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Bubble play in satellites

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    Bubble play in satellites

    I struggle a bit with my calling range when i'm chipleader in these so just want to get some other opinions.

    Anyway, these are two hands from satellite I played over the weekend. Top two get tickets and third gets almost ticket in cash,like ten bucks short. They're probably super standard but just wanted a line check.

    Hand 1.
    Blinds 600/1200

    Hero (BB): t28130 M = 12.79
    CO: t8375 M = 3.81
    BTN: t20890 M = 9.50
    SB: t12605 M = 5.73

    Hero is BB with 5 :club: A :club:
    CO raises to t8275
    Hero folds

    I actually timed out here as I didn't realise I'd nothing left on timer but was about to call. His range is obviously super wide given 7bb stack and blinds are about to go through him again. I'm presuming this is a snap call but I'm a bit cautious and aware that if i lost this hand it gets tight so would like to hear other opinions.

    Hand 2

    Blinds 800/1600

    Hero (BB): t31230 M = 10.41
    CO: t10550 M = 3.52
    BTN: t16115 M = 5.37
    SB: t12105 M = 4.04

    Hero is BB with 2 :spade: 2 :diamond:
    SB raises to t11955 all in
    Hero folds

    I snap folded here. Obviously I'm likely to have the best hand at the moment but didn't see the need to gamble given stack sizes of the table.

    All opinions appreciated.

    #2
    I'd fold both. There's a far bigger risk v reward in these hands considering your chip position. Let the others do the calling, and you take the aggressive approach when it's folded to you. Get the chips in 1st in a sat around the bubble is far superior to calling it off light, even if you are ahead of his range.

    In the first one, if you give him a 60% shoving range, you're only 55% and even if he is shoving 80%, then you're still only 58% versus the range. The 40%+ times you lose these hands is more detrimental to your stack than the chip values alone.

    22 versus an 80% shoving range is a slight dog, so the same applies for me.

    Comment


      #3
      Hand 1
      Easy fold imo.
      You are losing a lot of equity of playing. Our calling range is pretty tight here. He should be pushing about 21%, but even if he is significantly looser and pushing wider than optimal, we still don't gain much equity.


      Hand 2
      My first thought was to fold a huge range with those stacks. That was before checking the hand. With 22 there's no decision to be made. Mostly likely to be flipping, big dog at worst.

      If these are the hands you picked out as being tight decisions, then you need to fold a lot more in later stage of satellites.

      Comment


        #4
        I agree with FD.

        A5s and 22 are very marginal hands here - especially calling with them. Let the other eejits do the calling.

        Comment


          #5
          both are absolute snap folds, with essentially 3 seats and 4 left, and u in the lead, pretty much everything is a snap fold !

          Comment

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