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Old 08-09-17, 09:37   #9561
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Lucky Pat 555 Kilbeggan. Good name, comes from a good source what could go wrong
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Old 09-09-17, 16:41   #9562
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I wonder what backing the APOB 4th\5th strings has returned in G1s over the last few years?
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Old 09-09-17, 17:25   #9563
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I wonder what backing the APOB 4th\5th strings has returned in G1s over the last few years?
Have to be in profit this year in anycase. Jockey booking doesnt seem to help in solving the puzzle either.

Hedging might a solution
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Old 10-09-17, 10:40   #9564
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Hi guys,Long time no see,just ran the numbers on APOB trained horses that ran in group 1 races since 2010 that went off at industry starting price of 20/1 or bigger on horseracebase

BetsWinsWin%P/L(SP)PlacesPlace%RacesRace%P/L(BF)Plc(BF)Plc%(BF)P/L(Plc)MxOddAvgOddBFA/EBF A/EAvgBFWinOdd
17374.05392313.291365.15174.642313.3758.24201.00171.131.392.4852.22

A simple 100 euro bet at betfair starting price in both win and place markets over that time frame would have you in the green by about 23k,not too shabby at all

Same as above but with his group 1,2, and 3 runners.

BetsWinsWin%P/L(SP)PlacesPlace%RacesRace%P/L(BF)Plc(BF)Plc%(BF)P/L(Plc)MxOddAvgOddBFA/EBF A/EAvgBFWinOdd
291103.44303913.42344.27378.034013.79107.3201.00134.31.07270.37
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Old 10-09-17, 11:53   #9565
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Seventh Heaven at 5's is curiously big today, almost put off by it, but not enough to not back. Surely too much weight being placed on Moore's choice in this race and not enough on actual form.
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Old 10-09-17, 12:23   #9566
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Hi guys,Long time no see,just ran the numbers on APOB trained horses that ran in group 1 races since 2010 that went off at industry starting price of 20/1 or bigger on horseracebase

BetsWinsWin%P/L(SP)PlacesPlace%RacesRace%P/L(BF)Plc(BF)Plc%(BF)P/L(Plc)MxOddAvgOddBFA/EBF A/EAvgBFWinOdd
17374.05392313.291365.15174.642313.3758.24201.00171.131.392.4852.22

A simple 100 euro bet at betfair starting price in both win and place markets over that time frame would have you in the green by about 23k,not too shabby at all

Same as above but with his group 1,2, and 3 runners.

BetsWinsWin%P/L(SP)PlacesPlace%RacesRace%P/L(BF)Plc(BF)Plc%(BF)P/L(Plc)MxOddAvgOddBFA/EBF A/EAvgBFWinOdd
291103.44303913.42344.27378.034013.79107.3201.00134.31.07270.37
Thanks dude! Yes, that seemed intuitively correct to me.

Could improve that again if you ruled out the blatantly obvious pacemakers.
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Old 10-09-17, 13:29   #9567
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Thanks dude! Yes, that seemed intuitively correct to me.

Could improve that again if you ruled out the blatantly obvious pacemakers.
No worries,with something like this there's massive down side as most of the profits come from outliner bets,which are bets that win at massive odds.

just to go over the numbers again,trained by APOB,G1,all odds

BetsWinsWin%P/L(SP)PlacesPlace%RacesRace%P/L(BF)Plc(BF)Plc%(BF)P/L(Plc)MxOddAvgOddBFA/EBF A/EAvgBFWinOdd
6009716.17-42.5322938.1729532.88139.9723338.960.84201.0056.380.911.037.98

Add in the starting price of 20/1 and we're left with just 7 wins over the last 7 years,of which just 2 bets make up more than 50% of the profits,and lost badly 3 of the last 7 years


A much better "system" imo would be

TRAINED BY APOB
GROUP 1,2 & 3 ONLY
IRELAND/UK ONLY
RACE AGE RESTRICTION 2YO & 3YO ONLY
BACK AT BETFAIR STARTING PRICE IN THE WIN AND PLACE MARKETS ANY PRICE

BetsWinsWin%P/L(SP)PlacesPlace%RacesRace%P/L(BF)Plc(BF)Plc%(BF)P/L(Plc)MxOddAvgOddBFA/EBF A/EAvgBFWinOdd
83715418.49.2134641.3443035.81251.9935942.89170.28201.0031.790.941.067.39

You would have lost in 2010 but would have won a nice few quid each and every year since with little drawdown compared to out siders version.
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Old 12-09-17, 11:41   #9568
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A small e/w double today on Michael Mulvaney's two at Listowel.

The fact that the rider of the second has never gone over a jump in public concerns me not at all.
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Old 12-09-17, 14:36   #9569
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A small e/w double today on Michael Mulvaney's two at Listowel.

The fact that the rider of the second has never gone over a jump in public concerns me not at all.
any reason at all for these?
I can't really see it
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Old 12-09-17, 14:49   #9570
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any reason at all for these?
I can't really see it
clearly not
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Old 12-09-17, 15:47   #9571
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any reason at all for these?
I can't really see it
One of two is acceptable

Main reason was 'ground' tbf. Young lad did well on top. Backed both indvidually so acceptable day.
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Old 15-09-17, 09:49   #9572
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At sandown today

Load them up!
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Old 15-09-17, 13:39   #9573
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At sandown today

Load them up!
Thought Sea Shack had a chance at a nice price in the 415...
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Old 16-09-17, 12:19   #9574
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Old 22-09-17, 20:40   #9575
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One from the tracker...not a tip...Creeping Ivy 220 Navan..must have an each way chance
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Old 23-09-17, 13:28   #9576
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One from the tracker...not a tip...Creeping Ivy 220 Navan..must have an each way chance
decent 3rd @16s
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Old 23-09-17, 21:33   #9577
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Old 10-10-17, 15:38   #9578
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Sean Flanagan is an excellent jockey. Knows when he's in danger and how much horse he has under him (Cooper never knew this so well imo)and doesn't mind looking the fool to shrug along his charge to keep position and not masking difficulty like Walsh and Geraghty are masters at at this stage. Watch the 4pm Galway, several fences out he fired his charge into the fence as the other 2 were hard held. Had he have been passed he'd of downed tools.
Meade has his horses plenty forward. Playing it with a straight bat more than ever, I'll put it down to having a lot of O'Leary's these days.

Last edited by rounders123; 10-10-17 at 17:21. Reason: Sean
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Old 12-10-17, 14:19   #9579
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Sean Flanagan is an excellent jockey. Knows when he's in danger and how much horse he has under him (Cooper never knew this so well imo)and doesn't mind looking the fool to shrug along his charge to keep position and not masking difficulty like Walsh and Geraghty are masters at at this stage. Watch the 4pm Galway, several fences out he fired his charge into the fence as the other 2 were hard held. Had he have been passed he'd of downed tools.
Meade has his horses plenty forward. Playing it with a straight bat more than ever, I'll put it down to having a lot of O'Leary's these days.
Was thinking of this post while watching Davy Russell on the last two at Thurles (2.35 & 3.10). If you get a chance watch the finishes on ATR.

Both times he comes through on the bridle between last two hurdles but doesn't really release the horse until after the last when he has let them back at his hind quarters without the momentum. Now maybe he knows both wont see the trip out well but I often think if they try release a bit and get the 3 to 4l advantage it would help?

I had no money on either, just observing.
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Old 13-10-17, 10:52   #9580
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The owner of Sir Vincent in the 3.25 fancies its chances im told. I am sure most owners normally feel the same. Looking at a 14yo nag with no form doesnt inspire much confidence in me. Of course i still have to throw a couple of schekels ew on it at 50s
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