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Old 10-10-17, 20:47   #41
Mike Bullocks
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Originally Posted by Hectorjelly View Post
I've read it again, I still don't understand it. Implied odds and reverse implied odds aren't terms that have any baring on what we are discussing. The guy is raising k7o, so worrying about the tiny chance we are dominated is pretty silly.
Level for sure . Even some results based thinking thrown in . You didn't add in the new sugar tax to stop people sweetening the pot.
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Old 10-10-17, 21:07   #42
aidankk
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Originally Posted by Flushdraw View Post
lmao. I've played with you enough times to know that you don't call here with ATC at this stack depth. You're tighter than me from the blinds, and i'm quite loose (but obviously not loose enough). I'd happily play with a player that calls here with J8o every time and plays fit or fold and allows me to play perfect.
I'm certainly not playing fit or fold if i play from the BB here, although it sounds like your talking about some one else..;-)
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Old 11-10-17, 12:23   #43
AndyFatBastard
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Originally Posted by Hectorjelly View Post
I've read it again, I still don't understand it. Implied odds and reverse implied odds aren't terms that have any baring on what we are discussing. The guy is raising k7o, so worrying about the tiny chance we are dominated is pretty silly.
As far as I can tell you're omitting fold equity from your decision entirely. Our opponent is going to make us fold a tremendous amount of time. We're going to have to shove to generate any fold equity of our own, and we don't really want to be doing that with J high. Our opponent is going to cbet close to 100% of flops, and if they barrel the turn, our resulting shove generates almost no fold equity. We have to consider all of these scenarions in our decision. I know reverse implied odds isn't a completely accurate term to use for this, but nevertheless will be very difficult to win the hand without risking all your chips with a bag of spanners.

Showdown is only a part of our considerations, and using preflop all-in EV only tells us about our potential showdown value. Given the very high probability that the hand won't go to showdown, I think it's perfectly reasonable to say that all-in EV is a really terrible way to decide whether or not to see this flop. You can't just decide that something is too complex, therefore it's ok to substitute a model you know is bad.
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Old 11-10-17, 13:56   #44
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I did of course forget to mention the most critical information of all. Which has a big impact on this hand.

I had a look at the day 2 structure and knew it was going to be very fast. I also had a ticket for Saturday already. I was never going to be heading into Sunday with only 70k no matter what. ( i actually ended up all in 3-4 times in the last 5-6 hands of the day) none of the other ones were madness or anything just made sense.

Now that said in this particular case id go for it anyway as i tend to get the hump with lads foolishly raising my blind every round, but i did have the backup of another shot.

On the calling in the BB with J8, im afraid I'm going to do that plenty against the Hoodie Brigade (auto button - cutoff raise / auto continue bet) . I probably disagree with the few comments that would say call everything in that i would probably pitch anything worse than 8/6s
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Old 11-10-17, 17:22   #45
Hectorjelly
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Originally Posted by AndyFatBastard View Post
As far as I can tell you're omitting fold equity from your decision entirely. Our opponent is going to make us fold a tremendous amount of time. We're going to have to shove to generate any fold equity of our own, and we don't really want to be doing that with J high. Our opponent is going to cbet close to 100% of flops, and if they barrel the turn, our resulting shove generates almost no fold equity. We have to consider all of these scenarions in our decision. I know reverse implied odds isn't a completely accurate term to use for this, but nevertheless will be very difficult to win the hand without risking all your chips with a bag of spanners.

Showdown is only a part of our considerations, and using preflop all-in EV only tells us about our potential showdown value. Given the very high probability that the hand won't go to showdown, I think it's perfectly reasonable to say that all-in EV is a really terrible way to decide whether or not to see this flop. You can't just decide that something is too complex, therefore it's ok to substitute a model you know is bad.
The difficulty I had in understanding what you previously wrote is because you keep using phrases which are very misleading and have been pretty much omitted in the discourse surrounding poker as they just confuse the important issues. Fold equity, reverse implied odds etc.

Because of the odds you are getting prefop, it is far more profitable to call and check fold most flops than it is to just fold preflop. You are closing the action and getting a pretty insane price. You don't need to continue much after the flop to make calling preflop profitable. In the doomsday scenario you outlined above where Villain is cbetting 100% and barrelling all turns, then it is actually really simple to play post flop and is actually going to be a lot more profitable than playing a reasonable opponent who cbets with a balanced range. Just check raise all in with any pair and you are printing chips, you will be doubling up pretty much any time you make a pair, and folding when you miss. Even when you crai with a draw you will have about 50% equity so its going to be profitable.

You are completely and utterly wrong about using equity simulators. There is no other way of estimating your equity against a range and its the most important factor in deciding whether to call preflop or not. Because a flop contains 3 cards, and the turn and the river only 2, you will realise most of your equity on the flop.

Its very easy to get lost in a sea of words on topics like this. Put simply you are calling less than 2 blinds to win 7.5. You don't need to win the hand a whole lot to make it profitable to call.
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Old 11-10-17, 21:38   #46
Wombatman
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hectorjelly View Post
The difficulty I had in understanding what you previously wrote is because you keep using phrases which are very misleading and have been pretty much omitted in the discourse surrounding poker as they just confuse the important issues. Fold equity, reverse implied odds etc.

Because of the odds you are getting prefop, it is far more profitable to call and check fold most flops than it is to just fold preflop. You are closing the action and getting a pretty insane price. You don't need to continue much after the flop to make calling preflop profitable. In the doomsday scenario you outlined above where Villain is cbetting 100% and barrelling all turns, then it is actually really simple to play post flop and is actually going to be a lot more profitable than playing a reasonable opponent who cbets with a balanced range. Just check raise all in with any pair and you are printing chips, you will be doubling up pretty much any time you make a pair, and folding when you miss. Even when you crai with a draw you will have about 50% equity so its going to be profitable.

You are completely and utterly wrong about using equity simulators. There is no other way of estimating your equity against a range and its the most important factor in deciding whether to call preflop or not. Because a flop contains 3 cards, and the turn and the river only 2, you will realise most of your equity on the flop.

Its very easy to get lost in a sea of words on topics like this. Put simply you are calling less than 2 blinds to win 7.5. You don't need to win the hand a whole lot to make it profitable to call.
I think would be better served citing post flop probabilities, rather than preflop, based on the logic highlighted above. Sea of words and all that.
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