Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Thoughts please

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    Thoughts please

    This hand is from 25k gtd. 616 left. 2720 started. Average Stack 13.2k. No HH with villain.


    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 11 Tournament, 200/400 Blinds 50 Ante (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    SB (t30246)
    Hero (BB) (t18020)
    UTG (t19855)
    UTG+1 (t12375)
    MP1 (t16560)
    MP2 (t12587)
    CO (t14360)
    Button (t12056)

    Hero's M: 18.02

    Preflop: Hero is BB with J, A
    UTG bets t800, 4 folds, Button calls t800, 1 fold, Hero calls t400

    Flop: (t3000) 6, 3, A (3 players)
    Hero checks, UTG checks, Button checks

    Turn: (t3000) 10 (3 players)
    Hero bets t1850, UTG calls t1850, 1 fold

    River: (t6700) Q (2 players)
    Hero checks, UTG bets t3600,

    Total pot: t10300


    Do we call/fold/raise here? Would appreciate thoughts on all streets.
    Last edited by Caf; 28-04-10, 16:46. Reason: Total pot was incorrect

    #2
    Raising the river would be bad. We pretty much beat none of the hands he will call with.
    Our holding is pretty under repped and checking the river makes like it was a turn stab. Flat the river and expect to be ahead a lot of his range.

    Comment


      #3
      Flat river. Raise pre.
      Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt

      Comment


        #4
        Really really really really really dislike 3betting here.

        Bet river yourself.
        Foldaramus et foldarabimus

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by Mellor View Post
          Raising the river would be bad. We pretty much beat none of the hands he will call with.
          Our holding is pretty under repped and checking the river makes like it was a turn stab. Flat the river and expect to be ahead a lot of his range.
          What are we beating that flats the turn and bets the riv? Air?
          If you say we have under repped our hand, should we be playing any other street different?


          Originally posted by Wombatman View Post
          Flat river. Raise pre.
          Pre, with our call, the pot is 3k. The pot could spiral to 11/12k if 2 callers or about 8/9k with 1 caller. It leaves our Cbet being a significant portion of our stack. What do we achieve by 3betting pre?

          Originally posted by TommyGunne View Post
          Really really really really really dislike 3betting here.

          Bet river yourself.
          Are we bet/ folding riv then? Around how much is a good lead on riv?

          Comment


            #6
            I wouldn't raise pre unless I had a good idea original raiser might fold or that I was prob ahead of his range. button caller prob along for the ride so no need to worry about him.

            I think check on flop OOP is fine

            Turn lead and size is also fine

            I'm happy with check call on river also as you don't really know where you are in the hand. He rarely calls with worse if you lead and it will cost you more to call reraise if he has you beat. checking will also induce bluffs.

            if he has QQ or KJ so be it, wouldn't have been a good idea to lead the flop

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by Caf View Post
              What do we achieve by 3betting pre?
              Am...... poketing the 2.k right there, folding the sb in most cases and if you see a flop you are ahead of UTG range all be it OOP.
              Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt

              Comment


                #8
                Snap Call on the river, never a raise though.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by Wombatman View Post
                  Am...... poketing the 2.k right there, folding the sb in most cases and if you see a flop you are ahead of UTG range all be it OOP.
                  The sb has already folded. Here is a wide enough(imo) range that UTG may continue with to a 3b. We are not ahead of it. Alot of the time he will just jam and we have to fold a sexy AJs. And yes we are oop. That much I agree with

                  Dead:

                  equity win tie pots won pots tied
                  Hand 0: 38.344% 35.34% 03.00% 169451384 14385638.00 { AJs }
                  Hand 1: 61.656% 58.66% 03.00% 281222460 14385638.00 { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+ }


                  ---
                  Last edited by BobSloane; 28-04-10, 18:14.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Bet the Flop,

                    as played

                    I call the river at low stakes,

                    but it may be a fold higher up,
                    http://drjff.blogspot.com/

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Why not raise Pre flop?

                      And how far off the bubble are you?

                      And callin the raise on the river if he re raises where are we then.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by Wombatman View Post
                        Am...... poketing the 2.k right there, folding the sb in most cases and if you see a flop you are ahead of UTG range all be it OOP.
                        You really want to 3 bet an utg min raise from an unknown player? Are you folding to a 4bet?

                        If he flats you how do you know you're ahead? A lot of players will flat here in a tourney with ak/aq. I'm not saying that's what he has but you're logic is seriously flawed here
                        Pining for Wa'erford

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by MegaSin View Post
                          Why not raise Pre flop?

                          And how far off the bubble are you?

                          And callin the raise on the river if he re raises where are we then.
                          reraising preflop would be pretty terrible,

                          its not a limped pot UTG has min raised preflop,


                          bet/calling the river wud be awful without any reads


                          the bubble shud be pretty insignificant in these small tourney buy ins as they pay a huge amount and the bubble is not even that big
                          http://drjff.blogspot.com/

                          Comment


                            #14
                            i would raise pre 2400 the min raise utg is just bad

                            and lead the flop for 60% of the pot

                            as played i call the river



                            "Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by DrJFF View Post
                              reraising preflop would be pretty terrible,

                              its not a limped pot UTG has min raised preflop,


                              bet/calling the river wud be awful without any reads


                              the bubble shud be pretty insignificant in these small tourney buy ins as they pay a huge amount and the bubble is not even that big

                              thats just so bad imo
                              i never give anyone much respect minraising utg pre(unless i know the guy) just looks weak and reeks of a bad player



                              "Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Originally posted by eight-ball View Post
                                i would raise pre 2400 the min raise utg is just bad

                                and lead the flop for 60% of the pot

                                as played i call the river
                                Why not peel a flop for cheap with, when it boils down to it, a pretty marginal hand. Why risk being 4 bet and having to fold?
                                Pining for Wa'erford

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by sligboi View Post
                                  Why not peel a flop for cheap with, when it boils down to it, a pretty marginal hand. Why risk being 4 bet and having to fold?
                                  why leave the guy play 66 or 33 here if he wants to set mine leave him pay for it. secondly if he is a donk and folds to this bet well then this could be a profitable play for us in the future



                                  "Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by DrJFF View Post
                                    reraising preflop would be pretty terrible,

                                    its not a limped pot UTG has min raised preflop,


                                    bet/calling the river wud be awful without any reads


                                    the bubble shud be pretty insignificant in these small tourney buy ins as they pay a huge amount and the bubble is not even that big
                                    UTG bet such a small amount. Why would calling with top pair good kicker be so bad?

                                    Also I was just curious why you would not raise pre flop. Not that I would/wouldn't. Just curious.

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by eight-ball View Post
                                      thats just so bad imo
                                      i never give anyone much respect minraising utg pre(unless i know the guy) just looks weak and reeks of a bad player
                                      it depends whether the player has bet sizing issues but with no reads you can't make these assumptions,

                                      and 3betting against a random UTG opener wil not be profitable with AJ and

                                      you can say wat you want that this is a donk move blah blah blah but its not solid or good enuf reasoning
                                      http://drjff.blogspot.com/

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Raising pre is just horrendous. Nothing good ever comes of it. Like he's gonna be jamming fairly often I'd imagine, where you'd have to fold, if he calls you are in a pretty awful spot. I really don't know why you would want to waste this hand on a squeeze here. Just use something you can't call the minraise with. I really can't overstate how bad squeezing here would be.

                                        Bet/calling river is obv terrible. No real need to even explain that. I think the river is a pretty clear b/f. I strongly dislike checking here. I'd bet pretty small though. Roughly what villain bet.
                                        Foldaramus et foldarabimus

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by MegaSin View Post
                                          UTG bet such a small amount. Why would calling with top pair good kicker be so bad?

                                          Also I was just curious why you would not raise pre flop. Not that I would/wouldn't. Just curious.
                                          can't say that a jack kicker is that good facing a normal 2.5x or 3x raise from utg but in this instance the villians raise is weak imo.
                                          unless he is holding AA and is afraid everyone is going to fold

                                          either way a raise pre is the right play here imo



                                          "Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by eight-ball View Post
                                            either way a raise pre is the right play here imo
                                            No
                                            Foldaramus et foldarabimus

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by TommyGunne View Post
                                              No
                                              sighaments


                                              not even a small one



                                              "Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by eight-ball View Post

                                                either way a raise pre is the right play here imo
                                                it really isn't
                                                http://drjff.blogspot.com/

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by DrJFF View Post
                                                  it really isn't
                                                  really......really.

                                                  And to whoever said that they'd 3bet because a min raise utg reeks of a bad player..being a bad player doen't stop him having aces, kings, queens, jacks, ak or aq.

                                                  We outplay bad players by getting to the flop more often than 3betting with marginal hands where they'll flat or shove more often than not
                                                  Pining for Wa'erford

                                                  Comment


                                                    #26
                                                    Looking at it now maybe utg is set mining or slow playing a large hand without any reads rasing here would be bad.

                                                    Call and take it from the flop

                                                    But I am still calling the small bet on the river.

                                                    Comment


                                                      #27
                                                      3bet pre if you don't like money.

                                                      I'd bet the river also. Around the 3200-4000 mark. It's pretty thin but you should be called by worse often enough to make it profitable.
                                                      Last edited by Moneymaker; 28-04-10, 21:17.

                                                      Comment


                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by TommyGunne View Post
                                                        I think the river is a pretty clear b/f. I strongly dislike checking here. I'd bet pretty small though. Roughly what villain bet.
                                                        Tommy, particularly since you're advocating betting the same amount, do you not prefer check call here? if we're beat it costs the same and we also get the benefit of his bluffs. He doesn't bluff us half as much if we bet and his bluffs gets through some of the time (when we're forced to fold).

                                                        The only advantage I can see from leading is getting more value from hands we beat (where he calls but would otherwise check back) but I think this is a small portion of his holdings.

                                                        No?

                                                        unless youre worried that sometimes when we check villain bets more than we would lead?

                                                        Comment


                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by 8611 View Post
                                                          Tommy, particularly since you're advocating betting the same amount, do you not prefer check call here? if we're beat it costs the same and we also get the benefit of his bluffs. He doesn't bluff us half as much if we bet and his bluffs gets through some of the time (when we're forced to fold).

                                                          The only advantage I can see from leading is getting more value from hands we beat (where he calls but would otherwise check back) but I think this is a small portion of his holdings.

                                                          No?

                                                          unless youre worried that sometimes when we check villain bets more than we would lead?
                                                          I'm struggling very much to see hands he turns into bluffs on the river.

                                                          He checks back a hell of a lot of hands he'll call a small bet with. KK,JJ maybe smaller aces, and maybe even weaker than that. He has very few hands weaker than that in his range to bluff with, bar maybe diamonds sometimes, and a lot of diamonds will have something somewhere they can check back. The only bluffs he really has are 78dd and 89dd probably, unless he's really weird. And he does have a lot of hands left in his range that beat us, although weightings of all them are reduced cos of the flop and turn. So I think its just far better to bet yourself.

                                                          And I dunno what the sigh is about 8-ball. Post your thoughts more, cos I'm not sure what you are getting at. I've given a relatively decent explanation of why I think 3betting would be very bad. Its not like I haven't explained myself.
                                                          Foldaramus et foldarabimus

                                                          Comment


                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by BobSloane View Post
                                                            The sb has already folded. Here is a wide enough(imo) range that UTG may continue with to a 3b. We are not ahead of it. Alot of the time he will just jam and we have to fold a sexy AJs. And yes we are oop. That much I agree with

                                                            Dead:

                                                            equity win tie pots won pots tied
                                                            Hand 0: 38.344% 35.34% 03.00% 169451384 14385638.00 { AJs }
                                                            Hand 1: 61.656% 58.66% 03.00% 281222460 14385638.00 { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+ }


                                                            ---
                                                            What is your avg. utg min raiser with an m of 18.2 opening with in a tournie like this?

                                                            22+,A8s+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,ATo+,KJo+,QJo maybe? 15.6% of hands.

                                                            x = % time we take the 2.6k pre.
                                                            y = % time he calls and we see a flop oop and risk stacking off with a hand thats good nearly 40% of the time going to the flop.
                                                            z= % time we fold to a four bet.

                                                            If x>51% we a freerolling y. But the fear of playing a pot oop and stacking off is stoping us. How -ev is fear?
                                                            Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt

                                                            Comment


                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by Wombatman View Post
                                                              What is your avg. utg min raiser with an m of 18.2 opening with in a tournie like this?

                                                              22+,A8s+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,ATo+,KJo+,QJo maybe? 15.6% of hands.

                                                              x = % time we take the 2.6k pre.
                                                              y = % time he calls and we see a flop oop and risk stacking off with a hand thats good nearly 40% of the time going to the flop.
                                                              z= % time we fold to a four bet.

                                                              If x>51% we a freerolling y. But the fear of playing a pot oop and stacking off is stoping us. How -ev is fear?
                                                              x being greater than 51% is no help at all. That doesn't make sense. Do some scenarios on it. I think it would have to be a lot greater than 50%. 70% seems fine to me. Maybe even a little bigger. We have to get through BTN too, who can still have QQ+, AK

                                                              EV the y% is not the EV that Bob posted. Its less than that, cos villain will fold his weaker hands.

                                                              You also forget to factor in that your ev of raising must be bigger than your EV of calling before you 3b.
                                                              Foldaramus et foldarabimus

                                                              Comment


                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by TommyGunne View Post
                                                                I'm struggling very much to see hands he turns into bluffs on the river.

                                                                He checks back a hell of a lot of hands he'll call a small bet with. KK,JJ maybe smaller aces, and maybe even weaker than that. He has very few hands weaker than that in his range to bluff with, bar maybe diamonds sometimes, and a lot of diamonds will have something somewhere they can check back. The only bluffs he really has are 78dd and 89dd probably, unless he's really weird. And he does have a lot of hands left in his range that beat us, although weightings of all them are reduced cos of the flop and turn. So I think its just far better to bet yourself.
                                                                I think his bluffing range is much wider because of the way we have played the hand, i.e., flat pre, check flop, lead turn, check river. as someone pointed out this looks quite like someone who has made a stab at the pot on the turn and will encourage people to have a go at the pot themselves.

                                                                but I suppose the fact that he has called the turn means he holds less bluffing hands on the river (i think this is the point you make), unless we presume his turn call is either bad or a float

                                                                meh, but i still prefer check call. if i knew something about the player it would be entirely different

                                                                Comment


                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by TommyGunne View Post
                                                                  x being greater than 51% is no help at all. That doesn't make sense. Do some scenarios on it. I think it would have to be a lot greater than 50%. 70% seems fine to me. Maybe even a little bigger. We have to get through BTN too, who can still have QQ+, AK

                                                                  EV the y% is not the EV that Bob posted. Its less than that, cos villain will fold his weaker hands.

                                                                  You also forget to factor in that your ev of raising must be bigger than your EV of calling before you 3b.
                                                                  Bob posted continuing range? I think button only calls when utg calls and his range is wide enough for him to be folding 80% of the time.

                                                                  What do we think x is?
                                                                  Last edited by Wombatman; 28-04-10, 21:57.
                                                                  Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Wombatman View Post
                                                                    What is your avg. utg min raiser with an m of 18.2 opening with in a tournie like this?

                                                                    22+,A8s+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,ATo+,KJo+,QJo maybe? 15.6% of hands.

                                                                    x = % time we take the 2.6k pre.
                                                                    y = % time he calls and we see a flop oop and risk stacking off with a hand thats good nearly 40% of the time going to the flop.
                                                                    z= % time we fold to a four bet.

                                                                    If x>51% we a freerolling y. But the fear of playing a pot oop and stacking off is stoping us. How -ev is fear?
                                                                    You've lost me.
                                                                    I genuinely don't understand how any of that supports the argument to 3b pre.
                                                                    We're ~flipping against that hand range.
                                                                    Outside of all the x,y and z stuff - you are 3betting so that he'll fold all the hands we are in good shape against and some small pairs that we're flipping against and let him jam with the upper end of his range - say TT+,AQ+ maybe and we fold losing an extra 6bbs or whatever.
                                                                    But then again he's a total unknown and could jam 55 or KJs or something and we make a bad fold. How -ev is fear of taking a flop

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by TommyGunne View Post
                                                                      I'm struggling very much to see hands he turns into bluffs on the river.

                                                                      He checks back a hell of a lot of hands he'll call a small bet with. KK,JJ maybe smaller aces, and maybe even weaker than that. He has very few hands weaker than that in his range to bluff with, bar maybe diamonds sometimes, and a lot of diamonds will have something somewhere they can check back. The only bluffs he really has are 78dd and 89dd probably, unless he's really weird. And he does have a lot of hands left in his range that beat us, although weightings of all them are reduced cos of the flop and turn. So I think its just far better to bet yourself.

                                                                      And I dunno what the sigh is about 8-ball. Post your thoughts more, cos I'm not sure what you are getting at. I've given a relatively decent explanation of why I think 3betting would be very bad. Its not like I haven't explained myself.
                                                                      i was just dissapointed that i couldn't raise



                                                                      "Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        #36
                                                                        Originally posted by Wombatman View Post
                                                                        x = % time we take the 2.6k pre.
                                                                        y = % time he calls and we see a flop oop and risk stacking off with a hand thats good nearly 40% of the time going to the flop.
                                                                        z= % time we fold to a four bet.

                                                                        If x>51% we a freerolling y. But the fear of playing a pot oop and stacking off is stoping us. How -ev is fear?
                                                                        we're freerolling if x is > 50%???????????
                                                                        are you forgetting that we lose more than 2.6k when we take a flop, plus the cash we lose when we are 4bet

                                                                        3bet pre is lol bad for the reasons Tommy said.
                                                                        I think it's close between a river b/f and c/c, the difference in EV there is a lot less than the difference between a flat and 3bet pre

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          #37
                                                                          What do people think about the bet on the turn

                                                                          Good/bad and why?

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            #38
                                                                            Originally posted by MegaSin View Post
                                                                            What do people think about the bet on the turn

                                                                            Good/bad and why?
                                                                            It's good and totally standard.

                                                                            We pretty much always have the best hand, and there are lots of worse hands that'll call. Diamond draws, KK-JJ type hands, random Tx hands, and worse Aces.

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              #39
                                                                              Raising pre is bad, terrible, woeful, not standard..... you need to explain why? Thanks to Tommy for having a go at least and engaging in the debate.

                                                                              There is 2.6k out there when it gets to us. Button is mega weak most of the time. I call most times pre when it's just me and utg but it's the buttons value that I'm after pre.

                                                                              Now forget about everything else for a minute because this seems to be confusing people for some reason.

                                                                              If we raise to 2.6k or 3K and they fold > 50% of the time do we make money in the long run? Assume we fold the flop every time if you want and always fold to a four bet of course.
                                                                              Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                #40
                                                                                If we 3b to 3k and they both fold 50% of the time we break even. Breaking even isn't making money, its breaking even. So we risk 6.5bbs to win 6.5bbs with a very decent hand that we will fold to a shove. If we call we risk 1bb to win a pot already containing 6.5bbs and possibly alot more post -and we dont end up folding a hand preflop with lots of nut potential. We also have good relative postflop position - despite being oop.
                                                                                I'm all for squeezing all sorts of hands sometimes so that I gain initiative and can then barrel off my stack but at 40bbs deep vs an unknowns utg raise this is silly thinking - maybe at 140bbs vs a co raise when I have some reads on how he will react!. Not that I think thats why you want to 3b it in the first place. You want to just look at the ev of a 3b pre - you want to fold (almost) all flops - fold to a 4bet and not compare the ev of 3betting pre to just calling. And I was attempting to engage in debate but you rolled your eyes at me first!

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  #41
                                                                                  The river was the tricky spot for me. Tbh I was never check/raising it and only put it in it the original post so as not to lead any responses.

                                                                                  I'm always flatting pre against an unknown villain and have no choice but to lead the turn in this hand.

                                                                                  Obv butt is along for the ride but we don't know anything about either player(it's just more than likely butt has rags) and AJs is a tasty hand to see a flop when needs be.

                                                                                  Obv bubble is irrelevant. FWIW most MTT's pay the top 10%...

                                                                                  From comments above I see bet/folding the riv is a line some would take. With an unknown villain, would anyone agree that check/calling is going to be better to gain some info on the villain, who could be sitting to our left for the rest of the game? By bet/folding we lose the chance to get some good info on villain IMO. So could c/c on the riv be a better line?

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    #42
                                                                                    Originally posted by Caf View Post
                                                                                    The river was the tricky spot for me. Tbh I was never check/raising it and only put it in it the original post so as not to lead any responses.

                                                                                    I'm always flatting pre against an unknown villain and have no choice but to lead the turn in this hand.

                                                                                    Obv butt is along for the ride but we don't know anything about either player(it's just more than likely butt has rags) and AJs is a tasty hand to see a flop when needs be.

                                                                                    Obv bubble is irrelevant. FWIW most MTT's pay the top 10%...

                                                                                    From comments above I see bet/folding the riv is a line some would take. With an unknown villain, would anyone agree that check/calling is going to be better to gain some info on the villain, who could be sitting to our left for the rest of the game? By bet/folding we lose the chance to get some good info on villain IMO. So could c/c on the riv be a better line?
                                                                                    the reason why bet/folding the river is better than c/c is because the villain is only going to shove hands better than yours, you need not worry of getting bluff shoved on,

                                                                                    also by betting you can dictate the size of the bet but by c/c you may have to call a big bet,

                                                                                    i actually think its closer to a c/f on the river rather than a c/c and thats why i bet the river
                                                                                    http://drjff.blogspot.com/

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      #43
                                                                                      Originally posted by DrJFF View Post
                                                                                      the reason why bet/folding the river is better than c/c is because the villain is only going to shove hands better than yours, you need not worry of getting bluff shoved on,

                                                                                      also by betting you can dictate the size of the bet but by c/c you may have to call a big bet,

                                                                                      i actually think its closer to a c/f on the river rather than a c/c and thats why i bet the river
                                                                                      I was c/f riv if his bet was bigger tbh. I can't see what hands he bets on riv that I beat regardless of bet sizing so I decided to c/c or c/f, not really knowing where I am. Surely he checks most hands I beat against me(his unknown villain). Obv it would not have got to this dilemma if I lead the riv but I understand what you're saying and why.

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        #44
                                                                                        What did he have so?

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          #45
                                                                                          Originally posted by MegaSin View Post
                                                                                          What did he have so?
                                                                                          FWIW villain held 66 and i'll be leading the riv in future

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            #46
                                                                                            Say you did Raise the river would a re raise had made you fold.

                                                                                            So correct line would be either R/F or C/C

                                                                                            Ps well done to the people thinking min raise utg with someone set mining

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              #47
                                                                                              Originally posted by MegaSin View Post
                                                                                              Say you did Raise the river would a re raise had made you fold.

                                                                                              So correct line would be either R/F or C/C

                                                                                              Ps well done to the people thinking min raise utg with someone set mining


                                                                                              By the looks of what has been said, correct line would be to r/f to dictate the amount of chips you have to put into the pot.

                                                                                              Edit: How could I call a 3bet on the riv MegaSin?
                                                                                              Last edited by Caf; 29-04-10, 21:08.

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                #48
                                                                                                Originally posted by Wombatman View Post
                                                                                                There is 2.6k out there when it gets to us. ...


                                                                                                If we raise to 2.6k or 3K and they fold > 50% of the time do we make money in the long run? Assume we fold the flop every time if you want and always fold to a four bet of course.
                                                                                                There is 2.2k out there.

                                                                                                Assuming we always fold the flop, and always to a 4 bet.

                                                                                                Raising to 3k (PSB is 3.4k);
                                                                                                We win 2.2, and lose 2.6, so we need to get a fold from both 55% of the time.
                                                                                                I doubt we do.
                                                                                                I also doubt we don't get sucked into some situations posts flop and don't fold

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  #49
                                                                                                  Originally posted by Mellor View Post
                                                                                                  There is 2.2k out there.

                                                                                                  Assuming we always fold the flop, and always to a 4 bet.

                                                                                                  Raising to 3k (PSB is 3.4k);
                                                                                                  We win 2.2, and lose 2.6, so we need to get a fold from both 55% of the time.
                                                                                                  I doubt we do.
                                                                                                  I also doubt we don't get sucked into some situations posts flop and don't fold
                                                                                                  There is 2.6k in the pot before I call pre.

                                                                                                  50+50+50+50+50+50+50+50+200+400+800+800=?

                                                                                                  The rest of you post I agree with and think 3betting pre is a crazy play. nearly always getting called and most of the time will see a turn oop. May aswell push as 3bet pre imo.

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                    #50
                                                                                                    Missed antes, makes the 50% BE,

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                      #51
                                                                                                      Originally posted by DrJFF View Post

                                                                                                      also by betting you can dictate the size of the bet but by c/c you may have to call a big bet,
                                                                                                      Originally posted by Caf View Post
                                                                                                      By the looks of what has been said, correct line would be to r/f to dictate the amount of chips you have to put into the pot.

                                                                                                      I completely disagree with this. betting can only increase the amount you are going to have to put in on the river, you are not dictating anything except the amount of chips you are putting in, apparently before folding to a reraise.

                                                                                                      Originally posted by DrJFF View Post

                                                                                                      i actually think its closer to a c/f on the river rather than a c/c and thats why i bet the river
                                                                                                      am I misinterpreting your rationale here, which is that you are betting to confirm that you are weak before folding to a reraise, rather than simply check folding and wondering if you were being bluffed, or check calling and losing chips?

                                                                                                      what is the advantage to leading and losing chips as against check calling and potentially losing chips, where the latter option also includes winning them and guarantees finding out what he has (admittedly also a prospect included in leading if he folds / flats)?

                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                        #52
                                                                                                        PM sent

                                                                                                        EDIT: I posted this in the wrong thread as I am locked to pieces. Will read this tomorrow, sober, and laugh!

                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                          #53
                                                                                                          Originally posted by 8611 View Post
                                                                                                          what is the advantage to leading and losing chips as against check calling and potentially losing chips, where the latter option also includes winning them and guarantees finding out what he has (admittedly also a prospect included in leading if he folds / flats)?
                                                                                                          Sometimes people might call things that they won't bet with.

                                                                                                          Not really sure what the rest of your post means.
                                                                                                          Foldaramus et foldarabimus

                                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                                            #54
                                                                                                            Originally posted by TommyGunne View Post
                                                                                                            Not really sure what the rest of your post means.
                                                                                                            I think Dr Jff was saying he preferred check fold to check call, and thats why he preferred leading at the pot instead.

                                                                                                            If he prefers check fold then I cannot understand why he'd bet.

                                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                                              #55
                                                                                                              8611, it is completely to do with the range he calls with and the range he bets with when checked to. DrJFF's post is correct unless villain vb's too thinly or is bluffy.

                                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                                #56
                                                                                                                Originally posted by 8611 View Post
                                                                                                                I think Dr Jff was saying he preferred check fold to check call, and thats why he preferred leading at the pot instead.

                                                                                                                If he prefers check fold then I cannot understand why he'd bet.
                                                                                                                Yeah. I've already said I have the same preferences as DrJFF too.

                                                                                                                Imagine villain has a range of [66,KK] on the river. There are more combos of KK obv. He calls with KK and jams/raises 66. So if we bet our AJ here we make profit from the times KK calls, cos there are more combos of KK than 66. We're obv folding to a raise, cos we're never good to a raise. Now if we check, he just goes ahead and checks back his KK, and vbets his 66. This makes river a c/f. So now we have b/f>c/f>>>>>c/c>b/c.

                                                                                                                So if you are in a spot like this, where villain is very likely to check a lot of hands you beat, like an ace with a small kicker, or KK, but will likely call a bet with them, then b/f>c/f>c/c.

                                                                                                                Hope that makes it clearer.
                                                                                                                Foldaramus et foldarabimus

                                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                                  #57
                                                                                                                  Originally posted by Fuzzy Logic View Post
                                                                                                                  8611, it is completely to do with the range he calls with and the range he bets with when checked to. DrJFF's post is correct unless villain vb's too thinly or is bluffy.
                                                                                                                  Originally posted by TommyGunne View Post

                                                                                                                  Hope that makes it clearer.
                                                                                                                  it does thanks. tbh I was looking at the good Dr's reasoning with the presumption that we're behind - which meant you lost less by check calling than leading. but the whole point of us being in the hand on the river is that we're also ahead a lot, which I was completely forgetting.

                                                                                                                  my instinct will still be to check call river which is obv too passive and is losing value in long run so I'll have to reconsider. i think i was too focussed on 'he only calls with worse' and limiting pot size where I don't really know where I'm at.

                                                                                                                  but just as an aside, if we are betting AJ on the basis that we are folding to a raise, and villian is a good player who knows that we will bet middling aces with the intention of folding to a raise, and given that we haven't reraised pre then we're less likely to turn up with AK, then is our position not exploitable?

                                                                                                                  and then does playing against a tricky / good player who is capable of making a play make check call more viable ??

                                                                                                                  I presume the answer is villain will also have to factor in the fact that we'll also bet river with big hands we won't fold so he'll be slower to make a move on us...

                                                                                                                  sorry if that is just me thinking out loud...

                                                                                                                  Comment

                                                                                                                  Working...
                                                                                                                  X