark to go in here. Richard Kingscote very capable jockey too obv.

                                                                                      19.00 Wolves Liby's Dream 1.5pts ew @9/1

                                                                                      Remaining bank 110.5 pts
                                                                                      In play : 3pts
                                                                                      Winner, lots of late money around for her which was a very positive sign. Returns +19.75

                                                                                      Current bank 130.25
                                                                                      Profit before people.

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        #44
                                                                                        Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                                                                                        Winner, lots of late money around for her which was a very positive sign. Returns +19.75

                                                                                        Current bank 130.25

                                                                                        Again thank you

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          #45
                                                                                          One selection tomorrow. Guava in the 12.10 nursery at lingfield. Ladbrokes 6/1 won't last much longer imo. 2 year old filly of Richard Hannons that's been a little inconsistant/green but a win on polytrack isn't far away for this one and Ryan Moore gets up for the ride tomorrow.

                                                                                          12.10 Lingfield Guava 2pts win @6/1

                                                                                          Remaining bank 128.25
                                                                                          Last edited by The Situation; 01-12-11, 23:45.
                                                                                          Profit before people.

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            #46
                                                                                            Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                                                                                            One selection tomorrow. Guava in the 12.10 nursery at lingfield. Ladbrokes 6/1 won't last much longer imo. 2 year old filly of Richard Hannons that's been a little inconsistant/green but a win on polytrack isn't far away for this one and Ryan Moore gets up for the ride tomorrow.

                                                                                            12.10 Lingfield Guava 2pts win @6/1

                                                                                            Remaining bank 128.25
                                                                                            Meh was never really challenging. Back later with tomorrows selections.
                                                                                            Profit before people.

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              #47
                                                                                              One selection from the evening card at Wolverhampton tomorrow. Greensward is the one I'm backing. Has had an excellent autumn winning a couple of decent handicaps nicely including a class 3 event which is what the race is tomorrow too over 7 furlongs. Has also won on both starts on polytrack including a win over course and distance. Won from stall 10 in his last handicap race at Chester which is quite difficult to do giving the big bias towards low stalls there. Recent wins means he's on a tough mark here but most of his market rivals are in the same boat and don't think any of the form horses are particularly unexposed. My issue is with the price, 8/1 is a good bit too big imo, I make him an ~11/2 shot here.

                                                                                              Was going to include styllistickhill in the last race, was on my eyecatchers list due to his lack of luck in running last time out but stayed on really well but bookies wise to this and have him plenty short.

                                                                                              Greensward 19.20 Wolves 1.5pts ew @8/1

                                                                                              Remaining bank 125.5 pts
                                                                                              In play 3pts
                                                                                              Last edited by The Situation; 03-12-11, 00:42.
                                                                                              Profit before people.

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                #48
                                                                                                Both horses mentioned above are on todays Top 10 market movers list, happy I got a look at the cards early last night.
                                                                                                Profit before people.

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  #49
                                                                                                  Poor run from Greensward yesterday.

                                                                                                  One horse at Lingfield tomorrow.

                                                                                                  14.30 Lingfield Encore un fois 2pts @ 4/1

                                                                                                  Remaining bank 123.5
                                                                                                  Profit before people.

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                    #50
                                                                                                    Couple from SW today, Whozthecat is the first of the selections running in the 13.00 race a 5 furlong class 4 event. Has been running poorly in good turf races all season but his handicap mark has dropped to a very exploitable mark of 79 due to this. Returned to all weather last time out in a class 3 6 furlong event at Wolves, went off far too fast and faded late on but early speed shown makes me think decision to drop back to 5 a good one imo, it's also a lot tougher to peg back strong front runners at Southwell so think this surface will be to his liking. In his two other all weather runs he won a class 3 race off 88 and a very good third here in a class 2 event last season. Running against some decent sorts here today but he may be too well in at the weights for all of them.

                                                                                                    13.00 Southwell Whozthecat 2pts win @ 9/2
                                                                                                    Profit before people.

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                      #51
                                                                                                      see mottley crewe 1.30 southwell,in to 4s from 5s,up to 9-3 but has won off 9-7,tends to like s/w,worth a shot?
                                                                                                      Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                        #52
                                                                                                        2nd one comes from the 15.00 race at Southwell a class 4 handicap. Sophia's Number One has been very much a course specialist with both her career wins coming here. Has ran three times at the venue, one 2nd and two 1st's. Jockey Atzeni likes to ride her prominately which again is always a good tactic at venue. Those where all over a mile or less but she steps up to 11f which is a trip into the unknown but breeding suggests she *should* stay the distance, no guarantee she will but think bookies have over compensated for this risk.

                                                                                                        15.00 Southwell Sophia's Number One 1pt ew @ 10/1*

                                                                                                        Has just been a non runner so price may not last long.
                                                                                                        Profit before people.

                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                          #53
                                                                                                          Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                                                                                          see mottley crewe 1.30 southwell,in to 4s from 5s,up to 9-3 but has won off 9-7,tends to like s/w,worth a shot?
                                                                                                          He's 8lbs worse off since his last win here where I backed him, think he's better over 6 furlongs and running against pretty good opposition here. I had him as a 9/2 shot in this race.
                                                                                                          Profit before people.

                                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                                            #54
                                                                                                            Bad couple of days, both had big gambools, Whozthecat went to 5/2 but only managed 3rd, Sofias into 5/1 but didn't stay at all.

                                                                                                            Starting bank 100pts
                                                                                                            Remaining Bank 119.5 pts
                                                                                                            Profit before people.

                                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                                              #55
                                                                                                              1 biggish priced horses tomorrow at Southwell. Bartley runs in the 12.15 race, a 5 runner 6 furlong class 5 nursery. Its more a case of finding one to take on the 2 market leaders as i think they're both a little short for different reason in the race, particularly Adranian. Bartley won a 6 furlong maiden in June on turf on good-soft ground, always a positive sign for a Southwell prospect to have for on soft. Its fair to say he's had a poor time running in a few handicaps since but could be on a decent mark if he takes a liking for the surface. Trainer also has a very decent ROI on fibresand so think he's worth a small poke at current price.

                                                                                                              12.15 Southwell Bartley 1pt win @ 14/1

                                                                                                              May add another later.
                                                                                                              Profit before people.

                                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                                #56
                                                                                                                Right time to get back amongst the winners, quite bullish about both selections at SW today.

                                                                                                                First comes from the 13.15 race, a class 6 seller over 8 furlongs. I see this as a match bet between the two market leaders, the two course specialist McConnell and Salerosa. They both coincidentally have 6 wins from 12 runs at the track. But I believe our choice Salerosa holds all the aces here despite being slightly bigger price. Firstly she's 11lbs lighter in the weights, despite only being a lbs lower on offical ratings, she's beaten McConnell here before when they where closer in weights. Had a poor season on turf but returned here last time out after a longish break and lost by a neck. A few things from that performance that impressed, she and the other horse that won by a neck pulled 4 lengths clear of other rivals, was won in a above average time, Salerosa looked to me like she was crying out for 8 furlongs as she wasn't slowing, and naturally after a long break she's entitled to come on for the run. She's 13/8 here but I'd make her a shade of odds on personally.


                                                                                                                13.15 Southwell Salerosa 4pts win@ 13/8

                                                                                                                2nd selection come from the 2.25 race at Southwell, a class 5 handicap. Richard Fahey's Stanley Rigby is the definition of a Southwell specialist, and is a good example of why form should be taken very much in isolation at this venue as he's been unbelievable on the polytrack and dire elsewhere. Has won 5 from 6 races here, and all 4 over todays distance. What's most impressive is that he seems to win whether he's prominent or held up, whether there's a strong pace or a muddling one, sort of versatility that makes a prolific winner. A possible negative is that he came back from break at Wolverhampton and finished dead last, but has come to Southwell before with seemingly terrible form and still won. Is on a career high mark, but still think it's very much a winnable one on track record, also has a jockey whose claiming 7lbs, she has a decent record so think that's a big advantage.

                                                                                                                2.25 Southwell Stanley Rigby 3pts win @ 7/2

                                                                                                                Starting bank 100 pts
                                                                                                                Remaining bank 111.5
                                                                                                                In play 7pts
                                                                                                                Last edited by The Situation; 10-12-11, 09:41.
                                                                                                                Profit before people.

                                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                                  #57
                                                                                                                  Also very much robbed from Hugh Taylors blog he's just put up on ATR I've put 2pts on Like a boy in the last at Southwell. Bookies seem slow on the up take this morning at slashing the prices of his selection so got on at 10/1.

                                                                                                                  3.30 Southwell Like a Boy 2pts win @10/1.

                                                                                                                  Edit, heh 5 mins later, everywhere has it slashed to 6/1.
                                                                                                                  Last edited by The Situation; 10-12-11, 10:10.
                                                                                                                  Profit before people.

                                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                                    #58
                                                                                                                    Jesus horrific stuff, worst days punting in a while. Disgusted with Eaves ride on Salerosa, far too concerned with what McConnell was doing and gave outsider an easy lead. Could do with Norwich holding on to get me some way out for the day
                                                                                                                    Profit before people.

                                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                                      #59
                                                                                                                      1.00 Southwell Sky High diver 2pts @9/4

                                                                                                                      3.00 Southwell Absolute Princess 1 pt @ 8/1.
                                                                                                                      Profit before people.

                                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                                        #60
                                                                                                                        Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                                                                                                                        1.00 Southwell Sky High diver 2pts @9/4

                                                                                                                        3.00 Southwell Absolute Princess 1 pt @ 8/1.
                                                                                                                        1st and 4th. Good to get a winner albeit a small one after recent downswing. +6.5 return on Sky High Diver.

                                                                                                                        Starting Bank 100pts

                                                                                                                        Current Bank 113 pts
                                                                                                                        Profit before people.

                                                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                                                        Working...
                                                                                                                        X