Irish Poker Boards
Register Arcade FAQ Members List Calendar Mark Forums Read

Go Back   Irish Poker Boards > Poker > Staking / Selling %
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 23-07-12, 01:13   #81
Flushdraw
The Gamesmaster
 
Flushdraw's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Swieqi, Sunny Malta
Posts: 21,205
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mellor View Post
Yeah number are right Ricky DBC. Awful awful start.
Winners were
Kuivanen $100 @ 1.61 and
Kongo $100 @ 2.10

I have to be willing to accept the variance on an +EV underdog. But all 3 short favourites losing is sickening. Two were via split decision. ugh. Lombard losing costs us a lot, as did Pineda's first round KO.
Catch up Mellor
Flushdraw is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks From:
Old 23-07-12, 02:00   #82
Lord Sir Christmas
Jingle Bells m8
 
Lord Sir Christmas's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: In the Office
Posts: 20,973
I believe in you.
__________________
X can be anything, any number, that is what’s CRAZY about X.
Because X doesn’t roll like that, because X can’t be pinned down!

$ Free Travel Credit with Airbnb $
Lord Sir Christmas is offline   Reply With Quote
2 Thanks From:
Old 23-07-12, 08:02   #83
TomD
Member
 
TomD's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: happily ever after
Posts: 1,750
The scoring in the Lombard fight was piss poor. How they agve that the Boetch i'll never know.
TomD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 23-07-12, 08:12   #84
FeetMagic
Member
 
FeetMagic's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 4,519
What are Mellor's moneybookers details lads?

Thanks Keane for the offer but I think NewApproach is going to sort me out, it's slightly handier as I want to take some cash off Stars. Cheers though!
FeetMagic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 30-07-12, 23:57   #85
Mellor
Member
 
Mellor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Location: Location:
Posts: 9,425
Week 2 coming up.
Some fighters out to injury in late stages. A bit of movement in the market in one or two fights.
Making my book and cross checking prices.

I'll be uploading the rest of the funds to sports book accounts soon too.
__________________

€35 Betfair bonus
Mellor is offline   Reply With Quote
2 Thanks From:
Old 03-08-12, 07:33   #86
Mellor
Member
 
Mellor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Location: Location:
Posts: 9,425
[QUOTE=Mellor;580713]EVENT 2- UFC on FOX - SHOGUN Vs VERA



Main Card

Interesting card in all.
Two high ranking 205lb matches as the co-main and main events. The most impressive winner from the two is next to fight Jon 'Bones' Jones. Strangely Jones has already beaten all 4 guys involved.

Maurício Rua (2/7) vrs Brandon Vera (3/1)
When Shogun shows up he is a force in the octagon. His last 4 fights have been great to watch, and i'm a little surprised that he is in here verses Vera. Who has never amounted to anything. Vera has suffered from a stage fright in the past. and being in the main event, as a huge underdog won't help. This is the fight where Shogun proves he is still top 3 LHW
$100 on Shogun @ 2/7


Lyoto Machida (10/3) vrs Ryan Bader (3/1)
Machida has been a yo-yo fighter. Jones and Shogun have been the only guys to out class him. As long as still has that elusive style he'll pick Bader apart. Macida has been the only person to take any thing from Jones and Bader was dropped by.
$150 on Johnson @ 11/10

Joe Lauzon (4/5) vrs Jamie Varner (11/10)
This is a flip, Lauzon wins on the ground and Varner wins standing. Varner impressed a lot last time out. The US line is 20/23 for each, which is prob about right. Paddy opened way too wide on Varner and have shortened to 11/10, which is still value imo. Varner is a ex WEC champ and shouldn't be wrote off verses the guy with more UFC time. I was hoping the line would swing back if the bookies took a lot on Lauson as his odds got better but that hasn't happened.
$80 on Varner @ 11/10

Mike Swick (10/21) vrs DaMarques Johnson (7/4)
On history, Mike Swick is the more rounded fighter. And pip's Johnson on experience. But he hasn't fought since Feb 2010. A two and a half year layoff is a lot. It's not like he was just taking a break either, he had a stomach condition which affected his diet (and there muscle maintenance), and then injured his knee. A less extreme version of the Brock Lesnar situation. I'll hold off final judgement until the weigh-in, i'll not be surprised if Johnson grinds out a win verses a rusty Swick, as a slight underdog i'm taking Johnson
$75 on Johnson @ 11/10 tentative - I'll confirm before the fight


Preliminary card
Cole Miller (5/6) v Nam Phan (11/10)
I like this fight. Nam Phan is annoying, but he is a good striker. I can definitely see this one going to the judges, and expect Phan to get there on work rate and points. It's very close though, imo its should be split down the middle.
$70 on Nam Phan @ 11/10
$50 on fight of the night 11/2

Phil Davis (1/6) vrs Wagner Prado (9/2)
Wagner is an alternate, and quite a few levels below Davis. This should be an easy win, but he'll also want to impress to get back in the 205lb picture. This will be over fast. Davis to duck under a punch and get the takedown, and either end it with strikes or take the choke when Prado leaves it open. 8/1 for quickest fight is tempting. But Davis is too cautious and clinical.
$100 on Phil Davis @ 1/6

Josh Grispi (10/17) vrs Rani Yahya (7/5)
Grispi is a deserving favourite. But I don't think there's can be confidence in a bet here. Yahya is pretty unknown, but from what I've read, he is being under-rated here and the bookies line is spot on.

Phil De Fries (5/11) vrs (9/5) Oli Thompson
Heavyweights for the sake of heavyweights. These guys are here to make up numbers, neither is amounting to anything in the division. Neither are of the calibre of the athletic HWs. Both are English, not that's that's relevant. De Fries will prob take this, but Im not willing to bet where it comes down to a which power shot lands.

Manvel Gamburyan (5/8) vrs Michihiro Omigawa (13/10)
I'm a fan of Manny. His recent form sells him short, like many a defeat to Aldo sent him on a bad run. Aldo crushes souls. I think that run has kept his price high enough for value.
$75 on Manvel Gamburyan @ 5/8

John Morgaga (13/8) vrs Ulysses gomez (4/7)
The fans fancy Gomez, the bookies fancy Gomez. Some pro gamblers are suggesting that Morgaga could be under valued here. I'm not convinced, I hate the value bet on a big dog. Its very thin at best here. I don't like either.
__________________

€35 Betfair bonus
Mellor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-12, 08:00   #87
TomD
Member
 
TomD's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: happily ever after
Posts: 1,750
So glad you didnt bet against Rani Yahya.
TomD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-12, 08:03   #88
Flushdraw
The Gamesmaster
 
Flushdraw's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Swieqi, Sunny Malta
Posts: 21,205
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mellor View Post
Preliminary card
Cole Miller (5/6) v Nam Phan (11/10)
I like this fight. Nam Phan is annoying, but he is a good striker. I can definitely see this one going to the judges, and expect Phan to get there on work rate and points. It's very close though, imo its should be split down the middle.
$70 on Nam Phan @ 11/10
$50 on fight of the night 11/2

Phil Davis (1/6) vrs Wagner Prado (9/2)
Wagner is an alternate, and quite a few levels below Davis. This should be an easy win, but he'll also want to impress to get back in the 205lb picture. This will be over fast. Davis to duck under a punch and get the takedown, and either end it with strikes or take the choke when Prado leaves it open. 8/1 for quickest fight is tempting. But Davis is too cautious and clinical.
$100 on Phil Davis @ 1/6.
Just a quick question. Do many prelim fights get 'fight of the night'
And, is it worth risking $100 on a 1/6 shot? Would there not be better value on a bet for the fight to be over inside the distance, or how the fight ends? gl anyways, win it all!
Flushdraw is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-12, 10:24   #89
Mellor
Member
 
Mellor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Location: Location:
Posts: 9,425
Quote:
Originally Posted by TomD View Post
So glad you didnt bet against Rani Yahya.
I've only seen him fight once or twice, nothing wrong with losing to Mendes and a win over Brown is top of the field IMO.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Flushdraw View Post
Just a quick question. Do many prelim fights get 'fight of the night'
And, is it worth risking $100 on a 1/6 shot? Would there not be better value on a bet for the fight to be over inside the distance, or how the fight ends? gl anyways, win it all!
Good question Tony,

Its a total mismatch. The odds reflect that, I see it a much bigger risk than the others, for a lower return obviously. No bookie is offering odds of how the fight ends or inside distance etc. I actually wanted to take Davis by sub too.
The fight has potential for the fastest fight market, but some KO artist will prob sneak in.

It's not uncommon for prelim fights to get FotN. It's more conmon on the main card, but that's normally because main card fights are usually very evenly matched, and mix matches normally happen on the undercard with debuts and rising fighters. The main events on this card are very one sided, they be over fast regardless of the result, favourite or upset. Miller v Phan as the potential to go 3 rounds standing. The other close fights are striker vrs grappler which tends to be more technical, looking for openings etc. Its obv a longer shot, but I'm happy with it given history. Smaller guys get FotN more too
Mellor is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks From:
Old 03-08-12, 10:30   #90
Emmet
Bashful the next day
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 16,120
Are we betting on things we think represent good value?

I mean, for a 1/6 (happens in bookies eyes ~81% of the time) shot to represent value, you pretty much want it to be a 1/15 (happens ~ 95% of the time in reality) type shot imo.

Odds on betting is about finding these consistent gaps and hammering them into the long run.

When you spot a 10/11 price on someone you make a 1/2 winner, its a lot easier to spot that value, I think it's harder on the other side of the curve, but that's just an opinion.
Emmet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-12, 14:55   #91
Mellor
Member
 
Mellor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Location: Location:
Posts: 9,425
Quote:
Originally Posted by Emmet View Post
Are we betting on things we think represent good value?

I mean, for a 1/6 (happens in bookies eyes ~81% of the time) shot to represent value, you pretty much want it to be a 1/15 (happens ~ 95% of the time in reality) type shot imo.
How did you arrive at 95%?
That's a 1/19 shot btw. I disagree that we need to be looking for chance that high in order to bet on a 1/6 shot.
Any thing above the BE% represents value. The more it's above the more value, but you have to be willing to take thinner edges.
For reference, I had my line at 90% for Davis. Assuming that's accurate, I don't see a reason not to bet it.


Quote:
Odds on betting is about finding these consistent gaps and hammering them into the long run.

When you spot a 10/11 price on someone you make a 1/2 winner, its a lot easier to spot that value, I think it's harder on the other side of the curve, but that's just an opinion.
A profitable return is also about volume. A 1/2 winner offered at 10/11 is great when you can get it, but it's not exactly very common. Holding out for a edge like that means passing on +EV bets. The former should have a greater ROI, but the latter could show a greater return overall due to volume.

Last edited by Mellor; 03-08-12 at 15:00.
Mellor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-12, 05:05   #92
Mellor
Member
 
Mellor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Location: Location:
Posts: 9,425
Just watched the Weigh-ins there.

General Thoughts;

Phil Davis vrs Wagner Prado
Prado making his UFC debut. He looked soft, he's not out on shape or anything, but not in the condition of the top 205ers in the UFC. Gyno . He looked very happy to be making his debut, smiling, joking, posing. I can't fault him for being happy, but he didn't look mentally in the right place either.

Phil Davis looked like Phil Davis. Physically impressive as ever.

Miller vrs Phan
Both made 145lbs. Miller looked like it was a tough cut. Hopefully this is the case and works in our favour in round 3. He really does tower over Phan.

Swick vrs Johnson
Both looked really good and this should be a good fight.

Lauzon vrs Varner
Varner weighed in at 156 and looked relived tbh. But doesn't look like it was a hard cut. Prob just aiming to avoid extra cutting.
Lauzon looks focused. Should be a great fight.

Machida vrs Bader
Bader looks good, as usual. Complete block of a fighter.
Machida weighed in at 201.
I was concerned/surprised at first. But he was always a little light. He went 16-0 and was physically untouchable. He put on a bit of mass to compete with the rest of the guys. And suddenly he lacked lustre vrs Shogun and then Rampage of all people was catching him.
I'm glad to see the dragon back.


Shogun vrs Vera
Vera was 203, but I think he just over cut to be safe.
Shogun was bang on.
I think one comes down to which Shogun turns up,
__________________

€35 Betfair bonus
Mellor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-12, 05:53   #93
poprock
Member
 
poprock's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,313
I cannot understand how on one card, you can manage to find 7 or 8 bets where you find plus ev
poprock is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks From:
Old 04-08-12, 08:28   #94
Mellor
Member
 
Mellor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Location: Location:
Posts: 9,425
Betting with more than one bookie reduces the overround a lot.
Reducing the bookies margin means its harder for them the nail the % chance, which means more +EV bets should be there. How much more is subjective of course.

Any input on the card?
__________________

€35 Betfair bonus
Mellor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-12, 09:30   #95
Keane
Martingale Enthusiast
 
Keane's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Under the sea
Posts: 12,137
Send a message via MSN to Keane
I can't see the bookmakers putting a whole heap of resources into MMA cards like this, in which case it's Mellor handicapping against seven or eight different lone individuals. Perfectly reasonable to think that for each fight at least one of those individuals will set an incorrect price.

I regularly bet on 75-100% of the GAA games in a given weekend, which is no problem considering you regular see lines where a 2.5pt HC will be offered at as little as 1.83 or as much as 2.1 as here . Someone has to be wrong there, right?

I'd imagine it's very similar in MMA, the resources just aren't there to keep it sharp on the bookies side.
__________________
GAA Live Scores
Keane is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-12, 17:25   #96
Lord Sir Christmas
Jingle Bells m8
 
Lord Sir Christmas's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: In the Office
Posts: 20,973
Go team. When is this on?
__________________
X can be anything, any number, that is what’s CRAZY about X.
Because X doesn’t roll like that, because X can’t be pinned down!

$ Free Travel Credit with Airbnb $
Lord Sir Christmas is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-12, 00:51   #97
Mellor
Member
 
Mellor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Location: Location:
Posts: 9,425
It's on now rigger.
Prelim card is just over.
Manny gamburian won, Nam Phan won. The manny fight is prob FotN so far.
Phil Davis fight was no contest. Accidential eye poke and Prago couldn't continue.
Mellor is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks From:
Old 05-08-12, 00:54   #98
ghostface
Drunken assault fan
 
ghostface's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 14,593
Cracking fight on right now!! Lauzon and Varner are at war, Phan fight earlier was excellent
ghostface is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-12, 00:58   #99
MegaSin
Member
 
MegaSin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Ballymun : (
Posts: 4,074
Any links for this?
MegaSin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-12, 00:59   #100
ghostface
Drunken assault fan
 
ghostface's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 14,593
Quote:
Originally Posted by MegaSin View Post
Any links for this?
http://www.thefirstrow.eu/watch/1338...n-vs-vera.html

2 light heavyweight fights left
ghostface is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks From:
Reply

  Irish Poker Boards > Poker > Staking / Selling %

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT. The time now is 17:48.