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100nl 6max - turning bluff catcher into bluff

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    100nl 6max - turning bluff catcher into bluff

    opponent stats 21/17/36 over 1.5k hands

    his cb/tb/rbet percentage is 72/50/80, aggression by street is 41/31/32. He is capable of folding to flop raises and his went to showdown is 27%

    my only physical read on him in single raised pots is that he triple barrel stabs 3 streets with TPTK in position

    So my question here is, as I put him on a Top pair type hand, is my range of hands that beat him too narrow that I can't force him to fold top pair. Is this just fancy play syndrome from me? And does anyone like my line here?


    $0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
    5 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

    Stacks:
    UTG ($100)
    CO ($105.19)
    BTN ($97)
    SB ($50.64)
    Hero (BB) ($112.10)

    Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 5 players) Hero is BB 7:heart: 7:spade:
    1 fold, CO raises to $3, 1 fold, SB calls $2.50, Hero calls $2

    Flop: Q:heart: 4:spade: 4:club: ($9, 3 players)
    SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets $6, SB folds, Hero calls $6

    Turn: 6:diamond: ($21, 2 players)
    Hero checks, CO bets $14, Hero calls $14

    River: 3:diamond: ($49, 2 players)
    Hero checks, CO bets $28, Hero goes all-in $89.10, CO goes all-in $54.19
    Last edited by RBBlogger; 03-09-11, 17:28.

    #2
    Don't like it mainly due to board being paired and there not really being any draws out there. In general I do think you are better off raising with bluff catchers than calling though. So difficult to call a river raise with a non nut hands.

    Comment


      #3
      You're not repping much at all. 44, 66 and a4s are only value hands I can think of you might play like this. I think it will be hard to get him to lay down tp.

      I would usually fold turn, and against some fold flop.
      Last edited by ikilldurrr1; 03-09-11, 17:49. Reason: +a4s too

      Comment


        #4
        id ocassionally have 54ss in this spot too, but yeah agreed Im not repping much there.. anyways he called after a while with KK

        Comment


          #5
          You don't rep a wholelot of combos.

          Comment


            #6
            Don't hate the riv shove as much as everyone else, but the turn call seems real bad, if not the flop call.

            Sure you don't rep too much, but nobody ever shoves there.
            Foldaramus et foldarabimus

            Comment


              #7
              I might like it if villains range wasn't so highly polarised and we weren't offering him such a good price. It can be better to raise than to call when you feel your opponent may be bluffing, but this is a bad spot to try it. There are no medium strength hands in his range but we need to be able to fold out hands we beat to make it worthwhile. The value side of his range consists of nothing but strong made hands and trying to make some of that range fold for over 3:1 isn't really wise.
              "c'est en faisant n'importe quoi qu'on devient n'importe qui"

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by TommyGunne View Post
                Don't hate the riv shove as much as everyone else, but the turn call seems real bad, if not the flop call.

                Sure you don't rep too much, but nobody ever shoves there.
                Reasoning? Most players are c-betting 100% of their range on this board.

                Comment


                  #9
                  There are lots of bad turn cards. It's hard to get to the river and we have a very slim chance of improving. And we are oop of course. Folding flop is fine imo against a lot of opponents.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    If you're gonna give up every time you don't hit a set should just fold pre-flop no, particularly against LP raisers?

                    Comment


                      #11
                      I'm not giving up every time I miss a set of course. I just like to avoid putting myself in tough spots on turns and rivers. He is betting into 2 players which strengthens his range too.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by Winning! View Post
                        It can be better to raise than to call when you feel your opponent may be bluffing,
                        This confused me, care to explain your logic?

                        Oh and folding pre is not awful. oop against this guy who will make it super tough for us to make correct decisions.
                        Last edited by TheSnapper; 08-10-11, 01:18.
                        "Being wrong is erroneously associated with failure, when, in fact, to be proven wrong should be celebrated, for it elevates someone to a new level of understanding."

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by TheSnapper View Post
                          Oh and folding pre is not awful. oop against this guy who will make it super tough for us to make correct decisions.
                          Do not underestimate just how good pocket pairs are in this game. Calling pre and folding every time we miss a set is a +EV play. It's not the most +EV play, but it is +EV. Not calling here is bad.
                          Last edited by AndyFatBastard; 08-10-11, 08:24.
                          "I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by AndyFatBastard View Post
                            Do not underestimate just how good pocket pairs are in this game. Calling pre and folding every time we miss a set is a +EV play. It's not the most +EV play, but it is +EV. Not calling here is bad.
                            It is far from that simple.
                            You need to get paid when you hit a set too. Making a set is not enough.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by Winning! View Post
                              It can be better to raise than to call when you feel your opponent may be bluffing,
                              Originally posted by TheSnapper View Post
                              This confused me, care to explain your logic?
                              Because your opponent could be bluffing with a better hand basically

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Originally posted by The Hurricane View Post
                                Because your opponent could be bluffing with a better hand basically
                                He will also have to fold his entire thin value range and a lot of strong non nut hands.

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by fuzzbox View Post
                                  It is far from that simple.
                                  You need to get paid when you hit a set too. Making a set is not enough.
                                  Even including your odds of losing a big pot or winning a small pot, it is still +EV to call.
                                  "I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by AndyFatBastard View Post
                                    Even including your odds of losing a big pot or winning a small pot, it is still +EV to call.
                                    How so?

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by fuzzbox View Post
                                      How so?
                                      I did a bit of HEM filter work. Over ~400,000 hands I'm currently winning at ~1800bb/100 in hands where I flop a set. This happens about 14% of the time, and I expect to win about $18 each time it does. Each time we miss and fold we lose $2. So our EV is:

                                      86% of -$2 = -$1.72
                                      plus
                                      14% of $18 = +$2.52

                                      Giving an EV of +$1.80.
                                      "I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by AndyFatBastard View Post
                                        I did a bit of HEM filter work. Over ~400,000 hands I'm currently winning at ~1800bb/100 in hands where I flop a set. This happens about 14% of the time, and I expect to win about $18 each time it does. Each time we miss and fold we lose $2. So our EV is:

                                        86% of -$2 = -$1.72
                                        plus
                                        14% of $18 = +$2.52

                                        Giving an EV of +$1.80.
                                        What's it like oop vs a lp raiser though?

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by AndyFatBastard View Post
                                          I did a bit of HEM filter work. Over ~400,000 hands I'm currently winning at ~1800bb/100 in hands where I flop a set. This happens about 14% of the time, and I expect to win about $18 each time it does. Each time we miss and fold we lose $2. So our EV is:

                                          86% of -$2 = -$1.72
                                          plus
                                          14% of $18 = +$2.52

                                          Giving an EV of +$1.80.
                                          Just because you win at that rate does not mean that it is fact that it is +EV for (a) everybody, (b) this particular situation, (c) all situations.

                                          It is true, of course, that you need to win a lot when you flop a set to make up for the times that you miss and check/fold. The trick that makes it a +EV play is that you have to get paid often when you flop a set.

                                          If you consistently call with pairs preflop and (a) fold when you miss and (b) do not get paid on your sets, then it is not a +EV play.

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
                                            What's it like oop vs a lp raiser though?
                                            In SB or BB vs CO or BTN opener, 1436bb/100. This still gives an EV of +$0.26, although sample size is becoming an issue. At this point my back-of-a-napkin 14% number becomes important. I believe it's higher than that. I'll look it up.

                                            @Fuzzbox: What I'm saying is that even the dumbest of rock-brained fish makes money in hands where they flop a set over the long term.
                                            Last edited by AndyFatBastard; 11-10-11, 12:38.
                                            "I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Of course everybody makes money when they flop a set. Thats not the question.
                                              The question is do they make enough money to pay for all the times they call and then chk/fold?

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                The thing is you should be playing back with pocket pairs in Late postion v BB spots where you call in the bb.

                                                If Late position aggressive reg opens and you call in the bb w 2h2d, the flop is 7s 4d 3d,

                                                you should be check raising these boards against regs who cbet too much. You can continue on any diamond, any Ace, any 2 or 5 turn. This puts tons of pressure on your opponent and make you increasingly difficult to play against.

                                                You can give up on the river unimproved but you should probably shove river if the turn brings an Ace as this is a major part of your x/r range on these type of boards.

                                                The net effect of this is they will cb less and will want to go to showdown where your pocket pairs will be good the majority of the time, thus making your life easier when you dont flop a set..

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  Flop call is standard and fine. If you aren't going to call a flop bet on a texture where he is C-betting 100% of his range then clearly you are just playing for set value.. I think this is going to be pretty close to break even given that we have a 3 way pot. If you were in sb here then pre flop is a fold if you are taking the above approach though - ie if we didn't know that it was going to be a multiway pot and we weren't closing the action. However, in this hand I think calling to set mine is going to be fine - just probably sub optimal. It's made better by the fact that the sb is possibly a weaker player indicated by his 50bb stack.

                                                  Turn call is slightly spewy I would guess, although his turn c-b is relatively high I don't think his bluffing frequency is gonna be very high on that card.

                                                  As was mentioned earlier in the thread you basically rep A4s, 44 and 66 for like 6 combos or so. I don't think he would perceive 45 or something to be in your range too often? Although we obv have no clue how you play... if you have 1.5k hand son him then he has 1.5k on you too so perhaps if you play loose from sb then you rep enough to fold him off AQ

                                                  Comment


                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by RBBlogger View Post
                                                    The thing is you should be playing back with pocket pairs in Late postion v BB spots where you call in the bb.

                                                    If Late position aggressive reg opens and you call in the bb w 2h2d, the flop is 7s 4d 3d,

                                                    you should be check raising these boards against regs who cbet too much. You can continue on any diamond, any Ace, any 2 or 5 turn.
                                                    Your much better off bluff-raising with hands where you have some equity. The main reason we call with pocket pairs HU is so we have sets in our raising range on the flop. This doesn't mean that our bluff-raising range should be missed sets though. When you flop an underpair, your equity vs a continuing range is brutal. I'd much rather raise with something like As8s.

                                                    Comment


                                                      #27
                                                      I'd much rather raise with something like As8s.
                                                      I agree. Against a polarised cbetter, I dont mind bluff raising with pocket pairs on low boards, but against depolarised cbetters, then You defo need some extra equity with hands like A8ss, or JTss

                                                      Comment

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