0.05/0.10 - Turn/River play

[Fullof..It]

Villian is 23/21/2 over 47 hands - no other reads

All other feedback on hand appreciated!

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($15.18)
Button ($14.57)
Hero (BB) ($14.72)
MP ($10)
UTG ($10.66)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, J
1 fold, MP bets $0.30, Button calls $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.95) Q, 2, K (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, Button checks

Turn: ($0.95) 10 (3 players)
Hero bets $0.68, MP raises $1.96, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.28

River: ($4.87) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $3.08

[tenbob]

Fine as long as you call the river bet.

Pre is ok, on a short-handed table i perfer making it $1.10 or so. FR I'd usally flat it.

[peterswellman]

Don't really like it but i'm calling. He might raise some sets and two pairs on the turn and bet the river for value. We're underrepped aswell here. I do expect to see a flush quite a bit. Don't play that much cash so this could be way off.

[BobSloane]

I doubt he has a flush. I might check/shove river. At least call

[tipp86]

I doubt he has a flush. I might check/shove river. At least call

I really hate a shove there.

[shano_88]

Whats his flop cbet %?

Its pretty unlikely he has a flush here as you would expect him to cbet with a fd. I still probably just call the river as I cant see him calling a checkraise with worse.

[Fullof..It]

Whats his flop cbet %?

don't have it on hud. my first impression was that he didn't have fd based on his non cb on flop, however his aggression on the turn and river threw me

Fine as long as you call the river bet.

Pre is ok, on a short-handed table i perfer making it $1.10 or so. FR I'd usally flat it.

everyone agreed 3 bet is best pre?

[tipp86]

I personally dont like the 3bet its not going to be that pretty a hand oop in a 3 way pot potentially.

[Mellor]

don't have it on hud. my first impression was that he didn't have fd based on his non cb on flop, however his aggression on the turn and river threw me

Put it on your HUD. Useful in spots like.
I call here. I think its a flush as often as it is pair with NFD.

[Hectorjelly]

I doubt he has a flush. I might check/shove river. At least call

That is terrible advice, you're turning your hand into a bluff.

Even if he is unlikely to have a flush (which I think isn't true anyway) we could easily have one, and there is no way he is calling with worse than a flush.


Call>Fold>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Raise

[Fullof..It]

I called, he had J9 for worst str8.

Wasnt sure if call was right vs his aggression on turn / river

Thanks for feedback.

[BobSloane]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB

and there is no way he is calling with worse than a flush.

You are probably my all time favourite theory poster but you are wrong here.
I know it will seem results orientated now that op has posted results but we are not turning our hand into a bluff at all. Your average taggy player with those stats(albeit small sample size) at those stakes on that site will have a flush here very rarely - (imo). If they have taken this line with TT,QT,J9,AJ they will find a fold here almost never , putting you on the bare A of diamonds and figuring they have to call getting 3-1. No way folding(surely a terrible option?) is 12 or 13 greater than signs better than raising here - especially if calling is only 1 greater than sign better than folding!

[Hectorjelly]

You are probably my all time favourite theory poster but you are wrong here.
I know it will seem results orientated now that op has posted results but we are not turning our hand into a bluff at all. Your average taggy player with those stats(albeit small sample size) at those stakes on that site will have a flush here very rarely - (imo). If they have taken this line with TT,QT,J9,AJ they will find a fold here almost never , putting you on the bare A of diamonds and figuring they have to call getting 3-1. No way folding(surely a terrible option?) is 12 or 13 greater than signs better than raising here - especially if calling is only 1 greater than sign better than folding!

Haha, thanks for the compliment!

I think the results of this hand are somewhat misleading. In general you should be reluctant to call a bet if you don't beat any value hands. (Assuming you aren't getting a great price or have a good reason to suspect your opponent is bluffing). In this hand, we beat/tie these hands he might value raise. QT - TT - 9J - AJ. We lose to all flushes. Of these hands, QT will mainly just call IMO, so that has to be discounted. (KT as well, but that is even less likely). Since our hand is quite strong, and we beat some hands he may be raising for value we really have to call the turn. The river changes nothing, and if we check call he is likely to value bet all of the listed hands. (Although he may check back 2 pair). If he is bluffing this is by far the best line to take.

So once we've agreed we're calling the turn and checking the river with the intention of at least calling the river, we need to decide whether or not to raise the river for value. In order for this to be + EV, we need to look at his calling range for a river check raise. If he is bluffing it makes no difference if we raise or call.

Check raise river bluffs are extremely rare, I really think that it is very unlikely a standard TAG is going to call the river raise with any hand worse than a set or a straight, and both of these would be very bad calls IMO. He isn't going to call with them much of the time. He will call with almost every hand that beats us though (although maybe he folds some small flushes!) There are far more flush combinations than there are combinations of 9J or TT, and given that he is liable to fold 9J or TT you can see how this creates a reverse freeroll, where almost any time money goes into the pot from here on we lose it.

Lets say If we check raise the river we make it 11, $6 more. I reckon this costs us roughly $4 in EV. Folding always has a EV of 0, so you can see why you I think it might be way better to fold than raise.

Even if he always calls all in with a set or straight, I think the EV is probably going to be close to 0 - making it a high variance play for little or no gain.

I've been guestimating all the figures, if I have time later I think it might be interested to actually do the calculations, although it clearly comes down to a matter of opinion as to whether he calls with worse or not.

[Hectorjelly]

Also, its important to note that all of the major action takes place once the flush becomes possible.

[Kie Diddy]

anyone like clicking back turn? (obv have to get it in if he shove but better htan check- folding a river? and we get value from pair+NFD hands which he will liley check back on non rivers/? if he flats we can then lead river.
personally; never raising river as played and pretty much always calling...

[BobSloane]

@HJ Thanks for the detailed post above. Well written and thought out as always. Just a few points though to counter your analysis.

The main one is that you say there are more combinations of flushes than J9/TT. This is obv true but my point is that a typical microstakes taggy villain will raise pre and check a flopped flush draw almost never. The sneaky value in making this play is that it confuses someone who is trying to hand read. The whole crux of my argument is that villain will rarely have a flush but is more likely to have a straight or TT or two pair(or a bluff). Imo his most likely hands from most likely to least likely are 1)a bluff Jx/Adx/other air 2) Two pair/set/straight 3)a flush

Secondly your analysis is as if this was a $5/$10 hand posted by cardshark or valor. Come on dude it's 5c/10c on party! Nobody is folding 2 pair/set/worse straight there. LOL at the thought of villain tank folding a small flush!

Lastly - just a small thing on the river c/r size. Villain started the hand with $10. If we crai its about $4.60 to him with about $16 in the pot.

Point taken about the major action taking place once flush becomes possible - I just think its unlikely he has one and he will call with worse. You think its quite possible he has one and wont call with worse. I'll withdraw my -You are wrong here- from earlier and say you may possibly be wrong here. I dunno tbh!(thread consensus seems to suggest I'm wrong)

Finally after all that, in real time i'd probably just call the river. I just "might" check/shove

[Hectorjelly]

I had thought about this previously, but if you think he is cbetting his flush draws, why would he not bet his open ender on the flop?

[bustamoves]

I had thought about this previously, but if you think he is cbetting his flush draws, why would he not bet his open ender on the flop?

no openender on flop (?)

i think this hand is close between calling and reshoving. i certainly think he will always call with any straight, sets and flushes obviously and maybe 2pair hands some% of the time.

my initial reaction was that i would reship because it is so unusual for the vast majority of players to pass up a cbet when they open and flop comes K hi with their particular flushdraw. i mean its the most standard cbet of all time and so i would always make the presumption that he never has a made flush when he raises our turn bet and that it is way more likely something like a set, straight, two pair or pair+ redraw. if we can confidently make this assumption then i think its incorrect to compare flushes combos vs the others since we rule flushes out so reshoving is obv more EV.

if we ever think that he is the type to ck his FDs for some reason or another then its obviously becomes a super standard call. but i think this is a reshove given the description and info we have.

[Mellor]

no openender on flop (?)

J9 on an KQx flop = openender

[bustamoves]

J9 on an KQx flop = openender

no, i was just saying did hj think there was by mistake but i see now that its just him making a point from the BS post.

[Winning!]

Just call turn, call river, dont c/r river, dont CIB/call turn, trying to reason out why villain doesn't have a flush in this spot is pointless, c/raising is super-thin and super-strong, in no way benefits our long-term ROI. After all the reasoning in the end it's micro-stakes and people just don't do what you expect them to, you'll c/r and get snapped with a flush.

[Hectorjelly]

no, i was just saying did hj think there was by mistake but i see now that its just him making a point from the BS post.

No you are right, I got confused and thought he had an open ender on the flop rather than a gut shot.

[bustamoves]

Just call turn, call river, dont c/r river, dont CIB/call turn, trying to reason out why villain doesn't have a flush in this spot is pointless, c/raising is super-thin and super-strong, in no way benefits our long-term ROI. After all the reasoning in the end it's micro-stakes and people just don't do what you expect them to, you'll c/r and get snapped with a flush.

i think there is a contradiction in saying it's 'super thin...and in no way benefits our long term ROI'. if it's any amount thin that means we believe it's to some extent +Ev and any move that's +Ev in a cash game positively affects our Long term ROI.

if we are playing an mtt i'm all for just calling obv but this is a cash game where if we are confident something is thin we should go with it to maximise winrate. there may be another situation though for e.g. in a head ups cash game where we might feel it better to pass a marginal spot like this where we know we will take the rest anyway. in 6max we are competing with 4 others for the same opportunity.

[DaKlowen]

I personally dont like the 3bet its not going to be that pretty a hand oop in a 3 way pot potentially.

that's why we 3bet !

[Mellor]

no, i was just saying did hj think there was by mistake but i see now that its just him making a point from the BS post.

ah right, I thought you were also saying there as an openender