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Keane & Trytime's Lock of the Week

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    Yeah, but how do the bookies know what you're doing so they shut you down? I presume they're only seeing one side of the arb

    Comment


      Originally posted by KK82 View Post
      Yeah, but how do the bookies know what you're doing so they shut you down? I presume they're only seeing one side of the arb
      Yeah but they've access to oddschecker too, if they see a winning customer consistently getting involved in potentially arby markets they can limit or close.
      Profit before people.

      Comment


        Ok, cool.. But could you not get your account shut down anyway by constantly taking the value side of an arb because they don't know if you're backing the other side with another bookie or not?

        Sorry to derail thread, Keane.

        Comment


          Not a bother, work away.

          Comment


            +14.5 units for our last ever Arb bet

            Current Bank: 506 units
            At Risk: 32.5 units

            Comment


              OK heres my latest update

              Wales v Australia

              Won Aus -3 @10/11 bet 5 units

              Won Wales +13 @ 4/1 bet 2 units (live bet made on 365 during the game)

              Total profit from game ~13 units

              Note that my either side bet for Munster ospreys http://bit.ly/igoestothemother didnt come in so down ~ 0.5 units there

              Current Bank: 524 units
              At Risk: 27.5 units
              Last edited by trytime; 03-12-11, 21:59.

              Comment


                Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                Yeah but they've access to oddschecker too, if they see a winning customer consistently getting involved in potentially arby markets they can limit or close.
                Oddschecker and presumably all the arbing programs too. I'm arbing away for the last week, making good money but wondering do I really want all my accounts shut as a result? Hmm decisions. I might have to be selective at least, no more Korean womens basketball bets on accounts I want to hang onto me thinks!

                Comment


                  Ok for Sundays Game of Sarries at home to Irish I'm liking Irish to cover +10 @10/11 on PP

                  Irish have been pretty resilient in the last few weeks in the HCup and last week against wasps where they won. In those games FB Tom Homer has been kicking really well for them and has been keeping them in the hunt despite them losing.

                  Homer starts again tomorrow and will no doubt be kicking. OH Bowden is back for them and captains the side. Another change is at No 8 Halaufia who will bring good strength there. Of course other notables for Irish are Topsy Ojo whos defence can be lacking at times but has pace to burn and is always looking for the intercept. Nick Kennedy is always a nuisance in the lineout and Jon Smit may be in trouble with his throwing.

                  However what makes me even more confident on this is the Sarries side that is facing them. Charlie Hodgson out, although in fairness Farrell is a good kicker and will convert points. Strettle in on the bench which may be deliberate for next weeks HCup games. But clearly the biggest absence is Berger in the back row. One of the stand out players for Namibia in the WC and played excellently in recent weeks despite Sarries results. This will hurt Sarries not having him in the squad for this game
                  I do expect Sarries to be on top at the Scrum but young Corbisiero V Neito will be interesting to watch
                  London Irish look to be set to exit HCup which means it will prob not play as much of a factor looking forward to next weekend in terms of minding / resting players.

                  As for Sarries they still have high hopes to come out of their pool in the HCup and explains some of the selections.
                  London Irish Defence has been good in recent weeks and are a good team to stay in the hunt for a losing bonus if worst comes to worst.

                  I have 4 units on this +10 on PP @ 10/11

                  Saracens
                  SPOILER
                  15 Alex Goode
                  14 Joe Maddock
                  13 Chris Wyles
                  12 Adam Powell
                  11 James Short
                  10 Owen Farrell
                  9 Ben Spencer
                  1 Matt Stevens
                  2 John Smit
                  3 Carlos Nieto
                  4 Steve Borthwick ©
                  5 Mouritz Botha
                  6 Jackson Wray
                  7 Andy Saull
                  8 Ernst Joubert

                  16 Jamie George
                  17 Rhys Gill
                  18 Petrus du Plessis
                  19 George Kruis
                  20 Kelly Brown
                  21 Luke Baldwin
                  22 Duncan Taylor
                  23 David Strettle



                  London Irish:
                  SPOILER
                  15 Tom Homer, 14 Topsy Ojo, 13 Joe Ansbro, 12 Jonathan Spratt, 11 Adam Thompstone, 10 Dan Bowden (Captain), 9 Paul Hodgson, 8 Chris Hala'ufia 7 Jamie Gibson, 6 Declan Danaher, 5 Matt Garvey, 4 Nick Kennedy, 3 Paulica Ion, 2 James Buckland, 1 Alex Corbisiero.
                  Replacements: 16 David Paice, 17 Clarke Dermody, 18 Faan Rautenbach, 19 Bryn Evans, 20 Ofisa Treviranus, 21 Guy Armitage, 22 Adrian Jarvis, 23 Darren Allinson


                  Current Bank: 520 units
                  At Risk: 31.5 units

                  Comment


                    I like this bet because I revel at the prospect of cheering on a man whose first name is Topsy.

                    Comment


                      OK Irish bet came in even in spite of Tom Homer getting another dose of tonsilitis at half time. Irish dominated possession and territory for most of the game. Flawless boot of Farrell won it for Sarries. Irish scored only try of the game.

                      http://www.irishpokerboards.com/foru...&postcount=188

                      Current Bank: 528 units
                      At Risk: 27.5 units

                      Comment


                        Stolen from elsewhere for an interest stuck five units on @ 12/5 with B365:

                        Genk are 11/5 with Bwin for the corner match bet..Huge price IMO.

                        Genk are pretty strong for corners at home. They drew Corner match bet with both Valencia and Chelsea at home and won the CMB away in Leverkusen.
                        In CL Leverksuen won CMB in Valencia but lost it at Chelsea. Leverkusen have also have a terrible corner rate away from home in Bundesliga, averaging under 3 per game and lost 7/8 CMBs this season.



                        Current Bank: 523 units
                        At Risk: 32.5 units
                        Last edited by Keane; 06-12-11, 16:14.

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by trytime View Post
                          Saw on the RSS just announced within the last 30 mins that Scarlets v Munster fixture will be reffed by Poite. This is bad news for Munster as he has always been rough and heavily penalises and clearly disapproves of the munster approach at rucktime.

                          Therefore Munster can pretty much write off a win in Parc Y Scarlets . Assuming that Munster still win in Thomond these two games will cancel each other out.

                          Now considering that Munster will struggle to get any points in the Gardens against NH even if NH are going to be out of the competition as they are always motivated to beat Munster (and Amlin should be an option for them)
                          - the fact that scarlets got 5 point bonus win from there. That really means that Scarlets are in the driving seat for that fixture and could make huge gains on Munster.

                          The biggest obstacle for Scarlets will probably be Castres away as they will need to pull some points from there. Since this will also be the last fixture of the group for both teams the French are a lot more likely to field a really weak team as by then they will be out of the competition completely

                          All in all it looks to be a good future for Scarlets here.

                          I checked oddscheker and Scarlets are 9/4 to win the group on totesport. I put 5 units on this as i think its great value.

                          -note : ive also added 5 more units to BR

                          Initial Bank: 388 units
                          Current Bank: 453 units
                          At Risk: 18 units
                          Profit/Loss: 75 units
                          this is looking like real value now,with the news that howlett is out for the season,earls not due back till next week,and zebo was injured yesterday at training,tho he still might make it for next weekends game,he is little lightweight for a game of this nature.
                          scarlets on the other hand welcome their wales players back for the game,throw in poite as ref and it looks to me anyhows that the edge is with scarlets in a big way!
                          Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                          Comment


                            Howlett's injury could actually prove useful, as it means that Munster are so blunted in the backline that they'll just aim to play 10 man rugby.

                            With ROG at helm, that's not a bad idea at all.

                            Scarlets' pack isn't overly useful, and Munster are going to play the whole game against them and them alone imo.

                            Scarlets' backline is the danger though.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by Keane View Post
                              Stolen from elsewhere for an interest stuck five units on @ 12/5 with B365:

                              Genk are 11/5 with Bwin for the corner match bet..Huge price IMO.

                              Genk are pretty strong for corners at home. They drew Corner match bet with both Valencia and Chelsea at home and won the CMB away in Leverkusen.
                              In CL Leverksuen won CMB in Valencia but lost it at Chelsea. Leverkusen have also have a terrible corner rate away from home in Bundesliga, averaging under 3 per game and lost 7/8 CMBs this season.



                              Current Bank: 523 units
                              At Risk: 32.5 units
                              This was a loser, but happily managed to turn a profit last night regardless as below:

                              Originally posted by Keane View Post
                              I got a text from a number I don't have saved to my phone just after the off about Marseille being huge value at 4/1. Text back asking who it was but no reply, obv backed them anyway @ 9/2, FML'd when they went 2-0 down, then almost knocked over a table in Dicey's fistpumping when I checked the result several hours later
                              Had five units on that, for a 22.5 unit profit.

                              Also had Chelsea to win just based on a feeling that Chelsea are a little undervalued at the moment. 5 units @ 3/4 = 3.5 units profit (rounded down obv).

                              Lastly, I'm sure I had the overs in Chelsea vs Valencia for 5 units somewhere based on:

                              Originally posted by burkeyoa View Post
                              Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                              Chelsea Valencia both to score tonight. Also Saldado 12/5 anytime looks tasty.
                              Havta agree with this. If chelsea defend like they did against newcastle then valencia will surely score and when they score it is usually soldado. So looks a solid bet.
                              But I can't find where I placed the bet so I'll leave it out of the reckoning for the moment

                              26 unit profit therefore, with a little more probably pending assuming I didn't somehow neglect to place that overs bet...

                              Current Bank: 549 units
                              At Risk: 32.5 units

                              Comment


                                Bankroll Update

                                Right, Alan did an audit of what we've put in so far and what we've got, and it works out as follows:

                                Initial Bank: 266.5 units
                                Current Bank: 575.5 units
                                Profit: 309 units

                                At Risk: 10 units

                                Bets In Play:
                                Scarlets to win HEC Group (5 units @ 9/4)
                                Biarritz to win HEC Group (5 units @ 2/1)

                                Very healthy progress and we're pretty chuffed with it.

                                Comment


                                  Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                  I got a text from a number I don't have saved to my phone just after the off about Marseille being huge value at 4/1. Text back asking who it was but no reply, obv backed them anyway @ 9/2, FML'd when they went 2-0 down, then almost knocked over a table in Dicey's fistpumping when I checked the result several hours later
                                  Not exact same text as I sent mick nail but something along those lines, was in cinema(was literally going in when I text you) so couldn't reply and when I came out and saw results thought I'd leave it off. I didn't even see the 2-0, 2-3 sweat!!

                                  anyways heh , glad ya won
                                  Last edited by mdoug; 07-12-11, 18:20.
                                  Go big or go homeless.

                                  Comment


                                    Originally posted by mdoug View Post
                                    Not exact text mick nail but something along those lines, was in cinema(was literally going in when I text you) so couldn't reply and when I came out and saw results thought I'd leave it off. I didn't even see the 2-0, 2-3 sweat!!

                                    anyways heh , glad ya won
                                    Thanks for the text, dunno why I didn't have your number - was such a sweet moment when I saw the result

                                    Comment


                                      Ok, we're going to change up our unit structure to make it a bit easier to use with our BR.

                                      Initial Bank: 46 units
                                      Current Bank: 100 units
                                      Profit: 53.5 units

                                      At Risk: 1.5 units

                                      Bets In Play:
                                      Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                      Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)

                                      Our bets are going to range from 0.5 units for a slight fancy to 5 units for a max bet.

                                      Comment


                                        OK so for Scarlets V Munster on Sat we have Scarlets +1 for 4 units @ 10/11 on 365

                                        This game is not looking good for Munster. The news of Howlett during the week is a major blow as he has been stepping up in games when the rest of the team, the backline in particular, are struggling to create any purposeful plays. Zebo may yet make it to the starting lineup to replace him as he is battling an injury he picked up during the week. Even if he does play though it will be his first HCup cap and will be a big step up for him. But this Howlett blow only adds to Munsters problems with injuries. Earls may be back in a few weeks.

                                        Munster dont have a great record of travelling to wales(or away in general) and coming away with much in recent seasons.

                                        Scarlets on the other hand are on a rich vein of form and coming of age of players in scoring positions. Preistland has been a revelation at OH forcing Stephen Jones to the bench. George North is already looking world class on wing and Johnathan Davies is an excellent centre. Compare that to munsters backline which is still in an experimental phase with swapping of Barnes Mafi and Chambers to try and find a good combo. Chambers has performed the best of the three and may cause problems for Scarlets defence, but Munster have not shown great signs of running off players even if they do make good line breaks up the middle.

                                        If Munster want to win this game ROG will have to kick for position all day, however i find it hard to see this strategy working munsters lineout is not the powerhouse that it was a few seasons ago without flannerys throwing. Also if ROG does miss touch this scarlets backline could counter.

                                        Another important point is that Roman Poite is reffing. A ref whos clearly anti munster-style of play and makes no excuses for it. Hes going to punish Munster all day at the breakdown. BJ in the scrum may make him see some sense but Munsters pick and go game is going to be hurt by Poite. Basically Munster couldnt have got a worse ref for this game. If DOC starts i expect to hear the whistle quite a bit.

                                        I think when you factor in home advantage, Poite, and munsters injuries and lack of strategy its hard to see how Scarlets are not favourites by ~ 3 points.


                                        Initial Bank: 46 units
                                        Current Bank: 96 units
                                        Profit: 49.5 units

                                        At Risk: 5.5 units

                                        Bets In Play:
                                        Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                        Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)
                                        Scarlets+1 v Munster (4 units @10/11)
                                        Last edited by trytime; 08-12-11, 16:50.

                                        Comment


                                          3 units on Leinster -4 @ 10/11 with Victor Chandler - wanted to get it on in case the line moved.

                                          I'll let Alan write it up later.

                                          Comment


                                            Saw this elsewhere, going to have two units on it:


                                            Most other matches are overshawdowed but what is the mother of all cardfests. El SuperClassico Real Madrid vs Barcelona.

                                            The Ref is David Fernandez Borbalan and his stats are not overly harsh but he did ref the Super Cup match at the start of the season which saw 3 red cards and 9 yellows

                                            Some bookies have their prices up early and most are Evens for over 80 points. However our good pals at victor chandler are giving 5/6 for over 65 points. I am going to smash into this for starters and will see what else presents itself on match day regarding time of first card,player bookings, red cards etc as options are slim on these at the minute

                                            Comment


                                              Just to update the Bankroll:

                                              Initial Bank: 46 units
                                              Current Bank: 91 units
                                              Profit: 44.5 units

                                              At Risk: 10.5 units

                                              Bets In Play:
                                              Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                              Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)
                                              Scarlets +1 vs Munster (4 units @10/11)
                                              Leinster -4 vs Bath (3 units @ 10/11)
                                              Over 65 bookings points Real Madrid vs Barcelona (2 units @ 5/6)

                                              Comment


                                                Stuck a unit on Stoke to beat Spurs @11/4 after seeing Spurs badly struggle to defend Stoke's first throw after a minute or so.

                                                EDIT: Layed this off for stakeback, freerolling for ~2.5 units if Stoke win.
                                                Last edited by Keane; 11-12-11, 16:40.

                                                Comment


                                                  Scarlets +1 vs Munster (4 units @10/11) - loss
                                                  Leinster -4 vs Bath (3 units @ 10/11) - win, returns 5.7 units
                                                  Over 65 bookings points Real Madrid vs Barcelona (2 units @ 5/6) - win returns 3.6 units

                                                  Lost one unit on a soccer bet yesterday as well.

                                                  Initial Bank: 46 units
                                                  Current Bank: 99.3 units
                                                  Profit: 53.3 units

                                                  At Risk: 1.5 units

                                                  Bets In Play:
                                                  Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                  Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)
                                                  Last edited by Keane; 11-12-11, 18:45.

                                                  Comment


                                                    Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                    Stuck a unit on Stoke to beat Spurs @11/4 after seeing Spurs badly struggle to defend Stoke's first throw after a minute or so.

                                                    EDIT: Layed this off for stakeback, freerolling for ~2.5 units if Stoke win.
                                                    Ship ship.

                                                    Initial Bank: 46 units
                                                    Current Bank: 102 units
                                                    Profit: 56 units

                                                    At Risk: 1.5 units

                                                    Bets In Play:
                                                    Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                    Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)
                                                    Last edited by Keane; 11-12-11, 23:17.

                                                    Comment


                                                      Put half a unit on Napoli @20/21 becuase it looked like value compared to the 4/5 being offered in most places. Finished 1-1.

                                                      Initial Bank: 46 units
                                                      Current Bank: 101.5 units
                                                      Profit: 55.5 units

                                                      At Risk: 1.5 units

                                                      Bets In Play:
                                                      Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                      Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)
                                                      Last edited by Keane; 12-12-11, 10:43.

                                                      Comment


                                                        We're looking to maximize the value from Bet365's €50 matched bet offer so I've put the loot on over 2.5 goals @3/4, and will more than likely stick the other €50 on that in-running as well to double the odds to a juicy looking 6/4.

                                                        I've also added a unit to take advantage of Skybet's 3/1 about Oriel Romeu to be booked, which is a good deal longer than PP (5/2) and Betfair (19/10) so looks to be a little edge at least. With him being fairly inexperienced and considering he'll likely be sent out to man-mark David Silva it could be a tough evening for him (I'm assuming he gets the nod ahead of Mikel).

                                                        Skybet generously donated half a unit to the cause as well so I've put on 1.5 for the price of 1.

                                                        Initial Bank: 47 units
                                                        Current Bank: 95.8 units
                                                        Profit: 48.8 units

                                                        At Risk: 7.2 units

                                                        Bets In Play:
                                                        Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                        Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)
                                                        Chelsea vs Man City over 2.5 goals (4.3 units @ 3/4)
                                                        Oriel Romeu to be booked (1.4 units @ 3/1)

                                                        Comment


                                                          Yeah buddy.

                                                          Comment


                                                            Backed the unders for ~2 units after City got the early goal to ensure we got our stake back at the minimum, happily the third goal went in and our lad Romeu picked up his yellow as well for a good night for us again.

                                                            The first 4.3 units went on at 3/4 pre-game returning 7.525 units. The second 4.3 units went on at 8/11 just before City scored so that returns 7.42 units. The Romeu booking was 1.4 units at 3/1 which returns 5.6 units. That's 20.545 up, minus the 2.2 units I laid off for a total upside of 8.4 units.

                                                            Initial Bank: 47 units
                                                            Current Bank: 114.145 units
                                                            Profit: 67.145 units

                                                            At Risk: 1.5 units

                                                            Bets In Play:
                                                            Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                            Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)
                                                            Last edited by Keane; 12-12-11, 23:00.

                                                            Comment


                                                              Had a couple of soccer bets on in Europa League last night, two winners two losers. Made a bit of a stones of the bet sizes because I forgot about Betfair being in dollars so I'll just give totals (I meant to back Schalke which would have been a nice boost but obv forgot to click a confirm button somewhere again )

                                                              Total Staked = 3.546086956521739 units
                                                              Total Returned = 3.492173913043478 units
                                                              Overall +/- = -0.053913043478261

                                                              I'm calling that a push

                                                              Initial Bank: 47 units
                                                              Current Bank: 114.1 units
                                                              Profit: 67.1 units

                                                              At Risk: 1.5 units

                                                              Bets In Play:
                                                              Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                              Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)

                                                              Comment


                                                                Have a unit on Bayonne +5 in the Challenge Cup just about to start FWIW.

                                                                Comment


                                                                  Had a few Europa League bets on again tonight, booked a 6.6 point win.

                                                                  Initial Bank: 47 units
                                                                  Current Bank: 119.7 units
                                                                  Profit: 72.7 units

                                                                  At Risk: 2.5 units

                                                                  Bets In Play:
                                                                  Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                                  Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)
                                                                  Bayonne +5 vs Wasps ECC (1 unit @ 10/11)

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    Bayonne +5 vs Wasps ECC (1 unit @ 10/11) - loser.

                                                                    Still, up ~5.5 points for the night, how bad.

                                                                    Initial Bank: 47 units
                                                                    Current Bank: 119.7 units
                                                                    Profit: 72.7 units

                                                                    At Risk: 1.5 units

                                                                    Bets In Play:
                                                                    Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                                    Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      Rugby for weekend Ospreys v Sarries +5 (4.5 units @10/11) on betfred
                                                                      Added 5.5 units to initial bank
                                                                      Initial Bank: 52 units
                                                                      Current Bank: 120.2 units
                                                                      Profit: 72.7 units

                                                                      At Risk: 6 units

                                                                      Bets In Play:
                                                                      Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                                      Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)
                                                                      Ospreys v Sarries +5 (4.5 units @10/11)
                                                                      Last edited by trytime; 16-12-11, 13:01.

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        Added another 3 units to the bank.

                                                                        Ospreys v Sarries +5 (4.5 units @10/11) - Winner, returning 8.6 units (4.1 profit).

                                                                        Lost 1.2 units on a couple of soccer bets as well, so up 2.9 units for the evening overall.

                                                                        Initial Bank: 55 units
                                                                        Current Bank: 130.6 units
                                                                        Profit: 80.1 units

                                                                        At Risk: 1.5 units

                                                                        Bets In Play:
                                                                        Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                                        Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          We've got 2 units on Glasgow Warriors +10 @10/11 against Montpellier tomorrow, and a unit on Leinster -15 vs Bath @10/11 as well. I'll let Alan do the write-ups tomorrow.

                                                                          1.75 units on a soccer bet as well.

                                                                          Initial Bank: 55 units
                                                                          Current Bank: 125.85 units
                                                                          Profit: 75.35 units

                                                                          At Risk: 6.25 units

                                                                          Bets In Play:
                                                                          Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                                          Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)
                                                                          Glasgow Warriors +10 vs Montpellier (2 units @ 10/11)
                                                                          Leinster -15 vs Bath (1 unit @ 10/11)
                                                                          Soccer Bet (1.75 units @ 13/8)

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            1.73 units on ulster -12.5 @EVENS as it was a risk free mobile bonus bet on betfair.

                                                                            Initial Bank: 55 units
                                                                            Current Bank: 124.12 units
                                                                            Profit: 73.62 units

                                                                            At Risk: 7.98 units

                                                                            Bets In Play:
                                                                            Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                                            Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)
                                                                            Glasgow Warriors +10 vs Montpellier (2 units @ 10/11)
                                                                            Leinster -15 vs Bath (1 unit @ 10/11)
                                                                            Soccer Bet (1.75 units @ 13/8)
                                                                            Ulster -12.5 v Aironi @ evens on BF

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              good bet

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                Soccer Bet (1.75 units @ 13/8) - loser, pretty unlucky tbf

                                                                                Glasgow Warriors +10 vs Montpellier (2 units @ 10/11) - winner, return 3.8 units (1.8 profit)
                                                                                Leinster -15 vs Bath (1 unit @ 10/11) - winner, return 1.9 units (0.9 profit)
                                                                                Ulster -12.5 v Aironi (1.74 unit @ evens) - winner, return 3.48 units (1.74 profit)

                                                                                Total returns 9.18 units, 2.69 units profit.

                                                                                Initial Bank: 55 units
                                                                                Current Bank: 133.3 units
                                                                                Profit: 78.3 units

                                                                                At Risk: 1.5 units

                                                                                Bets In Play:
                                                                                Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                                                Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  Added more to Initial Bank (9 units)

                                                                                  Initial Bank: 64 units
                                                                                  Current Bank: 142.3 units
                                                                                  Profit: 78.3 units

                                                                                  At Risk: 1.5 units

                                                                                  Bets In Play:
                                                                                  Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                                                  Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    Put a unit on over 2.5 goals in City - Arsenal game @1.77

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                                      Put a unit on over 2.5 goals in City - Arsenal game @1.77
                                                                                      Above lost somehow.

                                                                                      Initial Bank: 64 units
                                                                                      Current Bank: 141.3 units
                                                                                      Profit: 77.3 units

                                                                                      At Risk: 1.5 units

                                                                                      Bets In Play:
                                                                                      Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                                                      Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)
                                                                                      Last edited by Keane; 28-12-11, 23:32.

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        Lost 4 units on soccer bets.

                                                                                        Alan's started looking at Guinness Premiership rugby as well now, so hopefully that'll be another area we can profit in. My GAA work is starting to come together nicely as well so hopefully should be ready to go with that early in the New Yer.

                                                                                        Initial Bank: 64 units
                                                                                        Current Bank: 137.3 units
                                                                                        Profit: 73.3 units

                                                                                        At Risk: 1.5 units

                                                                                        Bets In Play:
                                                                                        Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                                                        Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)
                                                                                        Last edited by Keane; 28-12-11, 23:33.

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          Lost 1.2 units over a bunch of soccer bets.

                                                                                          Initial Bank: 64 units
                                                                                          Current Bank: 136.1 units
                                                                                          Profit: 72.1 units

                                                                                          At Risk: 1.5 units

                                                                                          Bets In Play:
                                                                                          Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                                                          Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)
                                                                                          Last edited by Keane; 28-12-11, 23:33.

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            OK on the 27th Quins are at Home to Sarries in the Premiership. Ive taken a serious look at this as Quins are +2 right now on PP @10/11

                                                                                            Right from the get go im thinking this is value off the back of the win from last weekend against Toulouse. It looks like they haven't picked up any injuries from last weekend. Quins are also boosted by the return of prop Joe Marler and in the BR Maurie Fa'asavalu from knocks in recent weeks. Granted these teams are pretty evenly matched. Evans and Farrell (who will start centre) probably cancel each other out with the kicking(although Evans appears slightly better with the boot in recent weeks) . Care is a more dangerous SH than Spencer(who is solid but still inexperienced) or Stringer who is limited and wont be breaking the line. Hodgson at 10 for Sarries can be a little bit weak defensively and Quins could target his channel.

                                                                                            Sarries have a better lineout esp when Brits is hooker, Smit is a weaker thrower. Quins have players like Brown at FB is definitely on rich form after last weeks display and will be looking to break. I expect Monye to start on the wing this weekend too. I think there will not be much between them in the scrums. Sarries will prob have a slight edge at the breakdown with Burger and Joubert and Brown vs Easter Robshaw and Skinner(who faces a disciplinary hearing tomorrow for unsporting behaviour; Fa'asavalu can fill if there is a banto Skinner) Home advantage is the big swinger for this fixture and while its on in the same city it probably wont be as much of an advantage but with 70,000 expected to fill Twickers the atmosphere could be massive.

                                                                                            Note : A big factor that could have affected the game was the rest period that the England Elite Squad get over the christmas period. This would no doubt have affected the line if both teams top players were gone. However according to multiple sources
                                                                                            England’s elite player squad face a busy Christmas schedule after the Rugby Football Union waived their customary rest period following a spate of retirements and injuries.

                                                                                            the RFU wants these players to continue to play over the Christmas period due to injuries and retirements by the likes of Wilkinson Moody etc....

                                                                                            I'm putting max bet 5 units on this Quins +2 @10/11.
                                                                                            Initial Bank: 64 units
                                                                                            Current Bank: 131.1 units
                                                                                            Profit: 67.1 units

                                                                                            At Risk: 6.5 units

                                                                                            Bets In Play:
                                                                                            Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                                                            Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)
                                                                                            Quins +2 vs Sarries in Prem (5 units @ 10/11)
                                                                                            Last edited by Keane; 28-12-11, 23:33.

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              Stabbing 1 unit on Barnes to score a try anytime during the munster match tomorrow v connacht. PP has best odds at 16/5 all the other sites have him at ~ 2/1

                                                                                              Initial Bank: 64 units
                                                                                              Current Bank: 130.1 units
                                                                                              Profit: 66.1 units

                                                                                              At Risk: 7.5 units

                                                                                              Bets In Play:
                                                                                              Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                                                              Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)
                                                                                              Quins +2 vs Sarries in Prem (5 units @ 10/11)
                                                                                              Barnes to score a try anytime Munster V Connacht (1 unit @ 16/5)
                                                                                              Last edited by Keane; 28-12-11, 23:34.

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                [QUOTE=trytime;461413]OK on the 27th Quins are at Home to Sarries in the Premiership. Ive taken a serious look at this as Quins are +2 right now on PP @10/11

                                                                                                Right from the get go im thinking this is value off the back of the win from last weekend against Toulouse. It looks like they haven't picked up any injuries from last weekend. Quins are also boosted by the return of prop Joe Marler and in the BR Maurie Fa'asavalu from knocks in recent weeks. Granted these teams are pretty evenly matched. Evans and Farrell (who will start centre) probably cancel each other out with the kicking(although Evans appears slightly better with the boot in recent weeks) . Care is a more dangerous SH than Spencer(who is solid but still inexperienced) or Stringer who is limited and wont be breaking the line. Hodgson at 10 for Sarries can be a little bit weak defensively and Quins could target his channel.

                                                                                                Sarries have a better lineout esp when Brits is hooker, Smit is a weaker thrower. Quins have players like Brown at FB is definitely on rich form after last weeks display and will be looking to break. I expect Monye to start on the wing this weekend too. I think there will not be much between them in the scrums. Sarries will prob have a slight edge at the breakdown with Burger and Joubert and Brown vs Easter Robshaw and Skinner(who faces a disciplinary hearing tomorrow for unsporting behaviour; Fa'asavalu can fill if there is a banto Skinner) Home advantage is the big swinger for this fixture and while its on in the same city it probably wont be as much of an advantage but with 70,000 expected to fill Twickers the atmosphere could be massive.

                                                                                                Note : A big factor that could have affected the game was the rest period that the England Elite Squad get over the christmas period. This would no doubt have affected the line if both teams top players were gone. However according to multiple sources
                                                                                                England’s elite player squad face a busy Christmas schedule after the Rugby Football Union waived their customary rest period following a spate of retirements and injuries.

                                                                                                the RFU wants these players to continue to play over the Christmas period due to injuries and retirements by the likes of Wilkinson Moody etc....

                                                                                                I'm putting max bet 5 units on this Quins +2 @10/11.
                                                                                                Initial Bank: 64 units
                                                                                                Current Bank: 131.1 units
                                                                                                Profit: 61.1 units

                                                                                                At Risk: 6.5 units

                                                                                                Bets In Play:
                                                                                                Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                                                                Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)
                                                                                                Quins +2 vs Sarries in Prem (5 units @ 10/11)

                                                                                                top class post sir,very good reasoning. i,ve just gone for mike brown in the anytime tryscorer market,6 trys from 10 games and looks priced a little high with hills @ 9/2!
                                                                                                line ups http://www.premiershiprugby.com/prem...w&fixid=158056
                                                                                                Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  Quins have since shortened to the point where they're now favourites for the game, so +2 looks a great get.

                                                                                                  Over the last few weeks we've seen that it's vital to do your rugby research early in the week as some of the bookmakers come out with bizarro lines that tighten up as the week progresses. This is another good example.

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                    We're down a total of 8.03 units over the last few days. The extra 2.03 over and above the rugby was on some soccer bets we had. I've also got three units on a long term bet that I'll post about at a later date.

                                                                                                    Initial Bank: 64 units
                                                                                                    Current Bank: 125.07 units
                                                                                                    Profit: 61.07 units

                                                                                                    At Risk: 4.5 units

                                                                                                    Bets In Play:
                                                                                                    Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                                                                    Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)
                                                                                                    In-running bet (3 units @ 16/11)

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                      Made 1.1 units on a darts bet.

                                                                                                      Initial Bank: 64 units
                                                                                                      Current Bank: 126.17 units
                                                                                                      Profit: 62.17 units

                                                                                                      At Risk: 4.5 units

                                                                                                      Bets In Play:
                                                                                                      Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                                                                      Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)
                                                                                                      In-running bet (3 units @ 16/11)

                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                        Had three units on Liverpool to beat Newcastle @ 4/7 for 1.71 units profit.
                                                                                                        Had one unit on Ulster -5 vs Munster @ 10/11 for 0.9 units profit.
                                                                                                        Had two other soccer bets that amounted to a loss of half a unit.

                                                                                                        Altogether profit of 2.1 units.

                                                                                                        Initial Bank: 64 units
                                                                                                        Current Bank: 128.3 units
                                                                                                        Profit: 64.3 units

                                                                                                        At Risk: 4.5 units

                                                                                                        Bets In Play:
                                                                                                        Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                                                                        Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)
                                                                                                        In-running bet (3 units @ 16/11)

                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                          Made another 1.2 units on Lewis in the darts.

                                                                                                          Initial Bank: 64 units
                                                                                                          Current Bank: 129.5 units
                                                                                                          Profit: 65.5 units

                                                                                                          At Risk: 4.5 units

                                                                                                          Bets In Play:
                                                                                                          Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                                                                          Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)
                                                                                                          In-running bet (3 units @ 16/11)

                                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                                            We've had a bit of a problem where we max bet City at 1.93 early yesterday morning before the B365 €50 matched in-running bet offer got publicised.

                                                                                                            As we've said before, BRM isn't a massive concern (outside of developing good habits) for us as we can top up by increments if necessary, so we decided we'd maximise the value by taking advantage of the B365 offer as well.

                                                                                                            That leaves us with essentially 4.34 units on a City win @B365's improved odds of 2.67, plus 5 units at the original Betfair price of 1.93.

                                                                                                            Let's go City

                                                                                                            Initial Bank: 64 units
                                                                                                            Current Bank: 120.16 units
                                                                                                            Profit: 56.16 units

                                                                                                            At Risk: 4.5 units

                                                                                                            Bets In Play:
                                                                                                            Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                                                                            Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)
                                                                                                            In-running bet (3 units @ 16/11)
                                                                                                            Man City to beat Liverpool (4.34 units @ 2.67)
                                                                                                            Man City to beat Liverpool (5 units @ 1.93)
                                                                                                            Last edited by Keane; 03-01-12, 13:15.

                                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                                              What is the in running bet based on? Or is it deemed to be shrouded in mystery? 3 units @16/11
                                                                                                              ﴾͡๏̯͡๏﴿

                                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                                Originally posted by Micknail View Post
                                                                                                                What is the in running bet based on? Or is it deemed to be shrouded in mystery? 3 units @16/11
                                                                                                                Shrouded in mystery for a while alright I'm afraid

                                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                                  13.3 units profit from City, shippity ship

                                                                                                                  Initial Bank: 64 units
                                                                                                                  Current Bank: 142.8 units
                                                                                                                  Profit: 78.8 units

                                                                                                                  At Risk: 4.5 units

                                                                                                                  Bets In Play:
                                                                                                                  Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                                                                                  Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)
                                                                                                                  In-running bet (3 units @ 16/11)
                                                                                                                  Last edited by Keane; 03-01-12, 22:12.

                                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                                    Made 2.4 units on Newcastle, actually backed them based on bogus team news on twitter and made a mess of laying it off on Betfair. Nice mistake to make, makes up for not clicking confirm on winning bets a couple of times.

                                                                                                                    Initial Bank: 64 units
                                                                                                                    Current Bank: 145.2 units
                                                                                                                    Profit: 81.2 units

                                                                                                                    At Risk: 4.5 units

                                                                                                                    Bets In Play:
                                                                                                                    Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                                                                                    Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)
                                                                                                                    In-running bet (3 units @ 16/11)

                                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                                      Change up time - we've decided to invest more since we're going well so out with the old:

                                                                                                                      Initial Bank: 64 units
                                                                                                                      Current Bank: 145.2 units
                                                                                                                      Profit: 81.2 units

                                                                                                                      At Risk: 4.5 units

                                                                                                                      Bets In Play:
                                                                                                                      Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 9/4)
                                                                                                                      Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.75 units @ 2/1)
                                                                                                                      In-running bet (3 units @ 16/11)
                                                                                                                      In with the new:

                                                                                                                      Initial Bank: 62 units
                                                                                                                      Current Bank: 93 units
                                                                                                                      Profit: 31 units

                                                                                                                      At Risk: 2 units

                                                                                                                      Bets In Play:
                                                                                                                      Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 9/4)
                                                                                                                      Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 2/1)
                                                                                                                      In-running bet (1.4 units @ 16/11)

                                                                                                                      I'll be adding the seven missing units to round our current bankroll to 100 when I get paid

                                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                                        Tonight Ulster travel to Edinburgh for the last Pro 12 game before HCup resumes next weekend. Both teams have named strong sides for this but on paper ulster have the better team.

                                                                                                                        Ulsters pack is the stronger of the two with Afoa at tighthead motm last week. Return of Fezzer is obv huge with Wanneburg and Henry making up the BR. Tuohy and Muller make up a good second row against Cox and Lozada. Fords throwing will prob edge out on Bests throwing but theres little in it.

                                                                                                                        Both teams are good in the backs but Ulsters Terblanche still has game along with bags of experience , same can be said for Patterson. A big note here is that Patterson is no longer the placekicker for Edinburgh as Godman and Laidlaw have the duties these days. Godman can be awful with the boot. I think Uslter have a better half back combination with both Humphries and Pienaar on good form.Tim Visser on the wing will be matched by Trimble. All in all ulster are the better side on paper by a try and i expected to see them at -2 ish even for the away fixture

                                                                                                                        We have them @+3 for 3 units @10/11


                                                                                                                        Match Lineup
                                                                                                                        Edinburgh: 15 Chris Paterson, 14 Tom Brown, 13 Nick De Luca, 12 James King, 11 Tim Visser, 10 Phil Godman, 9 Greig Laidlaw (c) 8 Netani Talei, 7 Roddy Grant, 6 Stuart McInally, 5 Esteban Lozada, 4 Sean Cox, 3 Geoff Cross, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Allan Jacobsen.
                                                                                                                        Replacements: 16 Alun Walker, 17 Kyle Traynor, 18 Jack Gilding, 19 Grant Gilchrist, 20 Alan MacDonald, 21 Chris Leck, 22 Matt Scott, 23 Jim Thompson.

                                                                                                                        Ulster: 15 Stefan Terblanche, 14 Andrew Trimble, 13 Darren Cave, 12 Ian Whitten, 11 Craig Gilroy, 10 Ian Humphreys, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Pedrie Wannenburg, 7 Chris Henry, 6 Stephen Ferris, 5 Dan Tuohy, 4 Johann Muller (capt), 3 John Afoa, 2 Rory Best, 1 Tom Court.
                                                                                                                        Replacements: 16 Andi Kyriacou, 17 Callum Black, 18 Adam Macklin, 19 Lewis Stevenson, 20 Willie Faloon, 21 Paul Marshall, 22 Paddy Wallace, 23 Adam D'Arcy

                                                                                                                        Referee: George Clancy

                                                                                                                        Initial Bank: 62 units
                                                                                                                        Current Bank: 90 units
                                                                                                                        Profit: 28 units

                                                                                                                        At Risk: 5 units

                                                                                                                        Bets In Play:
                                                                                                                        Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 9/4)
                                                                                                                        Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 2/1)
                                                                                                                        In-running bet (1.4 units @ 16/11)
                                                                                                                        Ulster+3 V Edinburgh (3 units @ 10/11)
                                                                                                                        Last edited by trytime; 06-01-12, 14:39.

                                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                                          We've got three units on Northampton -6 and four units on Leinster -0 as well. We've been studying these fixtures for the last few hours and they're both strongly +ev.

                                                                                                                          Initial Bank: 62 units
                                                                                                                          Current Bank: 83 units
                                                                                                                          Profit: 21 units

                                                                                                                          At Risk: 12 units

                                                                                                                          Bets In Play:
                                                                                                                          Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 9/4)
                                                                                                                          Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 2/1)
                                                                                                                          In-running bet (1.4 units @ 16/11)
                                                                                                                          Ulster +3 vs Edinburgh (3 units @ 10/11)
                                                                                                                          Northampton -6 vs Harlequins (3 units @ 10/11)
                                                                                                                          Leinster -0 vs Cardiff Blues (4 units @ 10/11)

                                                                                                                          Comment

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