Golf Betting Log

[elbows]

I am setting this up to keep a track of my golf betting and hopefully get some thoughts and suggestions along the way.

I have never done a betting log before and since the majority of my punting is in golf I thought it a good place to start.

I generally wait until the cut to make bets but also have some before the off if someone takes my fancy. Picking winners in golf is very difficult as I am sure most of you know.

I don't use betfair as I found that I would be backing and laying 20 guys to make a book and while profitable was very time consuming and don't have the freedoms I once had to be doing it anymore.

I am giving myself a bank of €1,000 and using a €10 a point.

I have 2 to start with this week.

Chris Kirk in Sony Open 33/1 2pts E/W
Darren Fichardt 80/1 1pt E/W

Chris Kirk was 5th in this last year and played pretty well last week finishing mid table.

Won the McGladrey Classic in October on the seeside course in Sea Island and also was 2nd in the AT&T Pro Am. So clearly doesn't mind playing in the wind.

Darren Fichardt has a good record in events in Africa having won last year and 2nd (not at this course mind you) I think 80/1 is too big.

[underachievement]

best of luck with this. do a bit of golf punting myself so will be interested to see how it works out for you.
i use golfbettingsystem.co.uk for alot of the course & form stats, but i'd imagine you have all the tricks of the trade already. gl.

[nicnicnic]

Elbows I've moved this thread to the personal log forum as this is where it belongs - feel free to cross post your selections in the general golfbetting thread in the gambling forum and best of luck with it.

[elbows]

Elbows I've moved this thread to the personal log forum as this is where it belongs - feel free to cross post your selections in the general golfbetting thread in the gambling forum and best of luck with it.

How is your punting going. You were pretty quiet last year on the thread compared to previous years. I always looked out for your bets.

Think Donald might have a big year. I was never his greatest fan but First time he competed in a major in a long time last year while not playing at his best. Might do well in the masters.

[elbows]

Forgot to mention earlier. One of the main things I look out for when in running betting is for guys who go a few shots clear at halfway who are not good closers. For example Kucher. Also a large % of halfway leaders don't go on to win. (think there was a run of 12 tourneys in a row on the pga tour last year)

You then generally get good prices on guys who are 6 back of the leader but only 2/3 back of 2nd.

[elbows]

best of luck with this. do a bit of golf punting myself so will be interested to see how it works out for you.
i use golfbettingsystem.co.uk for alot of the course & form stats, but i'd imagine you have all the tricks of the trade already. gl.

Yeah I find that good as well. Dave Tindell posts a lot of the course form and current form (good and bad) which is handy to sift through players.

[nicnicnic]

How is your punting going. You were pretty quiet last year on the thread compared to previous years. I always looked out for your bets.

Think Donald might have a big year. I was never his greatest fan but First time he competed in a major in a long time last year while not playing at his best. Might do well in the masters.

last year was pretty good - hit a fantastic run for two months after the US open after a bad enough start to the year. That's the thing about punting golf you can hit extended barron spells and have to keep the faith, I guess it a bit like grinding MTT's in poker.

I've just become very weary to put up golfers pre tournament because of the variance and hate to steer people onto losers. Also most of what I bet is in running, probably over 80%. I was then often finding myself in a situation like last week where I put up Woodland pre tournament on twitter but ended up having a good week as I backed Zack at a few stages over the weekend. I then end up feeling guilty about putting folk onto woodland. I still put up the odd one on twitter but only if I think there's a lot of value in the price.


A guy I'll be interested in the desert swing in a couple of weeks time is Peter Hanson, He was just getting over a bad injury at the end of the year which should be sorted now and I'd expect he'll back to his best and a bit over priced. Another of interest for similar reasons is Quiros. Both have excellent records on desert courses.

[elbows]

Had a nibble at Kevin Foley at 750/1 €5 ew. Rookie who won first time out on web.com last year. only 4 off lead. A bit speculative but he is 750 with corals and all other shops hovering around 125's

[elbows]

No value in sa. Missed dubuisson in running. Think bae is decent value in hawaii at 40/1. Watched him yesterday and he was off but he showed great resilliance when winning last year depite losing his swing mid final round. 1pt ew with corals.

[elbows]

Backed dubuisson at 9/1 2pts win

[The Situation]

Don't really get your reasons for not using betfair.

[elbows]

Don't really get your reasons for not using betfair.

Generally back e/w. Should really start using it again for my win only bets.

[elbows]

Reasonable start.

Hit the post with Kirk. He didn't hole a putt outside 10ft from the end of round 1 and only lost by a shot.

I think I will do a running bank rather than points system.

Starting Bank €1,000
Weekly Return €75 (€185 from €110 Invested)
End Bank €1,075

Early scan points at Garrigus in the states. Need to filter through the information a bit more. Manassero and Oleson in Abu Dhabi. Peter Hanson and Quiros for next week definitely Nicky. I will probably make final decision tomorrow evening. Olseon and Manaserro prices look quite juicy at 80/1 and 70/1 respectively.

[elbows]

I will concentrate on the European Tour First.

There are a lot of top pros playing in this which can mean short price winners but also gives opportunities for value elsewhere. I loved this tourney because it was all aboard the Kaymer train but that train has left the station and don't see it coming back too soon.

Abu Dhabi is a long course 7,600 yards and this puts me off Manassero who I mentioned as a possible selection. It does not put me off my other selection. Thorbjorn Oleson. He finished 2nd and 8th in his last 2 starts here and practices a good bit in Dubai so he likes the desert. He also has form on in Dubai.

He has no recent form (last tourney was in early December) and had a poor end to the season last year but I expect him to come come out all guns blazing around a course he clearly likes.

I missed the 80/1 but 70/1 still represents value to me. €10 E/W

[elbows]

The Tourney in the states is being played in La Quinta in California and they play 3 different courses. This has thrown up a mixture of long and short hitters doing well and also has been good to Rookies in the past few years.

Going for a rookie Hudson Swafford. Very impressive stats from last weeks sony open and held himself together very well to finish tied 8th. Looks like the type of player to suit these courses. Living in florida and a clear liking for Bermuda greens. 175/1. €5 e/w.

[thedini]

The Tourney in the states is being played in La Quinta in California and they play 3 different courses. This has thrown up a mixture of long and short hitters doing well and also has been good to Rookies in the past few years.

Going for a rookie Hudson Swafford. Very impressive stats from last weeks sony open and held himself together very well to finish tied 8th. Looks like the type of player to suit these courses. Living in florida and a clear liking for Bermuda greens. 175/1. €5 e/w.

elbows, gl with your betting, but I just can't ever get my head around somebody taking 175 about a 280/1 shot.

[elbows]

elbows, gl with your betting, but I just can't ever get my head around somebody taking 175 about a 280/1 shot.

I generally check betfair to see the difference between the bookies and them. Price was at 220/1 when I checked. As I said I am backing e/w and I have him priced a lot less based on his performance last week. I think he is being underestimated.

[elbows]

Wasn't going to do any more pretourney but the kind people at corals offered me a free €10 bet in running in Abu Dhabi with €10 staked before the start.

Going to back Peter Hanson.

Nicky mentioned him and his record in the desert is very good.

€5 e/w 40/1 and he tees off late so I should be able to get the same again once I wake up tomorrow morning so basically getting 80/1 which is fantastic odds.

[nicnicnic]

Wasn't going to do any more pretourney but the kind people at corals offered me a free €10 bet in running in Abu Dhabi with €10 staked before the start.

Going to back Peter Hanson.

Nicky mentioned him and his record in the desert is very good.

€5 e/w 40/1 and he tees off late so I should be able to get the same again once I wake up tomorrow morning so basically getting 80/1 which is fantastic odds.

:-) I didn't end up doing either him of Quiros. fwiw I had 100 on Luiten at 30/1 on betfair fixed odds ( always worth checking as they are often best price and can be slightly better then the exchange at times as was case here with Luiten, they were a shade better on Rory yesterday aswell ) and had 40 on exchange on Quesne at 150s.

[elbows]

:-) I didn't end up doing either him of Quiros. fwiw I had 100 on Luiten at 30/1 on betfair fixed odds ( always worth checking as they are often best price and can be slightly better then the exchange at times as was case here with Luiten, they were a shade better on Rory yesterday aswell ) and had 40 on exchange on Quesne at 150s.

Thanks Nicky. They are great prices alright. I like quense but he generally starts slow so if he is within 4 or 5 I might have a pop in running. Made a nice few quid on him in italy last year. Think he was 4 or 5 back going into the final day and won

[elbows]

Corals were down due to site maintenance this morning and by the time I got to work Hanson was 28/1 but I took it as my free bet so combined odds of 68/1 still a great price.

A point to note for the states. The three courses are rotated so one thing to watch out for are players who play the easiest course last who are a bit further back - The Nicklaus Course was easiest followed by Palmer and then La Quinta in 2013. I expect to have a few more bets at Halfway.

looks like all 3 courses are taking a hammering.

[elbows]

Decided to back Jin Jeong in Abu Dhabi. He was very impressive when winning in Perth Last year beating Ross Fisher in a playoff. Won the British Amateur Championship in 2010 and was Amateur world number 1. He also finished in the top 20 in the Open as an Amateur. So he can handle the big stage.

250/1 with Corals seems too big considering he is 3 back and has a morning tee time. 5 e/w.

[elbows]

Another Profitable week with Leonard getting a place in the end without ever really challenging winner. I did not post Leonard at the time as I was away and did it on my phone. Bet was 5 e/w 125/1 first 4 1/4 with Skybet. Happy with bets on Hanson, Jeong and Swafford. Oleson was a bit speculative considering no recent form.

Week Starting Bank €1,075
Weekly Return €101.25 (€161.25 from €60 Invested)
End Bank €1,176.25

I will do some research for Qatar and Farmers now as didn't get the chance today.

[elbows]

I will do Qatar first.

Both Hanson and Quiros are a bit skinny and didn't think I would do anything pre tourney but have a couple of outsiders

1st up is David Howell finished 22nd last year and has 5 top tens since 2002 with a 5th in 2011. Not a great start to the year but he has great form here in the past and at 125/1 looks too big

2nd is Brett Rumford. Has had a 3rd place finish in this in 2010 and T20 and T22 last 2 years. He won back to back last year. He had a MC last week but finished 10th the week before. 125/1 also too big

5 ew on both

[elbows]

In the states really fancy Jimmy Walker.

4th last year 8th the year before. Won in Hawaii for 2nd win of 2014 season.

Think 35/1 is too big even with Tiger. 20 e/w

Probably going to follow this guy off a cliff but he really impresses me.

5 ew on Hudson Swafford. His driving accuracy, driving distance and GIR stats are off the charts last 2 weeks and I think this will help hugely here. 175/1 5 ew

[redzerdrog]

Best of luck I do a small bit of golf betting myself only €5 per point but had a great year last year, also have a log running over on boards.

My first port of call each week to find course/recent form is https://sites.google.com/site/smartgolfbets/

[elbows]

Best of luck I do a small bit of golf betting myself only €5 per point but had a great year last year, also have a log running over on boards.

My first port of call each week to find course/recent form is https://sites.google.com/site/smartgolfbets/

Cheers have not seen that one.

Nice to have recent form and tourney form on 1 page. Best of luck this year.

Read your log on boards nice run indeed last year. I was between Rumford and Soren Hansen this week, thought they were both decent prices.

[elbows]

Backed Hoey 10 ew at 100/1. Playing well at the moment and -2 through 8 holes.

[elbows]

Illonen looks too big at 80/1 with Boyles 10 e/w.

[elbows]

5 ew on Bae in the us 150/1 with Boyles wrong price.

[Silver-Tiger]

Hmmmm

[elbows]

Hmmmm

???

[accomputers.ie]

Hate tournaments with more than one course. Had tigger backed to be first round leader

[elbows]

Backed dubuisson 5ew 125/1

[elbows]

Backed stallings 10 ew at 80's

[elbows]

Romero 5 ew 150/1

[elbows]

Note for johan carlson in dubai

[elbows]

Great week with a playoff loss and a winner both at 80/1. Too many bets pretourney and a lot of bets in the states but I did not fancy guys at the top of the leaderboard and could have had more bets but missed some prices. I used a 10 free bet also.

Week Starting Bank €1,176.25
Weekly Profit €1,010 (€1,170 from €160 Invested)
End Bank €2,186.25

Have 2 backed for this week.

Johan Carlsson in dubai, he was 7th in Abu Dhabi and 16th last week. 80/1 with PP 6 places

Really like the look of him and he will win soon and seems to like the desert.

Brandon Steele in Phoenix

5th and 6th in this last 2 years. I back him twice a year at here and in Texas.

He has won and is not a final day fader,

He finished with a nice 69 in the farmers and pretty similar form to last year when finishing 6th.

He is a real horse for this course and 70/1 is a good price

10 ew on both

[elbows]

Also going with Rock in Dubai.

150/1 he has 3 top 20's including a 7th last year.

Good final round last week and has won in the desert.

10 ew

[elbows]

Soren Hansen 10 e/w 100/1

[elbows]

Scott piercy 66/1
10 ew

[elbows]

Streelman 125/1 10 ew

[elbows]

Spencer levin 10 ew 125/1

[elbows]

Frustrating week with Rock and Steele going close to a decent payout. Only bet I was unhappy with was Streelman - made no sense. At least got some money back from Rock on the E/W split four ways

Week Starting Bank €2,186.25
Weekly Loss €43.75 (€96.25 from €140 Invested)
End Bank €2,142.50

[elbows]

Note for Dresses and Spencer Levin

[elbows]

In the states its the at&t pro am. Love this tourney played around Pebble Beach. Spyglass hil and monteray peninsula cc. Dj and phil have great recorda here but prices reflect that. One I think is being forgotten about a bit is GMAC. Obviously the courses are set up a bit easier but Gmac loves short courses with small greens. 40/1 is a smashing price. I also like Chris Kirk. Played ok last week around a course that doesn't suit him. This test will be more to his liking. I am very happy to see 40/1 about Kirk. 2nd last year and has a 2nd place this year in Hawaii where there were small greens. Another small green specialist is Aaron Baddley. Has a good record here also. 110/1 20, 20 and 10 ew. Nothing in Joburg open as too many south africans with form at only ok prices.

[underachievement]

just lookin at stats myself & baddeley made the shortlist alright. might have a small e/w on bryce molder, decent course form n steadily improvin this season without doin anything spectacular.
stadler 3rd last year, now he got the monkey off his back with the 1st win might be no stopping him.
might just stick to singles this wk gl

[elbows]

just lookin at stats myself & baddeley made the shortlist alright. might have a small e/w on bryce molder, decent course form n steadily improvin this season without doin anything spectacular.
stadler 3rd last year, now he got the monkey off his back with the 1st win might be no stopping him.
might just stick to singles this wk gl

Molder reminds me of sneds a bit but not as good a version. He has a good record here alright but he hasn't had a top 10 in over a year which for me is a big negative but he is a good price. I would never have backed stadler because he was ropy when near the lead. Back to back on pga tour is so tough but in fairness to him besides a few iffy putts and 1 bad swing he played great. Delighted he beat Bubba after bubba took that drop on the saturday. All 3 courses are less than 7, 000. This is gmacs 1st at&t I think and first event of 2014 but these short courses with small greens are made for him. He has a decent record first time out after christmas and He was 50/1 when he won the us open so 40/ 1 for this is massive considering the field. I imagine they will soften the courses but there hasnt been a lot of rain there so could be firm enough. I just hope the wind blows to make it a decent test. Good luck also.

[elbows]

I finally found a south african at decent odds with decent form. Trevor Fisher jr. Who I have to admit I have never heard of. He is a local boy and with a record of 3rd and 6th last 2 years he is worth a pop at 80/1. 10 ew

[Hooch]

Going with Van Tonder, Aiken and Van Zyl in Joburg open, love Schwartzel form and record here but his price puts me off will have to wait for in play betting.

Just going with two small bets in the us for interest with Perez and Seung Yul Noh

Also agree with underachievement on baddeley he looks good

[elbows]

Going with Van Tonder, Aiken and Van Zyl in Joburg open, love Schwartzel form and record here but his price puts me off will have to wait for in play betting.

Just going with two small bets in the us for interest with Perez and Seung Yul Noh

Also agree with underachievement on baddeley he looks good

I like baddeley as mentioned above. Perez has a decent shout but he has only won once I think and he should have won the far more considering how long he has been on tour. for players like that I want a slightly bigger price. I also liked levin but wanted over 100/1. Noh I missed but think he could be really good and he was decent in this event last year from what I can remember.

I think it will be firmer than other years which will be great for gmac and baddeley

Joburg I don't have many I fancy at the prices. All too short for me bar Fisher

[elbows]

Jin jeong 10 ew 100/1

[elbows]

Freddie Jacobsen 100/1 with boyles 10 ew

[elbows]

Tim Wilkinson 125/1 10 ew

[elbows]

Reasonable week with Jeong having a decent chance to win but missed too many short putts on the final day. Came close enough with McDowell and Wilkinson. McDowell just started too slowly and came into his own once he got to pebble. Again I went too heavy pretourney and backed Kirk because I got my price, annoyed I didn't back walker just got greedy on price. Only bet I was unhappy with was Jacobsen - made no sense. Always nice to make a profit and 4 out of 5 profitable weeks.

Week Starting Bank €2,142.50
Weekly profit €80 (€260 from €180 Invested)
End Bank €2,222.50

[elbows]

In the US this week is the Northern Trust Open around Riviera.

Riviera is a classic golf course and has a host of big name winners.

This is my nearly tourney. Had Pavin and Langer a few years back when they nearly won and last year Charlie Beljan at bananas odds on the final day losing in a playoff to John Merrick.

I like KJ (Haven't backed him since he blew the masters on 13 a few years ago) He has great form around the course and his recent T2 in the Humana 66/1 is a decent price. He has not won in a while (2011) though and this is playing on my mind a bit . He wins around classic courses and is worth a small e/w bet. €10 e/w

My main bet is Kevin Streelman. He matured greatly as a player last year and is 40th in the world. He has played well around the classic courses on pga tour. He started 2014 with a t3 in Hawaii and so so in Phoenix t53. He won the tampa bay championship last year around innisbrook, was 2nd in the players, 3rd in Heritage 6th in wells fargo. His form here is not amazing but was T27 last year and has had a week off since Phoenix. His price is mad I think at 140/1 €20 e/w Further note KJ who has won on similar courses to which Streelman has done well also won the Tampa Bay Championship (twice)

Nothing in SA. Was looking at Kakko but poor final round last week put me off.

[elbows]

I will try to post more reasoning towards my in running bets. A lot of time I am doing it on my phone at home (or in work) and as I don't have laptop out (already get enough grief over phone use by the Mrs.) I couldn't be arsed writing reasons on my phone and I am just trying to log the bets on the thread.

Now I have a bit of time I will explain my bets in running from last week.

Joeng was 100/1 with Boyles (all others were 50/1 or less) when he was 1 off the lead after round 1. He had played the easier course first but 100/1 in a weakish field for a player who has won in the last 6 months.

Jacobsen was a mistake didn't see how hard Pebble on day 2 was playing but in fairness he was -2 through 5 (started on the backnine) for the day and -5 overall and only 3 or 4 back at the time as far as I can remember. He still had spyglass to play but should have been concentrating on guys with Monteray to play the next day

Wilkinson I backed towards the end of his 2nd round when he -6. He still had Monteray to play and was only 3 back at the time. + he had shot -5 on Pebble on day 1 and at 125/1 was too big I thought. The negative was his lack of decent tourney finishes.

[elbows]

Roope Kakko 10 ew 66/1 Stan james.

He was 80/1 starting and is -4 through 13 (3 back of leaders) and 66/1.

I did fancy him before the off just wasn't too sure how poor final round last week would affect him.

[elbows]

Dufner 20 win 40/1

[elbows]

Baddeley 10 ew 80/1 about 30 mins ago