Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Mammy told me not to come.

[LuckyLloyd]

I fundamentally disagree with Murdum on this point. The only country who have got their new case rate down to 0 is China, and they are the only country to effect a full lockdown for an extended period with full compliance.

Germany and SK have advanced health capability and the latter is tracking movements of citizens. It’s comparing an apple to an orange, really.

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[shrapnel]

Tiger King on netflix delivers. docu series of 7 episodes. currently on 6 and just keeps delivering. Americans are batshit crazy.

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[LuckyLloyd]

Actually it's likely the opposite. The argument for delaying it is to avoid enforcing it for too long.

And that argument is flawed, and the Brits spent too long listening to behavioural scientists on it. The earlier you enforce lockdown and the lower the case load you start it with, the lower the amount of infections that will take hold during the first two weeks of lockdown. Really, there’s no good reason to wait. Why allow some level of exponential growth another week or two weeks to run riot.

Shut everything down. Now.

[LuckyLloyd]

Tiger King on netflix delivers. docu series of 7 episodes. currently on 6 and just keeps delivering. Americans are batshit crazy.

It’s entertaining but difficult to watch, in all honesty. They’re all damaged hicks and it becomes sad and depressing more than entertaining towards the end.

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[Kayroo]

And that argument is flawed, and the Brits spent too long listening to behavioural scientists on it. The earlier you enforce lockdown and the lower the case load you start it with, the lower the amount of infections that will take hold during the first two weeks of lockdown. Really, there’s no good reason to wait. Why allow some level of exponential growth another week or two weeks to run riot.

Shut everything down. Now.

I'm sorry what you've done there is say my argument is flawed without pointing out the flaw. Care to expand?

To be clear, my point is that we do not have the resources to go in to and enforce a full scale lockdown of the entire country for 5 or more weeks at this point. We would require a much greater social buy in for that to work. There's likely also logistical problems the government need to work out first.

On a different note I am uncomfortable with how a government without a mandate, which was never approved by the current Dail, can enforce what is tantamount to martial law.

[Guest]

I fundamentally disagree with Murdum on this point. The only country who have got their new case rate down to 0 is China, and they are the only country to effect a full lockdown for an extended period with full compliance.

Germany and SK have advanced health capability and the latter is tracking movements of citizens. It’s comparing an apple to an orange, really.

I think we disagree to a point but I also think I've softened on my position regarding the impingement on people. As I mentioned before on a continuum between SK and China, I'm more on the SK side but not completely against some restrictions.

I just think the aim isn't zero to be honest. That number won't come until a vaccine arrives so if we can't reach it then I don't see the point in trying.

Effectively in order to get there, you would need a global alignment across all nations to self isolate for x period of time, I just don't believe that is feasible.

Read the Irish doctor from WHO: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2190FM

Mass lockdowns won't solve this, it's about education, testing and dissemination of information. We are effectively in a new reality for the next 12-18 months, it's about getting use to that.

Mass lockdowns are blunt force instruments that aren't going to work long term, we need a more nuanced approach which I believe we are making inroads towards.

FWIW I don't think the numbers I shared are simply linear but they do make a point. People complain that 40k people in Ireland waiting for tests, again equivalent of 500k people waiting on tests in Italy.

[LuckyLloyd]

I'm sorry what you've done there is say my argument is flawed without pointing out the flaw. Care to expand?

To be clear, my point is that we do not have the resources to go in to and enforce a full scale lockdown of the entire country for 5 or more weeks at this point. We would require a much greater social buy in for that to work. There's likely also logistical problems the government need to work out first.

On a different note I am uncomfortable with how a government without a mandate, which was never approved by the current Dail, can enforce what is tantamount to martial law.

The flaw is saying we should wait for longer so we don’t need to impose more restrictive policy for longer. We already have gone half the way, and case load is rising. The greater the case load when we impose harsher measures the more infections that will run through the isolated population meaning the longer it will take to reduce new cases down to a level we are comfortable with to release restrictions.

Essentially you should go as harsh as you can as early as you can so you come out the other side as soon as you can.

[Guest]

Still on the side of testing and isolating over lockdown. CMO has already said that the majority of new cases are transmission within family.

[ComradeCollie]

In Italy people are dying with no familial audience, no fanfare, no funeral. We’ve read about this in history books around the Spanish flu, but I seriously doubt society is prepped for what it will be like (I certainly am not).

Ah shure we bounced right back after the potato famine. We'll be grand

Hope Mdoug is having adventures that he can entertain the survivors with when things settle down.

[Keane]

Your approach works (maybe, I don't know) if we also do what the Asian countries have done and enforce masks for going outside. Just needs getting a lot more masks and giving every person a hundred of them then topping it up periodically when needed. But getting those masks is a big issue at the moment.

Where is this advice for everyone to wear masks coming from?

[dobby]

Seems a lot of places closed down today. Subway, Beshoffs, McDonalds. Not sure exactly what else but this could be the start of a nationwide shutdown. March 29th was the date quoted when the first announcement was made, cant see the pubs open by the 30th

[6starpool]

Where is this advice for everyone to wear masks coming from?

From hitch's head. Official medical advice is to not wear masks as most people won't be wearing them effectively anyhow.

[rounders123]

Making no effort to home school these boys . A lifetime of lay about awaits them maybe but at least I haven't murdered them. I simply pretend they are actual monkeys
and toss toys and food in their general direction. Home school , yer avin a laff.

That's your normal shtick with adults too!

[Strewelpeter]

Why don't we have a gdpr busting opt in phone app that would open up location data to the HSE for contact tracing ?

[newbie2]

Claire Byrne confirmed infected.
they ahd a whole crew Out in her shed last week wearing fucking masks.

��

[Raoul Duke III]

That's your normal shtick with adults too!

Chimps

Haven't heard that for quite some time. :tren

[Solksjaer!]

Chimps

Haven't heard that for quite some time. :tren

Had to tone that expression down since the innocuous misunderstanding with a very tanned individual from Brixton. .

[Solksjaer!]

If I die from covid throw me on a bonfire. Not arsed about a funeral. I'd be morto

[Solksjaer!]

Claire Byrne confirmed infected.
they ahd a whole crew Out in her shed last week wearing fucking masks.

��

Fk it I'd still chance it with her. You ?

[newbie2]

Fk it I'd still chance it with her. You ?

Nah, she told everyone last time









😏

[LuckyLloyd]

Still on the side of testing and isolating over lockdown. CMO has already said that the majority of new cases are transmission within family.

You still test and contact trace under lockdown. Just makes your contact tracing, treatment and isolation far more effective. It’s not either / or.

[Skankhunt42]

Fk it I'd still chance it with her. You ?

It was a very nice shed.

[Theresa]

You still test and contact trace under lockdown. Just makes your contact tracing, treatment and isolation far more effective. It’s not either / or.

Exactly.

A hard lockdown drastically reduces the vectors of transmission and drastically reduces the likelihood of lengthy transmission chains.

If the goal is to find it (which out WHO Irish bucko has been saying) allowing it to run away in all directions makes it harder. A lock down means the directions it can run in are less and less.

[Guest]

[Opr]

Verfied Critical Care doctor working in a UK high consequence infectious diseases centre.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fnl0n6/im_a_critical_care_doctor_working_in_a_uk_high/

There's been a lot of confusion regarding the UK government policy re Herd Immunity and being contradicted by different officials. Was this ever part of the administrations plan, or was it just a miscommunication from BoJo? I understand if you don't have details and are the wrong person to ask.

I'm sad to say that I do have the details, and there has been intense discussion about this over the past weeks. To answer your question: "herd immunity" would have been a beneficial outcome to slowing virus growth to a prolonged period of time. It was not a primary outcome.

That said, the official policy was wholly wrong and when all the dust has settled, when all the costs and lives have been counted, people have to make their governments accountable.

I'll tell you what happened in the UK.

Over the past decade, eminent figures in public health developed complex models that would help inform the UK response to a pandemic. The response plan would allow slow spread through a population and a number of deaths that would be deemed acceptable in relation to low economic impact. Timing of population measures such as social distancing would be taken, not early, but at a times deemed to have maximal psychological impact. Measures would be taken that could protect the most vulnerable, and most of the people who got the virus would hopefully survive. Herd immunity would beneficially emerge at the end of this, and restrictions could relax. This was a ground-breaking approach compared to suppressing epidemics. It was an approach that could revolutionise the way we handled epidemics. Complex modelling is a new science, and this was cutting edge.

But a model is only ever as good as the assumptions you build it upon. The UK plan was based on models with an assumption that any new pandemic would be like an old one, like flu. And it also carried a huge flaw - there was no accounting for the highly significant variables of ventilators and critical care beds that are key to maintaining higher survival numbers (https://www.newstatesman.com/politic...event-pandemic).

So, come 2020 and COVID-19 causes disaster in China, Iran and Italy. Epidemiologists and doctors from around the world observe, and learn valuable lessons:

the virus is insidious with a long incubation, any population actions you take will only have an effect weeks later

the virus spreads remarkably quickly and effectively

the virus causes an unusually large proportion of patients to require invasive ventilatory support

early large scale testing, and social distancing measures, are effective at stopping exponential growth

stopping exponential growth is VITAL to preventing your critical care systems from being overwhelmed.

Everyone in the world could see these things. But despite this, very few governments chose to act.

The UK did the opposite of acting. In an act of what I see as sheer arrogance, they chose to do nothing, per the early stages of their disaster plan. There was some initial contact tracing, but this stopped when it was clear that there was significant community spread and exponential growth. And after this? They did not ramp up testing capabilities. They did not encourage social distancing. They did not boost PPE supply, or plan for surge capacity. They ignored advice from the WHO, public health experts in other country; epidemiologists, scientists and doctors in their own. I can tell you with certainty now that they did not even collect regular statistics for how many COVID patients were being admitted to critical care in the UK. They did nothing.

What were they thinking? Maybe that what had happened in China, and was happening in Italy, couldn't possibly happen in the UK, right? It was impossible. And it was still the the perfect time to test the plan out!

Well COVID-19 is not flu. That is perfectly clear. And it was clear that the UK numbers were following, exponentially, the same trend as Italy. But still the government and their advisers stuck to their guns and put out reassuring messages. I would ask here - why did they still think we would be different?

Finally, a team at Imperial informing the government's response put up-to-date COVID-19 data into the historical models that the UK plan was based on (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf), and predicted in a best case scenario 250,000 deaths and excess of 8x surge capacity of UK intensive cares. They concluded that our approach was wrong, and that "Epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time".

Where are we now?

The government has instituted a number of measures that they previously called "unscientific", but has not mandated them.

We are far, far into the exponential curve both in deaths and critical care numbers, and there is at least two weeks more growth until any of the half-hearted measures taken might kick in.

We do not have sufficient testing capability for even hospital patients, who sometimes wait days for a test result. There are not enough tests for anyone in the community, or any healthcare workers who might have symptoms.

Hospitals are scrambling to produce surge capacity, and several smaller hospitals in London are now overwhelmed with COVID and out of ventilators.

There is clearly not enough PPE in the country and we are rushing to secure supplies.

Don't believe the UK government propaganda when they say that they are only advancing along the same plan at a faster pace. It is total bollocks. Their plan was wrong, kaput, totally broken. They chose to perform an experiment on an entire population, a trial of 'new epidemic mitigation strategy in UK' vs 'epidemic suppression in rest of the world'. They refused to listen to experts from all over the world because of sheer arrogance, and in their arrogance they did not observe the lessons that were there, plain to see. They have backtracked completely and are now doing what most world public health experts and what the WHO asked them to do in the first place. They've wasted a month, at least.

Will they suffer? Hell no. It will be the vulnerable in the population, the unlucky young, and the medical staff at the front line.

When the final counts return in months or a years time, don't let them get away with it.

Opr

[Guest]

If the infection criteria we've been fed since day 1 is true (15 min at <2m), and as far as I know they haven't revised it yet, then people walking on the beach or around Glendalough is harmless. I think the whole thing is being stoked by social media and as Leo said this morning they'll act on medical advice and not what's trending on Twitter.

[TM2204]

Your approach works (maybe, I don't know) if we also do what the Asian countries have done and enforce masks for going outside. Just needs getting a lot more masks and giving every person a hundred of them then topping it up periodically when needed. But getting those masks is a big issue at the moment.

Masks (even the disposable N95 ones) are only effective at somewhat helping you to prevent passing the virus to others if you are infected. They are ineffective at preventing you contracting the virus due to a lack of (or bad) seal around the nose & mouth. You need a P3 rated respirator to achieve this and to ensure it's fitted/sealed airtight around your nose/mouth.

[Denny Crane]

Why don't we have a gdpr busting opt in phone app that would open up location data to the HSE for contact tracing ?

http://safepaths.mit.edu/

[TM2204]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgBla7RepXU&t=2s

One of the better videos I've watched over the past few days.

[noname1255]

whats happening with the dutch didnt they do the same as the uk?
hows that going?

[rounders123]

Masks (even the disposable N95 ones) are only effective at somewhat helping you to prevent passing the virus to others if you are infected. They are ineffective at preventing you contracting the virus due to a lack of (or bad) seal around the nose & mouth. You need a P3 rated respirator to achieve this and to ensure it's fitted/sealed airtight around your nose/mouth.

Is this what Fergal O'Brien and Ken Doherty wear to bed to stay forever young!?.
Theyre up to something those 2 lads in that respect.
Heaslip slept in an oxygen tent. But that was entirely different reasons!.

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[rounders123]

https://betkings.ie/
Irish licenced, owned, and operated on the GG Poker network. Lot of Asian players Midday being peak Chinese 🇨🇳 hours in time difference.

Curious to know which Irish person owns and operates this?. Is this a franchise of Nigerian owned Betking?.

[DeadParrot]

A quick IT question. Not sure if I asked it before, but still struggling with it. Have downloaded a very large set of news articles and presumably for space reasons they are stored as avro files. Is there a straightforward way I can extract the data of interest in e.g. python or R, or some random other program? Turning them into CSVs would be fine too, if that's possible. Have tried googling but keep running into loads of problems.

convert to JSON then parse using the tag?

[Tar.Aldarion]

219 cases, 2 deaths.

Leo Varadkar said if further measures were recommended then the Government would implement them.

But Mr Varadkar also said that people should not be berated for going to places that were crowded at the weekend.

He said they probably did not realise until they turned up there and said that he believed most people were observing social distancing

The Taoiseach said decisions would not be made because things were trending on Twitter.

[Opr]

A quick IT question. Not sure if I asked it before, but still struggling with it. Have downloaded a very large set of news articles and presumably for space reasons they are stored as avro files. Is there a straightforward way I can extract the data of interest in e.g. python or R, or some random other program? Turning them into CSVs would be fine too if that's possible. Have tried googling but keep running into loads of problems.

I'm not sure what you intend doing with the data as this will require a bit of setup but once up and running would serve amazingly well for data analysis. Setup the ELK stack. It is all open source stuff.

You index the documents into ElasticSearch through Logstash which has a built-in parser for Avro docs where the data gets parsed in whatever way you specify and then is indexed into ElasticSearch. Once indexed Kibana which is the frontend will offer all sorts of Analysis and Data visualization tools. Along with other options for either more detailed analysis. As I say this will require a bit of time to get set up but once done it is very flexible and will also offer remote options for servers sending data and for people wanting to access the data. It may all be overkill though for your use case.

Opr

[ComradeCollie]

If the infection criteria we've been fed since day 1 is true (15 min at <2m), and as far as I know they haven't revised it yet,

Was there ever any indication of where this guidance came from. If you told people 'round here you had a 5% longer than average cock, people would ask for the peer reviewed paper your basing that figure on. Just haven't been able to find any info on it.
Germany have banned meetings of more than 2 people, and generally they tend to obey their rules even if they seem extreme.

[Tar.Aldarion]

Was there ever any indication of where this guidance came from. If you told people 'round here you had a 5% longer than average cock, people would ask for the peer reviewed paper your basing that figure on. Just haven't been able to find any info on it.
Germany have banned meetings of more than 2 people, and generally they tend to obey their rules even if they seem extreme.

Detailed in the contact tracing guidance

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casedefinitions/

->

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/guidance/contacttracingguidance/

Close contact definition
HCWs (excluding laboratory workers) who:
 have a cumulative unprotected exposure during one work shift (i.e. any breach or
omission of gloves, a gown, eye or respiratory protection) for more than 15 minutes
face-to-face (< 1 meters distance) to a case
OR
 have any unprotected exposure of their eyes or mouth or mucus membranes, to the
bodily fluids (mainly respiratory secretions e.g. coughing, but also includes blood, stools,
vomit, and urine) of the case.
OR
 have any unprotected exposure (i.e. any breach in gloves, gown, eye or respiratory
protection) while present in the same room when an aerosol generating procedure* is
undertaken on the case.
Any HCW who meets the above criteria, will be considered a Close Contact 14 days after this
contact.

[ComradeCollie]

Bojo to address the nation at 20.30.

[ComradeCollie]

Detailed in the contact tracing guidance

I've only scanned those articles. Haven't found the bit that stops me from suspecting that the numbers were extracted from someones sphincter.

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[Charlie Sheen]

Bojo to address the nation at 20.30.

Probably to blame the public for not listening to his advice to social distance/isolate

[ArmaniJeans]

SPOILER

This the wine yizzer on about? Is very nice even if it's not the one. Has the nose of a cheap wine but then a fucking fantastic finish. Have definitely paid 8x the price for similar quality.

Yes, that's exactly the one I meant. A €4.99 steal.

[Bozzer]

Thank you guys. Did convert to json and couldn't quite work out what to do then. It seemed to end up as a json of jsons - like a dict of dict if you know what I mean.

Might have a look at the longer Opr thing. Thank you. But as its a one-off, will try to either work out the json or see if I can find a more understandable python parser for avros.

Try pandavro https://github.com/ynqa/pandavro

df = pdx.from_avro(filepath)

Very straightforward

[BetKings,ie]

Curious to know which Irish person owns and operates this?. Is this a franchise of Nigerian owned Betking?.

No not a franchise of Betking, former owner and operator of Irish Eyes Poker ☘

[rounders123]

No not a franchise of Betking, former owner and operator of Irish Eyes Poker ☘

Ah right, thanks.

[ComradeCollie]

Boom. UK lockdown.

[LuckyLloyd]

Full lockdown in the U.K. for three weeks.

Time for us to do the same is overdue.

[Opr]

Might have a look at the longer Opr thing. Thank you. But as its a one-off, will try to either work out the json or see if I can find a more understandable python parser for avros.

If you just want to read the documents then I wouldn't go near my suggestion. I am sure there are easy enough ways to parse the data for that use case which others suggested. What you will end up with the ELK solution is a fully searchable database of the documents indexed upon which you can search and do data analysis/visualisations.

Opr

[newbie2]

We have to be going into lock down now

[dobby]

Bloody hell. Wasnt expecting that tbh. Some change around in such a short space of time from them. 3 week lockdown

[CHDad]

It's the closest thing to lockdown.

[SatNav]

Chanel coming home in a few days so decided to have a little fun, she must have panicked a little when she text her sister

[Solksjaer!]

That's gonna scupper the herd immunity malarkey.