Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Ramblings of an All Weather wanker.

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    Ramblings of an All Weather wanker.

    A few days to go to the annual jaunt to leafy Lingfield. My initial thoughts :

    Marathon - Godolphin have the top two in the market who both won qualifiers and the fav gets a nice allowance and might be hard to beat . I backed Winterlude and First Mohican before the last qualifier @ 20/1. The race didn't pan out for Winterlude and I think a better performance will be seen on Friday with a truly run race guaranteed. My initial reaction was first mohican got the run of the race but having watched again since I liked the way he pulled out a bit more when challenged by the Johnston Horse. He was travelling as well as the winner to the last bend in last years renewal and got no run up the straight. I will have a few quid more on at around 14/1.

    Fillies and Mares -- I backed Realtra after winning the Qualifier in France . She has since been well beaten twice on turf in Dubai by fav for this race Mufri ha , clinging to the hope that the return to the sand might see a turn around in fortunes. Kevin Ryan has been bullish about Ashadihan and its hard to see the winner not coming from these three group race winners. At bigger odds Volunteer point who won at the meeting last year might be worth a place punt on the day.

    Sprint-- I asked for a price on Encor d'or in my local PP when he came from miles back to win going away at Chelmsford on seas debut over 5f, They were going 33/1 bar at the time and the manager told me that when he said I was a regular that the odds compiler said best not to give me a price as he wouldn't be running in it. looked like good advice when he flopped on his next few starts but he then went and won a decent race at Lingfield despite clearly not handling the track. He is 14/1 now and it would be very painful if he won.

    I have backed pretend at 4/1, he hasn't been at his best on his last two runs but granted a good draw and a bit more luck in running I fancy him to win. Lancelot du lac was only worn down late by two time champion Alben Star last year and has been running well all year but he always seems to find one too good in this. Kinberella was impressive on his first start for Fahey and rates a big Danger. At the bigger prices Boom the groom at 20/1 looks a bit of value.

    Do the other 3 tomorrow.

    #2
    Mile -- There has been plenty of support for the french qualifier Qurbaan and is hard to weigh up. Ennaadd comes into it unbeaten and very impressive in all his wins , a similar profile to his stablemate Haalick last year who got turned over at short odds. He could win on the bridle but I am keen on Keystroke. He will need a bit of luck in running but the 7/1 with PP looks great EW value. Steel train will also get a small few quid ew if he runs.

    3YO -- Second thought didn't look completely comfortable around Lingfields' tight turns last time but still managed to win . The drop back to 6 might not be in his favour but his class should see him trough. I have him in doubles and trebles @ 6/4 and with a half decent draw I could see him going off odds on . Probably back Tomily w/o the fav as the return to Lingfield should suit.

    Easter classic -- Convey was as big as 4/1 at the weekend and I had a few quid on, 11/4 at the moment and another who if he gets a good draw could go off a lot shorter. Being gelded seems to have relieved him of a few quirks and has Moore in the saddle. I think the 11/1 Elbereth with Boyles is way too big . He must have had a problem or two as his trainer only had him ready to run in time for the last qualifier in Dundalk, he won that on his first run for 5 months and has plenty of scope for improvement.

    48hr Declarations at 11 am tomorrow.

    Comment


      #3
      Bad draws for all my stronger fancies, back to the drawing board.

      Comment


        #4
        Realtra -- Drawn 12/12
        Pretend -- Drawn 12/12
        Keystroke -- Drawn 12/12

        F.M.L. But nothing can be done about it now. At least Convey got a decent draw.

        Even the opening apprentice race is tasty little contest. Darren Bunyan sends over Grey Danube (sadly the only Irish runner on the card) and Charles Molson (My punting highlight of the AW season) turns out after a long break. Plenty of in form horses line up with most of them needing a career best to win . Charles Molson had some decent horses behind him and if he is fit would take some beating even from stall 11. War glory is one of the few who has won off their current mark and ran well after a break last week.

        Some better informed opinions than mine below;

        Simon Mapletoft analyses every race on Finals Day on Good Friday, live on Sky Sports Racing, where the best performers of the winter will compete for £1 million.



        From Galopin Des Champs to Teahupoo, Grey Dawning and Majborough, Simon Rowlands analyses the best of the final two days of the Cheltenham Festival.

        Comment


          #5
          Was looking at the card there and thought Charles Molson was a big price myself..best of luck and thanks for the insight. Just one question for ya... Why is Pinzolo such a big price? He's likely going to front run will this play into the strengths of others in the field?.. is he unlikely to stay? Would you give him any chance? Thanks again, enjoyed the ramblings.
          Jayzus, Sheila! I forgot me feckin' trousers

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by Pat Mustard View Post
            Was looking at the card there and thought Charles Molson was a big price myself..best of luck and thanks for the insight. Just one question for ya... Why is Pinzolo such a big price? He's likely going to front run will this play into the strengths of others in the field?.. is he unlikely to stay? Would you give him any chance? Thanks again, enjoyed the ramblings.
            He has only ran twice over 2 miles and the bare form of his only try over C&D would certainly be good enough to win this as he was giving weight to the horses that finished 2nd and 3rd in the final last year but that was in a small field in a muddling race. Something obviously went wrong next time. He likes to lead and will be taken on for it by at least Watersmeet and John Reel. He is the highest rated in it off the back of a couple of 12f wins but its a wide open race if Natural scenery doesn't handle the track ( beaten fav twice here in smallish fields) a case could be made for any of the others rated 100+. I thought he might take on convey again in the 12f race so his shrewd trainer must think he has a better chance here.
            Last edited by horatio1; 13-04-17, 00:00.

            Comment


              #7
              Few of my own picks.
              Going with Cohesion(7s) and Petite Jack (14s) in the Marathon both each way.

              Fillies and mares race hard to look outside the top 3 personally and im on Ashidihan(5/2).

              Sprint Championship have gone with Kimberella my one and only ante post bet of the metting, will also have a small bet on the Verne Castle(25s) and Boom the Groom(20s) each way.

              Mile Champioship. Ennaadd(7/4) the favourite highest rated horse and looking for 5 in a row, may have an each way bet on My Target(7s) tomorrow depending on how the day is going.

              3year old race. Second Thought (5/4) and Dubai One (6s)

              Easter Classic. Not had a bet on the race yet and more than likely will just sit back and watch but the horse id be keen on is Absolute Blast(4s)

              Comment


                #8
                Bets so far:

                2 pt E.W. Patent Realtra 5/1 / Pretend 9/2 / Keystroke 5/1 More or less dead money.
                1 pt E.W. First Mohican 20/1 / Winterlude 20.1 Hopeful more than confident
                5pt Doubles and trebles Mufri Ha 7/4 / Second thought 6/4 / Convey 7/2
                2 pt Win Convey 4/1
                2 pt EW Keystroke 7/1
                1 pt EW Elbereth 11/1
                .5 pt Lucky 15 First Mohican 14/1 / Elbereth 11/1 / Steel Train 25/1 / Tomily 7/1

                Intended bets tomorrow:

                13:40 2 pt win War Glory , 1 pt EW Charles Molson , .5 pt EW Grey Danube
                14:10 2 pt win Prince of Arran
                14:40 1 pt Place Volunteer Point
                15:10 1 pt place Boom the groom
                15:40 1 pt place Steel train

                Spoke to a few lads across the pond today. one was very sweet on Prince of Arran in the Marathon . I am told that they can't see Second Thought being beaten and that the plan with Mufri Ha having been drawn in 1 will probably be to try and make the running. I think that greatly enhances Ashadihans prospects but I will be hoping Mufri Ha can see it out as I know a few connected with it .

                I was also told to back Robert Edderys in the 16:00 at Bath tomorrow and John Oxx's in the first at Cork Saturday.

                Apart from the apprentice race and the few small place bets I have enough invested already so intend on keeping to a few small forecasts and tricasts tomorrow but if I have nothing rolling onto them Second thought and Convey will become the get out jobs.

                Happy punting.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Good to see the get out jobs came good for you in the end.

                  Punting aside, can never get behind this all weather championship day from an entertainment pov. It's like getting excited for a division 3 league final between Louth and Tipperary, yeah it's finals day but it's all still a bit shit.
                  Profit before people.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                    Good to see the get out jobs came good for you in the end.

                    Punting aside, can never get behind this all weather championship day from an entertainment pov. It's like getting excited for a division 3 league final between Louth and Tipperary, yeah it's finals day but it's all still a bit shit.
                    All weather finals day is still in its early days and is rapidly improving each year with greater support from the bigger stables due to the ever increasing prize pool.
                    Then again like most things in life what one person enjoys the next May not, each to their own and all that.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by Hooch View Post
                      All weather finals day is still in its early days and is rapidly improving each year with greater support from the bigger stables due to the ever increasing prize pool.
                      Then again like most things in life what one person enjoys the next May not, each to their own and all that.
                      The big stables have always supported all weather, but tends to be the dregs of those stables that run through the winter.

                      You'd get better standard racing most weekends in Ireland during the summer than all weather championship day. Like the highest rated horse to run today was 113. There's a 115 horse running at Cork tomorrow in a below average standard card.
                      Last edited by The Situation; 14-04-17, 18:07.
                      Profit before people.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                        Good to see the get out jobs came good for you in the end.

                        Punting aside, can never get behind this all weather championship day from an entertainment pov. It's like getting excited for a division 3 league final between Louth and Tipperary, yeah it's finals day but it's all still a bit shit.
                        10 mins typing. A response then dropped phone on the floor! It started badly with war glory going down by a nose to a horse that won me a few quid during the year. After 3 profitable years there was always going to be a year and this was it.

                        Realtra saved me backing on a couple of races and spent most the day drinking. Keystroke would have been nice but really wanted Mufri ha to win for Patsy but missed the break and nothing went right. He is a nordy hothead and wasn't looking forward to meeting him after it but when he said we were popping in to see George Baker in hospital and it wasn't the end of the world I was quite relieved.

                        It got to the last two races and I decided to have a few quid ew on the bigger fancies rather than lumping on the favs. I understand what you're saying and watching on the TV must look like any other decent AW day but the buzz around the track and town is fantastic.

                        Anyway onto Brighton or Kempton or pub tomorrow.

                        Comment

                        Working...
                        X