I'm going to try and be far more selective for about a year to see what happens. Its hard for anyone to follow 3-400 a year, which i have been doing for years at a decent ROI. Hopefully being more selective will work just as well, with the advantage that ill have an actual bet on all of these.
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LongshotValue 40 bets 1 year
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York 2:25
I can’t get my eyes of Sheikzayedroad here. He looks to have a superb chance at what looks a big price. He meets nothing here that is of Group1 class and although he wasn’t as good this year in his 2 runs after Mayden, as he was last year, he tried to do too much too soon in following Big Orange last time out. The fav look a fair bit overrated to me and almost everything else has fairly big question marks. St Michel could improve but he is in here on level weights and was fairly soundly beaten by my selection last year getting a stone.
In Meyden Sheikzayedroad ran a superb race in the Gold Cup not really getting any luck. I’d be as sure as I can be that he will improve here as he really kicked on last year towards the end of the year with 2 very good Group 2 wins.
He actually seems the most likely winner and 8/1 is huge.
3 Points win 8/1 365/fred/paddy/tote/betfairsigpic
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York 3:00
I’ve been looking at Aeolus for this and dithering about putting him up, with my new found idea of putting up far less horses than before. He just looks like a horse that is in top form at the moment and although on the face of it he looks to have to make up about 7lbs to get seriously involved, he has in the past been of a mark that would be very competitive here. He was superb in the Stewards Cup and that race is close enough to this level to make it a strong possibility that he can find the improvement. He was also a big eye catcher on his previous run. 33/1 with 4 places looks great value . Bet365 are the best as they has 4 places and ¼ odds.
1.5 Points EW 33/1 4 places 365/paddy/betfairsigpic
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Curragh 4:20
Dunkum Diamond is a horse I was following for a while earlier this year thinking he would pop up at a big price at some stage this year. He has shown improved form on his last 2 runs and I’d have to think he will run his best race in Ireland this year today. He is a stone below his very consistent uk form and has been travelling much better in his last few races. In Galway he was outside the whole way around and did well to get anywhere near there. He travelled well here last time out to be second in a decent race without a 5lbs claimer on and that run with a bit of improvement will put him close enough here to make 40/1 enticing.
1 Point EW 40/1 5 places Ladbrokes / Coral 33/1 6 places Sky
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2:25 Haydock Sprint Cup
This is as easy a pick as I’ve had in a while. The Tin Man is a dual Group 1 winner over 6 furlongs, has form on soft and was 2nd in this last year when he was slow away. He is a better horse than Brando and is more than twice the price. He does have a poor run last time out to forgive but that is always the way in sprints. 8/1 is huge he is a 9/2 shot here. The fav could struggle on this ground
3 Points win 8/1 Fred/Paddy/VC/tote/boyles/betfair
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6:45 Leopardstown
The Grey Gatsby moved to Dermot Weld and has been caught up in a stable hugely out of form since. I thought he traveled well last time until he ran out of puff over 12 furlongs. This has always been his trip and he has landed here with decent ground and at a huge price in the worst edition of this race ever run. 66/1 is easily worth the risk , especially now the stable has come back to form.
1.5 Points EW 66/1 Bet365 1/4 Place 66/1 1/5th elsewheresigpic
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4:50 Irish Ledger
I don’t think there is much between Torcedor/Wicklow Brave and Twilight Pavement and with that in mind the 40/1 about Twilight Pavement looks a good 25% too big. He also appears better on softer ground and earlier this year he lost by 5lengths to Torcedor giving him 6 lbs when he got away a bit too easy turning for home. That run puts them very close on form 40/1 is too big
1 Point EW 40/1 ¼ Bet365 40/1 1/5th elsewhere.
3:05 Leop
I just can’t resist a 3 figure price that has any shout at all and I’m going to go with a small bet here on Pious Alexander. She should have no chance here on ratings but has caught the eye twice without any luck in decent races and if she gets a rune here I think she can get involved at an outrageous price.
1 Point EW 150/1 Stars/unibet/32/888 100/1 Elsewheresigpic
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So much for reducing my bets.
3:35 Doncaster
When the ground was drying out I felt that Douglas MacArthur was one of the bets of the year at 50/1. I’m afraid the softer ground has tempered that confidence a fair bit. He is still a decent bet at that price but on good ground he looked a certainty to be in the first 4 here. He has better form and is certainly a far better horse than some that are less than half his price. He has also looked a possible stayer on a few occasions once he is not haring off in front. 50/1 with 4 places on paddy/betfair is still massive as I have him near a 20/1 shot at most
3 Points EW 50/1 4 Places Paddy/Betfair 40/1 4 Places Sky
3:00 Doncaster
Seahenge looked like a horse that had no idea he was supposed to speed up and the end last time out behind Eagle Eye. He wasn’t really forced to in a reasonably tender looking ride and I think he may well have learned from that and 16/1 is just too big.
1 Point win 16/1 vc/paddy/boyle/betfair
2:25
Peace Envoy is a horse I’ve liked from last year and despite 2 poor runs in top class races lately on firm ground I think he could well be better here on softer ground. He has plenty of form in the book that makes him interesting and if he is ready to rune here after a break he is a classy horse to be up to 28/1
1 Point win 25/1 Generally 28/1 sporting/betfair
Doncaster 1:30
Eastern Impact is on a decent mark here and I’m always willing to forgive sprinters a bad run or two. He could well be the classiest runner in this race and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bit of a resurgence here at a big looking 25/1
1 Point win 25/1 vc/uni/32/black/888/betfairsigpic
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Newbury 3:25
First Flight is just far too consistent over this trip and conditions to be a 40/1 shot here. He is cast iron to be involved in the finish and looks about a 3/1 shot to be placed at best. Mosse is one of the best jockeys around and was 2nd on his earlier on this year. He will give us a run for our money. I think given his profile the extra place is worth a drop in win price.
1 Point EW 40/1 5 places Hills 33/1 5 places sky/paddy/lads and otherssigpic
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Newmarket 3:10
Agent Murphy is taking a step up in trip which is what he needs judging by his form a few years ago. If he gets held up here and can improve again here as he has been doing in his runs this year he can get involved. There is a slight risk that he may be getting ready for a big run in the main race is a few weeks’ time but at 25/1 he is worth the risk as the class horse of the race of a workable mark
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1 Point win 25/1 Generally
Newbury 4:00
Muthmir is a Group 1 performer and when I look at this race he just wins most of the time. There will be a mad pace with multiple front runners and that should set it up perfectly for him here. Apart from his last run he has been on top form this year and is really about a 3/1 shot here so 6/1 is great value.
I’m just going to have a small just in case bet on Just Glamorous at a huge price. He has not been staying in his races this year and should be getting fitter with each race. One of these days he will stay out there and cause a shock. 80/1 is worth the risk
2 Points win 6/1 Muthmir Generally
½ Point win 80/1 Just Glamorous Generally
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Newbury 2:15
There is nothing between My Dream Boat and the fav Desert Encounter on form and my guess is todays trip will be right up My Dream Boats’ alley. Even on this year’s form he is one of the most likely winners here and he has some top class form on good ground. He should be certainly 3rd fav here and 12/1 is way too big he will go of around 7/1. If he settles at all he can pick of most of these.
2 Points win 12/1 365/hill/lads/coralsigpic
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3:35 Newmarket
Ive had Battle of Marathon in mind for this at a huge price for a while and with the ground now soft he really has everything in his favor. Considering he was 5th in last years Royal Hunt Cup of a mark of 110 on soft ground and if effectively 20 lbs lower now with the aid of a 7lbs claimer with a good record for this trainer, 66/1 with 6 places looks very big. The trainer is in decent form of late. He was also 3rd in last years Lincoln of 5 lbs lower again on soft ground. In fairness a lot of luck in needed here but 66/1 is just massive.
2.5 Points EW 66/1 6 places Paddy/Betfairsigpic
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New 2:55
Declarationofpeace is getting another shot from me here after an improved performance last time out. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him give his best performance of the season here and that makes the 66/1 great value. He had a bit too much to do last time out but it’s possible that was a cautious run after him bombing out at Ascot.
1 Point EW 66/1 365 ¼ place 1/5th elsewhere
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3:15 Haydock
Going through this field its possible Rene Mathis has the best soft ground form on offer. He will certainly be staying on at the finish here having won a big handicap on soft over 7 furlongs in the past. His last run was impressive and although he has been on a break since he is running of a workable mark here. He could be very difficult to kick out of the 5 here
2 Points EW 28/1 5 places paddy/Betfairsigpic
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Haydock 2:40
Kinglami’s record on soft/heavy ground is exceptional. He has never done anything really when it hasn’t been soft and of bottom weight here with plenty of bookies going 4 places the 14 runners 28/1 is starting to look very big. His second last run was very good really. We have his last run to forgive but there would have to be some negative for a horse of that price.
1.5 Points EW 28/1 4 places lads/paddy//betfair/coralsigpic
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Originally posted by aidankk View Post3:35 Newmarket
Ive had Battle of Marathon in mind for this at a huge price for a while and with the ground now soft he really has everything in his favor. Considering he was 5th in last years Royal Hunt Cup of a mark of 110 on soft ground and if effectively 20 lbs lower now with the aid of a 7lbs claimer with a good record for this trainer, 66/1 with 6 places looks very big. The trainer is in decent form of late. He was also 3rd in last years Lincoln of 5 lbs lower again on soft ground. In fairness a lot of luck in needed here but 66/1 is just massive.
2.5 Points EW 66/1 6 places Paddy/Betfair
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3:05 Arc
Not a lot of time for explanations but Silverwave has a good record around here and there is nothing between any of these French horses. This race needs a huge amount of luck on the ground and around here and I’d prefer to be on a 200/1 shot that is a 66/1 shot than any of the lower priced horses. He actually appears to be better than ever this year and his last run can be ignored and he will be prepared for today. My gut feeling is Enable and Order of saint George and Capri will fight out the finish. Im also going to go for a small win saver on Satono Diamond as he still has prospected of beign a top class horse and 50/1 is value
2 Points EW Silverwave 4 places 365 200/1 ¼ Place
1 Point win 50/1 Satono Diamond Generallysigpic
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4:35 Chantilly
Duke of Firenze goes on any ground but won’t be at all inconvenienced with the soft ground here. He was great in this race last year in 6th without getting a decent run through and I think he is capable of outrunning his odds here. 100/1 with 4 places is worth a shot.
1 Point EW 100/1 4 places Paddy/Betfair 80/1 4 places sky/boylessigpic
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Ascot 3:00
I'm not convinced at all by the Sprint cup form and altough the favs form stands out he looks too short here at the weights . Magical Memory was poor in that race but if we ignore that he really should go close here . 8/1 looks really big for a group 1 class horse here.
2 points win 8/1 generallysigpic
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5:15
Felix Mendersson has always been a bit of a disappointing horse but I saw a lot of promise in his 3rd at the Curragh in May and 3rd in what could be a very decent Maiden Hurdle 2 months ago. I think the step up on the flat could really suit him and wouldn’t be at all surprised if he was to improve here at a huge price. Ill have to go for a small saver on Western Boy, who is well capable here is on a going day. I was away this weekend so have missed the good EW price.
1 Point EW 50/1 Felix Mendersson 5 places generally
1 Point win 20/1 Western Boysigpic
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Newmarket 3:35
I think Ryan Moore has got in wrong here as i really fancied September on decent ground here. With Happily gone I’m even more confident. September has been bogged down last twice on soft ground and if she can repeat the turn of foot in her first 2 runs she’ll be hard to stop. I make her a 3/1 shot here and 5/1 is far too big.
3 Points win 5/1 365/lads/coral/blacksigpic
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3:00 Newmarket
The easiest pick of the day is a hug price. Mendelssohn clearly didn’t enjoy it last time out and I think he will be far more at home here on fast ground. His previous win was decent despite being very green and I fully expect him to step up significantly here . 80/1 is just silly
1 Point EW 80/1 365 ¼ place paddy/betfair/888/vc 1/5 place
3:40 Newmarket
Star Rider likes this track, ran well in this last year despite being in the wrong position all the way and again ran well from a poor position at Ascot this year all off higher marks than today. If he were mine today would be the day with all those factors. He has been poor his last 2 starts but that was on softer ground and my guess is he has 1 target this year.66/1 is huge with 7 places. If it wasn’t for the draw in another county id be really letting loose here.
1.5 Points EW 66/1 7 places Paddy/Betfair 66/1 6 places generally
Digeanta ran a great race for us at Galway at a big price and is always competitive in these races. He has had a break since 2 poorer runs over shorter trips in August and im fairly sure he will be a fair bt better today.40/1 looks value
1 Point EW 40/1 8 places sky/hills 7 places paddy/betfair
York 3:15
Today could be the day for Growl, he has been as good as every this year on top class races and a a mark of 105 with a 5 lbs claimer on is going to put him right in the mix here. 20/1 is just huge for what looks one the most likely winners and a 10/1 shot.
2 Points win 20/1 generallysigpic
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Originally posted by aidankk View PostNewmarket 3:35
I think Ryan Moore has got in wrong here as i really fancied September on decent ground here. With Happily gone I’m even more confident. September has been bogged down last twice on soft ground and if she can repeat the turn of foot in her first 2 runs she’ll be hard to stop. I make her a 3/1 shot here and 5/1 is far too big.
3 Points win 5/1 365/lads/coral/black
Originally posted by aidankk View Post3:00 Newmarket
The easiest pick of the day is a hug price. Mendelssohn clearly didn’t enjoy it last time out and I think he will be far more at home here on fast ground. His previous win was decent despite being very green and I fully expect him to step up significantly here . 80/1 is just silly
1 Point EW 80/1 365 ¼ place paddy/betfair/888/vc 1/5 place
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6:30 Caulfield Cup
I’ve been having a look at Sir Isaac Newtons runs down here and most of them have been over too short a trip. He looks to be improving all the time and ran well in this last year after pulling way to hard all the way. He was a better horse that the favourite here Johannes Vermeer and my gut is he will run a lot better here than his huge price indicates.
1 Point EW 50/1 5 places sky/fred
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1:25 Ascot
It appears to me that the 3yo’s in this might have the upper hand apart from the favourite. Mount Moriah caught the eye as a potential improver stepped up in trip in the Irish Ledger and he is a huge price here because he wasn’t suited by the drop back in trip last time in a race that turned into ta sprint. He has also performed on soft ground and on form there may not be much between him and Desert Skyline so an extra zero on the price is always welcome. A 3 figure price is the icing on the cake.
1 Point EW 100/1 ¼ 365 100/1 1/5th sporting/vc
2:00 Ascot
Washington Dc has been as good as ever this year and when I look at it he has performed on soft ground before. He is the sort of horse that needs thing to go his way but as this race will be run at a mental pace it should really suit him 100/1 is more than double his real price here.
2 Points EW 100/1 Generally
2:40 Ascot
The French have a strong hand here but I fancy the outsider of their runners here. The Juliet Rose has won on soft/heavy has had a very light season and wasn’t far behind Bateel on her first run this year. This end of season race on soft ground could well be a great opportunity for her at a big price.
2 Points win 20/1 365/sporting/betfair/paddy
3:15
I’m afraid I can’t resist old habits and despite the soft ground I just can’t resist a small EW bet on Lancaster Bomber here. The straight at Ascot is one of the best draining courses around and with high winds forecast, it’s worth a small risk just in case I’ve my head in my hands at the finish and am not on.
1 Point EW 80/1 ¼ Place 365 1/5th hills/betfair/paddy/stansigpic
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3:50
Cliffs of Moher has been my pick for this all week and now he is a bigger price than I expected at 11/1. He will be suited by the stiffer test here and for me was the big eye catcher in the Irish Version.
2 Points win 11/1 365/lads/coral
4:30 Ascot
I’m going to go with a couple here at huge price that have form on soft. Gabriel has been running well this year and looks to have a very high chance of getting in the 5 here as he is super consistent and of a reasonable mark. In addition Eddystone Rock’s best ever run was on soft ground in Ireland when really hacking up giving a very good horse weight. He also was a bit of an eye catcher last time out in the Cambridgeshire when getting going far too late to finish well.
1 Point EW Gabriel 40/1 5 places ¼ 365/lads
1 Point EW Eddystone Rock 40/1 5 places ¼ 365 1/5th generallysigpic
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Dundalk 7:30
Pocketfullofdreams has been bogged down on soft ground all of the 2nd half of this year. I think she will get back to form on this surface and 33/1 is a big price for a horse with decent form. She could well go of in front and stay at this trip.
1P oint EW 33/1 4 places lads/coral 3 places elsewheresigpic
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Doncaster 3:25
The Aidan O’Brien trio look to be in the complete wrong order to me. I think Seahenge is the best of these on this year’s form and he hasn’t had the run of the race in his last 2 runs but has still performed to a level above anything else here. My guess is he will improve again here and this mile will really suit him. AS I have him at a 4 – 6/1 shot the currently available 12/1 is a huge bargain and we won’t be missing that. When I look through the form Coat of Arms isn’t very far behind any of these and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him take a hand in the finish here at a 3 figure price. Don’t get me wrong he is probably a 50/1 shot but 100/1 he isn’t for steadily improving 2yo on good ground
3 Points win 12/1 Seahenge Generally
1 Point EW Coat of Arms 100/1 ¼ place 365 1/5th elsewhere
Newbury 2:15
Across the stars is a bit of a forgotten horse here. He has form on soft and is a big price here purely because of a poor run latest, which was probably too close to a very good run at Chester. He has the form in the book to go close here and that Chester run has worked out well. He should be staying on here and 22/1 is very big, I’d have him near half that.
2 Points win 22/1 365/lads/coral and otherssigpic
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Doncaster 4:00
Orion’s Bow was in the process of improving again this year up to Ascot in the summer. He put in 3 poor runs and then showed a little bit more last time out. If that signals a return to form at all he will be right there of this mark. 25/1 is worth the risk
2 Points EW 25/1 ¼ place generallysigpic
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1:50 Aintree
Cloudy too ran well enough in a couple of these races last year and I think we can be fairly sure that today has been the plan for early this year. HE had a spin over hurdles lately and should be competitive of this mark. 16/1 looks a bit of value for a classy horse that may not be finished yet. There is a negative in that most of his form is on soft ground
1 Point win 16/1 generally
2:45 Wincanton
Mosspark has a good record fresh is a certainty to stay the trip and looks a long way overpriced here at 25/1. He is a consistent horse with good form in the book.
1 Point win 25/1 Generallysigpic
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3:00 Ascot
Clayton catches the eye here on a potentially god mark here. He is a 100 horse on the flat and poor jumping has him down on a mark of 122 over hurdles. He has a good record fresh and if his jumping has been improved over the summer he can get involved here. 25/1 is worth the risk
1 Point win 25/1 lads/hills 22/1 boyles/coral
Ascot 3:35
The Young Master looks a bit of a forgotten horse here. He has some decent runs fresh and is a course and distance winner of a higher mark here. Carrying less than 11 stone here he will be right in the firing line if he is back to form after the break. Last year wasn’t great hence both the mark and price but 25/1 is a big price for horse that had loads of potential and is still young.
1 Point win 25/1 Generally
Down Royal 2:30
Once again laziness has cost me one of the value bets of the year. Outlander was 25/1 yesterday for this and I really thought that was huge but I’m guilty of waiting for a w/o fav price this morning and now he is 16/1 at best. I’ll still have a small win bet at that price on the horse with the best form in this race. He was poor enough on his first run this year but if he improves for that today has surly been his target
1 Point win 16/1 365/sporting/fred/tote
Wetherby 3:15
Cue Card just wins this if he is anywhere near his best but for a value pick I like the look of Shantou Flyer. If the big 2 aren’t on top form here there isn’t much between him and the rest and he will improve for the step up in trip here. He likes soft ground and ran his best race ever first time out last year at Cheltenham. 33/1 is a huge price.
1 Point win 33/1 365/paddy 28/1 generallysigpic
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Del Mar 7:37
Washington DC looks to be in the process of running a good race last time till he got sandwiched late on. This race could really suit him. He will need the luck in running but I think Lady Aurelia could setup the race for him to get involved. She seems impossible to beat here but its very short for a race that requires a silly amount of luck. I’m going to go for a couple of tiny tricasts here at huge prices as well
1 Point EW 25/1 betfair/paddy/boyles/fred
BET365 Tricast 1 Lady 2 Washington 3 Marsha ½ Point 74
BET365 Tricast 1 Lady 2 Marsha 3 Washington ½ Point 52
Del Mar 9:00
Nezwahh has had a nice light season could be a lot better on this ground and my guess is she will improve a huge amount for her last run. 20/1 is too big.
1 Point win 20/1 Paddy/Betfair
Del Mar 10:19
When In Rome and all that, I fancy Ribchester, Lancaster Bomber and Zelzal here so I’m going for a few tricasts at huge prices for fun. 1.5 points total
¼ Point win Tricast 365 Rib/Lanc/Zel 255
¼ Point win Tricast 365 Rib/Zel/Lan 234
¼ Point win Tricast 365 Zel/Lan/Zel 407
¼ Point win Tricast 365 zel/rib/lan 304
¼ Point win Tricast 265 Lan/Zel/Rib 437
¼ Point win Tricast 265 Lan/rib/zel 352
Del Mar 22/58
Us Navy Flag could well be out of sight here from stall 1 and 9/1 seems very big. He has had a busy season but has only improved with each run.
2 Points win 9/1 betfair/paddy/888sigpic
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3:15 Cork
Rogue Angel is always going to need him first run and as first runs go I’d be very happy with this year’s one in the Kerry National. He led turning in and just got tired which is understandable. This race doesn’t look as strong and he could be very difficult to get him out of the 4 here of a very workable mark.
2 Points EW 33/1 4 places paddy/fred/betfair/boylessigpic
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Melbourne Cup 4:00 am
I couldn't have a more confident pick here. Hartnell looks a huge price at 28/1. He was a very good 3rd in this last year when well clear of the rest of the field. He is 3k better off with the winner for a 4 length beating and the runner up isn't here. He has had a lower key season this year than last and today is surly the day for him to be at his peak. There are negatives for him, being top weight but he is always carrying this weight anyway. This year's race is not as strong as last years as far as I can see. Of the Irish challengers I fancy Max Dynamite bit he is too short for this race. Wicklow brave will run a lot better than least here but the huge price with 6 places is gone so I'm not sure what value he is now. The 6 places on offer is a big concession for a consistent horse and I actually make Hartnell near evens to be in the 6. That makes the 5/1 on offer just far too big to ignore. His win chance isn't as much value id have him more of a 16/1 or 18/1 shot but that is still plenty of margin. Time for an actual bet with the 25/1 and 6 places with paddy/betfair/sky
3 Points EW 25/1 6 places paddy/betfair/skysigpic
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Originally posted by Mellor View PostThat's what I thought you mean, but he's 1.5kg heavier this year. 57.5kg vrs 56kgsigpic
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Originally posted by aidankk View PostYeah but this years race isn't as strong so he has top weight . He has 3 kilo difference with last years winner. Last year he had to give him 4K only 1 this year .
You comparing Hartnell vrs Winner last year, but likely not the winner this year.
Personally, I think the weight is a big ask to overcome for hartnell. Max Dynamite was second 2 years ago off of 55kg, he's 54kg today.
But it's the most random race ever. Anyone can win on the day.
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12:40
As De Pique has been given a decent shot here by the handicapper. He has bettter form than most of these last year in very good Irish handicaps and has a top class rider on board which is vital in these races. Although he is 12 he is relatively lightly raced and 20/1 is very big.
1 Point win 20/1 Generally
3:00
Vicomte Du Seuil has been running well is small races in France this year. He has some very decent form in the past and looks to have been given a decent shot here of a very light weight.The trainer knows how to win these and 20./1 looks too big.
1 Point win 20/1 365/hill/betf/paddysigpic
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Splash of Ginge is a horse that always looks capable of a big run around here . He has a few very good runs in these races of much higher marks and although he was poor enough first time out this season , I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he improved dramatically here . 50/1 makes the risk worthwhile .
1 pt ew 50/1 5 places generallysigpic
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Originally posted by aidankk View PostSplash of Ginge is a horse that always looks capable of a big run around here . He has a few very good runs in these races of much higher marks and although he was poor enough first time out this season , I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he improved dramatically here . 50/1 makes the risk worthwhile .
1 pt ew 50/1 5 places generallyhttps://www.facebook.com/pages/Mayo-...0391231?ref=hl
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