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    Online .50/1 Hand

    Can anyone give me their thoughts on this hand?I dont have exact figures but i'll try my best.

    I was playing on PP saturday with a chipstack of $216. I pick up QQ on the button and 3 bet an inital raise from the cutoff to $11.The small blind (chipstack around $200) 4 bets to $38,cut off folds and i call.

    The flop comes 3,6,10 rainbow and the small blind raises $48 and i call. Turn is a J and he pushes all in for $118.

    Going with the preflop action and 4 bet i'm putting him on aa,kk,ak or maybe jj and i dont think he pushes all in on the turn with the AK . He was a bit of a lunatic who lost a 3 bet pot earlier in the session with 10,8 off.

    whats you opinions on this? Call or Fold?

    #2
    Was it a 6max table, where did the original raiser open from?

    Comment


      #3
      seems like a straight forward fold to me

      Comment


        #4
        Close Id say.

        We can assume he is quite aggressive if he got caught in a 3bet pot with 108 that went to showdown. He prob barrells a lot of what he cbets with. Especially on this card.

        He can have AK, AQ(less combos as you have QQ), AJ(less likely as he would prob want to get to SD), KQ, 89, Q9 (sometimes), If the turn didnt complete the rainbow he can have a flushdraw he is barrelling off, you'd have to include some much bluff hands (given the 108 hand) He can obv have AA, KK, JJ and 10J too.

        Did you have his stats? If he is particularly aggressive/loose it makes it a call Id say.
        This may or may not be an original thought of my own.
        All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
        The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.

        Comment


          #5
          This shows you the value of losing (what I assume) was a small 3bet pot with T8o for later hands. Again assuming villain isnt a complete tard there just is 0 bluffs in his 4bet oop stack off range in a 200bb pot.

          Comment


            #6
            Edit scratch that. Misread the hand. I thought it was a 3bet/Squeeze not a 4bet.
            This may or may not be an original thought of my own.
            All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
            The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by The Stickman View Post
              Going with the preflop action and 4 bet i'm putting him on aa,kk,ak or maybe jj and i dont think he pushes all in on the turn with the AK
              If you put him on AA, KK and JJ then your decision is rather simple.

              Comment


                #8
                With the 4 bet preflop i'd put his range on aa,kk or ak especially as he was out of position.I folded the hand but was a bit sick after as i lost nearly half my stack on it.

                Comment


                  #9
                  What were your 3-betting tendencies thus far and again, where did the original raise come from? The 3bet is on the large side which would to my mind suggest AK/JJ slightly more than AA/KK.

                  In any case, there are 16 ways to make AK against which we're an 80% favourite and 15 ways to make AA/KK/JJ against which we're a 95% dog, so it's an easy call here given 2.5:1. There are 3 more ways to make TT which added to his range, would still make this a call
                  Last edited by Winning!; 27-06-11, 17:19.
                  "c'est en faisant n'importe quoi qu'on devient n'importe qui"

                  Comment


                    #10
                    .
                    Last edited by alanmc101; 01-07-11, 09:42.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Fold you are miles behind!!!

                      Comment


                        #12
                        you can't totally discount aa kk but the large 4bet close to 4x your 3bet is often a hand he doesn't really want to play post flop oop usually ak but sometimes jj,1010, after turn your not beatin much but id still prob call it off here, these days aq could be in his range here too as your 3betting a c/o rse from the button which he mightn't have huge respect for, if he wakes up wit a set or aakk good luck to him, and he absolutely would shove the turn wit ak/aq putting u on 88,99 or sth
                        Last edited by alanmc101; 01-07-11, 09:44.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Raise to $38 pre? stinks of AK / AQ, I call his shove, just too many times he cud had AK/AQ and u got half ur stack in there and its a cash game.

                          Unless u got a good read or good stats on him, its a call all day long.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            *Sigh* Head says fold. Heart says call. I'll go with my head on this one. Fold and kick the dog

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Really impossible to say what to do here. All you beat is a bluff and that T and J should be scaring him a little bit. Fold for me.
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                              Comment


                                #16
                                Can you give the details of the 10 8 hand? Against a TAG i'd be looking to fold somewhere here (ie I don't want to stack off for 200bbs with QQ), but against an aggro donk its fine.

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Any capable player has one of 4 hands here and we aren't beating any of them.His range should be defined by the pf action.
                                  Its a fold pre for me.
                                  If he has tendencies to 4 bet light then I like your call but get them in on the flop once he c bets.What are you waiting for,a queen to be sure,or an ace or a king to fold?
                                  Fold on the turn.you're only beating a lunatic.

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Bubbleboy View Post
                                    Any capable player has one of 4 hands here and we aren't beating any of them.His range should be defined by the pf action.
                                    Its a fold pre for me.
                                    If he has tendencies to 4 bet light then I like your call but get them in on the flop once he c bets.What are you waiting for,a queen to be sure,or an ace or a king to fold?
                                    Fold on the turn.you're only beating a lunatic.
                                    What do you expect villain to do with AK/AQ in this spot pre facing a btn 3bet, cos I assume the only hands you're referring to are AA/KK/JJ/TT? We split with QQ too you know..

                                    It doesn't take a lunatic to cbet a J-high board with AK, then shove the turn having picked up a gut-shot to go with your two overs.. just a capable aggressive player
                                    "c'est en faisant n'importe quoi qu'on devient n'importe qui"

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Winning! View Post
                                      What do you expect villain to do with AK/AQ in this spot pre facing a btn 3bet, cos I assume the only hands you're referring to are AA/KK/JJ/TT? We split with QQ too you know..

                                      It doesn't take a lunatic to cbet a J-high board with AK, then shove the turn having picked up a gut-shot to go with your two overs.. just a capable aggressive player
                                      I would think villain would be folding A-Q in this spot pre :/
                                      Ak a slight possibility right down the end of his range and the only hand we're beating bar a bluff IMO
                                      Q-Q,Ok let's call for the chop so,very +ev

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Bubbleboy View Post
                                        I would think villain would be folding A-Q in this spot pre :/
                                        Ak a slight possibility right down the end of his range and the only hand we're beating bar a bluff IMO
                                        Q-Q,Ok let's call for the chop so,very +ev
                                        Ok let's assume you're correct about AQ, which is very possible and also more likely given we have two blockers.. EVEN IF villain folds AQ pre here, there is no way he folds AK, so to say that it's merely a 'slight possibility' is very flawed logic.

                                        Think about what you would do in villains position with AK here.. You can't flat the 3bet pre because that's terrible play, so you 4bet! You cant just c/f the flop cos that's also weak/terrible play, so you cbet! And you can't just c/f the turn with so much now invested and having picked up outs, so you shove with fold equity! Is it really that hard to imagine someone playing a hand this way?

                                        Just because villain is repping a big pair here doesn't mean he has to have it. We know he's a very aggressive player, and by nature they will just keep betting at you to win pots, so folding to this turn shove having called on the flop is quite a big mistake. EVEN discounting random bluffs, if we narrow his range to squarely AK/AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT, this would still be a call. (see first post)
                                        "c'est en faisant n'importe quoi qu'on devient n'importe qui"

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Winning! View Post
                                          Think about what you would do in villains position with AK here.. You can't flat the 3bet pre because that's terrible play, so you 4bet! You cant just c/f the flop cos that's also weak/terrible play, so you cbet! And you can't just c/f the turn with so much now invested and having picked up outs, so you shove with fold equity! Is it really that hard to imagine someone playing a hand this way?
                                          If you think about it, from villains perspective, what fold equity does he have when the turn falls?

                                          TT/JJ are now sets, AA/KK should be expected to call. QQ is the only decision. Does villain shove AK precisely to hope that QQ folds?
                                          Seems like a reach.

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            When somebody cold 4-bets with 200 BBs then that makes me think about how good my QQ looks.

                                            I don't see that move with AK very much.

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by fuzzbox View Post
                                              If you think about it, from villains perspective, what fold equity does he have when the turn falls?

                                              TT/JJ are now sets, AA/KK should be expected to call. QQ is the only decision. Does villain shove AK precisely to hope that QQ folds?
                                              Seems like a reach.
                                              Im with winning on this one, and by his analysis here i assume he's living up to his name. Firstly its 50/1 cash which has become increasingly aggressive these days, what was it a c/o rse and a three bet from the button and a cold 4 bet from an aggressive player. Ok generally be very weary of cold 4 bets obv, but this late pos spot, the hero doesnt need a primo hand to 3 bet here, the villain knows this and you can actually put airballs in his range here too along with ak,aa,kk,jj,1010, also note the huge 4 bets size, its so often a hand he doesnt wanna take a flop wit, its pretty hard to get dealt aa,kk and ppl like to milk it generally speaking. As for post flop, he would play ak/aq like this, the 10 and the j are worrisome in terms of hittin your range but he prob isnt a thinkin enough player to kno this and if he is a thinkin player he can easily put u on 88,99. Also if hes a maniac theres a lot of hands that turn gives a lot of equity to, like kq, even or as i say refering to the air ball 89s, say he turned kj,aj into bluff pre what else does he do. You really have to be putting him on a seriously tight range to fold here.

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by fuzzbox View Post
                                                When somebody cold 4-bets with 200 BBs then that makes me think about how good my QQ looks.

                                                I don't see that move with AK very much.
                                                I see that move all the time, in 6 max cash ak is teh nuts to ppl, they put their house it trust me, as winning says cold callin ak is terribad as you whiff the flop 2/3 times, its 4 bet get it in for most, esp in a late position spot

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  Its 200bbs deep here though.

                                                  Most folk wont get QQ or AK in 200deep unless its a really aggressive dynamic.

                                                  And Winning just made up a scenario to suit having AK in the situation.
                                                  Last edited by RoadSweeper; 21-07-11, 19:01.

                                                  Comment


                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by RoadSweeper View Post
                                                    Its 200bbs deep here though.

                                                    Most folk wont get QQ or AK in 200deep unless its a really aggressive dynamic.

                                                    And Winning just made up a scenario to suit having AK in the situation.
                                                    Sorry i wasnt clear i agree with this, obviously its very spewy in some spots to get 200bbs in with qqak, it depends on the spot and the player, this player has shown himself to be aggressive pre and the heros 3 betting range from the button vs a c/o open is so wide that hes 4 bet getting in ak here most of the time

                                                    Comment


                                                      #27
                                                      thats a huge cold 4 bet, so defo value hands here imo and not some light 4bet bluff. The Jack hits your calling range so when he shoves allin on this it seems very strong so easy fold here. All you have is a bluff catcher and without any reads on this guy you must fold

                                                      Comment


                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by RoadSweeper View Post
                                                        Its 200bbs deep here though.

                                                        Most folk wont get QQ or AK in 200deep unless its a really aggressive dynamic.

                                                        And Winning just made up a scenario to suit having AK in the situation.
                                                        I really don't know what you mean by that. I basically said that in this particular scenario, there is no reason why villain cannot have AK. I didn't say he has to have it, but statistically it is more likely, and his line doesn't rule it out to any degree.

                                                        And you're right, mostly people wont get it in 200BB deep with AK/QQ but sometimes it just happens! Preflop betting, board texture, run-out, in certain combinations they can just force action which leads to getting the chips in.
                                                        "c'est en faisant n'importe quoi qu'on devient n'importe qui"

                                                        Comment


                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by alanmc101 View Post
                                                          Im with winning on this one, and by his analysis here i assume he's living up to his name. Firstly its 50/1 cash which has become increasingly aggressive these days, what was it a c/o rse and a three bet from the button and a cold 4 bet from an aggressive player. Ok generally be very weary of cold 4 bets obv, but this late pos spot, the hero doesnt need a primo hand to 3 bet here, the villain knows this and you can actually put airballs in his range here too along with ak,aa,kk,jj,1010, also note the huge 4 bets size, its so often a hand he doesnt wanna take a flop wit, its pretty hard to get dealt aa,kk and ppl like to milk it generally speaking.

                                                          As for post flop, he would play ak/aq like this, the 10 and the j are worrisome in terms of hittin your range but he prob isnt a thinkin enough player to kno this and if he is a thinkin player he can easily put u on 88,99. Also if hes a maniac theres a lot of hands that turn gives a lot of equity to, like kq, even or as i say refering to the air ball 89s, say he turned kj,aj into bluff pre what else does he do. You really have to be putting him on a seriously tight range to fold here.
                                                          My post was referring to the postflop play. At the turn, when he shoves, he basically never has AK.

                                                          I don't buy any of the ranges you are assigning here. When villain shoves, I expect him to expect me to call, therefore I believe he has a big made hand.

                                                          Comment


                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by fuzzbox View Post
                                                            My post was referring to the postflop play. At the turn, when he shoves, he basically never has AK.

                                                            I don't buy any of the ranges you are assigning here. When villain shoves, I expect him to expect me to call, therefore I believe he has a big made hand.
                                                            really so u think he gets to this turn and Jus check folds ak/aq all the time? u say he "never has ak". this is just plain wrong, some ppl might chk fold here but most aggro players are jamming this turn, he has enough chips to get u off one pair, he's Jus picked up a gutshot and is reppin aa/kk well.

                                                            I'm sorry u don't "buy" that airballs might be in his range here and I agree they're his least likely holding but this spot here is perfect for a cold 4 bet bluff pre, its a winning play these days as it wins the pot a ton preflop and players do it with hands that can flop huge like mid connectors and small pairs. this player has shown himself to bluff raise pre so u can't completely discount this possibility. you seem to be very certain about everything u say, pokers not that clear cut my friend, it never is u can always only speculate as to your opponents range you can never say things with absolute certainty

                                                            Comment


                                                              #31
                                                              I would cold 4bet a bag of spanners here quite often.

                                                              Opr

                                                              Comment


                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by alanmc101 View Post
                                                                really so u think he gets to this turn and Jus check folds ak/aq all the time? u say he "never has ak". this is just plain wrong, some ppl might chk fold here but most aggro players are jamming this turn, he has enough chips to get u off one pair, he's Jus picked up a gutshot and is reppin aa/kk well.
                                                                From villains perspective, it is very unlikely that I have a hand that I will fold. Why would you shove to try to get me to fold precisely QQ? TT/JJ snap call. Villain should expect AA/KK to call.

                                                                Stating that he "basically never" has AK isn't wrong, it is the data that I have witnessed. You can believe what you like, but I give you the facts. I'm sure you can find some different facts from your experience, and they will certainly impact your findings, but I don't have access to those.

                                                                I contend, however, that folks are NOT jamming the turn with AK/AQ here for 120 BBs.

                                                                I'm sorry u don't "buy" that airballs might be in his range here and I agree they're his least likely holding but this spot here is perfect for a cold 4 bet bluff pre, its a winning play these days as it wins the pot a ton preflop and players do it with hands that can flop huge like mid connectors and small pairs. this player has shown himself to bluff raise pre so u can't completely discount this possibility. you seem to be very certain about everything u say, pokers not that clear cut my friend, it never is u can always only speculate as to your opponents range you can never say things with absolute certainty
                                                                Making a cold 4bet bluff is one thing, but firing the remainder of your stack at a blank board is a totally different thing.

                                                                What range do you give villain so that QQ wins enough to make the call profitable?

                                                                Comment


                                                                  #33
                                                                  great thread.


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                                                                    #34
                                                                    If the turn brings a backdoor flush draw its quite important as I'm sure any capable aggro villan will jam ak or some suited hand that had connected with the board.

                                                                    If you are not capable of bluffing off your stack with improved turn equity when this deep then you should probably not be playing this deep. People can also be more likely to try get people to fold marginal hands here as you have a lot more fold equity. Also worth noting that other type of players freeze up here this deep with aa/kk and will not jam it in as you normally just get a fold. Board is dry enough so its not like hes trying to make draws pay to see the river.

                                                                    Do people fold kk or aa here?

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by fuzzbox View Post
                                                                      From villains perspective, it is very unlikely that I have a hand that I will fold. Why would you shove to try to get me to fold precisely QQ? TT/JJ snap call. Villain should expect AA/KK to call.
                                                                      What you do on the turn with 99/88/ATs? probably fold right? Mission accomplished. He doesn't need us to fold very often to show a profit by shoving here.

                                                                      Originally posted by fuzzbox View Post
                                                                      What range do you give villain so that QQ wins enough to make the call profitable?
                                                                      Read my first post; vs a conservative range of AK/AA-TT we would be getting the right price to call, but that's ignoring a crucial factor, which is that villain has shown himself to be a maniac! Thus, we run into random 1P/bluffs/semi-bluffs a non-trivial % of the time, making the call even easier.

                                                                      Originally posted by digiman View Post
                                                                      Do people fold kk or aa here?
                                                                      As in does hero ever fold? Never. Burning money to fold overpairs to an overly aggro player in this spot.
                                                                      "c'est en faisant n'importe quoi qu'on devient n'importe qui"

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        #36
                                                                        The way the action went I think JJ is unlikely. Unless he is super aggro (stats?) ak/aq is pretty unlikely too. This deep it seems like too much of a swing in the dark to stack off in this spot with your hand. Feels like villain has kk I guess.Only KK or AA makes much sense in this spot really. Dump it and punch something soft.
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                                                                          #37
                                                                          Originally posted by Winning! View Post
                                                                          What you do on the turn with 99/88/ATs? probably fold right? Mission accomplished. He doesn't need us to fold very often to show a profit by shoving here.
                                                                          Do you get to the flop with 99/88/ATs when you get cold 4-bet? Why? What are you hoping to achieve?


                                                                          Read my first post; vs a conservative range of AK/AA-TT we would be getting the right price to call, but that's ignoring a crucial factor, which is that villain has shown himself to be a maniac! Thus, we run into random 1P/bluffs/semi-bluffs a non-trivial % of the time, making the call even easier.
                                                                          I disagree that this range is conservative.. Thats the whole point of the conversation.
                                                                          If I agreed with the range then sure, go call.

                                                                          How has villain shown himself to be a maniac?



                                                                          As in does hero ever fold? Never. Burning money to fold overpairs to an overly aggro player in this spot.
                                                                          How do you get to "overly aggressive player" from the OP. I think you read a lot into this "He was a bit of a lunatic who lost a 3 bet pot earlier in the session with 10,8 off.".

                                                                          There is nothing really there to give me a strong impression that the guy is an overly aggro maniac. Sure there is a hint, but is that enough? How did the 3bet pot go down? Maybe he played it well - I sure dont know.

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            #38
                                                                            Originally posted by fuzzbox View Post
                                                                            Do you get to the flop with 99/88/ATs when you get cold 4-bet? Why? What are you hoping to achieve?

                                                                            I disagree that this range is conservative.. Thats the whole point of the conversation.
                                                                            If I agreed with the range then sure, go call.

                                                                            How has villain shown himself to be a maniac?

                                                                            How do you get to "overly aggressive player" from the OP. I think you read a lot into this "He was a bit of a lunatic who lost a 3 bet pot earlier in the session with 10,8 off.".

                                                                            There is nothing really there to give me a strong impression that the guy is an overly aggro maniac. Sure there is a hint, but is that enough? How did the 3bet pot go down? Maybe he played it well - I sure dont know.
                                                                            Personally would never get to the flop but was talking about from villains perspective, where he can easily believe he's trying to get us off a mid strength hand 1P/PP here having not come over the top pre.

                                                                            And yes, all we have to go on is OPs description as 'lunatic', so our argument over ranges is academic. Would he have used that word if thew guy was a mere TAG? My view is that this usually defines a super aggro or bad player, one more than capable of taking this line with a wider range than simply AA/KK/JJ/TT.
                                                                            "c'est en faisant n'importe quoi qu'on devient n'importe qui"

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              #39
                                                                              Originally posted by digiman View Post
                                                                              If the turn brings a backdoor flush draw its quite important as I'm sure any capable aggro villan will jam ak or some suited hand that had connected with the board.
                                                                              Vs a range of AA-TT or the specific AK that now has a fd what is the equity of QQ vs this push?

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                #40
                                                                                Originally posted by Winning! View Post
                                                                                Personally would never get to the flop but was talking about from villains perspective, where he can easily believe he's trying to get us off a mid strength hand 1P/PP here having not come over the top pre.

                                                                                And yes, all we have to go on is OPs description as 'lunatic', so our argument over ranges is academic. Would he have used that word if thew guy was a mere TAG? My view is that this usually defines a super aggro or bad player, one more than capable of taking this line with a wider range than simply AA/KK/JJ/TT.
                                                                                He said "bit of a lunatic" and referenced a single hand.

                                                                                He 4-bets relatively small relative to pot, then bets the flop fairly small (sorta half pot). Seems different than the actions of a crazed lunatic to me.

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  #41
                                                                                  Originally posted by fuzzbox View Post
                                                                                  Vs a range of AA-TT or the specific AK that now has a fd what is the equity of QQ vs this push?
                                                                                  Doesn't just have to be AK, could be other pair and flush draw hands or flush and straight draw hands that he 4b bluffed with etc.

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    #42
                                                                                    Originally posted by digiman View Post
                                                                                    Doesn't just have to be AK, could be other pair and flush draw hands or flush and straight draw hands that he 4b bluffed with etc.
                                                                                    Like what?
                                                                                    What do you think his range is?
                                                                                    Surely you agree that the main part of his range is big made hands that have us drawing to 2 outs?

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      #43
                                                                                      I'd fold.

                                                                                      Thats an enormous 4bet, weaker players often choose sizings as large as that with very strong hands.

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        #44
                                                                                        Originally posted by fuzzbox View Post
                                                                                        Like what?
                                                                                        What do you think his range is?
                                                                                        Surely you agree that the main part of his range is big made hands that have us drawing to 2 outs?
                                                                                        Well firstly I dont think he just shoves aa/kk in all the time either. Also he probably doesn't cold 4b TT/JJ very often as well. These really depends on the player and why he thinks he is shoving as it would appear that there is no value in it.

                                                                                        I'm on my phone now so can't really type out what I think. In summary it depends on how much he is 4b bluffing often in this spot. If it is not much then its an easy fold. If he is then I would call, but there is no info in the op to make a call on this so giving him a range is probably pointless.

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          #45
                                                                                          Originally posted by fuzzbox View Post
                                                                                          Like what?
                                                                                          What do you think his range is?
                                                                                          Surely you agree that the main part of his range is big made hands that have us drawing to 2 outs?
                                                                                          What big hands ? AA/KK ? I don't think he is 4betting much else for value this deep. His range can consists of a tonne of stuff that he was bluffing with that picked up equity on the turn. Any bag of rubbish he decided to bluff pre with.

                                                                                          When he shoves on the turn if he has a hand with decent equity against an overpair he needs you to fold very little to show a profit. Also the specific hand range he is trying to get you to fold while small is our most likely hands.

                                                                                          Opr
                                                                                          Last edited by Opr; 10-08-11, 15:24.

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            #46
                                                                                            Originally posted by fuzzbox View Post
                                                                                            He said "bit of a lunatic" and referenced a single hand.
                                                                                            who knows what he meant by 'bit of', 'lunatic' is the operative word here, it's all we have to go on. It instantly makes him capable of getting into this spot without a big pair. There is no other way to assess this situation without more information. If villain can 3bet with T8o I'm sure he is more than capable of 4betting light over a BTN 3bet so we are destined to give him action with the top of our range.

                                                                                            And the 4bet is far too big, it's bad sizing with nut hands and bluffs, usually a strong but vulnerable hand from players who don't properly understand bet-sizing. Circumstantial evidence as to hand strength but worth noting nonetheless
                                                                                            "c'est en faisant n'importe quoi qu'on devient n'importe qui"

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                                                                                              #47
                                                                                              Originally posted by Opr View Post
                                                                                              What big hands ? AA/KK ? I don't think he is 4betting much else for value this deep. His range can consists of a tonne of stuff that he was bluffing with that picked up equity on the turn. Any bag of rubbish he decided to bluff pre with.

                                                                                              When he shoves on the turn if he has a hand with decent equity against an overpair he needs you to fold very little to show a profit. Also the specific hand range he is trying to get you to fold while small is our most likely hands.

                                                                                              Opr
                                                                                              Ok, lets assume that our villain is capable of 4-bet bluffing over a co raise + btn 3bet.
                                                                                              When the board comes down dry as a bone, T63r, does he really continue to bluff at it?
                                                                                              From his perspective, our hand range is very strong, yet he fires away. Why?
                                                                                              Then on the turn, after we call - this further re-enforces our strong range, and he fires the turn for more than a whole buy-in.

                                                                                              That is really a very strong line against a perceived very strong range.

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                                                                                                #48
                                                                                                Originally posted by Winning! View Post
                                                                                                who knows what he meant by 'bit of', 'lunatic' is the operative word here, it's all we have to go on. It instantly makes him capable of getting into this spot without a big pair. There is no other way to assess this situation without more information. If villain can 3bet with T8o I'm sure he is more than capable of 4betting light over a BTN 3bet so we are destined to give him action with the top of our range.

                                                                                                And the 4bet is far too big, it's bad sizing with nut hands and bluffs, usually a strong but vulnerable hand from players who don't properly understand bet-sizing. Circumstantial evidence as to hand strength but worth noting nonetheless
                                                                                                This is not about the preflop action anymore. We've given him preflop action with the top of our range. This is now about postflop.

                                                                                                Here we are, with the top of our range calling for all to see, and yet he keeps firing very large bets.

                                                                                                If the bad bet size represents a strong but vulnerable hand preflop, then how can he also be bluffing? You can't have it both ways.

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                                                                                                  #49
                                                                                                  Just as there is only a hint that he is a maniac there is no hint that we are expecting him to be in any way capable.
                                                                                                  Its impossible for me to narrow his range enough from flop to turn here. We need to know that he is capable of a/ getting himself into the spot and b/ jamming turn with both air and AQ AK here to make it a call.

                                                                                                  Very difficult spot - I used to always expect an unknown who plays like this to be spazzing but I've learned the hard way to wait for the stats and with the standard of nittiness prevalent at .5/1 these days I try to find a fold.

                                                                                                  Welcome home Fuzzbox, the quality of theory debate around here just went up hugely
                                                                                                  Turning millions into thousands

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                                                                                                    #50
                                                                                                    Originally posted by fuzzbox View Post
                                                                                                    Ok, lets assume that our villain is capable of 4-bet bluffing over a co raise + btn 3bet.
                                                                                                    When the board comes down dry as a bone, T63r, does he really continue to bluff at it?

                                                                                                    From his perspective, our hand range is very strong, yet he fires away. Why?

                                                                                                    Then on the turn, after we call - this further re-enforces our strong range, and he fires the turn for more than a whole buy-in.

                                                                                                    That is really a very strong line against a perceived very strong range.
                                                                                                    I would absolutely continue on this board. Yes his calling range should be pretty strong but my perceived 4bet/C-bet range should be AA I never tell a lie type story at this stage. I think he will have tried to get AA in pre flop a decent amount of the time so it weights a little less in his range. I expect him to have stuff in his range that he will fold like AKs or maybe even QQ , JJ and other random stuff he has maybe called pre with.

                                                                                                    One of the reasons that 4bet bluffing pre here is so good is that he folds lots of the time pre but if he re-raises I can just dump it but if he calls my perceived range is so strong that I can take him off his strong hands on later streets. (Its funny thinking back that people used to view 3bets in a similar vein )

                                                                                                    The turn is a complete guessing game as if he has decent equity and he understands that his perceived range is so strong then shoving to fold out a small range of hands within our range isn't such a bad play. He might not even be thinking about our range and just be thinking I have repped the hell out of this AA its time for me to tell the happy ending. I just think calling may be an option for us given that his range on the turn now becomes really polarized to AA/KK or bluffs given what happened pre flop.

                                                                                                    We are going way off the specifics of this hand as the lack of info makes it impossible to be thinking about the hand in this level of detail.

                                                                                                    Opr
                                                                                                    Last edited by Opr; 10-08-11, 16:57.

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                                                                                                      #51
                                                                                                      Originally posted by fuzzbox View Post
                                                                                                      If the bad bet size represents a strong but vulnerable hand preflop, then how can he also be bluffing? You can't have it both ways.
                                                                                                      There is no contradiction, AK/AQ are now semi-bluffing, are they not?

                                                                                                      Obviously our hand is face up as 1P+ after we call the cbet, since we're never floating here, but we can't simply say this should make villain slow down, as he is a logical thinker, and knows in game that he will be called if he shoves. Spazzers gonna spazz!

                                                                                                      In any case fuzzbox, everything we debate as to his range is based purely on my assumption from OP that villain is overly aggro, and your contention that I am wrong. Without detailed history/stats and no insight into how villain thinks, this just goes in circles.
                                                                                                      "c'est en faisant n'importe quoi qu'on devient n'importe qui"

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                                                                                                        #52
                                                                                                        Originally posted by Winning! View Post
                                                                                                        There is no contradiction, AK/AQ are now semi-bluffing, are they not?

                                                                                                        Obviously our hand is face up as 1P+ after we call the cbet, since we're never floating here, but we can't simply say this should make villain slow down, as he is a logical thinker, and knows in game that he will be called if he shoves. Spazzers gonna spazz!

                                                                                                        In any case fuzzbox, everything we debate as to his range is based purely on my assumption from OP that villain is overly aggro, and your contention that I am wrong. Without detailed history/stats and no insight into how villain thinks, this just goes in circles.
                                                                                                        Hey there,
                                                                                                        Firstly, I didn't say you were wrong, I said that I disagreed. They are different things.

                                                                                                        Anyhoo - while it may seem that we go around in circles, the debate is a good one, and hopefully we all learn other perspectives from the dicsussion.

                                                                                                        Fuzz

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                                                                                                          #53
                                                                                                          Originally posted by Opr View Post
                                                                                                          I would absolutely continue on this board. Yes his calling range should be pretty strong but my perceived 4bet/C-bet range should be AA I never tell a lie type story at this stage. I think he will have tried to get AA in pre flop a decent amount of the time so it weights a little less in his range. I expect him to have stuff in his range that he will fold like AKs or maybe even QQ , JJ and other random stuff he has maybe called pre with.

                                                                                                          One of the reasons that 4bet bluffing pre here is so good is that he folds lots of the time pre but if he re-raises I can just dump it but if he calls my perceived range is so strong that I can take him off his strong hands on later streets. (Its funny thinking back that people used to view 3bets in a similar vein )

                                                                                                          The turn is a complete guessing game as if he has decent equity and he understands that his perceived range is so strong then shoving to fold out a small range of hands within our range isn't such a bad play. He might not even be thinking about our range and just be thinking I have repped the hell out of this AA its time for me to tell the happy ending. I just think calling may be an option for us given that his range on the turn now becomes really polarized to AA/KK or bluffs given what happened pre flop.

                                                                                                          We are going way off the specifics of this hand as the lack of info makes it impossible to be thinking about the hand in this level of detail.

                                                                                                          Opr
                                                                                                          Hey,
                                                                                                          Your thought process is a good one, and this is definitely some multi-level thinking going on here.
                                                                                                          However I contend a couple of points.
                                                                                                          1. If villain is the thinking player that you allude to, then he also has to make sure that hero is a thinking player who is capable of folding QQ/KK here. Many times, I've made plays such as this, only to find that my opposite number makes the call anyway, even though *I* think that he shouldn't.

                                                                                                          2. This is an extremely specific set of circumstances to support a possible bluff at this level, with large stacks. Most often, in my experience, people put truck loads of money into the middle when the have a big hand. QQ is not a big hand Vs the range that pumps truck loads of money into the middle. For villain to do this as a bluff, we have to believe that he is capable of all the thinking that you describe above and that he believes that we will fold something like QQ to all his heavy action.

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                                                                                                            #54
                                                                                                            Originally posted by Winning! View Post
                                                                                                            There is no contradiction, AK/AQ are now semi-bluffing, are they not?
                                                                                                            .
                                                                                                            They are semi-bluffing only now? What were they doing preflop, cold-4betting for value? Vs what?

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                                                                                                              #55
                                                                                                              Originally posted by fuzzbox View Post
                                                                                                              Hey there,
                                                                                                              Firstly, I didn't say you were wrong, I said that I disagreed. They are different things.

                                                                                                              Anyhoo - while it may seem that we go around in circles, the debate is a good one, and hopefully we all learn other perspectives from the dicsussion.

                                                                                                              Fuzz
                                                                                                              Yeah it's an interesting debate, I agree. All I meant to say is our contention on ranges can't realistically go much further without solid stats/history on villain.
                                                                                                              "c'est en faisant n'importe quoi qu'on devient n'importe qui"

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                                                                                                                #56
                                                                                                                Originally posted by fuzzbox View Post
                                                                                                                They are semi-bluffing only now? What were they doing preflop, cold-4betting for value? Vs what?
                                                                                                                4 outs to the nuts so yeah, it's a semi-bluff. And preflop they were cold 4betting because it's the most +EV move. It's not a raise for instant value from AQ or w/e, but folding & flatting oop are both terrible, while by taking the lead villain can take it down pre or fold out better hands postflop with aggressive play. Case in point.
                                                                                                                "c'est en faisant n'importe quoi qu'on devient n'importe qui"

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                                                                                                                  #57
                                                                                                                  Originally posted by Winning! View Post
                                                                                                                  4 outs to the nuts so yeah, it's a semi-bluff. And preflop they were cold 4betting because it's the most +EV move. It's not a raise for instant value from AQ or w/e, but folding & flatting oop are both terrible, while by taking the lead villain can take it down pre or fold out better hands postflop with aggressive play. Case in point.
                                                                                                                  Since your value comes from Fold equity, wouldn't you say that you are also semi-bluffing preflop?
                                                                                                                  You raise to get everybody to fold, but if they call you might hit the best hand?

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                                                                                                                    #58
                                                                                                                    Originally posted by fuzzbox View Post
                                                                                                                    Since your value comes from Fold equity, wouldn't you say that you are also semi-bluffing preflop?
                                                                                                                    You raise to get everybody to fold, but if they call you might hit the best hand?
                                                                                                                    I see what you mean, but in a vacuum facing a BTN 3bet we likely have the best hand right now, so we aren't really bluffing but raising because we think we are best.

                                                                                                                    If they call, we can narrow their range to something like AK/PP's (maybe AQ) against which we are essentially flipping, so yes we probably need to hit to take the lead, and our hand has now become a semi-bluff of sorts. I'm cautious of stating it like that tbh, but I know what you mean.
                                                                                                                    "c'est en faisant n'importe quoi qu'on devient n'importe qui"

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                                                                                                                      #59
                                                                                                                      Originally posted by Winning! View Post
                                                                                                                      I see what you mean, but in a vacuum facing a BTN 3bet we likely have the best hand right now, so we aren't really bluffing but raising because we think we are best.
                                                                                                                      But you are bluffing - because you don't expect a call with a worse hand than yours.

                                                                                                                      If they call, we can narrow their range to something like AK/PP's (maybe AQ) against which we are essentially flipping, so yes we probably need to hit to take the lead, and our hand has now become a semi-bluff of sorts. I'm cautious of stating it like that tbh, but I know what you mean.
                                                                                                                      We are not flipping against the range that calls. We are specifically semi-bluffing in order to get a bunch of the hands that we are flipping against, to fold.
                                                                                                                      We don't expect worse hands to call (AQ, AJ, KQ etc), so it is entirely a semi-bluff.

                                                                                                                      The calling range TT+ (even AK is a reach, cos that will shove/fold most likely). has us in trouble, although holding an Ace and a King certainly helps us by reducing the combos of AA/KK that are out there.

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                                                                                                                        #60
                                                                                                                        Yeah but we didn't know we were going to be called lol, so how can we know we're bluffing? We're obviously ahead of a BTN 3betting range, and most of the time will just win it preflop, so if I understand poker it's pretty hard to be bluffing when our hand is probably best...

                                                                                                                        Once he calls, ok fine, we narrow his range and our next bet will either be for value or as a bluff/semi-bluff depending on the flop, but not until then.

                                                                                                                        Why is this semibluff thing so important anyway? Thread seems to have derailed somewhat..
                                                                                                                        "c'est en faisant n'importe quoi qu'on devient n'importe qui"

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