Live 1/2/5: Give up or shove?

[Kayroo]

Live 1/2/5. I've been at the table about 15 mins and have played one hand in a limped pot where I turned the nuts and didn't get a river caller. The villain is a guy in his late 50's, neatly dressed but unkempt with a bit of an angry working man look in his eyes. He wants to get into the big Omaha game in the Fitz but there is no seat. Seems a little loose and likes to c-call base on a very small sample of hands.

Effective stacks: ~350

Hero on the button
Villain UTG+2

Pre flop he limps the straddle. Folded to me with 33. I raise to 25 he calls.

FLOP: 58

Ah. 7c. 3s

He checks and I bet 35. He quickly calls. He seems quite confident too.

Turn: 128

4h

He checks and i bet 80 and he snap calls again.

River: 288

5h

There's about 200 left behind and he checks. Do I just launch it in here or check hoping to take down a nice pot? It feels like it is a pretty straightforward check but I wanted a line check really.

[Hectorjelly]

If there was only one card that made a straight (a 2) rather than two i'd definitely shove all in. Given the size of the pot I'd probably shove anyway. Nice sizing.

[tipp86]

Depends really how comfortable you are with going bust i guess in a live game where i may not be rolled i may just check.

In reality i like about a bet of €100 to get him to call with something you beat.

Fwiw i probably dont raise to €25 pre i mean ye arent really playing 100bbs i just take a flop for €5 i reckon.

[Bubbleking]

Im definitively betting here keith I just dont know if I would shove as you probably dont get a call. In my experience snap calling is a tell for trying to look stronger than they actually are. I think villain has some Ax hand so its up to you to try and milk max value. If you think he'll call the shove then in she goes.

Vul if he backed into a flush or had some combo with a 2

[Kayroo]

If there was only one card that made a straight (a 2) rather than two i'd definitely shove all in. Given the size of the pot I'd probably shove anyway. Nice sizing.

The flushdraw was a serious consideration too but it's far more likely he has backed up into a straight obviously. I really think value shoving is too thin to be worth it in a game like this where I'd expect to have an edge. There's no issue with being under rolled here it's just that I can't see him calling a shove with many hands I beat and he is a model to have backed A6 or A2 into a straight here.

[Guest]

100% not folding

[Rodriquez]

Bet obviously why would u "check behind and win a nice pot"? If ur gonna win a nice pot then value bet and win an even nicer pot. Dont kno wat u tink could b beating u here. If he has a bigger set hes raising at some point n if he some how makes a wheel or a flush on the river hes gonna lead at it. Fill ur boots my son!!

[Kayroo]

100% not folding

Ehhh... Yeah, that literally goes without saying.

[Guest]

i value bet in this situation all day long maybe around 100-120

looks so much like an Ax here just ul if he backdoored it but im always betting river when checked to me...

+1 on just calling the 5 pre instead of raising it to 25

[Moneymaker]

I really doubt he's checking a straight here. Too likely you'll check back your Ax type hands. Unless you've been 3 barreling a ton and he's checking to induce but I can't give many live players that much credit tbh.

I'm all in. Can't pass up an opportunity like this. Sure he'll have the straight sometimes but more often he'll level himself into calling off with worse. Very few flushes he can show up with also, something like 54h, 7xh but that's about it. Still shoving.

No point doing anything but jamming, if he's calling 120 he's calling 200.

Like the raise pre too. It's given you the chance to play for stacks but I don't hate limping behind either.

Checking the river here is almost as bad as checking QJ on JJJAA

Granted I haven't played live cash for a while so my thought process may be miles off.

[Arazi]

It's a simple value bet/shove based on the desciption uve given. He'll call with a lot of 2 pair and maybe Ax hands. Sure u may valuetown yourself but betting should be profitable given the action. Something between 140 and a shove.

[Hectorjelly]

The flushdraw was a serious consideration too but it's far more likely he has backed up into a straight obviously. I really think value shoving is too thin to be worth it in a game like this where I'd expect to have an edge. There's no issue with being under rolled here it's just that I can't see him calling a shove with many hands I beat and he is a model to have backed A6 or A2 into a straight here.

Whether or not you have an edge is basically irrelevant in every hand that's ever been posted here, none more so than here. The bet will be pretty high variance, but if that's a concern then you shouldn't be playing the game.

Either the shove is +EV or not. To work it out you need to know what his calling range is on the river, and whether he is likely to check a straight to you. Given he is a moron I think you are much better off erring on the side of letting him make a mistake. I think he would be both somewhat unlikely to check a straight, and very likely to call an all in without one. Also he has called a 3bet pre and a bet on an ace high board, it's hard to imagine he has that many 6 or 2's in his range.

I didn't notice the flush possibility the first time I replied, it's a reason to check, not so much that I would be worried about him having a flush, but that he might worry about you having one and decide to check call rather than donk shove. (Not that that particularly makes any sense)

Betting 100 is probably the worst course of action bar open mucking. It reopens the betting if he does have a straight, looks like a value bet, and doesn't get max value when you get called.

If I got called here I wouldn't show my hand if I lost.

[Mellor]

Bet obviously why would u "check behind and win a nice pot"? If ur gonna win a nice pot then value bet and win an even nicer pot.

Because there comes a point, where even though you are likely ahve the best hand. no worse hands will call. In those spots, but achieves nothing. Katroo is wonderign is this is such a spot.

I really think value shoving is too thin to be worth it in a game like this where I'd expect to have an edge.

The edge isn't a consideration really. +Ev is +Ev
If it was a case where there was a massive fish donating as a once off. And you didn't have the funds to reload, then maybe avoiding the variance would be a better expected utility. Buts its not the case.
In fact that we have here is down to the fact that we can identify, and make, the thin value bets as in the spot above.

I bet about 150.

[alanmc101]

Such an easy value shove, villain has ax way way more than 6/2x...and if hes made 2 pair he has to call you because it looks like u can't hav 6/2x.

[Raoul Duke III]

The villain is a guy in his late 50's, neatly dressed but unkempt with a bit of an angry working man look in his eyes.

[x] describes >50% of Fitz villains

ship the sherbert but he has obviously backed into something given the fact you are posting this!

[Lord Sir Banter]

[x] describes >50% of Fitz villains

ship the sherbert but he has obviously backed into something given the fact you are posting this!

sherbet