Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Live spot - 3 short stacks all in

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    Live spot - 3 short stacks all in

    Live. About 14 left on two tables.

    Blinds 800/1500
    Hero in BB with 28k
    UTG has 7k
    UTG+1 has 9k
    Button has 5k

    UTG raises to 5k (plays too tight so range is probably narrower than it should be for his stack)
    UTG+1 shoves 9k (another v tight player, but changes game now and then)
    Button calls all in for 5k (could be just gambling on the opportunity to 3+ up)

    Hero has J9o

    #2
    Just fold. I might not even call UTGs push if it's folded to me

    Comment


      #3
      Just fold .

      Comment


        #4
        Easy fold obviously.

        Comment


          #5
          Just dump it. There really isn't any way you can justify this imo. There isn't a hope you have enough against their ranges

          Originally posted by EssEll View Post
          UTG has 7k

          UTG raises to 5k
          Lol at leaving 2k behind

          Comment


            #6
            I can well imagine how you got your stack together if your asking this Q in the first place.

            Comment


              #7
              equity win tie pots won pots tied
              Hand 0: 16.111% 15.48% 00.63% 39759114 1630535.25 { Jh9d }
              Hand 1: 30.963% 28.85% 02.12% 74101682 5440298.42 { 88+, A9s+, KQs, ATo+ }
              Hand 2: 32.239% 30.14% 02.10% 77430056 5390058.58 { TT+, AQs+, KQs, ATo+ }
              Hand 3: 20.687% 19.27% 01.42% 49506605 3637449.67 { 44+, A2s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, A7o+, K9o+ }

              Pokerstove output with my guess at the ranges.

              Hero is getting 3.1/1 with 16% equity for whole pot, with some additional value from the different sized bets (additional 5% on 4k, additional 14% on 2k = roughly another 2% of equity) bringing the total equity to 18%.

              So on this analysis, it is a fold.... my instinct at the time was wrong and I did call.

              Is there an argument for the additional value of eliminating 3 players and having a far more workable stack at the final table crapshoot?

              Comment


                #8
                There is no arguement for calling here whatsoever

                Comment


                  #9
                  meh nits - i call

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by ghostface ste View Post
                    There is no arguement for calling here whatsoever
                    Fold -> EV = 0

                    Call -> 16% probability of +23.3k
                    5% probability of +1.5k
                    14% probability of -5.5k
                    65% probability of -7.5k
                    = EV of -1.8k

                    There is also a 16% probability of knocking out 3 players (rather than 1-2 otherwise) and getting to 50k chips and clear chip lead.

                    That's an argument. It might not be definitive, but its an argument.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by ghostface ste View Post
                      There is no arguement for calling here whatsoever
                      What if the Jacks are 'out' that night?
                      Turning millions into thousands

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by Strewelpeter View Post
                        What if the Jacks are 'out' that night?
                        No, but 10s were out all night which obvioulsy increased the chances of a run.

                        btw... is pic a reference to fish or the chief?

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Also you have two suits so two chances of making a blue.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by Pistol Peter View Post
                            Also you have two suits so two chances of making a blue.
                            No, that's not right, because both of my suits are red and most flops are a mixture of red and black.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Live - 3 short stacks all in

                              Question 1:

                              Live cash game

                              Blinds 1/2
                              Hero in BB with 37
                              UTG has 9
                              UTG+1 has 12
                              Button has 7

                              UTG raises to 7
                              UTG+1 shoves 12
                              Button calls all in for 7

                              What is your range for calling?

                              Question 2:

                              Live tournament. About 14 left on two tables.

                              Blinds 800/1500
                              Hero in BB with 28k
                              UTG has 7k
                              UTG+1 has 9k
                              Button has 5k

                              UTG raises to 5k
                              UTG+1 shoves 9k
                              Button calls all in for 5k

                              What is your range for calling.

                              Question 3.

                              Given that the numbers are proportional, what are the reasons for differences in your calling range if any?

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Originally posted by Pistol Peter View Post
                                Also you have two suits so two chances of making a blue.
                                Originally posted by EssEll View Post
                                No, that's not right, because both of my suits are red and most flops are a mixture of red and black.
                                Nice.

                                Is this one of Jps games by the way? Just given stack sizes/blinds...

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by ghostface ste View Post
                                  Nice.

                                  Is this one of Jps games by the way? Just given stack sizes/blinds...
                                  No... pub game... can you not tell by the standard of player?

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Crappiest cash game in history?

                                    U dont even have half a buyin between ye!

                                    I take my money & head for a pub.
                                    Last edited by Dice75; 27-05-11, 13:06.

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      do we have to look at the cards in the cash game (gamble gamble)

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by EssEll View Post
                                        No... pub game... can you not tell by the standard of player?
                                        I meant Jps pub games. still never calling

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by EssEll View Post
                                          equity win tie pots won pots tied
                                          Hand 0: 16.111% 15.48% 00.63% 39759114 1630535.25 { Jh9d }
                                          Hand 1: 30.963% 28.85% 02.12% 74101682 5440298.42 { 88+, A9s+, KQs, ATo+ }
                                          Hand 2: 32.239% 30.14% 02.10% 77430056 5390058.58 { TT+, AQs+, KQs, ATo+ }
                                          Hand 3: 20.687% 19.27% 01.42% 49506605 3637449.67 { 44+, A2s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, A7o+, K9o+ }

                                          Pokerstove output with my guess at the ranges.

                                          Hero is getting 3.1/1 with 16% equity for whole pot, with some additional value from the different sized bets (additional 5% on 4k, additional 14% on 2k = roughly another 2% of equity) bringing the total equity to 18%.

                                          So on this analysis, it is a fold.... my instinct at the time was wrong and I did call.

                                          Is there an argument for the additional value of eliminating 3 players and having a far more workable stack at the final table crapshoot?
                                          Thats how I saw it!
                                          D15 CASINO, Mulhuddart Village (opp Blanchardstown shopping centre)

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Q for mods...

                                            Threads were merged but questions were different and reason for separating them was valid, no?

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Given your reads on UTG and UTG+1 its a fold, otherwise I'd consider calling for multiple reasons:
                                              Pot Odds
                                              Side Pots
                                              Eliminating 3 players
                                              In @ a discount
                                              Ur still reasonably stacked if you lose
                                              Ur position, ie Blinds have almost passed you after this hand
                                              The blind structure - assuming 15/20 min blinds
                                              plus J9 plays ok in these situations - if suited its probably a call imo (except if these 2 really are the nits you say they are).

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                From the way this thread is going its kinda obvious that the op made the call and binked and was berated for it , now he is on here looking for some assurances that it was a good call .

                                                Well it's never ever ever ever ever a spot to call . Your mates were right all along . Your a donkey

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by DAMO72 View Post
                                                  From the way this thread is going its kinda obvious that the op made the call and binked and was berated for it , now he is on here looking for some assurances that it was a good call .

                                                  Well it's never ever ever ever ever a spot to call . Your mates were right all along . Your a donkey
                                                  OP thought about it for a while and decided that in terms of EV it was probably close to neutral (which I don't think was a terrible guess) and that there were other factors that made it attractive to go ahead and call ... I said what they were earlier.

                                                  So I made the call and I did not win (in fact I got back 2k as I finished ahead of the 9k stack, so damage was 5.5k rather than 7.5k - but that is irrelevant, I never suggested that the outcome was relevant to my question)

                                                  There was no particular comment from the other players at the time, and I wasn't particularly put out and did not feel particularly in need of assurances.

                                                  I ran it on pokerstove later out of curiosity to see what the equity was (needed some assumptions on ranges, etc. so its somewhat subjective but thats ok) and discovered that equity was a bit less than I expected .

                                                  Then I got to wonder about the other lines of thinking I had at the time - e.g. the potential disproportionate value of a big stack at this stage of the tournament etc. I wondered if those considerations were valid or not and whether they might tip the balance towards a call despite the EV being somewhat negative.

                                                  I was interested in opinions on that so I thought I would post the hand and hopefully get a chance to clarify my thinking and maybe learn a bit.

                                                  I'm a bit pissed off with your response tbh. Not the bit about I'm a donkey or whatever, as I know I'm still learning this game. I just don't like the implication that I had no serious question. I did. I wanted to know whether there were some added considerations here because of the tournament situation that make sense.

                                                  Several of the posters give a straight answer, one or two give a reasoned opinion one way or the other. Unfortunately I seriously think that there are too many smart and too many knowing answers on this forum to this type of post and that this is a serious discouragement to new or irregular posters. It seems to me that half the posts are just put up to get some sort of knowing wink or approval from other regulars on the site.

                                                  So, in summary:
                                                  * You are wrong on every assumption in your first sentence
                                                  * Imo this sort of thing damages IPB and you should know better

                                                  /rant

                                                  Comment


                                                    #26
                                                    Just fold. Most likely you will lose 1/3 of your stack here with a very weak hand. Even if you thought the other 3 were playing ATC this is still an easy fold. Might be half justifiable if you had a monster stack but u only have 18BB yourself. As for trying to knock out 3 players it's pretty clear that 2 of them are already going home or as good as so this should not even come into it...

                                                    Comment


                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by EssEll View Post

                                                      So, in summary:
                                                      * You are wrong on every assumption in your first sentence
                                                      * Imo this sort of thing damages IPB and you should know better

                                                      /rant
                                                      pwned

                                                      Comment


                                                        #28
                                                        I still can't figure out whether you're being serious OP.

                                                        If you are, well then kudos for such in depth analysis, but I think you're wasting your analytical brain on situations that don't merit analysis.

                                                        If you're levelling, well then fair play, you got me.
                                                        I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that

                                                        Comment


                                                          #29
                                                          iam wondering why this thread is on its second page

                                                          i see more awkaward hands getting post and only getting 2 or 3 answers



                                                          "Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"

                                                          Comment


                                                            #30
                                                            You can use all the gobbledegook analytical BS in the world to try and look clever . But if your not capable of folding J9 off in that spot then your not so clever after all .

                                                            Tip : Learn to fold

                                                            Comment


                                                              #31
                                                              OP the very fact that you are asking this Q in the way that you are asking it shows that your thinking is already on a different level than the guy you are now getting upset about. I wouldn't worry about it, just trust your reads more and when it comes to choosing the time to gamble always remember that poker has a real place for "Prudence".

                                                              Comment


                                                                #32
                                                                Folding the J9 without much thought in that spot tbh.

                                                                Seen your above post/rant. I think your reading too much into what people are saying in jest. Sure some people will troll but don't take things personal, take the genuine people who are trying to help you and ignore the usual forum sarcastic bullshit that is thrown around from time to time (I must admit I find some of it irritating too). Most people here want to help, just try to chill and don't take it to heart.

                                                                Haters gonna hate.
                                                                http://carlmorrissey.blogspot.com/
                                                                http://twitter.com/#!/Moro88

                                                                Comment


                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by Arazi View Post
                                                                  OP the very fact that you are asking this Q in the way that you are asking it shows that your thinking is already on a different level than the guy you are now getting upset about. I wouldn't worry about it, just trust your reads more and when it comes to choosing the time to gamble always remember that poker has a real place for "Prudence".
                                                                  Well said and your dead right about the different level of thinking .
                                                                  5 yrs ago i was making that call all day every day . If the op keeps asking these questions and learns to listen he will soon be up to my level of thinking.
                                                                  And if you are ever in need of advice please dont hesitate to ask .

                                                                  G'nite

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by DAMO72 View Post
                                                                    You can use all the gobbledegook analytical BS in the world to try and look clever . But if you're not capable of folding J9 off in that spot then you're not so clever after all .

                                                                    Tip : Learn to fold
                                                                    Tip: Learn to use the apostrophe

                                                                    Once again Damo - you've managed to alienate yet another poster who FWIW has very rarely posted in the HH section looking for thoughts.
                                                                    @ Carl - agree totally but it seems to happen far too much, not "time to time" I'm afraid.

                                                                    @OP - As nearly discussed on the night in question, I understand where you were coming from - picking spots to try to get chips for the crapshootty FT is tough. I don't hate your call as the reasoning behind it was okay, but I think you could've found a better spot which didn't involve going to war with UTG. Am I right in thinking you had a similar decision earlier in the tourney which you decided to fold?

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by newbie2 View Post
                                                                      Tip: Learn to use the apostrophe

                                                                      Once again Damo - you've managed to alienate yet another poster who FWIW has very rarely posted in the HH section looking for thoughts.
                                                                      @ Carl - agree totally but it seems to happen far too much, not "time to time" I'm afraid.

                                                                      @OP - As nearly discussed on the night in question, I understand where you were coming from - picking spots to try to get chips for the crapshootty FT is tough. I don't hate your call as the reasoning behind it was okay, but I think you could've found a better spot which didn't involve going to war with UTG. Am I right in thinking you had a similar decision earlier in the tourney which you decided to fold?
                                                                      So we are all agreed then . Its a fold

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        #36
                                                                        .
                                                                        Last edited by EssEll; 28-05-11, 09:50.

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          #37
                                                                          Originally posted by newbie2 View Post
                                                                          Am I right in thinking you had a similar decision earlier in the tourney which you decided to fold?
                                                                          AQs with 2 all ins but stacks were much bigger so folded quick enough

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            #38
                                                                            I haven't had a chance to look at your calcs properly, as I'm on the phone here, but that kind of post hand analysis is correct, and you're right that your equity increases in side pots, so kudos there.
                                                                            However at a glance i think your ranges are a little wide given description of UTG etc

                                                                            Don't that blunt comments to heart, not many mean to sound harsh. In my experience the short snappy comments like 'easy fold' actually help you spot trivial hands in the long run, and focus on hands of merit

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              #39
                                                                              Originally posted by Mellor View Post
                                                                              I haven't had a chance to look at your calcs properly, as I'm on the phone here, but that kind of post hand analysis is correct, and you're right that your equity increases in side pots, so kudos there.
                                                                              However at a glance i think your ranges are a little wide given description of UTG etc

                                                                              Don't that blunt comments to heart, not many mean to sound harsh. In my experience the short snappy comments like 'easy fold' actually help you spot trivial hands in the long run, and focus on hands of merit
                                                                              I've no problem with short or blunt answers and am not at all thin skinned. I just found one of the comments annoying because it was just smartarsed rather than helpful in any way and I mean it when I say that it's precisely the sort of thing that is in danger of devaluing ipb.

                                                                              In relation to the hand, I'm interested that you think the ranges are wide and on reflection u might be right about utg in particular. Betting 5 of 7 at this level of game shd have warned me he had a real monster.

                                                                              So leaving the actual hand aside and accepting that this actual hand is trivial, I still have a general question: in this sort of calculation / assessment is it correct to adjust for the extra value of where I would be in the tournament (the extra value of a v large stack approaching the FT), or is that line of thinking flawed?

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                #40
                                                                                It's perfectly fine to adjust for that, in fact its the optimal thing to do imo. But in general people tend to over estimate it and take -EV gambles. You can quantify it very accurately using ICM. But its worth mentioning that the negative effect of losing chips could outweigh the benefits and optimal calling equity may even be tighter than raw chip equity

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  #41
                                                                                  Originally posted by EssEll View Post
                                                                                  AQs with 2 all ins but stacks were much bigger so folded quick enough
                                                                                  Thread just keeps delivering.
                                                                                  You are obviously in need of more help than i first realised.
                                                                                  At least you will always have your superior spelling skills to fall back on incase this poker thing doest work out for you.




























                                                                                  It's still a fold

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    #42
                                                                                    Originally posted by Mellor View Post
                                                                                    It's perfectly fine to adjust for that, in fact its the optimal thing to do imo. But in general people tend to over estimate it and take -EV gambles. You can quantify it very accurately using ICM. But its worth mentioning that the negative effect of losing chips could outweigh the benefits and optimal calling equity may even be tighter than raw chip equity
                                                                                    Arnold Snyder (who might be a bit suspect?) argues that the chips at the top of the pile are worth more than the last chips as they allow you to expand capabilities. In other words, there is a line of argument that ICM undervalues the power of a dominant stack.

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      #43
                                                                                      Originally posted by DAMO72 View Post
                                                                                      Thread just keeps delivering.
                                                                                      You are obviously in need of more help than i first realised.
                                                                                      At least you will always have your superior spelling skills to fall back on incase this poker thing doest work out for you.

                                                                                      It's still a fold
                                                                                      Sorry for that spelling comment - it was late. I have deleted it.

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        #44
                                                                                        Originally posted by Angry-Ball View Post
                                                                                        iam wondering why this thread is on its second page

                                                                                        i see more awkaward hands getting post and only getting 2 or 3 answers
                                                                                        Page 3 ftw

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          #45
                                                                                          Originally posted by Mellor View Post
                                                                                          It's perfectly fine to adjust for that, in fact its the optimal thing to do imo. But in general people tend to over estimate it and take -EV gambles. You can quantify it very accurately using ICM. But its worth mentioning that the negative effect of losing chips could outweigh the benefits and optimal calling equity may even be tighter than raw chip equity
                                                                                          +1. @OP, Nothing wrong with considering these factors but once you are talking about more than 10% of your chips you don't have the luxury of taking a punt like this. 3 shorties have just gone to war, 2 will be eliminated or crippled which is good for you, given the stack sizes and stage of the tournament you would need a monster to call. I'd be interested in what others have to say but this is a spot where I'd be a nit - I'd probably fold everything except AA/KK - and if I thought that 2 of the players were as tight as u say I might even lay down the kings

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            #46
                                                                                            Originally posted by EssEll View Post
                                                                                            Sorry for that spelling comment - it was late. I have deleted it.
                                                                                            Look i always come across as a smartass but hey thats just me. It takes all kinds to make this place. If we all posted the same then the place would die pretty quick.
                                                                                            My answers may be smart but they mean the same as the more articulate poster's around here. Mine are just more fun.

                                                                                            Goodluck and dont mind all them other idiots.

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              #47
                                                                                              Originally posted by DAMO72 View Post
                                                                                              Look i always come across as a smartass but hey thats just me. It takes all kinds to make this place. If we all posted the same then the place would die pretty quick.
                                                                                              My answers may be smart but they mean the same as the more articulate poster's around here. Mine are just more fun.

                                                                                              Goodluck and dont mind all them other idiots.
                                                                                              @EssEll you do know there is an ignore button right
                                                                                              Her sky-ness
                                                                                              © 5starpool

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                #48
                                                                                                Originally posted by michelle SatNav View Post
                                                                                                @EssEll you do know there is an ignore button right
                                                                                                lol - no I didn't... won't use it anyway, but thx

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  #49
                                                                                                  Originally posted by DAMO72 View Post
                                                                                                  Look i always come across as a smartass but hey thats just me. It takes all kinds to make this place. If we all posted the same then the place would die pretty quick.
                                                                                                  My answers may be smart but they mean the same as the more articulate poster's around here. Mine are just more fun.

                                                                                                  Goodluck and dont mind all them other idiots.
                                                                                                  Agree that most of your posts mean the same as posts that just say "Fold".

                                                                                                  I hve no problem with you saying my play is bad / I'm a donkey or whatever if you make some attempt to say why - in any terms you want.

                                                                                                  Good luck to you too & virtual shake hands

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                    #50
                                                                                                    Originally posted by markc View Post
                                                                                                    +1. @OP, Nothing wrong with considering these factors but once you are talking about more than 10% of your chips you don't have the luxury of taking a punt like this. 3 shorties have just gone to war, 2 will be eliminated or crippled which is good for you, given the stack sizes and stage of the tournament you would need a monster to call. I'd be interested in what others have to say but this is a spot where I'd be a nit - I'd probably fold everything except AA/KK - and if I thought that 2 of the players were as tight as u say I might even lay down the kings
                                                                                                    Thanks... I think that this is right. A better would have been what a calling range should be - or possibly how small the short stacks would need to be to make J9o a call

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                      #51
                                                                                                      Originally posted by EssEll View Post
                                                                                                      Thanks... I think that this is right. A better would have been what a calling range should be - or possibly how small the short stacks would need to be to make J9o a call
                                                                                                      I think the main point you seem to be missing throughout is that your stack isn't big either. You only have 18 big blinds. One of the all in guys has enough to take 1/3 of your stack and your almost certainly behind his range. It is really really bad to call off 1/3 of your stack in this spot.

                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                        #52
                                                                                                        Originally posted by michelle SatNav View Post
                                                                                                        @EssEll you do know there is an ignore button right
                                                                                                        Cougar setting up another victim ??

                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                          #53
                                                                                                          Originally posted by DAMO72 View Post
                                                                                                          Cougar setting up another victim ??
                                                                                                          lol... ok you can be funny

                                                                                                          I'm older than MSN btw, so who would the cougar be?

                                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                                            #54
                                                                                                            Originally posted by EssEll View Post
                                                                                                            lol... ok you can be funny

                                                                                                            I'm older than MSN btw, so who would the cougar be?
                                                                                                            Definately still her

                                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                                              #55
                                                                                                              Originally posted by Angry-Ball View Post
                                                                                                              iam wondering why this thread is on its second page

                                                                                                              i see more awkaward hands getting post and only getting 2 or 3 answers
                                                                                                              Originally posted by EssEll View Post
                                                                                                              Page 3 ftw
                                                                                                              WTF? It's still on the first page!

                                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                                #56
                                                                                                                Originally posted by EssEll View Post
                                                                                                                lol... ok you can be funny

                                                                                                                I'm older than MSN btw, so who would the cougar be?
                                                                                                                how do you know you are older than me
                                                                                                                Her sky-ness
                                                                                                                © 5starpool

                                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                                  #57
                                                                                                                  Originally posted by michelle SatNav View Post
                                                                                                                  how do you know you are older than me
                                                                                                                  This is too dangerous to answer

                                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                                    #58
                                                                                                                    Originally posted by EssEll View Post
                                                                                                                    This is too dangerous to answer
                                                                                                                    Tch! That was really really really easy to answer

                                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                                      #59
                                                                                                                      Even if this was to win the tournament and there was 4 left, I wouldn't make the call. If you fold you have a nice stack to 3 bet jam.

                                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                                        #60
                                                                                                                        I think you were a little off with this call but I like your line of thought. Looking at these situations and analysing them in depth will only help you in the future.

                                                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                                                        Working...
                                                                                                                        X