RUBGY WORLD CUP

[amberleaf]

were there any British Channels showing the England match? Had to watch the shit on TG4

think santanta and itv have got them all,if you go to the itv website all the details are there

[Semibluff]

*Rugby

[TheDrunkenOne]

you can watch online

i use this fwiw

handy if u aint near tv

http://www.tvcatchup.com/login.html?c=4

[amberleaf]

first round of games sorted,intresting stuff dont think any of the favs have beaten the hcp set by the book!

[Emmet]

Absolutely beasted through the first round.

Said that backing the + in the HC blindly would be a winning manouevere. Expected a few results but beating the lot was class!!!

[amberleaf]

rekon the boks are there for the takeing,their 2nd row looks under pressure already and by the time the fiji and somoa steam-roller machines are finished with them their injury list is bound to grow,if ireland lose v australia(which is almost certain) and dont fuck up v italy,russia,they will face them in the 1/4 final,theres got to be one good game in this irish team and as wales showed they are well beatable.is it worth backing ireland to get to the semis @ 2/1 with the option to lay off during the 1/4 finals.still think the key game here is v italy.i didnt see the game but they held australia to 6 pts each at 1/2 time,so they cant be that bad!btw was just looking at the rte sport comment section,some people have lost the plot,one guy even wanted the irish team to be flown home!

[Warper]

rekon the boks are there for the takeing,their 2nd row looks under pressure already and by the time the fiji and somoa steam-roller machines are finished with them their injury list is bound to grow,if ireland lose v australia(which is almost certain) and dont fuck up v italy,russia,they will face them in the 1/4 final,theres got to be one good game in this irish team and as wales showed they are well beatable.is it worth backing ireland to get to the semis @ 2/1 with the option to lay off during the 1/4 finals.still think the key game here is v italy.i didnt see the game but they held australia to 6 pts each at 1/2 time,so they cant be that bad!btw was just looking at the rte sport comment section,some people have lost the plot,one guy even wanted the irish team to be flown home!

SA are still a formidable force. They didnt play well yesterday but still won. I couldnt see Ireland beating them. This whole idea that Ireland have one big game in them is bull imo. The same thing was been said in 2007 and we never got a performance. This looks like the exact same scenario. There is nothing to suggest we are currently a good team. We will be doing well to beat Italy.

[Warper]

11/09/2011 Treble To Win Fiji @ 10/11
Handicap Betting(+23.0)
South Africa v Fiji
Romania @ 10/11
Handicap Betting(+27.0)
Argentina v Romania Pending
Georgia @ 10/11
Handicap Betting(+22.0)
Scotland v Georgia Pending

[amberleaf]

SA are still a formidable force. They didnt play well yesterday but still won. I couldnt see Ireland beating them. This whole idea that Ireland have one big game in them is bull imo. The same thing was been said in 2007 and we never got a performance. This looks like the exact same scenario. There is nothing to suggest we are currently a good team. We will be doing well to beat Italy.

yes the italy game in my mind is the big one alright,not too sure about 2007 thing,that was then,this is now!ireland did look like shite tbh,but if they had come out and flogged the yanks dont think it would have mattered in the long run,what do you think of peter de villiers?

[Warper]

yes the italy game in my mind is the big one alright,not too sure about 2007 thing,that was then,this is now!ireland did look like shite tbh,but if they had come out and flogged the yanks dont think it would have mattered in the long run,what do you think of peter de villiers?

Bit of a nutjob. His decision to leave arguably the best hooker in the world on the bench yesterday says it all. I dont know how long Matfield is out for but he would be a massive loss. They are still quality and always time their run right in the WC. Ireland on the other hand look all over the place. This swapping and subbing the No. 10 is doing no one any good. Pick a No. 10 and stick with him. Can see us really struggling again this time.

[Emmet]

Week 2.1 Predictions.

My Russia/USA pick holds no weight. In fact most of these are not high confidence picks. I feel that Japan are going to feel the brunt of the All Blacks though. I'd smash the ABs side of the HC as my main bet this week. Again, Evens available on the HCs with BarOneRacing, and 10/11 in most other places.

FML, thought that the bookies had priced the NZ HC as mid 40s. Must've missed it.

I hate when the line you'd set matches up with the bookies. I seem to be wrong on the USA/Russia game altogether though, but I feel that Russia will he fresh and play their game of the tournament vs the USA, realistically the only game that they can challenge, and also their first. Worth a small bet I think...

[amberleaf]

Bit of a nutjob. His decision to leave arguably the best hooker in the world on the bench yesterday says it all. I dont know how long Matfield is out for but he would be a massive loss. They are still quality and always time their run right in the WC. Ireland on the other hand look all over the place. This swapping and subbing the No. 10 is doing no one any good. Pick a No. 10 and stick with him. Can see us really struggling again this time.

bit of a nutter alright,think he might start smit v fiji,and perhaps du plessis there after.intresting stat from fijis last game,87 tackles made(MISSED 27)i didnt see the game but thats crazy stuff,if that stands up the boks, i feel could just have a field day against them so might have a look at the under/over markets.but i think the boks will have much bigger tests ahead,injurys i think may play a big part with two first choice already on the sideline!

i'll dissagree on the ireland team,i think this irish team do have a huge game in them,when you look at them on paper and see the grand slam,triple crowns,and the club level wins(HC,ML)that these lads have won over the last four years theyve got to be better than what we saw over last 8 weeks or so,they had a 19 handling errors with tommy bowe top of the list with 3,and he scored 2 trys then throw the kicking form, on a good day its a different story,and to be fair a lot of teams had trouble with the ball.think aus will beat them but not by much,win the last two games and should meet the boks(or samoa,could very well be the surprize package of the tourny)and thats a one off game,or maybe i'm just grasping at straws,but as an irish man,i truly hope not.

[amberleaf]

Week 2.1 Predictions.

My Russia/USA pick holds no weight. In fact most of these are not high confidence picks. I feel that Japan are going to feel the brunt of the All Blacks though. I'd smash the ABs side of the HC as my main bet this week. Again, Evens available on the HCs with BarOneRacing, and 10/11 in most other places.

FML, thought that the bookies had priced the NZ HC as mid 40s. Must've missed it.

I hate when the line you'd set matches up with the bookies. I seem to be wrong on the USA/Russia game altogether though, but I feel that Russia will he fresh and play their game of the tournament vs the USA, realistically the only game that they can challenge, and also their first. Worth a small bet I think...

think russia are well worth a small put @ 12/5(pp),think what we saw v ireland is what you get from this usa team tbh it wasnt much
scotland have made 9 changes v georgia,georgia are fresh and have 13 starters plying their trade in france as well as one on the bench,the +21pts worth a small bet,as i think anything could happen here
also might a small bet on the boks -22 v fiji,depending on the team,rekon they'll be out to prove a point against a team who according to the stats on the rugby world cup site cant tackle for their lives!

holy shit if you had put a simple 10 euro accum on the + side of the hcp(at evens) for the first round matches you would be looking at a return 2600 euro!

[Emmet]

holy shit if you had put a simple 10 euro accum on the + side of the hcp(at evens) for the first round matches you would be looking at a return 2600 euro!

hindsight. Never look at things this way!

Though one of the boardsies had a €15 accum with some of the teams but not all. Think it was a €800+ winner.

Not bad punting!

[amberleaf]

hindsight. Never look at things this way!

Though one of the boardsies had a €15 accum with some of the teams but not all. Think it was a €800+ winner.

Not bad punting!

not sure but i think it was brian cody who said one of the best sayings i've ever heard

"hingsight is the foresight of a gobshite" nice touch on the 800 alright

[Emmet]

random punter tip alert

I got 28/1 for Gorgodze man of the match from paddypower you have to ring for the preice..ﾀ20 on this myself

If you not to familiar with Gorgodze watch this..He's a BEAST!

Georgia's best player and if they are to push the Scots close he'll be at centre of everything..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXBeK8B2NTM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3muchC9D2YU

[amberleaf]

top player in france last year as well,see the line has dropped to 17 pts!dk to name the irish team to face oz later tonight,reckon o brien,redding,o garra maybe trimble to come in.looking at the lowish scoreing angle at this game,might be worth a look after the teams come out

[Emmet]

top player in france last year as well,see the line has dropped to 17 pts!dk to name the irish team to face oz later tonight,reckon o brien,redding,o garra maybe trimble to come in.looking at the lowish scoreing angle at this game,might be worth a look after the teams come out

posted Brendan Fanning's team earlier, he's been right about every team selection for months, he's a journo working with the team over there at the moment.

Kearney back in for Murphy, SOB in for Jennings, Reddan starting for Murray, Healy in for Court

They're the only changes

[amberleaf]

that makes a lot of sence alright,hopefully they'll click and give us something to shout about sat morning

[Emmet]

that makes a lot of sence alright,hopefully they'll click and give us something to shout about sat morning

punting head says - we're getting murdered and 11.5 is far too generous a HC for us. Australia are a class above us in the game that they play. Man for Man we are comparable, but they're playing a game that works, and that will work well against us.

Rugby heart says - Fuck you Aussies, we're gonna frustrate you and ROG will drop a last minute wonky drop goal with the scores at 21-19 to win the game.

[amberleaf]

ahhh just like v wales,id settle for that,if ireland have any chance they've got to put the bodys on the line,slow the ball down if it becomes a open game we are in deep shit.one thing about dk over the years he's a great man for the the big games,if you can take anything out of the warm up games,it was the game away v france,they soaked up a lot of pressure before haveing a right go back,reckon this will be ugly nuff to watch but im edgeing towards a lowest scoreing game!

[Emmet]

ahhh just like v wales,id settle for that,if ireland have any chance they've got to put the bodys on the line,slow the ball down if it becomes a open game we are in deep shit.one thing about dk over the years he's a great man for the the big games,if you can take anything out of the warm up games,it was the game away v france,they soaked up a lot of pressure before haveing a right go back,reckon this will be ugly nuff to watch but im edgeing towards a lowest scoreing game!

we have no #7 in our XXII, we haven't a hope of slowing the ball down.

David Pocock gonna Pocock.

[amberleaf]

was thinking a bit of a kicking game in the first 1/2,(pen,drop goals)thus unders in the total points first half only is out the door then?

[Donk Magnet]

my bet for the weekend pays abt 25/1 on pp

France (-33.0) 10/11
Wales (-9.0) 10/11
Australia (-11.0) 10/11
South Africa (-22.0) 10/11
Russia (+8.0) evens

[Emmet]

Samoa are just a massively physical side, with a tendency to tackle poorly / high and infringe on the physical/dangerous side of the game.

It's true of the Pacific Islanders in general. They're just bigger guys.

Yellow cards in rugby come mostly from two sources, one dangerous tackles, two repeated infringements at the breakdown.

It's far harder to predict the latter as almost every referee has a different interpretation of the breakdown, and some are more yellow happy than others.

http://stats.espnscrum.com/statsguru/rugby/stats/index.html

http://www.rugbydata.com/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmWexCv51cg

lol

[Emmet]

gameweek 3 picks. Again pre HC checking...

[amberleaf]

pumas are -19 looks about right
boks are - 22 think they might beat this one
ozzies -11,way out,ireland to win by 1:
wales-9,bang on,i'd say but hard to call imho
england-37,might be a little high,think 27-34 myself
france -32,think france might beat this one
all on pp,not too far wrong lad

[Emmet]

France (-32) is the bet so.

However, I will say this with the provisio that any bet I've ever had with France has been a loser. They always mess me up.

[Downtown]

Really fancy Samoa this weekend with the handicap. Think they are gonna be too physical for a young welsh team.

[Emmet]

Really fancy Samoa this weekend with the handicap. Think they are gonna be too physical for a young welsh team.

Wales managed to hold a similarly physical and more able English team to a small defeat and in fact beat them recently.

I fancy the anytime yellow card market though...

[amberleaf]

i'm edgeing towards s.a.-22 tbh,showed a little weakness and not too sure if the changes is nuff to plug the holes,also dont think the boks injurys will be a huge loss this time round,maybe next time around tho!also think ths hcp will get smashed on some of the gamesand reckon theres only a few teams that have the scoreing power can do that,nz,boks,france,ozzies(not this weekend of course)
on paper the georgia +37 looks well but better wait and see what teams are named
france just might have a field day,if the tonga match takes its toll on the mounties
the pumas?hard to call but romania look to have just one way of playing,are they good nuff to take advantage,use the wings a little,maybe!

[Downtown]

Wales managed to hold a similarly physical and more able English team to a small defeat and in fact beat them recently.

I fancy the anytime yellow card market though...

Yeah I fancy that too. Although England are physical their style of play is not quite as abrasive as the Samoans. Also i think psychologically the welsh team are more familiar to the English players. I really think they can be rattled and that +9 is a big price

[Solskjaer]

Yeah I fancy that too. Although England are physical their style of play is not quite as abrasive as the Samoans. Also i think psychologically the welsh team are more familiar to the English players. I really think they can be rattled and that +9 is a big price

I can't see that bet losing . I'm actually backing them to beat Wales without the handicap. What odds on them getting to the semi?

[amberleaf]

i dont know guys,but for me the best home nation for me was wales in the opening games by a country mile,theyre a young team so you would think that the efforts of the game v s.a. wont be a prob. towards the end of this game,also with the yellow cards,you would think that there would be a better chance that they would fall on the somoa side!looking at both games that they have played,reckon wales have a great chance in a must win game,tod clever cited,big blow for the usa if that goes thru!

aus. to win by 1-12 pts @ 11/8 on pp any good?

[Emmet]

anyone looking for a "hope bet"

If your backing Ireland to win then winning margin 1-5 @ 8/1 is good value. Exact winning margins are worth a look too. They wont win by any more than a score imo.

Ireland by
1-5 @ 8/1

6 @ 50
7 @ 50

[amberleaf]

we have no #7 in our XXII, we haven't a hope of slowing the ball down.

David Pocock gonna Pocock.

not this time pocock out injured!

[TheDrunkenOne]

fist pumping reaching new levels .....awesome

[luckforsome]

...Fantastic performance...Ballsy is a good word to describe it...I had Irealdn +11, not needed in the end -)...have them in double with manu -1 along with a couple of Horsies...Great Victory though...

[amberleaf]

ozzie who?

[The Situation]

Really fancy Samoa this weekend with the handicap. Think they are gonna be too physical for a young welsh team.

Good shout. Nice one to wake up to.

[Emmet]

random punter tip alert

this came in... Gorgodze for MotM @ 28/1

Hope someone threw a euro or more on it!

[amberleaf]

this came in... Gorgodze for MotM @ 28/1

Hope someone threw a euro or more on it!

nice touch,course missed it myself,tod clever from usa ok to play,might be worth a look in the motm for their last two games,tends to be in the middle of everything for them

[amberleaf]

what hcp would you put on the nz v france game?also japan @ 5/2 looks way too high!may be not

[amberleaf]

my thinking behind the rwc so far is that the odds compilers have got the hcp wrong so far,and they did get it wrong in a big way!the reason i think is that they didnt have a nuff sample matches to go on,as the tourny goes on the bigger the sample,the bigger the sample the more chance they have to get it right.THIS IS WHY I RARELY BACK ON FOOTBALLthe sample is just too big,the bigger the sample, the less of the edge,its that simple!i think in the 1st round of matches they did a little research,fired a line out there and let the money form the markets,a good example of this was the scot v georgia match,they set the line too high,the money flowed in and they dropped the line by a huge 7 pts.so as the 3rd round of matches get going,imo they have a great chance of getting the line right,so i think in certain matches its time to join them(after all its what they do,and they do it well)and do the decent thing and start backing the winning margins,set by the hcp.ie if they say the hcp is one team to win by lets say 16 pts,and you get a winning margin like 14-20 pts @ 6/1,well back it,after all they are the pros

[Emmet]

tough tips this week, don't have much weight/faith in my convictions after missing most of the games needed to base expectations on.

Tipster who's reasoning and logic is sound imo. He's the man behind the 28/1 winner above

Italy vs Russia.

Going for Parisse man of the match @ 5/1, he will be head and shoulders above any other player on the pitch and should control things for Italy. The only worry is if someone like Masi runs in a hattrick to snatch award from him.

Masi anytime tryscorer @ 6/4 is also appealing as his form in six nations was very strong so most likely of the Italian backs to cause damage.

Under 44.5 pts @ 11/10 interests me too but I will wait for kickoff to assess weather conditions before kickoff.

Lastly my largest bet is on Russia +9 HT handicap @ evens

I expect Russia to be competitive in first half and keep score down but playing their second match in 5 days will tire and Italy should run in some scores in second half to claim bonus point and cover 22 point match handicap.

[JackBurton]

Strongly fancy Italy -22 against Putins gang in the morning.

We absolutely took USA's pack apart when we played them and I was stunned to see how they were then able to be so much better than Russia's forwards when they met. I thought Russia would be more than a match for them up front but after seeing that game I think Italy will absolutely pulverise them as we all know Italy's strength is their pack.

Don't forget also Italy will be just as pleased as us that we beat the Aussies. They'll be thinking, and rightly so, that they have a great opportunity of reaching the quarter finals and a 4 try bonus point could yet be crucial.

The game seems very similar to the Argentina v Romania game where I wasn't sure if the Argies would have enough flair to cover a 30+ handicap. Their forwards totally dominated and that alone was enough to cover the h'cap quite easily in the end.

All this leads me to the strong conclusion that Italy will be far too powerful up front and will cover the -22 handicap and set up a D-Day game against Ireland.

[JackBurton]

Half hour gone and 31-0. Safe to say bet up already, time to go to work.

[amberleaf]

Half hour gone and 31-0. Safe to say bet up already, time to go to work.

good call lad,was hopeing the bears would hold tuff in the 1st half,no joy tho!pumas -2 v scotland looks intresting

[amberleaf]

intresting stuff i came across on line

wales coach warren gatland offered his players a day off,have a few beers,relax a bit...............none of the players took him up on his offer

england coach martin johnson offered the same to his players...........they ended up going on the piss,gropeing the local ladies and throwing a few dwarfs around the place all with in eyeshot of the uk reporters,and johnson was on the "bible"yesterday pissen himself about the teams discipline!imho this man has the tactical awareness of a donkey down in tramore beach!

[Emmet]

I like the + in the Aus game. USA are a physical team and should be able to hold the Aus to not enough scoring chances to wind up 45+ points up.

small bets only though, an Aus backlash could also happen...

[shrapnel]

this came in... Gorgodze for MotM @ 28/1

Hope someone threw a euro or more on it!

no it didn't . this was tipped for the scotland game. gorgodze got MOtM in the England game

[Emmet]

no it didn't . this was tipped for the scotland game. gorgodze got MOtM in the England game

ha, oops. Not too bad a spot though.

I haven't been doing any betting as bank balance is at 3 figures (£1.19), so am only doing the prediction competitions really.

[shrapnel]

ha, oops. Not too bad a spot though.

I haven't been doing any betting as bank balance is at 3 figures (£1.19), so am only doing the prediction competitions really.

was a very good bet in fairness

[amberleaf]

was listening to talksport yesterday,they were talking to some reporters down in nz,and they were all about sean o brien,didnt know he was european player of the year last year,might be worth a little motm bet,if and when selected.was also thinking about tod clever from the usa,think with the goings on about cooper,if he gets in one of his big tackles might be worth a little flutter at what could be huge odds

[Emmet]

I like the + in the Aus game. USA are a physical team and should be able to hold the Aus to not enough scoring chances to wind up 45+ points up.

small bets only though, an Aus backlash could also happen...

Completely scratch this bet. Just saw the Aus team. Aus are going to put 80 points on USA's second string side.

this is going to be a shambolic affair I think.

Given the team news Australia -60 is gonna have to be smashed into.treble Aus/ SA/Eng all to beat handicaps @ 7/1--well worth a punt.

[amberleaf]

was listening to talksport yesterday,they were talking to some reporters down in nz,and they were all about sean o brien,didnt know he was european player of the year last year,might be worth a little motm bet,if and when selected.was also thinking about tod clever from the usa,think with the goings on about cooper,if he gets in one of his big tackles might be worth a little flutter at what could be huge odds

did some research on the motm market,on how its priced up and how the player is selected etc.the market is settled on the man of the match section on the irb website with pp so i would think its the same for any other bookmaker,who provides the market.it works on a split vote with the public votes counting for 1/3 of the total votes,and the other 2/3rds elsewhere.i kept a eye on the site during the last match and the public vote as far as i could make out closed at about the 60th min,so if you think a certain player might make more of a impact at the start of the game,depending on team selection,formation etc.theres also a past winnings link with the persentages of the vote they got,so perhaps certain positions in certain matches might be the way to go.it might help that public part of the vote along.i emailed the site to see if i could get any info on the other side,but just got a link back to the voteing,so no joy there.as far as i could tell its not the local nz jornos that make up the last 2/3rds so any "ill feeling"as they say that they might have, shouldnt come into play.its not huge info,but as the prices here are fairly good but it might help in make any descision making

[Emmet]

the MotM markets are a bit bizarre. I'd only look for madly priced players that you feel might be influential based on one team's strengths vs another's weaknesses.

I'd steer clear tbh

[westlife]

looking for an interest in the aussy vs usa match. thought 8/11 aussies first score with try looked a bet. the handicap option is usa +61.......
sports betting freaks please help (hurry)

[The C Kid]

looking for an interest in the aussy vs usa match. thought 8/11 aussies first score with try looked a bet. the handicap option is usa +61.......
sports betting freaks please help (hurry)

First score Aussie try, and Australia to cover.

[westlife]

First score Aussie try, and Australia to cover.

USA fielding a much weaker team then the first game? (sorry, not 'up' on Rugby....)