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    Longshot Saturday

    Going to stick some of my picks from my own site here mainly to see if i can pick only 1 horse each Saturday and get the right one of my picks (i often pick 4-5 on a Saturday or big race day)

    Looking at Saturdays racing I'm patiently waiting for NRNB for what looks a big overprice.

    All mine are big prices so understanding is needed that there can be many losers in a row before dropping a bomb..
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    #2
    Ascot Silver Cup Ante-Post


    I watched the Hennessy and while it was on I was taken with the run of The Giant Bolster . He got tired in the end but had jumped and ran with great purpose up to the 2nd last. I think he has a great chance in this of this mark. It’s a much lesser race than the Hennessey and he was always a better horse on better ground and after a run. The forecast is for dry weather until Saturday in the area. If he improves at all from that run he will be right in the firing line here and 25/1 is huge. He was relatively poor last year but I think that run looked like the horse of previous years. It looks to me like he will shorten considerably in price so I can’t afford to wait until NRNB which was my original plan. With that in mind ill suggest a 1pt EW bet now and if the price holds after NRNB we'll have another 1pt EW then. I don’t fancy a lot else in the race at the prices


    1 Point ew 25/1 Generally
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      #3
      Tyestes Chase Gowran Thursday

      I’ve been waiting for this race and my certain pick here for a while. I think if My Murphy repeats last year run of the same mark in the same conditions he has to go very close here. He has more or less the exact same preparation as last time and the form of last year race is stellar to say the least. He was 19 length’s clear of the rest just 8 lengths behind Djakadam when only in receipt of 6 lbs. the 3rd and 4th Goonyella and Gallant Oscar have surly only added to the form line after that race and surly the trainer has this as his target for this year. 20/1 is way too big and 1m only going 1pt EW here as its antepost, if that price stays around until there is NRNB will be adding another 1pt EW.

      1 PT EW 20/1 Bet365/Lads/sporting/Stan
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        #4
        Originally posted by aidankk View Post
        Tyestes Chase Gowran Thursday

        I’ve been waiting for this race and my certain pick here for a while. I think if My Murphy repeats last year run of the same mark in the same conditions he has to go very close here. He has more or less the exact same preparation as last time and the form of last year race is stellar to say the least. He was 19 length’s clear of the rest just 8 lengths behind Djakadam when only in receipt of 6 lbs. the 3rd and 4th Goonyella and Gallant Oscar have surly only added to the form line after that race and surly the trainer has this as his target for this year. 20/1 is way too big and 1m only going 1pt EW here as its antepost, if that price stays around until there is NRNB will be adding another 1pt EW.

        1 PT EW 20/1 Bet365/Lads/sporting/Stan

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          #5
          Nice

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            #6
            Absolute legend!! I thank you but my liver not so much 😂😂

            Sent from my SM-A300FU using Tapatalk

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              #7
              Legend, TY!!

              Comment


                #8
                You spelled thyestes wrong.

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                  #9
                  Originally posted by rounders123 View Post
                  You spelled thyestes wrong.
                  That's not a surprise, spelling not a strong point, especially with words that spell check doesn't know.
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                    #10
                    Champion Hurdle


                    I’ve been looking at this horse for a while now for this race, and although almost everything else has been falling apart he has been sitting in his box without a run. Obviously Faugheen looks unbeatable in this so we’ll have to look elsewhere for the value and I’ve settled pretty strongly on My Tent or Yours. Ok he’s been off the track for what seems an eternity but he is the one horse with huge potential left to oppose the front 3 in the market. He was of course 2nd to Jezki in 2014 and in that race was clear of both The New One and Hurricane Fly. That form reads very well compared to most of this field. He is due to have a racecourse gallop next week and a possible run in the Kingwell hurdle shortly. My feeling is that NRNB is huge here, as no matter what he does in that race he will not go off anywhere near 25/1 on the day and there may well be only 6-8 runners in the race.


                    He just ticks too many boxes not to be interesting at that price. He has 2 top class performance’s at the festival and has the better of the likes of The New One who is a lot shorter in the betting . If he regains anything like his old form he would have a small chance of winning but looks a huge favourite to place at least and more critically a massive chance to win the with/out Faugheen race

                    In particular the 16/1 w/o Faugheen available in totesport & Betfred looks a really huge price if you can just image that race with an unproven horse like Idendity Thief at 4/1.The failure of Peace and Co today just adds to the value. He is about a 6-8/1 shot for that race for second in my book (if he shows up) and value like that can’t be missed.


                    This bet can only really go two ways. He either bombs out and more than likely won’t go to the race and you get your money back or We’ll be sitting pretty in a 6-8 Horse race, getting 3 places about a horse with great festival form at 25/1 and on a possible winner of the race for 2nd at a huge looking 16/1. My guess if he shows up he will go off at most 12/1 to win.


                    There are a few way's to structure the bet and many may well just go for a big EW bet at the 25/1, but I like tilting the bet towards a big payout of successful and I've gone with 2 pts win as well in the w/o race as this has the biggest margin on the real price in my book.


                    1 Point EW 25/1 NRNB Generally

                    2pt win NRNB w/o Faugheen 16/1 totesport/fred or even 14/1 paddy/vc/boyles/sky.
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                      #11
                      6-1 now after fauheens withdrawal tru injury!

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                        #12
                        Originally posted by underachievement View Post
                        6-1 now after fauheens withdrawal tru injury!
                        Had moved from 14s to 6s w/o faugheen over last few days. I'm on at 14s. Assume bet is still good.

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                          #13
                          Originally posted by shano1888 View Post
                          Had moved from 14s to 6s w/o faugheen over last few days. I'm on at 14s. Assume bet is still good.
                          Still good. Not swapping the bet now for sure.

                          There is possibly going to be a missprice on Artic Fire as well here. In my view he is near odds on in this race and there is a bit of 3/1 about
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                            #14
                            Kim Muir Ante-Post

                            I had been looking at The Giant Bolster for the 3mile handicap on day 1 but was disappointed when I saw he wasn’t entered . I assumed he was stupidly going for the gold cup. I had a look at his entries and noticed he was entered here a race I hadn’t even looked at yet. He has been a bit of a disappointment this year a bit but has been dropped far too much in my opinion particularly for his last run of level weights. There are horses here that have to give him weight that just have no chance at all, even on his form this year. If you factor in that he certainly prefers decent ground and loves the track if he can improve at all he is the most likely winner here. I was taken by his Hennessy run this year on bad ground and that race probably had an effect on his next run as it was a tough race. If he can travel as well as he did there he will have a lot of these in trouble. There are no circumstances that I can see him getting around that he won’t be placed at least and I think he has a great chance of winning what is a much lower class race than he has been running with credit in, even this year. 16/1 is worthy of a decent EW bet given the NRNB safety net. I would predict that if he does run in this he will go off 10/1 at best and possibly shorter.

                            2 Points ew 16/1 NRNB 4 places tote/fred/vc
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                              #15
                              Originally posted by aidankk View Post
                              Champion Hurdle


                              I’ve been looking at this horse for a while now for this race, and although almost everything else has been falling apart he has been sitting in his box without a run. Obviously Faugheen looks unbeatable in this so we’ll have to look elsewhere for the value and I’ve settled pretty strongly on My Tent or Yours. Ok he’s been off the track for what seems an eternity but he is the one horse with huge potential left to oppose the front 3 in the market. He was of course 2nd to Jezki in 2014 and in that race was clear of both The New One and Hurricane Fly. That form reads very well compared to most of this field. He is due to have a racecourse gallop next week and a possible run in the Kingwell hurdle shortly. My feeling is that NRNB is huge here, as no matter what he does in that race he will not go off anywhere near 25/1 on the day and there may well be only 6-8 runners in the race.


                              He just ticks too many boxes not to be interesting at that price. He has 2 top class performance’s at the festival and has the better of the likes of The New One who is a lot shorter in the betting . If he regains anything like his old form he would have a small chance of winning but looks a huge favourite to place at least and more critically a massive chance to win the with/out Faugheen race

                              In particular the 16/1 w/o Faugheen available in totesport & Betfred looks a really huge price if you can just image that race with an unproven horse like Idendity Thief at 4/1.The failure of Peace and Co today just adds to the value. He is about a 6-8/1 shot for that race for second in my book (if he shows up) and value like that can’t be missed.


                              This bet can only really go two ways. He either bombs out and more than likely won’t go to the race and you get your money back or We’ll be sitting pretty in a 6-8 Horse race, getting 3 places about a horse with great festival form at 25/1 and on a possible winner of the race for 2nd at a huge looking 16/1. My guess if he shows up he will go off at most 12/1 to win.


                              There are a few way's to structure the bet and many may well just go for a big EW bet at the 25/1, but I like tilting the bet towards a big payout of successful and I've gone with 2 pts win as well in the w/o race as this has the biggest margin on the real price in my book.


                              1 Point EW 25/1 NRNB Generally

                              2pt win NRNB w/o Faugheen 16/1 totesport/fred or even 14/1 paddy/vc/boyles/sky.
                              Great shout here just unlucky the way the race fell apart.

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                                #16
                                Day 2


                                2:50


                                This race has one of my big fancies for the festival in Sgt Reckless. I had been thinking he will show up here in a hurdle for a while now. I'm not sure what I think about him running this compared to my initial thought that he would run in the county, but he has always looked like a few extra furlongs would be no harm.


                                My main reason for fancying him so strongly is he is a tie in with the best formline I've seen in Vautour's Supreme in which he was a fast finishing 4th,, ahead of last years plunge horse for us Wicklow Brave. That race was full of top class horses and could not have worked out any better. He will love the good ground and will be flying up the hill which makes his place chance very good for a 50/1 shot.


                                The minute I saw him entered in a big handicap hurdle a few months ago on bad ground where he struggled I had a race here in mind on good ground, and figured he would be readied for it. He has some other top class form including a good run last year in the Arkle. I feel they must think he is well in on hurdles mark as he would surly have a decent chance in one of the Handicap Chases here this week as well.


                                2 Points EW 40/1 5 Places
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                                  #17
                                  Fairyhouse 4:50

                                  Ive been waiting for Guitar Pete to run on decent ground over this trip for over 6 months now. I had expected him to show up at the cheltenham festival but perhaps they had sense and didnt go for the Grand Annual with a novice.. He is a grade 1 winning hurdler who has a great jumping style and i really have a lot of difficutly seeing him loose this race. There just doesnt look a whole lot of opposition and i cant see him going of at much bigger than 3/1. 6/1 is a total gift here and worthy of the biggest bet of the year so far.

                                  4 Points win 6/1 Ladbrokes vcbet Betbright 11/2 elsewhere.
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                                    #18
                                    1:40 Aintree

                                    Volnay De Thaix
                                    disappointed on his second run over fences on heavy ground after a decent looking debut. I’m always willing to forgive one bad run in that ground and my gut is he has been targeted at a run here rather than the spin he had around Cheltenham over hurdles. He was good here last year just going down to Jezki and Rock On Ruby in the Aintree Hurdle and is the highest rated of these over hurdles. I just think his current price of 20/1 is significantly wrong given none of the superstars are in this race. His jumping on his debut was very good until 2 out and he still won that race against 2 very decent horses.

                                    2 Points EW 20/1 ¼ 365 1/5th elsewhere

                                    4:05

                                    At a huge price here I like the look of Dineur. He was second last year around Aintree on a mark of 130 and around this trip is ideal. He was a very consistent chaser a couple of years ago and I think his 2 hunter chase runs are decent enough for one that never really performed on Heavy Ground. 66/1 with 4 places looks huge.


                                    1 Point EW 66/1 4 places Dineur tote/fred/paddy/betfair
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                                      #19
                                      Spectacular tipping. Thanking you.

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                                        #20
                                        Holy feck i though he was going to win there.. Still 66/1 EW not to be sniffed at..
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                                          #21
                                          Yeah, when he took it up I couldn't believe it..ran a super race.

                                          Winner Winner steak dineur.

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                                            #22
                                            5:15 Grand National

                                            I’m going to start early with my best bet of the race. Home Farm has scraped in to this at the bottom of the handicap and although he has been a bit of a disappointing horse more than once he is on a mark there that if he does improve he could well be right in the firing line. On his first run for his current trainer he had a great win over a good field in Thurles and although he was a bit disappointing after he looks to have had this race as a plan for a long time. He has had only run 2 hurdle races this year before coming here and it just ticks too many boxes from a very good trainer both around here and of chasers. 100/1 is just great value and although I’ll be taking advantage of bet365’s fantastic offer of free place bets, I can’t really include that in my figures as there the only bookie.

                                            2 Points EW 100/1 5 Places 365/paddy/VC(6places)/lads/stan and others
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                                              #23
                                              5:30


                                              There is a price for everything and I think Clarcam is better than a 100/1 shot here. His record on good ground is decent and I just feel that if anything were to happen to any of the front 3 in the betting here he has a superb chance of placing. He has had a very light 2016 campaign and I just feel if he runs his best race he can get closer to the likes of Gods Own. He is more of a 40/1 or 50/1 shot here.


                                              1 Point EW 100/1 Generally ¼ place with Ladbrokes
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                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by aidankk View Post
                                                5:30


                                                There is a price for everything and I think Clarcam is better than a 100/1 shot here. His record on good ground is decent and I just feel that if anything were to happen to any of the front 3 in the betting here he has a superb chance of placing. He has had a very light 2016 campaign and I just feel if he runs his best race he can get closer to the likes of Gods Own. He is more of a 40/1 or 50/1 shot here.


                                                1 Point EW 100/1 Generally ¼ place with Ladbrokes
                                                Are you better taking the 66/1 1/4 place first 2 without Vautour?
                                                Bit less on the ew market but your win bet is a go-er

                                                Or is it purely a bet to nick 3rd at too big a price and the first 2 in market are miles away?
                                                Last edited by Guest; 26-04-16, 01:04.

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                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Elshambles View Post
                                                  Are you better taking the 66/1 1/4 place first 2 without Vautour?
                                                  Bit less on the ew market but your win bet is a go-er

                                                  Or is it purely a bet to nick 3rd at too big a price and the first 2 in market are miles away?
                                                  Might have a little bit of each myself. First 2 looks clear but at these odds really your betting on something not going right for 1 of the top 3 and its worth it at 100/1 or 66/1 w/o.
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                                                    #26
                                                    Punchestown Day 4

                                                    5:30

                                                    I think we may have a couple of major mistakes here in the betting. Vroom Vroom Vag has basically beaten nothing of note and in my view its total mental that it’s now favourite here. My guess is that My Tent or Yours may struggle after a fairly torrid race at Aintree, and Identity Thief is a hugely overrated horse still. That leaves me with the simplest pick imaginable in Sepmre Medici. He looked an improving horse this year until the Champion Hurdle where he simply couldn’t go the end to end gallop. It won’t be remotely like that tomorrow and is estimate him being a 6/1 shot or maybe 8/1 at most and the current 14/1 is way too big. If MTOY is well after his last 2 races he would win this on the bridle but that just can’t be assumed here.

                                                    2 Points win 14/1 365/sky/vc/sj/hills

                                                    4:20

                                                    Guitar Pete
                                                    is a horse I’ve been waiting for to win this type of race and on the face of it last time out he was very poor, but that was simply too bad to believe and he may well be suited by the step up in trip here, which is the opposite of what I was thinking before. I still think he has a race like this in him of the current mark and I was shocked to see him in that egg and spoon race last time out. This is a more sensible target for a Grade 1 horse like him of a decent mark and is fairly similar to the winner we picked last year Blood Cotil. 20/1 is huge and if you have a paddy power account they have an extra place which is a big bonus here.

                                                    2 Points EW 20/1 boyles/paddy/betfair
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                                                      #27
                                                      Newbury 5:35

                                                      Fire ship was poor in the Lincoln on silly ground but he has been poor in that race before and improved for it. He also has form on soft ground so of his current low mark he is well placed to get involved here at a big looking price.

                                                      1 Point EW 50/1 Generally

                                                      I put him up at 25/1 earlier 50/1 seems madness .
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                                                        #28
                                                        Epson Derby NRNB.

                                                        This has the look of a very tight race without any real star. When I go through the form I think there is a real chance of a surprise. Shogun is one of the few here with decent Group 1 form and he has looked all along as if a step up in trip is what’s required to get his head in front. The chances are the ground will be better by Saturday and I just think there is nothing between most of these and the only sensible bet is one at a big price. He reminds me of his full sister Qualify who I picked for last year Oaks on the back of similar staying on performances in similar races. I think he looked the best of the 3 runners here from the Derrinstown and he is a far higher price. 50/1 with Ladbrokes is massive and 40/1 with 365/sky and other nrnb.

                                                        2 Points EW 50/1 Ladbrokes 40/1 sky/365 NRNB
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                                                          #29
                                                          Skybet now paying 5 places (most paying 3) in the above race and selection still 40-1.

                                                          Opr

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                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by Opr View Post
                                                            Skybet now paying 5 places (most paying 3) in the above race and selection still 40-1.

                                                            Opr
                                                            I saw that and went to activate my account i got board waiting but that is just unreal value.
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                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by aidankk View Post
                                                              I saw that and went to activate my account i got board waiting but that is just unreal value.
                                                              I backed it last night with Labrokes after seeing your post so haven't availed of it myself but then came across a blog on betfair singing the same tune so went back to check the price and now obviously tempted to have a little more with Skybet.

                                                              "Regardless of what the weather throws at us, Shogun rates the best bet in an incredibly open renewal at 50's"

                                                              Opr

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                                                                #32
                                                                Ascot 5:00

                                                                I’m going with a gut feeling selection here in Montaly. He was a big eye-catcher last year at Ascot over what looks too short a trip of a higher mark than this. I’m willing to ignore his first run this year as surly today has been the plan. He is a massive 40/1 and is till relatively unexposed over this trip

                                                                1 Point EW 40/1 Generally
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                                                                  #33
                                                                  Hope to finish of this tread with a couple of shouts a big prices.

                                                                  Ascot 2:45


                                                                  I've been waiting for Stepper Point to run a fast 5 Furlongs on good ground and he has a huge amount of positives today for a 33/1 shot. He showed up well last time out while not staying the extra furlong at Ascot. He loved good ground and is drawn in probably the right place. Of this mark and that amount of pace last time he is one best value bets in a while. He understandably took a race or 2 to get over mayden exertions as a lot of horses do and if he improved here he is going to be hard to catch.


                                                                  2 Points EW 33/1 Generally


                                                                  4:35 Newmarket

                                                                  I don't agree at all that Sole power is poor over 6 furlongs. I think he needs the breaks and got them in his 5 furlong wins. Last year he was 4th here behind a better horse than any of these and after not getting the breaks in mayden he arrives here relatively fresh this year. He will be closing at the finish and 40/1 is just an insult.


                                                                  1 Point EW 40/1 4 places Betvictor 33/1 5 places sky 33/1 4 places generally.

                                                                  Cotai Glory came alarmingly close to bagging us a 40/1 winner when a closing 2nd at Royal Ascot and when looking like a step up will suit 33/1 is overpriced.

                                                                  1 Point win 33/1 Generally
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                                                                    #34
                                                                    I don't need much convincing to go for a 3 figure price but I think The Twizler is overpriced today in the goodwood cup . He didn't stay last time in the gold cup and could be a decent front runner today 125/1 Ew. Also went with Wicklow at 14 .
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                                                                      #35
                                                                      Champion Hurdle

                                                                      Last year I went for My Tent or Yours ew and he ran a great race after a long absence. I think he is being underestimated again this year. He is one of the only horses in the field with genuine Champion Hurdle form which is all that counts in this race. He hasn’t been great this year but between soft ground and not having the race run to suit at Christmas I think he could well be a different horse after a break at the festival. Of the shorter priced horses half won’t run and the other half are just out of novice company and don’t even look like the top of the novice tree from last year either. 50/1 NRNB is massive now with Faugheen out and when he turns up here he is a 20/1 shot at best. I’d be going for a bigger bet if there were more bookies at the 50/1 but we’ll leave it at 1 pt ew.

                                                                      1 Point EW 50/1 NRNB totesport/Fred
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                                                                        #36
                                                                        Originally posted by aidankk View Post
                                                                        Champion Hurdle

                                                                        Last year I went for My Tent or Yours ew and he ran a great race after a long absence. I think he is being underestimated again this year. He is one of the only horses in the field with genuine Champion Hurdle form which is all that counts in this race. He hasn’t been great this year but between soft ground and not having the race run to suit at Christmas I think he could well be a different horse after a break at the festival. Of the shorter priced horses half won’t run and the other half are just out of novice company and don’t even look like the top of the novice tree from last year either. 50/1 NRNB is massive now with Faugheen out and when he turns up here he is a 20/1 shot at best. I’d be going for a bigger bet if there were more bookies at the 50/1 but we’ll leave it at 1 pt ew.

                                                                        1 Point EW 50/1 NRNB totesport/Fred

                                                                        Not swapping now 16/1 generally after good reports from Henderson. Really need rain to stay away..
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                                                                          #37
                                                                          Triumph NRNB

                                                                          It looks to me as if there is a huge chance the ground will be at least Good-Soft again here and I think there is no chance that Landofhopeandglory will start at 20/1 on good ground. He is sure to improve for his last run and the Heavy Ground then was never going to suit. I’m going to take the 20/1 now as he’ll go of about 12/1 at best. He was favorite for this race for a long time and I’m not sure anything that has happened since has changed his chance. There is also the slight risk and that hot fav here will withdraw on good ground which will have a huge effect on the price.


                                                                          1 Point win 20/1 sky/boyles/sporting/32 and more
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                                                                            #38
                                                                            Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
                                                                            If you are backing that fella win only then I'd be shocked if you couldn't get bigger on the machine on the day. I mean JPOB has done a fine job of ruining him as a racehorse for this season (even though I retain hope for next year) and plenty of people will want to lay him on the day. I'd sit tight if I was you.
                                                                            You could be right, but i have a feeling he will be much better on the ground and will be backed in accordingly. On good ground the FAV will probably not run which will have a huge effect on price. I kind of hope you right as ill be wanting to back him on the day on the course as well.

                                                                            As for win only. For longterm its better to just go win only , i tend to only go EW on bigger priced horses.
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                                                                              #39
                                                                              12:50 Meyden
                                                                              I’m about to pick the biggest price horse I’ve ever selected, as I’m hopeful I’ve found the real value in this race tomorrow. Basateen had been a disappointing horse, but has been a bit of an eye-catcher on his last few runs and has improved with each run and each step up in trip. He was particularly eye-catching last time against the top 2 in this market when anything that could have went wrong did as he got no run at all and finished well to be 4th 3 lengths behind the fav here. He steps up another 2 furlongs here and is completely unexposed over this trip. From what I’ve seen last time this may well improve him again and if it does there is no chance he is a 200/1 shot. Now let’s not get carried away as at best he is a 33/1 or 40/1 shot here but still those margins are huge and with the added bonus of his potential stepped up again I’m all over this 200/1. IF only I could get 4 places EW, but still beggars can’t be choosers and we’ll have to make do with 3 places here. I’d be getting on early as these kinds of prices will go as soon as a few people stick on small enough EW bets.

                                                                              2 Points EW 200/1 Paddy/Betfair/VC
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                                                                                #40
                                                                                Basateen is 150/1 with Paddy and Betfair w/o FAV, might even be a better bet EW
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                                                                                  #41
                                                                                  Originally posted by aidankk View Post
                                                                                  Basateen is 150/1 with Paddy and Betfair w/o FAV, might even be a better bet EW
                                                                                  I was talking to a mate that works over there this morning. Said the weather is shite. Turf will ride very slow and the kickback on the dirt track will be horrendous. Expecting a few shock results.

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                                                                                    #42
                                                                                    Aintree Grand National

                                                                                    I’m going to get in a bit early with my first selection here as I think sense will prevail shortly and he will shorten to about 33/1 before the end of the week. Bishops Road is a certain stayer here, and although he fell at his first attempt at these fences, he has only had 1 go and some of his form even this year reads well I comparison top a lot of this field. He has given weight to a lot of those up the top of the market and is much better in here after only 3 runs this year. At 9 he is the right age and with under 11 stone he has too many positives to ignore. I’m also pretty sure he can act on decent ground and if the amount of soft that is in the ground stays there, all the better. I think he will not be out of the places if he stands up (which is obviously a big if the same as every horse at every price) .

                                                                                    2 Points EW 50/1 6 places Paddy/VC 66/1 5 places sky 50/1 5 places elsewhere
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                                                                                      #43
                                                                                      Scottish National 3:55 Ayr

                                                                                      The way things are going for the last few months any selection of mine is a fairly easy lay considering recent results, but I just can’t resist a 3 figure price about a horse that did me a favour a couple of times in the past. Firebird Flyer, let’s face it, has been poor this year and in general is seen as a soft ground horse. He does have some bits of form on good ground which gives an indication that he can run well on decent ground. He hasn’t actually run on that ground for 3 years. He is a certain stayer on his day and is down below his last winning mark. 6 Places with Paddy Power is a fairly big concession and I just feel he might not be running here if he was going to get nowhere again.

                                                                                      1 Point EW 100/1 6 Places Paddy 66/1 6 places SKY
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                                                                                        #44
                                                                                        Ascot 4:00

                                                                                        Professor
                                                                                        takes a leap of faith to give him a hope here but he really has been given a chance by the handicapper. He has been improving a bit over his last few runs and arrives here fit and ready to run. He if recovers even the form of his 6th last year in the Challenge Cup over this course and distance he will be right in the firing line here as he has 15lbs less to carry now. 50/1 and 6 places with paddy power looks madness to me.

                                                                                        1.5 Points EW 50/1 6 places Paddy Power.

                                                                                        My second pick in this is another 50/1 shot Shady McCoy. He really got going last year after a good win at Goodwood. He was a very good second to Salateen which has won 3 more times since, at Newmarket in what looks a very good race. He also ran well in a big handicap at Goodwood when not getting luck in running. If he can get back to that form here he could well be closing on these at the finish and looks value to get involved.

                                                                                        1 Point ew 50/1 6 places Paddy Power
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                                                                                          #45
                                                                                          Professor NR

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                                                                                            #46
                                                                                            Originally posted by aidankk View Post
                                                                                            My second pick in this is another 50/1 shot Shady McCoy. He really got going last year after a good win at Goodwood. He was a very good second to Salateen which has won 3 more times since, at Newmarket in what looks a very good race. He also ran well in a big handicap at Goodwood when not getting luck in running. If he can get back to that form here he could well be closing on these at the finish and looks value to get involved.

                                                                                            1 Point ew 50/1 6 places Paddy Power
                                                                                            Nice one, cheers.

                                                                                            Opr

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                                                                                              #47
                                                                                              Originally posted by aidankk View Post
                                                                                              Ascot 4:00

                                                                                              Professor
                                                                                              takes a leap of faith to give him a hope here but he really has been given a chance by the handicapper. He has been improving a bit over his last few runs and arrives here fit and ready to run. He if recovers even the form of his 6th last year in the Challenge Cup over this course and distance he will be right in the firing line here as he has 15lbs less to carry now. 50/1 and 6 places with paddy power looks madness to me.

                                                                                              1.5 Points EW 50/1 6 places Paddy Power.

                                                                                              My second pick in this is another 50/1 shot Shady McCoy. He really got going last year after a good win at Goodwood. He was a very good second to Salateen which has won 3 more times since, at Newmarket in what looks a very good race. He also ran well in a big handicap at Goodwood when not getting luck in running. If he can get back to that form here he could well be closing on these at the finish and looks value to get involved.

                                                                                              1 Point ew 50/1 6 places Paddy Power

                                                                                              Nice place..Great shout..wasn't sure if the gaps would come.

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                                                                                                #48
                                                                                                Ascot 3:00

                                                                                                I’ve been hoping for a bit of rain for my big priced selection in this race. Burnt Sugar has some very good Ascot Handicap form in these types of races. He was 6th last year in the Wokingham of a mark of 106 and he was also 4th in this on soft ground the year before of a mark of 102. He went in for us in some style for us a couple of runs ago and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he gets involved here at a huge price of a mark of 88. Ascot course form is huge in these races and he has some of the best here. Let’s hope he is drawn on the right side.

                                                                                                2 Points EW 40/1 6 places paddy/sky/hills 50/1 5 places fred/vc/tote
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                                                                                                  #49
                                                                                                  Goodwood 3:00

                                                                                                  This is going to be my easiest pick of the week. This race will be fought out by the Group 1 performers and there is only 3 in this field Limato/ Librisa Breeze and Suedois. Suedois is one of the most consistent sprinters of the last few years and has been improving this year to a very good run at Royal Ascot where he probably went off too fast. He has been placed in the only Group 1 over this trip last year behind Limato, who doesn’t look as good this year. He is drawn well in 6 and I just think his price of 33/1 with 4 places is just silly. I looked at the horse first scrolled up expecting about 12/1 and nearly fell of my chair. All this of course is tempered with its Goodwood and anything can happen but that price has to be backed to the max

                                                                                                  3 Points EW 33/1 4 places Paddy/Betfair 28/1 4 places sky/tote
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                                                                                                    #50
                                                                                                    Couldn't tip the 50/1 winner could ya.

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                                                                                                      #51
                                                                                                      Originally posted by aidankk View Post
                                                                                                      Goodwood 3:00

                                                                                                      This is going to be my easiest pick of the week. This race will be fought out by the Group 1 performers and there is only 3 in this field Limato/ Librisa Breeze and Suedois. Suedois is one of the most consistent sprinters of the last few years and has been improving this year to a very good run at Royal Ascot where he probably went off too fast. He has been placed in the only Group 1 over this trip last year behind Limato, who doesn’t look as good this year. He is drawn well in 6 and I just think his price of 33/1 with 4 places is just silly. I looked at the horse first scrolled up expecting about 12/1 and nearly fell of my chair. All this of course is tempered with its Goodwood and anything can happen but that price has to be backed to the max

                                                                                                      3 Points EW 33/1 4 places Paddy/Betfair 28/1 4 places sky/tote
                                                                                                      That was the most confident bet ive put up in years. Never in doubt gave us hope of a win as well.. Ill be gone for a while ive to go to a few paddy power shops ;-)
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                                                                                                        #52
                                                                                                        Great shout Aiden, cheers
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                                                                                                          #53
                                                                                                          Originally posted by CHDog View Post
                                                                                                          Couldn't tip the 50/1 winner could ya.
                                                                                                          You know what i mean loike; group 1 horse at 50's


                                                                                                          Up your game aiden lad!

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                                                                                                            #54
                                                                                                            Ah yeah. That's man's a genius is tbf. Tyty

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                                                                                                              #55
                                                                                                              Gent, TY.

                                                                                                              Hopefully your fancy in the next High Jinx @66/1 can place for the EW double also.

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                                                                                                                #56
                                                                                                                ...What's the crack with so many races being 1/5 instead of 1/4... Delighted with the place but less than I thought...

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                                                                                                                  #57
                                                                                                                  Originally posted by luckforsome View Post
                                                                                                                  ...What's the crack with so many races being 1/5 instead of 1/4... Delighted with the place but less than I thought...
                                                                                                                  Your paying for the extra place there , which was important.

                                                                                                                  And all the bookies have tightened up the place thieving
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                                                                                                                    #58
                                                                                                                    3:35 Goodwood

                                                                                                                    This race is a head wreaker for me as I had Donjuan Triumphant in mind for this for ages, especially if the ground was on the soft side. He was 33/1 all week and I waited for extra places etc and now he is 20/1 so the value is gone. I’m going to go with a lot of the trainers opinion instead a general opinion that high draw may be best. Mobsta has a couple of eye-popping runs this year on softer ground that would put him right in the picture here. A repeat of his Duke of York run from earlier this year would actually be enough to win here and after a few bad runs of fast ground he looked a bit better last time out. My guess is he will be ready to fire today at a huge price. The more I look at it Growl may well be far too good for thee with a very good 7lbs claimer on but I just can’t go with an 8/1 fav in this field. Unfortunately with no value low in going to have to go with another high draw. Outback Traveller will like the ground we can safely assume that he is well capable of picking up another of these race soon enough and 28/1 is value of a workable mark.


                                                                                                                    1.5 Points EW Mobsta 50/1 7 places Sky 50/1 6 places Ladbrokes/Coral


                                                                                                                    1 Point Win Outback Traveller28/1 Hills/Lads
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