Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Mammy told me not to come.

[oleras]

why has no one mentioned that preacher is back?????

2 episodes and all.

[shrapnel]

2 episodes and all.

Exactly!poor showing. I blame dp tbh

[Guest]

Who are your heroes PSV?

You shouldn't have heroes if you are over the age of 12

Actually I take that back,Joe Brolly a hero of mine ,gets paid to be a complete WUM plus the kidney giveaway

[Strewelpeter]

Rigger got locked up obv

I thought they were using video reviews at this Soccer tournament

[Flushdraw]

Confed Cup Semi Final, and Chile hit the woodwork twice in the last minute of extra time v Portugal but couldn't get it over the line. It's gone to pens for anyone wanting a rail.

[DeadParrot]

Exactly!poor showing. I blame dp tbh

Did not copy.two EPS...happy days.
SOK and some good comic homages in the first ep

[Flushdraw]

Confed Cup Semi Final, and Chile hit the woodwork twice in the last minute of extra time v Portugal but couldn't get it over the line. It's gone to pens for anyone wanting a rail.

Claudio Bravo with 3 decent saves to shut out Portugal and win 3-0 for Chile!

[Solksjaer!]

Bollocks.

Sir yes SIR ?

[Solksjaer!]

Claudio Bravo with 3 decent saves to shut out Portugal and win 3-0 for Chile!

Ronaldo cant perform in these ttivial games. wtf lads take a take a holiday Christiano. climb a mountain or jump in a lake. A cousin of mine goes...

[Flushdraw]

Ronaldo cant perform in these ttivial games. wtf lads take a take a holiday Christiano. climb a mountain or jump in a lake. A cousin of mine goes...

Another Portugal penalty shootout where Ronaldo doesn't take a penalty because he wants to sit back and be the hero and win it at the end. He should be up there taking the first one.

[Solksjaer!]

Another Portugal penalty shootout where Ronaldo doesn't take a penalty because he wants to sit back and be the hero and win it at the end. He should be up there taking the first one.

should be on his joe holliers

[Guest]

Very interesting list of what MIT Review consider the 50 Smartest companies currently operating
https://www.technologyreview.com/lists/companies/2017/

Intel at 13? They've been listless for years.

On a related note, Silicon Valley is both enjoyable and terribly repetitive. They really should give it up.

[ArmaniJeans]

Another Portugal penalty shootout where Ronaldo doesn't take a penalty because he wants to sit back and be the hero and win it at the end. He should be up there taking the first one.

Isn't this criticism a close cousin of 'hey look at Ronaldo taking the first penalty yet again, he should be taking one of the later ones when the pressure is ratcheted up'?

[Flushdraw]

Isn't this criticism a close cousin of 'hey look at Ronaldo taking the first penalty yet again, he should be taking one of the later ones when the pressure is ratcheted up'?

Put your best penalty takers out first and get some goals on the board and put pressure on the other team. Think it way outweighs the advantage of keeping your best penalty takers until the end imo.

[Guest]

Put your best penalty takers out first and get some goals on the board and put pressure on the other team. Think it way outweighs the advantage of keeping your best penalty takers until the end imo.

Think I've read a a scientific paper that agrees with AJ in that they should go last. Can't remember where now, might look for it tomorrow.

[Flushdraw]

Think I've read a a scientific paper that agrees with AJ in that they should go last. Can't remember where now, might look for it tomorrow.

Think something like that was posted her before because i'm sure i read it before, but for top clubs/countries where at least half of the team should be capable of slotting a ball home from 12 yards and handling some pressure, the benefits of getting the ball in the back of the net early is immense. It lifts your team, it puts pressure on the opposition and wins you the game. Going first they always get a penalty. Going last, that won't always happen as in the case of Portugal's shootouts of late.

Ronaldo taking a penalty at any stage >>>>> Ronaldo not taking a penalty

[shano1888]

Your best penalty taker should be 1st and your second best should be 4th imo.

[newbie2]

Think something like that was posted her before because i'm sure i read it before, but for top clubs/countries where at least half of the team should be capable of slotting a ball home from 12 yards and handling some pressure, the benefits of getting the ball in the back of the net early is immense. It lifts your team, it puts pressure on the opposition and wins you the game. Going first they always get a penalty. Going last, that won't always happen as in the case of Portugal's shootouts of late.

Ronaldo taking a penalty at any stage >>>>> Ronaldo not taking a penalty

this,

[Jibzzzz]

26 day weekend, Australia and Bali bound, couldn't be happier.

[Lao Lao]

Science schience on the penalties front.

Flushdraw is spot on on this one.

Best peno taker first - goals win games.

[NoRiverRequired]

Didn't think Brexit would have any effect on ne whatsoever. In the past week ive found out that the satellite office I report to is now closing (manchester) and also today the update is that our Irish employees (excluding our sole NI colleague) are now going to be employed by a new European company reporting out of Frankfurt via Amsterdam. So my monthly trips to London have become Euro trips.

No big deal really, i work remotely anyway so reporting to a manager in Amsterdam not really that different than UK i guess but interesting how your life can be affected indirectly by the decisions others make.

[mocata]

26 day weekend, Australia and Bali bound, couldn't be happier.

Last day on Nusa lembongan, diving Manta point before we go to soften the blow. Been 2 weeks full of life highlights, yoga retreat in Ubud, dinner in kubu, and the scuba diving being the top 3.

[Lord Sir Banter]

https://mondaymorningcentreback.wordpress.com/2012/06/28/does-it-matter-what-order-you-send-players-to-take-penalties/

I recall that too, defo shouldn't be last. I'm thinking second is close to optimal.

[Hectorjelly]

Scientific study vs mish mash of biases, misunderstanding and small sample size. ,

[Guest]

Jordet, G., Hartman, E., Visscher, C. and Lemmink, K. A. P. M. (2006) Kicks from the penalty mark in soccer: The roles of stress, skill, and fatigue for kick outcomes. Journal of Sports Sciences, 1-9, Preview article.

This paper is an essential starting place for an analysis for the impact of penalty shoot-outs in competitive international football as it reports some empirical findings on events in penalty shoot-outs in the World Cup (WC), European Championships (EC) and the Copa America (CA). The results are fascinating; here is a glimpse. The percentage success rate in the World Cup is 71.2% compared to 82.7% (CA) and 84.6% (EC), possibly reflecting the greater importance and consequent pressure of the world stage. The success rate of each penalty kick changes throughout the competition:

First kick 86.6%
Second kick 81.7%
Third kick 79.3%
Fourth kick 72.5%
Fifth kick 80%
‘Sudden death’ kicks 64.3%
These results highlight the increasing pressure as the competition progresses and may also highlight the ‘best player should go first’ fallacy. The idea of ‘getting off to a good start’ by putting the best penalty taker first appears wrong as there is least pressure on this kick.

The researchers looked at the percentage success rate of players of different positions. Attackers successfully convert 83.1% of their penalties, midfield players convert 79.6% and defenders convert 73.6%.

The length of time the players have been on the pitch is also important. If they have played 30 minutes of less, their success rate is 86.7%, although, of course, this might include the occasional substitution to put a good penalty taker on the pitch. Players who have played between 31 and 90 minutes successfully convert 81.9% of penalties, and players who play longer than 91 minutes, convert 80% of their chances.

Age also seems important with younger players doing better. Players aged 22 or younger successfully convert 85.2% of attempts. Those aged between 23 and 28 convert 77.6%, and those aged over 29 years convert 78.1%.

The researchers conclude their paper by stating that their results demonstrate that the results of the penalty shoot-outs are not a lottery. Their results demonstrate that there are marked and logical patterns that repeat themselves time and again. The authors adopt a psychological stance on their results and they suggest that stress and anxiety may be important explanatory factors.

[Guest]

McGarry, T. and Franks, I. M. (2000) On winning the penalty shoot-out in soccer. Journal of Sports Sciences, 18, 401-409.

This paper employs computer simulation, probability theory and mathematical modelling to explore the effectiveness of different penalty shoot-out strategies. Their analyses suggests that there is an advantage in placing the team’s fifth best penalty taker on the first kick, the fourth best on the second kick, the third best on the third, the second best on the fourth, and the team’s best penalty taker on the fifth kick. If the competition goes to sudden death, the sixth best penalty taker should take the sixth kick and so on. The researchers also state that the ability of the team’s goalkeepers to save penalties should also be known and, if possible, substitutions should be made to place the best penalty stopper goalkeeper on the pitch at the end of the game. The researchers also recommend the use of substitutions to put better penalty takers on pitch if possible.

[careca]

Jordet, G., Hartman, E., Visscher, C. and Lemmink, K. A. P. M.

Those fuckers never took a peno in their lives. I'm with Flushdraw on this, best goes first, always.

[Solksjaer!]

im with science on this one.

You can recover from an early miss you cant from a last one. Hope this helps ye.

[Iago]

As the regular penalty taker for my senior team I always took the 'swing' (3rd) penalty in shootouts. Theory being our strikers would go 1 & 2 as they're used to being 1 on 1 with a keeper and then I'd smack home the 3rd as I was most used to taking penalties. 4th taker would be whoever felt comfortable on the day and 5th taker was the guy who took penalties if I wasn't playing. It was a formula, but it always came down to how the game played out.

Science makes sense but what it comes down to is how people are feeling on the day. Stress isn't constant and I'd rather have somebody who had a great game but normally doesn't take penalties than somebody who does but who has had a bad game/picked up a knock/had other things going on. I'm always surprised when I see professional teams go to a penalty kick with their 'designated taker' even when they have had a rubbish game.

Last season (against Burnley I think) United were really struggling and Zlatan had an absolute nightmare in front of goal. Awarded a penalty late on and when he was walking up to it I just knew he was going to miss, mentally he just wasn't in the right place for it (confirmation bias on my part I know) but I've seen it far too often to not believe there'sa co-orelation

[Raoul Duke III]

Didn't think Brexit would have any effect on ne whatsoever. In the past week ive found out that the satellite office I report to is now closing (manchester) and also today the update is that our Irish employees (excluding our sole NI colleague) are now going to be employed by a new European company reporting out of Frankfurt via Amsterdam. So my monthly trips to London have become Euro trips.

No big deal really, i work remotely anyway so reporting to a manager in Amsterdam not really that different than UK i guess but interesting how your life can be affected indirectly by the decisions others make.

I was in a very tall office in Canary Wharf last week that is being rapidly emptied out - ghost town. Palpable fear among those left.

[Flushdraw]

Ronaldo has scored 82% of penalties taken (101/123)

So if he is one of the first 3 penalty takers, then 100% of the time he scores 82% of the time.
If he takes the 5th penalty (which in 20% of shootouts, it doesn't get that far), then 80% of the time he scores 82% of the time.

Don't mind your college guys doing scientific study, simple maths says he has to take one of the first 3 pens.

When you break it down though, he's not even that clinical when it comes to pens for Portugal. He only has a 64% success rate (9/14) and a 75% success rate on shootouts as a whole (6/8). He does love the glory for sure, our Ronaldo

[Denny Crane]

McGarry, T. and Franks, I. M. (2000) On winning the penalty shoot-out in soccer. Journal of Sports Sciences, 18, 401-409.

This paper employs computer simulation, probability theory and mathematical modelling to explore the effectiveness of different penalty shoot-out strategies. Their analyses suggests that there is an advantage in placing the team’s fifth best penalty taker on the first kick, the fourth best on the second kick, the third best on the third, the second best on the fourth, and the team’s best penalty taker on the fifth kick. If the competition goes to sudden death, the sixth best penalty taker should take the sixth kick and so on. The researchers also state that the ability of the team’s goalkeepers to save penalties should also be known and, if possible, substitutions should be made to place the best penalty stopper goalkeeper on the pitch at the end of the game. The researchers also recommend the use of substitutions to put better penalty takers on pitch if possible.

Thank god for science.

[Flushdraw]

Thank god for science.

The only time i ever recall a goalkeeping substitution for a penalty shootout was when LVG subbed on Krul in the 120th minute in the World Cup QF v Costa Rica. Worked out well for him but it must be heartbreaking for a goalkeeper to be taken off at that stage.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGZfWud5__Y

[oleras]

The latest Twin peaks, 3.8, finally starts to make sense of it all..

SPOILER

I really don't know what i was watching for 58mins, either genius or self indulgent shite. Hard to see that imagery and put it together with that sweet old deaf FBI chief.

[The Situation]

There's about a hundred holes you could pick in that study Zuutroy, but probably the biggest being most teams actually tend to send their best takers up for the early kicks so the pen success curve would always peak that way in any case. It's interpreting hugely biased data and trying to make an unbiased assessment.

[AndyFatBastard]

I thought it was fairly well established that the first and fourth pelanty kicks are the most important. If you miss either of those you're highly likely to lose the shootout. So these are where your best takers should be placed.

[Guest]

The only time i ever recall a goalkeeping substitution for a penalty shootout was when LVG subbed on Krul in the 120th minute in the World Cup QF v Costa Rica. Worked out well for him but it must be heartbreaking for a goalkeeper to be taken off at that stage.

Sligo rovers did it in 2011 cup final

Last couple of mins in extra time, sent on the keeper who had saved 4 in the 2010 cup final shootout

saved 2 more and rovers won the cup

[AndyFatBastard]

There's about a hundred holes you could pick in that study Zuutroy, but probably the biggest being most teams actually tend to send their best takers up for the early kicks so the pen success curve would always peak that way in any case. It's interpreting hugely biased data and trying to make an unbiased assessment.

Yeah this is a classic example of sampling on the dependant variable.

[Solksjaer!]

Interview with Kevin Kimmage, well worth a listen. If you miss it , it will be on podcast after the show. He was a great pal of Roche so interesting to see if he mentions the juice Roche obviously had in 87. off the ball 2nite

[NewApproach]

The only time i ever recall a goalkeeping substitution for a penalty shootout was when LVG subbed on Krul in the 120th minute in the World Cup QF v Costa Rica. Worked out well for him but it must be heartbreaking for a goalkeeper to be taken off at that stage.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGZfWud5__Y

If he thinks the best use of a substitute is to change goalkeepers in the 119th minute, he's bonkers.

[ArmaniJeans]

If he thinks the best use of a substitute is to change goalkeepers in the 119th minute, he's bonkers.

Agreed, though the new additional 4th substitution in extra time would make it a more acceptable plan.

[Strewelpeter]

I was in a very tall office in Canary Wharf last week that is being rapidly emptied out - ghost town. Palpable fear among those left.

I don't know how it can come about but I get a growing sense that it won't actually happen.
There is no basis for a deal that can get passed through this parliament.

No matter how you try to play that scenario out it looks bleak in the medium term.

[Trippie]

If he thinks the best use of a substitute is to change goalkeepers in the 119th minute, he's bonkers.

I'm not so sure, with the analysis done these there might have been a chance the team didn't prepare for Krul, every penalty taker will have been giving stats on the starting keeper and what he generally does, players might have had plans in place for where they were going to shoot. Changing the keeper would create some doubt in some minds. It shouldnt as they should have prepared for everything ( Ala Ze germans). If Krul is also bigger and more explosive then the chances of getting to a ball is higher again

[Trippie]

I don't know how it can come about but I get a growing sense that it won't actually happen.
There is no basis for a deal that can get passed through this parliament.

No matter how you try to play that scenario out it looks bleak in the medium term.

So if all the companies move out anyway and then they decide brexit wont happen how fucked are they?

[Guest]

There's about a hundred holes you could pick in that study Zuutroy, but probably the biggest being most teams actually tend to send their best takers up for the early kicks so the pen success curve would always peak that way in any case. It's interpreting hugely biased data and trying to make an unbiased assessment.

Yeah this is a classic example of sampling on the dependant variable.

1.01 that you didn't read the paper and are forming your opinion on the abstract alone. Literally (in the figurative sense of the world) judging a book by the cover!

[Hooch]

What do you rugby heads think of Gatlands team selection??

Considering AWJ has been awful this tour whilst Lawes has been good & Warburton is not fully fit & out of form it should be surprising, but we're talking about Gatland here who seems to be selecting his pals on previous performances rather than form then no its not really a surprise. POM not in the squad. Teo droped after a good game against SBW.

[Guest]

Defo opening next academic year with this one.

[RichieM]

I don't know how it can come about but I get a growing sense that it won't actually happen.
There is no basis for a deal that can get passed through this parliament.

No matter how you try to play that scenario out it looks bleak in the medium term.

No chance imo - the next Tory leader is clearly waiting for a big vote to stand up and distance themselves from May and fuck her over by voting it down collapsing the govt. If not than someone really should be.

Tory old guard may get a little pissy but once the city is appeased and Sterling strengthens they will pipe down.

[Trippie]

What do you rugby heads think of Gatlands team selection??

Considering AWJ has been awful this tour whilst Lawes has been good & Warburton is not fully fit & out of form it should be surprising, but we're talking about Gatland here who seems to be selecting his pals on previous performances rather than form then no its not really a surprise. POM not in the squad. Teo droped after a good game against SBW.

I don't think you can change both starting locks, lineout combinations will be effected badly. Warburton will disrupts rucks a lot more than POM, POM doesnt offer as much off bench when losing, stander can come on and make a bigger difference carrying the ball.

I dont think Teo had a good game,yes defensively he stopped sonny bill a few times, but stopping sbw is not the key to beating the AB's, Teo didnt pass the ball and blew a couple of 3v2's. When the spaces are out wide, we need to be able to exploit them especially with Naholo defending.

[RichieM]

What do you rugby heads think of Gatlands team selection??

Considering AWJ has been awful this tour whilst Lawes has been good & Warburton is not fully fit & out of form it should be surprising, but we're talking about Gatland here who seems to be selecting his pals on previous performances rather than form then no its not really a surprise. POM not in the squad. Teo droped after a good game against SBW.

POM was out muscled and didn't manage to slow the ball down wont win with him on the pitch imo so need to try something.

Dropping Teo adds a little bit of an unknown to the Lions games, he played well in deference but in attack is a little bit to ABC.

Had to make changes to get a win, playing safe and picking the same guys would just lead to us getting pasted at the weekend imo. The scoreboard could and tbh should have been a lot worse last weekend.

AWJ dosnt really deserve his shirt imo so would agree there, lawes with henderson as an impact would be a better selection in my opinion.

[mcnugget]

Don't really get the Gatland hate, sure he is not full of the joys of life but he is a good operator and has handled the tour well apart from the six additions. He is certainly not picking his pals or he wouldn't have dropped the tour captain or knocked halfpenny out of the 23. He has consistently shown courage in team selection going back to his justified BOD call in 13.

[Trippie]

I would agree with how he has handled it, done well for the most part. I think its impossible to beat the all blacks playing 1-3-3-1 though as this shape is very vulnerable to turnover attack and that's what they are the best in the world at. It's impossible to have complex attack structures and shapes in place in such a short space of time so this one is very easy to play and execute.

[The Situation]

1.01 that you didn't read the paper and are forming your opinion on the abstract alone. Literally (in the figurative sense of the world) judging a book by the cover!

Well from you reading it tell me how his point re putting the best penalty taker last is legitimate?

If every team were to do that and you were to take a sample in ten years the data would look completely different and a new analysis may conclude you should put the best player first as the pen success rate was higher at pen 4/5.

[LuckyLloyd]

http://m.independent.ie/irish-news/courts/you-are-free-to-go-paul-murphy-and-five-codefendants-in-jobstown-trial-found-not-guilty-35870535.html

What an unseemly charade from sending 8 Gardai to arrest Paul Murphy at dawn to pushing for the most serious charges available. Thankfully the efforts to quell political dissent and discourage peaceful protest have failed. That the Gardai statements were contradicted by their own video footage will unfortunately not be followed up on of course.

That Joan Burton and the Labour Party were consigned to political irrelevancy in the interim is a cherry on top of the whole thing.

[elbows]

The latest Twin peaks, 3.8, finally starts to make sense of it all..

SPOILER

I really don't know what i was watching for 58mins, either genius or self indulgent shite. Hard to see that imagery and put it together with that sweet old deaf FBI chief.

SPOILER

Got a light

[Jibzzzz]

26 day weekend, Australia and Bali bound, couldn't be happier.

First leg to Dubai, all 4 of us travelling bumped to business class.

Let the run good continue.

Cheers Emirates

[hotspur]

Speaking of taking penalties, read this the other day from Anderson:

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/manchester-united-news-anderson-penalty-2008-champions-league-final-a7810771.html

[Guest]

Well from you reading it tell me how his point re putting the best penalty taker last is legitimate?

The mathematical modelling paper shows that the early penalties are less important in determining the outcome in that [P(lose shootout if miss)-P(win shootout if miss)] is much lower when the score is 1-0 going second than when it's 4-3. When they run the simulation with the relative stress of each penalty and the P(score) of each player taken into account, the optimal order is 5,4,3,2,1 in order of skill.

The other paper does multi-variate analysis where they try to strip out player skill and find the same thing from real shootout data.

I guess in times of high pressure you want the most skilful player there because they're most likely to be closer to their optimal arousal level for the situation than a player with less technical ability. Look at the huge dropoff between the success rates for penalties 4/5 and sudden death. There's no way that your 5th choice penalty taker is that far ahead of your 6th choice, so it has be down to pressure.

[Solksjaer!]

So which peno carries the more pressure? The answer to that is where you put your best peno taker. Id say the tension builds so at the back end. Who remembers the 1st peno taker ? whereas who can forget John Terry :-)

[DeadParrot]

Shilling money off link for oneplus phones and accessories added to my sig.