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    We actually have an old money unit on a 9/1 shot this evening as well that I forgot about when I redid the BR. Works out as 0.46 new units.

    Initial Bank: 62 units
    Current Bank: 83 units
    Profit: 21 units

    At Risk: 12.46 units

    Bets In Play:
    Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 9/4)
    Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 2/1)
    In-running bet (1.4 units @ 16/11)
    In-running bet (0.46 units @ 9/1)
    Ulster +3 vs Edinburgh (3 units @ 10/11)
    Northampton -6 vs Harlequins (3 units @ 10/11)
    Leinster -0 vs Cardiff Blues (4 units @ 10/11)

    Comment


      Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.


      Comment


        In-running bet (0.46 units @ 9/1) - no dice
        Ulster +3 vs Edinburgh (3 units @ 10/11) - EZ game, wanted to max bet this but I lost my nerve tbh
        Northampton -6 vs Harlequins (3 units @ 10/11) - EZ game

        Total profit 5.45 units

        Initial Bank: 62 units
        Current Bank: 94.45 units
        Profit: 32.45 units

        At Risk: 6.1 units

        Bets In Play:
        Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 9/4)
        Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 2/1)
        In-running bet (1.4 units @ 16/11)
        Leinster -0 vs Cardiff Blues (4 units @ 10/11)

        Comment


          BR update
          Deposited 2 more units

          Initial Bank: 64 units
          Current Bank: 96.45 units
          Profit: 32.45 units

          At Risk: 6.1 units

          Bets In Play:
          Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 9/4)
          Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 2/1)
          In-running bet (1.4 units @ 16/11)
          Leinster -0 vs Cardiff Blues (4 units @ 10/11)

          Comment


            Leinster -0 vs Cardiff Blues (4 units @ 10/11) - win
            Scarlets -10 vs Glasgow (2 units @ 10/11) - loss

            1.63 units profit, 5.63 units total returned.

            Initial Bank: 64 units
            Current Bank: 102.08 units
            Profit: 38.08 units

            At Risk: 2.1 units

            Bets In Play:
            Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 9/4)
            Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 2/1)
            In-running bet (1.4 units @ 16/11)

            Comment


              Made a handy 1.2 units on Denver Pitt in the Nfl last night , got in a good position on betfair


              Initial Bank: 64 units
              Current Bank: 104.28 units
              Profit: 39.28 units


              At Risk: 2.1 units

              Bets In Play:
              Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 9/4)
              Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 2/1)
              In-running bet (1.4 units @ 16/11)

              Comment


                BR update

                Initial Bank: 64 units
                Current Bank: 105.7 units
                Profit: 41.7 units


                At Risk: 2.1 units

                Bets In Play:
                Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 9/4)
                Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 2/1)
                In-running bet (1.4 units @ 16/11)

                Comment


                  [QUOTE=trytime;471176]Made a handy 1.2 units on Denver Pitt in the Nfl last night , got in a good position on betfair


                  what was the position?
                  did you trade out at a good price or just for tha craic?


                  ps - like ulster also!
                  GAA News Website

                  Comment


                    We were on Skype while watching it and it was still something like 6/4 against Denver after their second TD with Roethelsahfbdbsker clearly injured which we just thought seemed a bit mad.

                    If I recall correctly Denver had the ball in field goal range at the time as well.

                    We stuck some money on and the price dropped pretty soon after so we laid off.

                    Re: Ulster we've a decently sized bet on, we've also got a bit on Leinster -8 and Scarlets at scratch.

                    Comment


                      why o why you a persist with les Scarlets?

                      Northhampton are gonna scare the bollix off yee.

                      Scarlets weakness is up front, Northhampton's overwhelming power is in their front 3. Munster showed that beating Scarlets is just a case of keeping the ball in the tight, and not letting their backs near it. Northhampton are absolutely lethal at this kind of game.

                      Comment


                        Well to be fair we're 1-2 with our Scarlets bets so far so its not like they've cost us a whole lot.
                        You are right about NH having the stronger front 3 and they employed the tactic of tight play with ruck and maul well against Quins last weekend.
                        However looking at the context of the game: NH's backs are against the wall and will probably have to get 9 points from the last 2 games if they want to have any realistic chance of qualifying. So its more likely that they look to get a BP here in this game rather than against Munster(even though they have HA for that game). This means that as the clock ticks NH will have to throw caution to the wind more and the game could open up. This will obviously suit Scarlets who havnt been leaking too many tries(joint lowest with munster with only 6 tries conceded) themselves and are a great loose play open team. Also scarlets will not have the same "gun to the head" motivation going on for them, granted they too need to get results in their last two games but have the 2 wins under their belt so far that gives them a more realistic outlook to get results for these two games

                        Priestlands performance in the recent HCup games were poor enough, missing easy kicks and making poor mistakes which were unlike him. He seemed to have performed much better last week against Glasgow.

                        Also worth mentioning that return of George North for HCup rugby since the last NH game is a big factor too. He has match time under his belt coming back into this after that niggling injury and its hard not to expect a quality performance from him.
                        Weather expected to stay dry too with not much wind, again this helps scarlets more than NH if they want a tight game.

                        Home advantage is also a big factor for this game and really helped us pull the trigger on the bet. HA is more of an advantage in HCup than the domestic leagues and was a big swinger on the outcome here. So couple that with the difference in motivation and the fact that NH could be forced to loosen their game we reckon Scarlets should be between -3.5 and -4. Scr seems good value here.
                        Last edited by trytime; 12-01-12, 18:40.

                        Comment


                          Just going to add in our picks for the weekend so far, Alan's pretty busy so dunno if he's gonna get a chance to write up the Leinster and Ulster games, the explanation of the Scarlets bet is more or less what he's written above.

                          Anyways:

                          Leinster -8 vs Glasgow Warriors (3 units @ 10/11)
                          Llanellalleli Scarlets scratch vs Northampton (3 units @ 10/11)
                          Ulster scratch vs Leicester Tigers (4 units @ 10/11)

                          Initial Bank: 64 units
                          Current Bank: 95.7 units
                          Profit: 31.7 units

                          At Risk: 12.1 units

                          Bets In Play:
                          Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 9/4)
                          Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 2/1)
                          In-running bet (1.4 units @ 16/11)
                          Leinster -8 vs Glasgow Warriors (3 units @ 10/11)
                          Llanellalleli Scarlets scratch vs Northampton (3 units @ 10/11)
                          Ulster scratch vs Leicester Tigers (4 units @ 10/11)

                          Comment


                            We've added Harlequins -8 to the mix for two units.

                            Initial Bank: 64 units
                            Current Bank: 93.7 units
                            Profit: 29.7 units

                            At Risk: 14.1 units

                            Bets In Play:
                            Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 9/4)
                            Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 2/1)
                            In-running bet (1.4 units @ 16/11)
                            Leinster -8 vs Glasgow Warriors (3 units @ 10/11)
                            Llanellalleli Scarlets scratch vs Northampton (3 units @ 10/11)
                            Ulster scratch vs Leicester Tigers (4 units @ 10/11)
                            Harlequins -8 vs Gloucester (2 units @ 10/11)

                            Comment


                              Betfred have been having a Bet of the Day promotion all week, kept missing it but got on it last night where they augmented Barca's price vs Osasuna from 2/5 out to evens.

                              Max bet was lolsmall unfortunately so only made us 0.4 units, but it's all money.

                              Initial Bank: 64 units
                              Current Bank: 94.1 units
                              Profit: 24.1 units

                              At Risk: 14.1 units

                              Bets In Play:
                              Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 9/4)
                              Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 2/1)
                              In-running bet (1.4 units @ 16/11)
                              Leinster -8 vs Glasgow Warriors (3 units @ 10/11)
                              Llanellalleli Scarlets scratch vs Northampton (3 units @ 10/11)
                              Ulster scratch vs Leicester Tigers (4 units @ 10/11)
                              Harlequins -8 vs Gloucester (2 units @ 10/11)

                              Comment


                                We've also backed out of the Leinster bet fwiw.

                                Comment


                                  Ulster scratch vs Leicester Tigers (4 units @ 10/11) - win

                                  Not a bad start. We had some bets on the Racing game as well, total win for the night 2.46 units.

                                  Initial Bank: 64 units
                                  Current Bank: 100.56 units
                                  Profit: 36.56 units

                                  At Risk: 10.1 units

                                  Bets In Play:
                                  Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 9/4)
                                  Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 2/1)
                                  In-running bet (1.4 units @ 16/11)
                                  Leinster -8 vs Glasgow Warriors (3 units @ 10/11)
                                  Llanellalleli Scarlets scratch vs Northampton (3 units @ 10/11)
                                  Harlequins -8 vs Gloucester (2 units @ 10/11)

                                  Comment


                                    We took Toulouse -26 as well for two units.

                                    Initial Bank: 64 units
                                    Current Bank: 100.56 units
                                    Profit: 36.56 units

                                    At Risk: 10.1 units

                                    Bets In Play:
                                    Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 9/4)
                                    Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 2/1)
                                    In-running bet (1.4 units @ 16/11)
                                    Glasgow Warriors +9 vs Leinster (1 units @ 10/11)
                                    Llanellalleli Scarlets scratch vs Northampton (3 units @ 10/11)
                                    Harlequins -8 vs Gloucester (2 units @ 10/11)
                                    Toulouse (-26) vs Connacht (2 units @ 10/11)

                                    Comment


                                      Saracens -6 vs Biarritz (2 units @ 10/11)

                                      Even accounting Saracens a reduced home advantage due to their travelling to South Africa for a training camp we think the line at 6 points is off in this one.

                                      Saracens are missing Brit at hooker which is a bit of a loss considering he's up there with the best hookers in the NH but the front row of Gill, Smit and Nieto they're sending out is still more than competent.

                                      The reduced quality of lineout ball due to Brit's absence will be mitigated by the fact that Harinordoquy is only fit enough to make the Biarritz bench, and his loss to the Biarritz starting 15 is pretty tough to overrate.

                                      Overall, we would have made this line close to ten points with the above factored in (amongst other things obv), and it's set at 7 points with most books, so we felt the 6 points being offered by Ladbrokes was worth a punt.

                                      Initial Bank: 64 units
                                      Current Bank: 98.56 units
                                      Profit: 34.56 units

                                      At Risk: 12.1 units

                                      Bets In Play:
                                      Scarlets to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 9/4)
                                      Biarritz to win HEC Group (0.35 units @ 2/1)
                                      In-running bet (1.4 units @ 16/11)
                                      Glasgow Warriors +9 vs Leinster (1 units @ 10/11)
                                      Llanellalleli Scarlets scratch vs Northampton (3 units @ 10/11)
                                      Harlequins -8 vs Gloucester (2 units @ 10/11)
                                      Toulouse (-26) vs Connacht (2 units @ 10/11)
                                      Saracens -6 vs Biarritz (2 units @ 10/11)

                                      Comment


                                        Had our first real bad weekend results-wise the weekend just gone.

                                        First of all, the two bets that have been ongoing for ages about Scarlets and Biarritz to win their groups are dead as far as I can see, for a loss of 0.7 units combined. I think the reasoning for those bets wasn't too bad, and in any case they were put on when we were really just getting started so if they weren't the sharpest plays in the world that's probably to be expected.

                                        As for this weekend's games, a quick run through the manner of our losses would seem to suggest that there's no need for us to tear up the system just yet.

                                        Scarlets were looking very comfortable at half-time in their game, and in spite of a really poor second half performance - along with an absolutely abject showing from Alain Rolland - still had ample chances to win the game. The final scoreline is a bit deceptive as the Saints ran in a seven pointer at the death when Foden intercepted a pass on his on five metre line with Scarlets looking to get a try to tie it up.

                                        The only thing I'd really say about the game in terms of assessing future bets is that when the game was there to be won and a bit of brains and nous were needed the Scarlets were found wanting. Priestland got worse as the game went on, while Stephen Jones who you would expect to come in and run the play with a bit of intelligence was a bit of a headless chicken, coughing up a couple of turnovers in great positions with bizarre pick and go attempts when spreading the ball wide was clearly the right move.

                                        The Quins vs Gloucester game, what can you say. Nick Evans missing two kicks straight in front of the posts and a third very makable one to go along with it isn't really something you can legislate for. Any one of those kicks going over would have been enough to push the winning margin out to cover, realistically he'd be expecting to make all three pretty much in his sleep. Variance gonna vary.

                                        Sarries vs Biarritz was another bit of a sickener, again something like Stringer having a box kick blocked down for a gift of a try isn't really very easy to quantify when your handicapping a game. Sarries were quite comfortable at that point, Stringer's kick goes out on the full like they usually do instead of being blocked and I think we cover pretty easily.

                                        We've run pretty well up to now, and I think if we would have had any of those losses above on an otherwise profitable weekend we'd be just shrugging our shoulders and saying they were fine bets that just didn't fall our way, but all coming together I suppose it makes you a bit more thoughtful about it. Regression to the mean is to be expected I suppose!

                                        Looks like the total hit to the BR from before the weekend is only 5.23 units, so not the end of the world.

                                        Roll on next weekend.

                                        Initial Bank: 64 units
                                        Current Bank: 100.47 units
                                        Profit: 36.47 units

                                        At Risk: 1.4 units

                                        Bets In Play:
                                        In-running bet (1.4 units @ 16/11)
                                        Last edited by Keane; 16-01-12, 10:55.

                                        Comment


                                          Back on the wagon.

                                          Betfred's "Bet of the Day" for today is both teams to score in tonight's game between Man City and Wigan. Price augmented from 5/6 to 6/4.

                                          Initial Bank: 64 units
                                          Current Bank: 100.07 units
                                          Profit: 36.07 units

                                          At Risk: 1.8 units

                                          Bets In Play:
                                          In-running bet (1.4 units @ 16/11)
                                          Wigan vs Man City - both teams to score (0.4 units @ 6/4)

                                          Comment


                                            Wigan vs Man City - both teams to score (0.4 units @ 6/4) - loss

                                            Initial Bank: 64 units
                                            Current Bank: 100.07 units
                                            Profit: 36.07 units

                                            At Risk: 1.4 units

                                            Bets In Play:
                                            In-running bet (1.4 units @ 16/11)

                                            Comment


                                              After watching most of last weeks games rugby games besides Ulster hammering Leicester the heavy pitches seemed to bring teams closer together.

                                              What i mean is a grey hound is no use running in a swamp as his skinny legs will sink.

                                              Like leinster were stifled in Glasgow a shitty heavy pitch is a great leveller for the less skilled team imo maybe something to think about in betting.

                                              Personally going to wait till the weather improves pitches dry outa bit before i punt again unless soem serious percieved value comes along

                                              Comment


                                                Originally posted by SICKPUPPY View Post
                                                After watching most of last weeks games rugby games besides Ulster hammering Leicester the heavy pitches seemed to bring teams closer together.

                                                What i mean is a grey hound is no use running in a swamp as his skinny legs will sink.

                                                Like leinster were stifled in Glasgow a shitty heavy pitch is a great leveller for the less skilled team imo maybe something to think about in betting.

                                                Personally going to wait till the weather improves pitches dry outa bit before i punt again unless soem serious percieved value comes along
                                                When we've been handicapping games we always check on the weather but pitch conditions is something that didn't really cross our mind, so fair point.

                                                You could definitely see a few of the pitches over the weekend looked fairly heavy.

                                                Comment


                                                  Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                  When we've been handicapping games we always check on the weather but pitch conditions is something that didn't really cross our mind, so fair point.

                                                  You could definitely see a few of the pitches over the weekend looked fairly heavy.
                                                  Well a heavy pitch will usually favour the better heavy pack too but scrum advantages can be negated by constant slipping in the muck see Toulouse Harlequins prime example.

                                                  Toulouse had dominant scrum but pitch was in ribbons so couldnt get concentrated drives on.

                                                  My point the more you know about everything the better the edge i think

                                                  Comment


                                                    Yep, can only help. TY for the tip.

                                                    Comment


                                                      Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                      Yep, can only help. TY for the tip.
                                                      I was just thinking of the last match i played we were playing the league leaders unbeaten
                                                      very fast and way more skillfull than us on a dry day they would have ran us ragged.

                                                      The pitch was wet and heavy and that negated there skill with 20 mins left was 10 a piece
                                                      when i heroically broke my leg and dislocated my ankle got stuck in muck for match to be abandoned in 14 games only points they dropped.

                                                      Anything that might help should be mentioned imo like genuinely its us againest the bookies.

                                                      Comment


                                                        see that the saints/munster match is on in the mk,all 22,000 tickets are sold out,also see that the under 18s training is postponed due to frozen pitches at Franklin's Gardens.dont know if there is under ground heating in the mk,but wouldnt think they'll be playing on a bog,tho the forecast is for temps of 5-9 degrees as the week goes on
                                                        Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                        Comment


                                                          Little bits of info like that are very useful, thanks a lot amber.

                                                          Comment


                                                            How yee lads any thoughts for the weekend.
                                                            I really like the look of Toulouse -5pts v Gloucester
                                                            The best team in the competitions history is packed with power pace and sheer quality.

                                                            Toulouse need at leasta draw to qualify Gloucester cannot even qualify for the amlin only pride at stake.
                                                            Beauxis at 10 had been supreme with the boot lately and id expect the Toulouse pack to dominate the scrums and breakdown.

                                                            They have gone for a 5 2 forwards to backs split so there intentions are clear outmuscle and over power the Gloucester 8.
                                                            There backline is not to shabby either full of match winners and seasoned internationals
                                                            Clerc ruiner if irish dreams only makes the bench

                                                            The Gloucester back three has plenty of pace and guile but think they will be starved of the ball by a Toulose side who will put in a big performance hopefully.
                                                            Last edited by Guest; 19-01-12, 22:40.

                                                            Comment


                                                              Yeah didn't get a chance to post it yet but we've got four units on that. It was evens with VC earlier which is pretty sweet if it's still there.

                                                              Comment


                                                                I'd agree on Toulouse, can't understand the low line on that? I think Ulster will go all out and could be as close as bp territory even, so might take on the 12pt mark on PP. Connacht are +9 on PP, I think they're going to make a huge effort in their last Heineken game for a while at home..Quins were shaky enough in the Gloucester game last week and although I expect them to scrape it, I think that Connacht are worth a gamble here @10/11 as part of a treble or mongrel yankee.
                                                                I'm also having a cut off a good few Gaelic matches. UCC are 4/5 away to Tipp in the McGrath cup..this is their 3rd game in 7 days but most of them are flying fit so won't affect them too much. I expect them to have too much up front for Tipp.
                                                                "Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC

                                                                Comment


                                                                  Originally posted by ciarraithuaidh View Post
                                                                  I'd agree on Toulouse, can't understand the low line on that? I think Ulster will go all out and could be as close as bp territory even, so might take on the 12pt mark on PP. Connacht are +9 on PP, I think they're going to make a huge effort in their last Heineken game for a while at home..Quins were shaky enough in the Gloucester game last week and although I expect them to scrape it, I think that Connacht are worth a gamble here @10/11 as part of a treble or mongrel yankee.
                                                                  I'm also having a cut off a good few Gaelic matches. UCC are 4/5 away to Tipp in the McGrath cup..this is their 3rd game in 7 days but most of them are flying fit so won't affect them too much. I expect them to have too much up front for Tipp.
                                                                  The connacht half backs are god awful as is vainikolo on the wing
                                                                  O connor missing in the backrow is another blow to Conn Quinns very strong here.
                                                                  If that Quinns backline get plenty of ball with Evans at 10 could be a hiding for Conn who have looked very tired of late.

                                                                  Ulster play like Lions at home and mice away and Clermont is a s tough an away fixture as it comes.
                                                                  I cant see Ulster getting anything from the game Clermont along with Toulouse take the cup seriously and have a very talented team and bench.
                                                                  Ulster failed to get a bonus point away to Leinster who are very ordinary this season.

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    I'm all over the Quins side of the Handicap

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      Originally posted by Emmet View Post
                                                                      I'm all over the Quins side of the Handicap
                                                                      What you mean think Quinns will cover it?
                                                                      hate backing or againest my home province

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        priced it at 16 myself

                                                                        Connacht dead on their feet at this stage. Glorious struggle in the final game, only to concede 1/2 tries in final 20 mins imo.

                                                                        On a side note, got laughed out of the office the other weekend when I suggested Ulster be at least -8 for the game against Leicester.
                                                                        Last edited by Emmet; 20-01-12, 00:06.

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          Originally posted by Emmet View Post
                                                                          priced it at 16 myself
                                                                          P 45 in the post
                                                                          compare the half backs
                                                                          back 3 quinns have lots of quality and really need the win
                                                                          pride can only count for so much

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            Originally posted by SICKPUPPY View Post
                                                                            P 45 in the post
                                                                            compare the half backs
                                                                            back 3 quinns have lots of quality and really need the win
                                                                            pride can only count for so much
                                                                            Are you misunderstanding me? The HC is 9 at the moment, indicating the market believes that Quins are 9 points better than Connacht. I'm pricing it as Quins being 16 points better.

                                                                            I'm all over Quins beating the spread.

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              Originally posted by Emmet View Post
                                                                              Are you misunderstanding me? The HC is 9 at the moment, indicating the market believes that Quins are 9 points better than Connacht. I'm pricing it as Quins being 16 points better.

                                                                              I'm all over Quins beating the spread.
                                                                              No fully understand

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                Meant to say, +11 in the Treviso game looks massive.

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  On the Ulster game, we made the line exactly 11.5, so gonna find it hard to take a position there. Ulster playing really great stuff and have been undervalued for a while IMO, but Clermont are the real deal and so strong at home. Hoping Ulster get the job done but won't be putting any cash on it.

                                                                                  Connacht vs Quins is a game we looked at as well. Initially favoured Quins but the more we looked at it the closer the line looked to correct tbh. Between Care's poor form, Mike Brown and Nick Evans both being below par against Gloucester and generally underwhelming results/performances the last few weeks I'm a bit wary of Quins at the moment. Add to that the fact that they're a team that's going to get a lot of public money (being top of the Aviva and whatnot) and so susceptible to line inflation more than most teams. The weather forecast is wet and breezy as well which will reduce the margin a bit, especially at the Sportsgrounds.

                                                                                  Another one we're probably going to end up staying away from although not 100% written off yet. @Emmet, 16 seems very high, would be interested to hear how you came to that.

                                                                                  @ciarrai - still too early in the year for me to be GAA betting. Hopefully by a couple of weeks into the league we'll have enough info to go on but for me it's too hard to gauge motivation, line ups etc to really be confident I'm getting value.

                                                                                  That said, there are a couple of futures bets still available that are massive value if you shop around with the intention of trading out in a couple of months time.

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    Connacht vs Quins is a game we looked at as well. Initially favoured Quins but the more we looked at it the closer the line looked to correct tbh. Between Care's poor form, Mike Brown and Nick Evans both being below par against Gloucester and generally underwhelming results/performances the last few weeks I'm a bit wary of Quins at the moment. Add to that the fact that they're a team that's going to get a lot of public money (being top of the Aviva and whatnot) and so susceptible to line inflation more than most teams. The weather forecast is wet and breezy as well which will reduce the margin a bit, especially at the Sportsgrounds

                                                                                    was kinda thinking that myself,ended up doing the unders 38.5 points,hopefully connacht will put it up to them,more of a intrest bet tbh.took a nice chunk of Toulouse -5,still plenty of it there,Which is a little worrying you would think that it would be well gone at this stage!

                                                                                    was also looking at the saints -5,not so sure now with all the goings on over there,blue square gone to -4 now!
                                                                                    Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      Northampton game is another where when we saw the line first we thought we'd be all over it but as the week wore on and we started hearing the news out of the NH camp it looks more and more like one to avoid as well.

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        Loving getting all the POVs on the games by the way, shame Sickpuppy is "away" for the next few days!

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                                          Loving getting all the POVs on the games by the way, shame Sickpuppy is "away" for the next few days!
                                                                                          Im back baby nice to hide though after Toulouse implosion.

                                                                                          After falling behind 7 nil comically they upped the pressure and raced into a 17 -7 lead.
                                                                                          In the acendancy should have drove on and won the game and covered the handicap.

                                                                                          Watched the Connacht game in pub so didnt see how it ran out.
                                                                                          A team full of that talent should have blown Gloucester away but unfortunatley didnt.

                                                                                          The last 3 or 4 games id agreat feeling and analysis about have been abject failures.

                                                                                          Tank of France to cover 19 pt handicap V italy opener of six nations esp if its a dry day

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            Any update lads? Really interesting log, would read again.

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              Originally posted by daire View Post
                                                                                              Any update lads? Really interesting log, would read again.
                                                                                              Hey yeah we're still working away - stopped updating when the Heineken Cup went on hiatus as that was giving most of the structure to the whole thing.

                                                                                              We'll take a look at starting this up again early next week with a new 100 unit bankroll.

                                                                                              We've got Super 15 starting which Alan's been doing a nice bit of work on and the GAA National League will be back next week as well which my handicapping of is getting there so probably a good time to get stuck in again.

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                updates on your weight loss also. interesting to hear how its going and how tough your finding it etc
                                                                                                GAA News Website

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                                                                                                  Log 2.0

                                                                                                  Right, as promised we're going to start posting here again. Starting off with a nice new 100 unit BR, hopefully we'll have some more success.

                                                                                                  FYI, would expect to see a fair bit of rugby stuff in here with the Super Rugby having kicked off last week and the 6N and Celtic league in swing and the HEC still to be concluded.

                                                                                                  As well as that I'll be doing a lot of NFL (GAA) handicapping and posting my thoughts for as many games as possible in an attempt to sharpen up over the coming weeks.

                                                                                                  As always, tips, criticisms, advice etc. are very strongly encouraged!

                                                                                                  Let's go.

                                                                                                  Last edited by Keane; 27-02-12, 22:37.

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                                                                                                    Starting BR

                                                                                                    Initial Bank: 100 units
                                                                                                    Current Bank: 87.84 units
                                                                                                    Profit: -12.16 units

                                                                                                    At Risk: 12.16 units

                                                                                                    Bets In Play:
                                                                                                    Fermanagh to win the Ulster SFC - 2.5 units @50/1
                                                                                                    Donegal to win the Ulster SFC - 2.81 units @7/1
                                                                                                    Kildare to win the Leinster SFC - 3.33 units @ 7/2
                                                                                                    France to win the Six Nations - 2.04 units @ 7/4
                                                                                                    LA Clippers to win the Pacific Division (NBA) - 1.15 units @ 29/20

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                                                                                                      Just a bit of background on the GAA bets:
                                                                                                      • Fermanagh were extremely overpriced at 50/1 with B365 and VC for Ulster. They play Down in their first game after which they would only have to overcome the winners of Monaghan vs Antrim to make the final. By the time the Championship rolls around Fermanagh would be favourite in that prospective SF. Regardless, with the price having since come in as far as 25/1 (expect it to come in further) there will be ample opportunity to lay this off for a tidy profit.

                                                                                                      • Donegal were similarly overpriced for Ulster, this time by William Hill who had them at 7/1 compared to 7/2 best price everywhere else. I don't expect them to win the province at all as they're not the team they were last year for a variety of reasons and have a terrible draw, but again this is a good trading opportunity. Price currently stands at 5/1 after a very poor start to the NFL by Donegal, I believe they were still best price 7/2 before the losses in the last couple of games.

                                                                                                      • Kildare to win Leinster is one I'm not as mad about now as I was when I placed it originally. On paper, Kildare's squad looks really strong and my opinion was that with Dublin at 4/6 for Leinster (at the time) 7/2 had to represent value as I couldn't see a massive gap between the two. Their woeful start to the NFL (besides a fairly impressive first half performance in the opening game against Tyrone) has shaken my confidence in their quality - both of player and management - but I'm hopeful that we'll see a gradual gearing up throughout the NFL that will see the Leinster price shrink a bit more from the 10/3 still available currently. They played a challenge match down in Kerry at the weekend with guys like Mick Foley and Emmet Bolton seeing some game time, so expecting to see them playing a bigger part going forward which can only help.

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                                                                                                        VC have a free bet offer on the Shrewsbury vs Crawley game tonight (place a €10 bet in WDW market and get a free €10 bet in the England vs Holland game).

                                                                                                        A quick look on oddschecker shows VC are best price on the Crawley win so have gone for that. Nothing too exciting but can't be turning down free money after all.

                                                                                                        Initial Bank: 100 units
                                                                                                        Current Bank: 87.51 units
                                                                                                        Profit: -12.49 units

                                                                                                        At Risk: 12.49 units

                                                                                                        Bets In Play:
                                                                                                        Fermanagh to win the Ulster SFC - 2.5 units @50/1
                                                                                                        Donegal to win the Ulster SFC - 2.81 units @7/1
                                                                                                        Kildare to win the Leinster SFC - 3.33 units @ 7/2
                                                                                                        France to win the Six Nations - 2.04 units @ 7/4
                                                                                                        LA Clippers to win the Pacific Division (NBA) - 1.15 units @ 29/20
                                                                                                        Crawley to beat Shrewsbury (League 2) - 0.33 units @ 15/8

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                                                                                                          FU Crawley.

                                                                                                          Initial Bank: 100 units
                                                                                                          Current Bank: 87.51 units
                                                                                                          Profit: -12.49 units

                                                                                                          At Risk: 12.16 units

                                                                                                          Bets In Play:
                                                                                                          Fermanagh to win the Ulster SFC - 2.5 units @50/1
                                                                                                          Donegal to win the Ulster SFC - 2.81 units @7/1
                                                                                                          Kildare to win the Leinster SFC - 3.33 units @ 7/2
                                                                                                          France to win the Six Nations - 2.04 units @ 7/4
                                                                                                          LA Clippers to win the Pacific Division (NBA) - 1.15 units @ 29/20

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                                                                                                            Have put a decent bet on Tullamore -4.5 @5/6 vs Dublin Dragons in IAFA, based on Bubbleking's post here:

                                                                                                            Originally posted by Bubbleking View Post
                                                                                                            well a couple of reasons

                                                                                                            1. the Dragons are God awful - they are a bunch of old dudes who just play for the craic. They lost every game last season and the narrowest margin was roughly about 30 points. Any decent player they have leaves after a season to join someone else

                                                                                                            2. The reason the score is -4.5 is because its hard to set a line for tullamore because they are coming up from 8's (the division below where we play its only 8 a side as opposed to 11) but they have dominated there and should have made the step up sooner. now this would concern me a small bit but..

                                                                                                            3. the Dragons played tullamore in a scrimmage game during the summer and lost by 24 points

                                                                                                            4. whoever sets the lines for PP doesnt really have a clue (as its a novelty market sort of) there is always loads of mistakes - for example UCD are roughly the same as Trinity yet Trinity are 14/1 to win the shamrock bowl and we are 50/1 (neither have a hope but thats besides the point) They took down that market because it was so shambolic

                                                                                                            basically I think its a good bet and have stuck what I could afford on it (which sadly isnt very much)
                                                                                                            Initial Bank: 100 units
                                                                                                            Current Bank: 83.51 units
                                                                                                            Profit: -16.49 units

                                                                                                            At Risk: 16.16 units

                                                                                                            Bets In Play:
                                                                                                            Fermanagh to win the Ulster SFC - 2.5 units @50/1
                                                                                                            Donegal to win the Ulster SFC - 2.81 units @7/1
                                                                                                            Kildare to win the Leinster SFC - 3.33 units @ 7/2
                                                                                                            France to win the Six Nations - 2.04 units @ 7/4
                                                                                                            LA Clippers to win the Pacific Division (NBA) - 1.15 units @ 29/20
                                                                                                            Tullamore -4.5 vs Dublin Dragons (IAFA) - 4 units @5/6

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                                                                                                              Wanting to take advantage of Paddy Power's Cheltenham offer I decided to take some advice from those who would seem to know a bit (here and here) and get some loot on Al Ferof.

                                                                                                              Initial Bank: 100 units
                                                                                                              Current Bank: 80.18 units
                                                                                                              Profit: -19.82 units

                                                                                                              At Risk: 19.49 units

                                                                                                              Bets In Play:
                                                                                                              Fermanagh to win the Ulster SFC - 2.5 units @50/1
                                                                                                              Donegal to win the Ulster SFC - 2.81 units @7/1
                                                                                                              Kildare to win the Leinster SFC - 3.33 units @ 7/2
                                                                                                              France to win the Six Nations - 2.04 units @ 7/4
                                                                                                              LA Clippers to win the Pacific Division (NBA) - 1.15 units @29/20
                                                                                                              Tullamore -4.5 vs Dublin Dragons (IAFA) - 4 units @5/6
                                                                                                              Al Ferof to win Arkle Chase - 3.33 units @5/1 (PP Money back special)

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                                                                                                                Got a couple of football bets on as well.

                                                                                                                When the prices went up initially Boyles were considerably out of line offering 6/5 about Kildare away to Meath in the NFL (21/20 next best from B365, others had them odds against as low as 8/11 with Ladbrokes).

                                                                                                                It's obviously tough enough to assess just how much value a selection in the NFL is without seeing a teamsheet, but with several of Kildare's big names having had gametime in a challenge against Kerry last weekend it would seem likely that we'll see the Lillies put out a more Championship looking team for this local derby. Meath are a touch inflated after their demolition of what was a pretty abject Westmeath team, while Kildare's weak early displays have them a touch undervalued IMHO.

                                                                                                                Boyles have pulled themselves in to 11/10 so it looks like there's been a bit of money for Kildare at 6/5 which is always a nice sign (don't think it was my money moving the line).

                                                                                                                To go with that, I've trebled Kildare with Dublin and Galway. Again, without team news there's no point really delving hugely into the guts of handicapping these games, it's just a case of Boyles looking slightly too big on two prices.

                                                                                                                Using the fact that they're considerably overpriced on the Kildare game as a multiplier to create something worthwhile from their slightly high prices in the other two games is good practice, although it obviously increases variance.

                                                                                                                Initial Bank: 100 units
                                                                                                                Current Bank: 77.18 units
                                                                                                                Profit: -22.82 units

                                                                                                                At Risk: 22.49 units

                                                                                                                Bets In Play:
                                                                                                                Fermanagh to win the Ulster SFC - 2.5 units @50/1
                                                                                                                Donegal to win the Ulster SFC - 2.81 units @7/1
                                                                                                                Kildare to win the Leinster SFC - 3.33 units @ 7/2
                                                                                                                France to win the Six Nations - 2.04 units @ 7/4
                                                                                                                LA Clippers to win the Pacific Division (NBA) - 1.15 units @29/20
                                                                                                                Tullamore -4.5 vs Dublin Dragons (IAFA) - 4 units @5/6
                                                                                                                Al Ferof to win Arkle Chase - 3.33 units @5/1 (PP Money back special)
                                                                                                                Kildare vs Meath (NFL D2) - 2 units @6/5
                                                                                                                Kildare, Dublin, Galway treble (NFL D1/D2) - 1 unit @2.76/1
                                                                                                                Last edited by Keane; 28-02-12, 15:30.

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                                                                                                                  Have put three units on Miami Heat to win the NBA outright. 13/8 still available with VC and PP which is somewhat on the high side (only 2.3 on SBO, small amounts ~2.5 on Betfair) and pretty much guaranteed to shorten when the playoffs roll around so looking at it as a trading opportunity.

                                                                                                                  Initial Bank: 100 units
                                                                                                                  Current Bank: 74.18 units
                                                                                                                  Profit: -25.82 units

                                                                                                                  At Risk: 25.49 units

                                                                                                                  Bets In Play:
                                                                                                                  Fermanagh to win the Ulster SFC - 2.5 units @50/1
                                                                                                                  Donegal to win the Ulster SFC - 2.81 units @7/1
                                                                                                                  Kildare to win the Leinster SFC - 3.33 units @ 7/2
                                                                                                                  France to win the Six Nations - 2.04 units @ 7/4
                                                                                                                  LA Clippers to win the Pacific Division (NBA) - 1.15 units @29/20
                                                                                                                  Tullamore -4.5 vs Dublin Dragons (IAFA) - 4 units @5/6
                                                                                                                  Al Ferof to win Arkle Chase - 3.33 units @5/1 (PP Money back special)
                                                                                                                  Kildare vs Meath (NFL D2) - 2 units @6/5
                                                                                                                  Kildare, Dublin, Galway treble (NFL D1/D2) - 1 unit @2.76/1
                                                                                                                  Miami to win the NBA - 3 units @13/8

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                                                                                                                    sbo limits on NBA are terrible. Id pay more attention to Pinnacle or the american firms

                                                                                                                    Can you update us on your weight loss?

                                                                                                                    Others may find it motivational to see how your going - and Id love the sweat also, esp as it looks like im going to lose!
                                                                                                                    GAA News Website

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                                                                                                                      Originally posted by Semibluff View Post
                                                                                                                      sbo limits on NBA are terrible. Id pay more attention to Pinnacle or the american firms
                                                                                                                      Can you link me to NBA futures on Pinnacle? I couldn't find them after trawling through the site and even a link google found redirected me to the Pinny main page

                                                                                                                      Originally posted by Semibluff View Post
                                                                                                                      Can you update us on your weight loss?

                                                                                                                      Others may find it motivational to see how your going - and Id love the sweat also, esp as it looks like im going to lose!
                                                                                                                      My weight this morning on the same scales I weighed in on originally was 75kg on the dot, leaving me about three and a half weeks to drop about three and a half kilos properly (i.e. not water weight) at a minimum.

                                                                                                                      I've been crap gym-wise this week, but the diet is still spotless. Really need to get motivated to get back in the gym or I'll be in trouble.

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                                                                                                                        Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                                                                        Really need to get motivated to get back in the gym or I'll be in trouble.
                                                                                                                        Nahhh


                                                                                                                        Dont bother
                                                                                                                        GAA News Website

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                                                                                                                          Ok so for Ire V France on Sunday.

                                                                                                                          Since Ireland have the Same XV as the initial French fixture our analysis hasnt changed much.
                                                                                                                          Expect Ireland to be attacked out wide down Earls channel a lot by Rougerie / Fofana. SOB has been relatively quiet for Ireland so far. Harinordoquy at 8 puts him at his strongest position with Bonnaire and Dusatoir edging the BR battle in Frances favour. I also expect Hari to really test Best's darts in the lineout. The french will take a page from the welsh book and run and ruck blindside all day so as to give the backs maximum field width to stretch ireland when the ball is thrown out wide

                                                                                                                          Up front the scrums should match up but if France can hold out for a longer push which could put ireland under pressure.

                                                                                                                          Medard is a loss at FB and the return of Poitrenaud means that Kearney will prob be the victor of the two there. Expect part of irelands strategy is to kick to put Poitrenaud under pressure.

                                                                                                                          Overall France have ireland outmatched and with a bigger more powerful backline,it could be another embarrassing day in Paris

                                                                                                                          We have France -7 @evens for 2 units


                                                                                                                          Ireland have tended to usually concede early in this fixture by not keeping up with the French intensity and going in at half time in tatters(even though they normally seem to claw back a bit in the 2nd half). That why we think at HT/FT bet for France/France @ 21/25 on betfair is a value bet which we may lay off before the game. There was a small bit of 1.89 on betfair while the best from the bookies was 1.67

                                                                                                                          We have France/France @21/25 for 2 units

                                                                                                                          Initial Bank: 100 units
                                                                                                                          Current Bank: 70.18 units
                                                                                                                          Profit: -29.82 units

                                                                                                                          At Risk: 29.49 units

                                                                                                                          Bets In Play:
                                                                                                                          Fermanagh to win the Ulster SFC - 2.5 units @50/1
                                                                                                                          Donegal to win the Ulster SFC - 2.81 units @7/1
                                                                                                                          Kildare to win the Leinster SFC - 3.33 units @ 7/2
                                                                                                                          France to win the Six Nations - 2.04 units @ 7/4
                                                                                                                          LA Clippers to win the Pacific Division (NBA) - 1.15 units @29/20
                                                                                                                          Tullamore -4.5 vs Dublin Dragons (IAFA) - 4 units @5/6
                                                                                                                          Al Ferof to win Arkle Chase - 3.33 units @5/1 (PP Money back special)
                                                                                                                          Kildare vs Meath (NFL D2) - 2 units @6/5
                                                                                                                          Kildare, Dublin, Galway treble (NFL D1/D2) - 1 unit @2.76/1
                                                                                                                          Miami to win the NBA - 3 units @13/8
                                                                                                                          France -7 v Ire @evens for 2 units
                                                                                                                          France/France HT/FT @21/25 for 2 units
                                                                                                                          Last edited by Keane; 05-03-12, 13:20.

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